Coin Days Destroyed and Leading Price Action?

[adaseb]

Looks like today there was a block which had a relatively large Coin days destroyed transaction. Basically it was block 586850

The transaction was this:
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/tx/852c0016b3e462e17b6810dd7d203f66a7789c4b485f305e66cd40f7dabff0a8

Basically 32,489 BTC was sent to https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/39pvSqfNcUosc8RGVWxyzKM3ny96a3uSkW

Looking at the spent outputs, it looks like they aren't touched since October 2015.

It appears it might be Tim Draper auction but why would they not touch these coins back in Q4 2017 or at least sell them at $14K a month ago instead of selling now?

Wondering if CDD is a reliable indicator of future market sell-offs?

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[figmentofmyass]

Basically 32,489 BTC was sent to https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/39pvSqfNcUosc8RGVWxyzKM3ny96a3uSkW

Looking at the spent outputs, it looks like they aren't touched since October 2015.

It appears it might be Tim Draper auction but why would they not touch these coins back in Q4 2017 or at least sell them at $14K a month ago instead of selling now?

Wondering if CDD is a reliable indicator of future market sell-offs?

years ago, people used to speculate about days destroyed a lot. IIRC, it's been shown to be a very unreliable indicator.

and that makes sense too. unless we can see massive amounts of coins entering exchanges, there should be no connection to price. someone is just moving coins, not necessarily selling them.

if it's tim draper, he's not selling---not for fiat money anyway. the guy bought into the 2014 bear market and is aiming for $250k by 2023. i don't see him selling into this baby consolidation in the middle of a bull market.

[BitHodler]

In terms of recent activity (last 12ish months), we have had multiple exchanges that brought their 'ancient' pre-2013 addresses to life-- likely to redistribute these coins and claim the wide variety of shitforks for an extra payday.

It by no means translates into any sort of noteworthy price action, unless someone finds an old wallet.dat file with thousands of coins in it and utilizes the market-sell option. Not likely but still possible. It's a free market at the end of the day.

[1Referee]

It appears it might be Tim Draper auction but why would they not touch these coins back in Q4 2017 or at least sell them at $14K a month ago instead of selling now?

It's impossible to tell who these addresses belong to, but it wouldn't surprise me if the coins are moved to another address for the sake of liquidating BCash, BSV, BTG, etc.

Don't forget that a lot of people during the split thought it would be a safe bet to hold the forks just in case they take over Bitcoin, but after such a long period of time and the poor performance of these scams they gained enough confidence to unload them.

If the coins are being moved to be sold then I only welcome that. The more of these old hands unload their coins the more distributed the coins become, and the higher the base value of these coins becomes. People who bought their coins under $100 don't really care if it's $9000 they sell it or $14,000. It's a massive profit either way.

[justdimin]

I guess from what I can see that is just 300k+ money, that wouldn't change much in price anyway. We are talking about a market that is over 60 billion dollars in volume and even bitcoin has billions of dollars in volume so it would be naive to think that 300k sold would make much of a difference.

We already have days where people sell hundreds of millions of dollars while others buy a bit less and we drop 10%-20% in a single day (or in couple of days) where do you really see that this would fit in with dropping the price if millions of dollars are making difference? That is why it wouldn't matter if this was sold in one single exchange and all together to make it look like a dump, it is just too small to make a big difference, the worst that could happen would be starting a wave of sell but it is not enough even for that.

[BrewMaster]

it is a good indicator only if you could associate a transaction with a sell. and since in bitcoin we can never do that for sure, the coin days destroyed becomes useless. it is basically the same as those topics that are created here from time to time where someone finds a big transaction for the first time in his life and thinks it is the end of price!
not to mention that day trading whales who have super active wallets are affecting the market a lot more than a one time seller selling a large amount of his old coins once.

[Thirdspace]

Wondering if CDD is a reliable indicator of future market sell-offs?

it is a good indicator only if you could associate a transaction with a sell. and since in bitcoin we can never do that for sure, the coin days destroyed becomes useless.

yes, also if it was OTC and never entered exchange then it won't affect market price
a significant increase in sell volume all across exchanges will be a better indicator

I guess from what I can see that is just 300k+ money, ...

you're missing a few zeros 32,489 BTC ~ $300m+, millions not thousands