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Author Topic: Does card counting really work in Blackjack?  (Read 367 times)
Spaffin
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August 06, 2019, 07:03:16 PM
 #41

The main ones have good enough memory and be able to count quite well.  If you do not lose sight of all those cards that have already been visually fixed, then you have a much better chance of predicting the further development of events in this game.  Therefore, the calculation is very important if the gambler knows how to use it efficiently.

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August 08, 2019, 07:59:11 PM
Merited by bones261 (2)
 #42

Let's stop with the ignorant replies and break it down.
Also, when a casino backs off a card counter, they do allow them to cash in their chips. Otherwise, that would be theft on their part. Of course, the casino can make you whip out your ID, in order to be "compliant" with AML laws...
The casino's way of preventing card counters from returning is to ban them from the establishment. Though card counting is not itself illegal (it's just math, like basic strategy) trespassing is. And they will enforce that against you if you are caught. Now, there are ways to reduce the chances of being caught.

Your drinking of alcohol is actually beneficial for masking the counting, though if you're inexperienced it will highlight the thinking between cards if you take too long. Drinkers are less likely to be caught due to how inebriation causes cognitive decline. For heavyweights, though... you're in luck.

The other important thing is to bet consistently. When you arrive at a high true count because of one or two hands, you should never suddenly raise your wager. This attracts very unwanted suspicion and calls attention to how you play. Now, if you're a volatile gambler throughout the deck even when the count is low (or negative) then there will generally be less heat. One effective way of increasing your bet subtly is to spread to multiple seats if you are able. Individual hand bet increases will make your total increase with less visual impact than if you were to stack it on one hand. Moreover, spreading to multiple seats means that within a given hand, your chances improve. You're able to bet a significant amount more when you have multiple seats (I believe it's up to 25% with four simultaneous hands)

It does perplex me that casinos have taken measures against card counting if it doesn't work, though. I even had the experience of having my bet pushed back and informed by the pit boss that I could play any game other than blackjack. If card counting is indeed a bunch of bullshit, I am clueless why casinos would prohibit me from playing, and apparently have now implemented continuous shuffling.
Contrary to popular belief, hampering card counting with continuous shuffles is worse for the casino in the long term than just letting the card counters take a small %. Continuous shuffles in-between a deck for regular players slows play down significantly and is costly to the casino. You have less total wagered across the aggregate of all blackjack players, not just the card counters.

A) Inability to quit. I'm sure after being awake for 24 hours plus, my card counting abilities were probably hampered.
B) Drinking alcohol.
C) I may have been making more errors in my counting than I want to admit.
Extensive practice solves this. PM me later some time Smiley

D) My bankroll was too small for the level of betting that I was doing.
Bankroll is a very important topic when it comes to marginal advantages. Unless you're playing single deck, it's going to be very difficult to make money with a small bankroll. If you're only betting in the single digits, you're going to make minimum wage, at best.

E) In order to hide my card counting, I usually only had a spread of 1-4 units. Perhaps this is too small for card counting to work.
This depends on how you wager depending on the count, and what system you use. I believe you used a Hi-Lo strategy, which is simple to understand. However, more advanced strategies are not that difficult to learn given some effort.

Cheers.

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August 08, 2019, 08:25:04 PM
 #43

I used to know of a barman who watched people losing on machines and then wait till the place was empty to then collect the now profitable slots return some of the cash deposited.

Huh. Didn't know there were slot machines whose odds changed when people were losing. Well, you learn something new every day I suppose.

I don't think there is one though. I know slot machines are the worst way to go to a casino if you want to win some. There's a probability that you will win the game and not some few cashbacks into you but its really at random. Slot machines really don't have a threshold where if it reach it suddenly becomes more profitable at the end, so in theory even if that "barman" is waiting for his turn on that slot machine it doesn't really increase his chances of winning the jackpot. Still card games like Blackjack or Baccarat where you can decide on where your money will really go.

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August 08, 2019, 08:39:55 PM
 #44

I don't think there is one though. I know slot machines are the worst way to go to a casino if you want to win some. There's a probability that you will win the game and not some few cashbacks into you but its really at random. Slot machines really don't have a threshold where if it reach it suddenly becomes more profitable at the end, so in theory even if that "barman" is waiting for his turn on that slot machine it doesn't really increase his chances of winning the jackpot. Still card games like Blackjack or Baccarat where you can decide on where your money will really go.
The only way to game a slot machine is to wait until a jackpot pushes the ev into the positives. Unless the slot machine is rigged, the base house edge remains the same and play has no effect upon the results.

