Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[UmerIdrees]

I was keeping a close watch on who wins the toss. And as expected Faf du Plessis lost it (the last time he won a toss was many months ago) and for the Indian captain, the decision was very easy. He chose to bat. A few months back, one cricketer made a suggestion to give the advantage of the toss to the visiting team. That could reduce the incidence of one-sided matches like these.

You would probably know that it is only Pakistan team who give any advantages to the visitors. 

None of the teams give any sort of advantages to the visitors. Even during the recent series between Pakistan and Sri Lanka, the former enjoyed the home advantage and that was obvious during the ODI matches. The proposal was to give the visiting team the option to decide whether they want to bat first or bowl first, rather than going for the toss.

I hope you know the meaning of sarcasm ?
This was what i meant. Nothing to get serious about. 

[eaLiTy]

I was keeping a close watch on who wins the toss. And as expected Faf du Plessis lost it (the last time he won a toss was many months ago) and for the Indian captain, the decision was very easy. He chose to bat. A few months back, one cricketer made a suggestion to give the advantage of the toss to the visiting team. That could reduce the incidence of one-sided matches like these.

If Faf du Plessis is not able to win the toss then let the South African board change the captain instead of changing the logical rules of the sport  .
When Australia was winning and defeating all the teams in dominating fashion i never heard these suggestions but now India is destroying all the teams visiting and hence we have a new suggestion .
I know that Pakistan already tried this option of giving the visiting team to choose in domestic first class matches but i do not want that to change as winning a toss is an integral part in a match in cricket.

[teosanru]

Small data of Win loss ratio since 2014.

Interestingly Windies looks okay when they lost the toss, another interesting data is Australia is the only one team who doesn't bother what is the outcome of toss. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Srilanka looks bad when they lose toss. India's dominance could stop easily if they lose a toss, Same with Kiwis and Proteas

Quite Interesting I think it's because India has generally chosen to bat first after winning the toss and batting definitely is their strength. In batting second they aren't able to make it a low scoring match by bowling out the other team thereby most of the matches end up with draws. Interestingly I found out that after comparing 1980-2014 with 2014 till now test cricket has become more batting intensive and teams batting first are winning more matches. Have a look at it here. This is the data from 1980-2014




While here is the data from 2014-till now



See how teams batting first have such a high win percentage of wins while batting first. Also see how toss winning means winning match in general.

[Sithara007]

I was keeping a close watch on who wins the toss. And as expected Faf du Plessis lost it (the last time he won a toss was many months ago) and for the Indian captain, the decision was very easy. He chose to bat. A few months back, one cricketer made a suggestion to give the advantage of the toss to the visiting team. That could reduce the incidence of one-sided matches like these.

If Faf du Plessis is not able to win the toss then let the South African board change the captain instead of changing the logical rules of the sport  .
When Australia was winning and defeating all the teams in dominating fashion i never heard these suggestions but now India is destroying all the teams visiting and hence we have a new suggestion .
I know that Pakistan already tried this option of giving the visiting team to choose in domestic first class matches but i do not want that to change as winning a toss is an integral part in a match in cricket.

Actually this is a very good suggestion. If the toss is removed and the visiting team decides whether to bat first or bowl first, then there is no advantage for the home side to prepare sub-standard pitches. In such cases, we would no longer have dust bowls in which the spinners have unfair advantage. Teams such as South Africa and New Zealand would refrain from making pitches that give undue advantage to their pacers.

My personal opinion is that international matches should be played on neutral surfaces, where all the three departments (batting, pace bowling and spin) gets equal amount of support. And nowadays it is hard to find tracks where pace bowlers get good support. Earlier we had grounds such as Kingsmead and WACA which supported seam and bounce. But these grounds have also become batting friendly now.

[RapTarX]

Pujara get flopped once again, the great wall of team India.

See how teams batting first have such a high win percentage of wins while batting first. Also see how toss winning means winning match in general.

This has something related to what Sithara said. Having no toss and giving the advantage to visitors team would make sense and could have an equivalent pitch for both team. In all matches, home team get the advantage.

[bryant.coleman]

See how teams batting first have such a high win percentage of wins while batting first. Also see how toss winning means winning match in general

This has something related to what Sithara said. Having no toss and giving the advantage to visitors team would make sense and could have an equivalent pitch for both team. In all matches, home team get the advantage.

Whenever a test series occurs in the Indian subcontinent, this issue of home advantage is raised. And it is not just India. The other Asian teams (Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh) are also known to prepare either flat or turning tracks to give them the advantage. Recently, Bangladesh made a sub-standard pitch at Chittagong, during their test match against Afghanistan. And ironically, it went against them as the Afghans managed to win the match by a massive margin of 224 runs.

Now coming back to the current match, both the Indian batsmen (Rahane and Rohit) look very confident today. Apart from Rabada, rest of the South African bowlers are looking teethless. The 4th wicket partnership is inching towards the 200 mark and if the Proteas want to give a fight, then they need to take some quick wickets now.

[eaLiTy]

Actually this is a very good suggestion. If the toss is removed and the visiting team decides whether to bat first or bowl first, then there is no advantage for the home side to prepare sub-standard pitches. In such cases, we would no longer have dust bowls in which the spinners have unfair advantage. Teams such as South Africa and New Zealand would refrain from making pitches that give undue advantage to their pacers.

In the history of cricket home teams make pitches which favors their strength and if the visiting team has the prowess to challenge that then we saw great battles in Test cricket, Australian and England pitches were seeming pitches in the 70 s and the West Indies had some the worlds best fast bowlers and they started winning because of their bowling quality and had some legendary batsman, when Australia was dominating they had some world class fast bowlers and then a legendary spinner in Shane Warne and hence they dominated everywhere, even if India now prepares green pitches there is no way an visiting team will defeat them as India have some world class fast bowlers too as it is not the spinners than are winning matches for India in the past few years.

Now coming back to the current match, both the Indian batsmen (Rahane and Rohit) look very confident today. Apart from Rabada, rest of the South African bowlers are looking teethless. The 4th wicket partnership is inching towards the 200 mark and if the Proteas want to give a fight, then they need to take some quick wickets now.

Rohit Sharma is in supreme form and he is scoring century after century for his lost days in Test cricket as this will be his best series in his Test career  .
Rahane is nearing his century and South Africa seems clueless on how to tackle the Indian players, there is no way South Africa is winning this match too as India is playing with three spinners and there is no inform batsman in their line up to challenge the Indian bowling line up.

[Sithara007]

Rohit Sharma is in supreme form and he is scoring century after century for his lost days in Test cricket as this will be his best series in his Test career  .
Rahane is nearing his century and South Africa seems clueless on how to tackle the Indian players, there is no way South Africa is winning this match too as India is playing with three spinners and there is no inform batsman in their line up to challenge the Indian bowling line up.

LOL... it is getting really depressing for the South Africans out there. Both Ajinkya Rahane and Rohit Sharma have scored centuries and now the partnership has reached 241 runs. The way these two batsmen treat the South African bowlers is also surprising. They are just smashing them all around the park, and for the morning session the run rate stands at 4.40 per over.

And the South Africans need to first blame their selectors. They dropped Senuran Muthusamy and included Dane Piedt in the squad, and till now Piedt has conceded 50 runs of his 7 overs (at a rate of 7.1 runs per over). The other spinner (George Linde) looks OK, but he is also not able to trouble the batsmen. I won't be surprised if India gets to 600 by the end of the day.

[akhjob]

Update:  Rahane c Klaasen b George Linde 115(192)

Both Rohit and Rahane looked comfortable with the ball and have been scoring like crazy earlier today. I think they are execting rain interference in the match and looking for a big score as early as possible. Anybody expecting a draw?



I am looking to bet 5-10$ on a draw based on how it's going to end today.

[JSRAW]

Small data of Win loss ratio since 2014.