When it comes to slots, the edge will usually be at least 2%. Most of the time, even progressive jackpot slots need values of multiple millions for it to be profitable. Smiley

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August 08, 2019, 09:00:11 PM
 #45

The casino's way of preventing card counters from returning is to ban them from the establishment. Though card counting is not itself illegal (it's just math, like basic strategy) trespassing is. And they will enforce that against you if you are caught. Now, there are ways to reduce the chances of being caught.

Your drinking of alcohol is actually beneficial for masking the counting, though if you're inexperienced it will highlight the thinking between cards if you take too long. Drinkers are less likely to be caught due to how inebriation causes cognitive decline. For heavyweights, though... you're in luck.

The other important thing is to bet consistently. When you arrive at a high true count because of one or two hands, you should never suddenly raise your wager. This attracts very unwanted suspicion and calls attention to how you play. Now, if you're a volatile gambler throughout the deck even when the count is low (or negative) then there will generally be less heat. One effective way of increasing your bet subtly is to spread to multiple seats if you are able. Individual hand bet increases will make your total increase with less visual impact than if you were to stack it on one hand. Moreover, spreading to multiple seats means that within a given hand, your chances improve. You're able to bet a significant amount more when you have multiple seats (I believe it's up to 25% with four simultaneous hands)

     I quit drinking over a decade ago and don't intend to touch the stuff again. So I won't be able to use that as cover going forward. I suppose that I could order mocktales; but I doubt that is going to fool anybody. Also, in order to play multiple hands, I would have to visit the gambling town near me at less busy hours. I still have a 9 to 5 job, so the times that I could go are the same as most other people.

Contrary to popular belief, hampering card counting with continuous shuffles is worse for the casino in the long term than just letting the card counters take a small %. Continuous shuffles in-between a deck for regular players slows play down significantly and is costly to the casino. You have less total wagered across the aggregate of all blackjack players, not just the card counters.
I have played games with shuffle machines. It seems that it makes the game go faster, since the dealer does not need to take time to shuffle. Just but the recently played deck in the machine and remove the other decks, that are already shuffled.  I haven't played a game with continuous shuffling, though. However, I am certain it is pretty fast and automated.


Bankroll is a very important topic when it comes to marginal advantages. Unless you're playing single deck, it's going to be very difficult to make money with a small bankroll. If you're only betting in the single digits, you're going to make minimum wage, at best.
Unfortunately, the casino town near to where I live is limited stakes. So the maximum bet at any table is $100.00.

This depends on how you wager depending on the count, and what system you use. I believe you used a Hi-Lo strategy, which is simple to understand. However, more advanced strategies are not that difficult to learn given some effort.

Cheers.

My strategy was either Hi-Opt 1 with an ace side count or Hi-Lo. I really never tried the other strategies. However, even when I tried the Hi-Opt 2, I found myself losing my count because old habits die hard and I would count the 5 as -1 instead of -2.  Cheesy In fact, I am so entrenched with the Hi-Opt 1 count, that I forget to count the 2's when trying Hi-Lo instead.

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August 09, 2019, 11:59:36 PM
 #46

For most people you should tell them card counting does not work because the vast majority will be too incompetent to conduct the system correctly.   Screwing up the slight advantage ruins the whole concept really.  
   Its not a gift or really cheating, its a return on controlled calculations of known variables.   When you reduce the unknowns in a gamble you will always increase the chances, thats why many poker players are really quick reads on types of people and their likely plays.
   If you can read people reasonably well in unbiased observant manner then its maybe worth trying poker.   I'd say this as a skill is more probable then what card counting is made out to be, plus the casino doesnt mind if you do well vs others afaik.

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August 10, 2019, 06:29:08 PM
 #47

Some casinos are prohibiting card counting so this only means it really works.  With the skill of card counting a player knows what will be the next sets of cards to be distributed and knows their chance of winning.  This way they can either add more chip on their bet or just stay with their initial bet.
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August 10, 2019, 08:33:05 PM
 #48

Quote
So If casinos prohibits card counting then there are people who already did it in real time and not on the movies?

The story of a professor and his maths class of students going out on a field trip to attempt probability theory for profit in a local casino is not made up as far as I know.   I will try and dig this out via google later but I did check previously and found it was a real case many decades ago now.

The subject of probability and data analysis for advantage goes back hundreds of years and relates to multiple subjects even as serious as engineering, they will determine odds of failure vs stress patterns of various natures.   Nothing in the world is indestructible but they have to make it highly improbable and be aware when risk of failure rises and why.   As I like to say in many threads, gambling is not a game its a feature of life we cannot get away from and everything is a risk with known and unknowns.