~snip~

Quite Interesting I think it's because India has generally chosen to bat first after winning the toss and batting definitely is their strength. In batting second they aren't able to make it a low scoring match by bowling out the other team thereby most of the matches end up with draws. Interestingly I found out that after comparing 1980-2014 with 2014 till now test cricket has become more batting intensive and teams batting first are winning more matches. Have a look at it here. This is the data from 1980-2014

~Edited~

Its sin to compare this era batsmen to 90s generation, they were miles ahead of the recent crop. Not to mention bowling standard went down the drain. and if talk about 70s - 80s then its blasphemy.   Test cricket has changed drastically. In 70s bowlers used to bowl 4-5 bouncers in one over and there was no rule of no bowl when crossing a line, what that mean is 22 yard pitch could turn into 18-19 yard and it applies for each and every country.

[eaLiTy]

Piedt has conceded 50 runs of his 7 overs (at a rate of 7.1 runs per over).

Piedt was about to get his wicket of Rahane but the wicket keeper dropped the stumping chance.

Update:  Rahane c Klaasen b George Linde 115(192)

After scoring the century Rahane was trying to increase the tempo and the South African wicket keep missed a stumping chance and i knew he will get out eventually and got cut cutting the spinner straight to the wicket keep a couple of overs later.  

Both Rohit and Rahane looked comfortable with the ball and have been scoring like crazy earlier today. I think they are execting rain interference in the match and looking for a big score as early as possible. Anybody expecting a draw?

I am not expecting a draw but if South Africa can bat for a long time then it is possible, the pitch is favoring spin and there are foot marks for left handed batsman in the pitch and expect the bowl to spin square after pitching in that area and South Africa have some left handed batsman and that will be trouble for them.

Its sin to compare this era batsmen to 90s generation, they were miles ahead of the recent crop. Not to mention bowling standard went down the drain. and if talk about 70s - 80s then its blasphemy.  

True, you cannot compare batsman of any generation but still Bradman is the best batsman ever considering his average of 99.9 when bowlers were dominating is ridiculous as no one come close to that.

[akhjob]

@JSRAW, Just saw that you became a Hero Member. Congrats on becoming a hero 

Piedt was about to get his wicket of Rahane but the wicket keeper dropped the stumping chance.

After scoring the century Rahane was trying to increase the tempo and the South African wicket keep missed a stumping chance and i knew he will get out eventually and got cut cutting the spinner straight to the wicket keep a couple of overs later.  

I am not expecting a draw but if South Africa can bat for a long time then it is possible, the pitch is favoring spin and there are foot marks for left handed batsman in the pitch and expect the bowl to spin square after pitching in that area and South Africa have some left handed batsman and that will be trouble for them.
~skipped few~

Yeah, thats true they did give a lot of free boundaries to Rahane and above all that missed stumping  Missed yesterday's match but today he was directing the ball to all the corners of the stadium. I have never seen him so aggressive in a Test match. BTW, I am also not expecting a draw, if India manages a score above 500+ runs and take 1 or 2 SA wickets by today. But considering that there might be chances of rain interference today and tomorrow based on the weather forecast at Ranchi and probably a drizzle on the last day, I'll be tempted to hope for a draw and bet on it if SA didn't lose 2+ wickets before the first 30-40 overs

[virasog]

Update:  Rahane c Klaasen b George Linde 115(192)

Both Rohit and Rahane looked comfortable with the ball and have been scoring like crazy earlier today. I think they are execting rain interference in the match and looking for a big score as early as possible. Anybody expecting a draw?



I am looking to bet 5-10$ on a draw based on how it's going to end today.

If you have watched the last Test match, the situation was almost similar where Indian team scored big score in the first innings and SA failed to chase.
In the first test match also, South Africa team collapsed in the last innings.
So it will be a risk betting on the draw. Either bet on India or wait some more time until placing a bet.

[eaLiTy]

But considering that there might be chances of rain interference today and tomorrow based on the weather forecast at Ranchi and probably a drizzle on the last day, I'll be tempted to hope for a draw and bet on it if SA didn't lose 2+ wickets before the first 30-40 overs

If there is a rain interruption in the next two days then it is a possibility that there will be a draw, now Rohit Sharma lost his wicket by trying to increase the strike rate and he scored his double century with a six and that resembles Virender Sehwag and all the commentators we talking about that because today is his birthday and he changed the way how Test openers should play cricket. Now with the new ball in hand South Africa can put pressure on the two new batsman in the crease and will see how things will go.

[JSRAW]

Its sin to compare this era batsmen to 90s generation, they were miles ahead of the recent crop. Not to mention bowling standard went down the drain. and if talk about 70s - 80s then its blasphemy.  

True, you cannot compare batsman of any generation but still Bradman is the best batsman ever considering his average of 99.9 when bowlers were dominating is ridiculous as no one come close to that.

Sir Bradman was beast but his critics can make a very solid argument about his record average of 99.94%. he played Test match in only 2 countries, its very simple but impressive argument, its fascinating for mental gymnastic.

@akhjob : thanks bro and everyone

[Haunebu]

Cool statistics. I always did know that the toss mattered to some extent, but never knew how much and this graph perfectly helped me understand which team is more dependent on the toss(Pakistan etc) and which team plays well irrespective of the toss result(India etc). Congratulations btw and welcome to the hero club JSRAW.

Its sin to compare this era batsmen to 90s generation, they were miles ahead of the recent crop.

I disagree here. Legends are produced in every generation and I feel that every one of them are equally impressive irrespective of which generation they are from. Every one of them entertained us in some way or another and this is all that matters at the end of the day.

[JSRAW]

I disagree here. Legends are produced in every generation and I feel that every one of them are equally impressive irrespective of which generation they are from. Every one of them entertained us in some way or another and this is all that matters at the end of the day.

Thanks Bhai

Well i agree on bold part, That's why i always avoid comparing players from different era because its not logical. but having said that if we get into mental gymnastic with hypothetical scenario.

Old rules of Test + Pitches + Deadly bowlers then its different ball game. In modern cricket only handful of players comes into my mind such as Kohli, Smith, Williamson and in some extent Joe Root who are worthy to watch in Test . Warner comes in my mind too but he looked different batsman in recent time.

And when we talk about complete batsman in Modern era ( Test +ODI+ T-20) then Only Virat.

[7788bitcoin]

South Africa picked three wickets and they have taken the wickets of Rohit Sharma and Rahane finally but the damage is already done and India scored over 400 runs and now Jadeja and Ashwin is in the crease and they both have centuries in Test cricket and if they are not able to pick those wickets then it will be another frustration session for the bowlers, i am impressed with the depth in Indian batting line up .

[teosanru]

South Africa picked three wickets and they have taken the wickets of Rohit Sharma and Rahane finally but the damage is already done and India scored over 400 runs and now Jadeja and Ashwin is in the crease and they both have centuries in Test cricket and if they are not able to pick those wickets then it will be another frustration session for the bowlers, i am impressed with the depth in Indian batting line up .

I think the batting depth is the thing which keeps India on such a great platform in the world cricket we are just never out of batsmen.

I disagree here. Legends are produced in every generation and I feel that every one of them are equally impressive irrespective of which generation they are from. Every one of them entertained us in some way or another and this is all that matters at the end of the day.

Thanks Bhai

Well i agree on bold part, That's why i always avoid comparing players from different era because its not logical. but having said that if we get into mental gymnastic with hypothetical scenario.

Old rules of Test + Pitches + Deadly bowlers then its different ball game. In modern cricket only handful of players comes into my mind such as Kohli, Smith, Williamson and in some extent Joe Root who are worthy to watch in Test . Warner comes in my mind too but he looked different batsman in recent time.

And when we talk about complete batsman in Modern era ( Test +ODI+ T-20) then Only Virat.

I think another thing that has changed a lot is maybe generation we people are generally more attracted towards the players whom we saw while getting out of our childhood. I mean when sometimes I see highlight of earlier matches I realize that batting was not that difficult at that time it was just that there were no computers so batsmen couldn't prepare their shots as homework by watching deliveries of their opponents which is clearly easier now.

[JSRAW]

Rohit Sharma 6 sixes in his 255 balls inning
Umesh Yadav 5 sixes in his 10 balls inning  

India 497/ 9 declare

South Africa missed the opportunity to wrap up Indian innings cheaply  Now tough time for them at least first 20 overs and we still have 35+ overs to go.