   Listen to this guy, he is quoting ancient Greece scholars afaik:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk

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August 10, 2019, 09:08:39 PM
 #49

I think the card count on blackjack is not important because when we play online there is a system that makes the house and players have different levels of luck, after all many people use or play online gambling like this simultaneously and it is a sign that the calculation in the blackjack game not important. So, I personally just feel this game only relies on luck, if the cards can be known its movements then immediately play well, but when we feel something is not good at the time of the game, then I will just leave it.

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August 10, 2019, 10:46:49 PM
 #50

I think the card count on blackjack is not important because when we play online there is a system that makes the house and players have different levels of luck, after all many people use or play online gambling like this simultaneously and it is a sign that the calculation in the blackjack game not important. So, I personally just feel this game only relies on luck, if the cards can be known its movements then immediately play well, but when we feel something is not good at the time of the game, then I will just leave it.

Most, if not all, online blackjack games play like the deck is shuffled after every hand. Also, the live games online casinos offers use continuous shufflers. So no, card counting is not going to help much with online games. However, if you can find the right game in brick and mortar casino's, it appears that it can work. However, it appears that it did not work for me because I didn't have a big enough bankroll.
However, one thing that can help a person online is to learn the basic strategy. You would be surprised how many people do not know how to play the basic strategy, perfectly. I remember getting yelled out for making a play, such as split 9s against a dealer low card. One person, long ago, accused me of being greedy and how dare that I ruin a "good hand."  Cheesy I remember another guy yelled at me for hitting a soft 18 vs a dealer 10. the player, himself, was playing the no bust strategy. (Literally he would not hit a hard 12 or above no matter what the dealer had.) Roll Eyes

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August 12, 2019, 04:39:06 AM
 #51

Some casinos are prohibiting card counting so this only means it really works.  With the skill of card counting a player knows what will be the next sets of cards to be distributed and knows their chance of winning.  This way they can either add more chip on their bet or just stay with their initial bet.
I have always wondered why casinos are sometimes against card counting, now I understand better but the card counting is even not so easy and not every gambler can do it. I don’t want to believe every player has the memory for counting and moreover to be good at counting, we must have the ability to be focused not to miss count of the cards that have been arranged optically, this is the only way a a gambler counting, one can get an opportunity to guess next thing that would be unveiled in the game.

The necessity of calculations in blackjack can never be overestimated. The casinos are aware of this and this is the reason its highly prohibited, it definitely works.


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August 12, 2019, 05:32:42 AM
 #52

I have always wondered why casinos are sometimes against card counting, now I understand better but the card counting is even not so easy and not every gambler can do it. I don’t want to believe every player has the memory for counting and moreover to be good at counting, we must have the ability to be focused not to miss count of the cards that have been arranged optically, this is the only way a a gambler counting, one can get an opportunity to guess next thing that would be unveiled in the game.

The necessity of calculations in blackjack can never be overestimated. The casinos are aware of this and this is the reason its highly prohibited, it definitely works.
What are you talking about? The most you have to memorize is the count and the number of aces, if you're doing any side count. The rest you can discern between rounds. You're not remembering every individual card, though you certainly could (and given enough skill, mathematically deduce exact probabilities), rather you're using various systems to come close to best betting/playing strategy. Some counting systems are marginally lower than the accuracy of calculating card-by-card, so you're not missing out on much. Maybe a small difference of 0.001 ev.

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August 12, 2019, 12:14:40 PM
 #53

Card counting is not legal in gambling. You can be kicked out and denied your reward for counting the cards. Many people have won as well as been kicked out for wining by counting the cards.
Card counting itself is not an easy task, you'd need a high level of attention and a super memory.
There's nothing as card counting in online gambling as the shuffle are totally random.

Card counting is not illegal. There is no law that prohibits someone from using their brain in order to keep track of cards that have been dealt. The can prohibit someone from using an electronic device. The casino is a private business, though, and they can decide that they do not want a particular player's action. If they feel so inclined, they may even make certain players persona non grata. If you step foot in their casino again, or refuse to leave, they can have you arrested for trespassing. Also, when a casino backs off a card counter, they do allow them to cash in their chips. Otherwise, that would be theft on their part. Of course, the casino can make you whip out your ID, in order to be "compliant" with AML laws...

It is true that card counting is not illegal but some casinos consider it as cheating and there is a possibility that you will get banned from a casino if they caught you doing card counting. Casinos don't really mind if you are counting cards but they don't like the idea that you got successful because of it so if you are good at card counting you have to change tables and casinos often for you not to get caught. However, card counting isn't as simple as it sound it needs a sharp mind and memory for you to master it but once you master it then you have a bigger chance in winning.



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