Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

[simpleIPaddress]

Satoshi has mined the most coins.
In 2010 they were talking about lost coins and Satoshi said

Think of it as a donation to everyone.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.0

1. He thought the coins are lost forever and we have a lot of 'shalecoins' https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 and they will become active one day

or

2. Satoshi created the greatest prize competition and the privatekeys are somehow within the blockchain. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5150688.0

1. Yes, with quantum computers they would become active. Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

[1713402715]

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[1713402715]

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[1713402715]

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[1713402715]

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[1713402715]

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[1713402715]

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[simpleIPaddress]

Quantum computers are not common, so it's too early to talk about anything. And besides, this technology has not yet been finalized

The question is important for the future of Bitcoin.
Imagine a BTC price > $1,000,000 and more than 1,000,000 'shalecoins', coins with no owner https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 would become active.
The value of these coins would be > $1,000,000,000,000
How can that work?

[Nadziratel]

Satoshi has mined the most coins.
In 2010 they were talking about lost coins and Satoshi said

Think of it as a donation to everyone.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.0

1. He thought the coins are lost forever and we have a lot of 'shalecoins' https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 and they will become active one day

or

2. Satoshi created the greatest prize competition and the privatekeys are somehow within the blockchain. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5150688.0

1. Yes, with quantum computers they would become active. Did Satoshi think that quantum computers will exist?

I think we should know what is the quantum computers first? And I think this video is the most understanable information way.

https://www.ted.com/talks/shohini_ghose_quantum_computing_explained_in_10_minutes?utm_campaign=tedspread&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=tedcomshare

If you know what is the quantum computer now. Then you may understand it is not possible to know this things 10 years before.

[dzoni]

The question is important for the future of Bitcoin.
Imagine a BTC price > $1,000,000 and more than 1,000,000 'shalecoins', coins with no owner https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 would become active.
The value of these coins would be > $1,000,000,000,000
How can that work?

There are two important.

Ad 1. If quantum computing managed to break private key cryptography in a way that it allowed somebody to control shalecoins, this would instantly induce a panic which would crash the price of bitcoin, so it wouldn't be $1,000,000,000,000 anymore, more like $1,000.

Ad 2. If quantum computing managed to break private key cryptography, we would have much bigger problems than future of bitcoin - all of the internet would be exposed to attacks it would be easy to hack anything from internet banking to medical equipment. Pure chaos would ensue and not many people would worry about their cryptocurrency.

[dothebeats]

Satoshi's caliber and knowledge in IT, cryptography and all sorts of techy stuff is immense, and we can see that through his own post writings here in this forum and other places in the internet that it's not impossible that he had already thought of quantum computing as one problem bitcoin might face in the future hence he 'future-proofed' the whole protocol by embedding lots of hard to break algorithms and cryptographic keys in it. Though it's still entirely possible that quantum computing would break bitcoin, it would take a long time for it to happen and perhaps by then, we have moved into a more secure algorithm or we may not even exist at all.

[seoincorporation]

The thing here is... If a quantum computes could vuln bitcoin by brute force, that would mean the end of sha256 (but it's impossible), that's why they call it one-way encryption. And if it really happens there are other things to worry about than bitcoin. Because in the scenario where a quantum computer decode bitcoin transactions, then we will see a fork to recover the coins and an encryption upgrade, so, don't worry at all

[squatter]

If he did, he wasn't worried about them. That's why early outputs weren't P2PKH (pay-to-pubkey-hash) but rather P2PK (pay-to-pubkey). P2PK outputs provide no protection if ECDSA is broken by quantum computers. From the Bitcoin wiki:

Obsolete pay-to-pubkey transaction

OP_CHECKSIG is used directly without first hashing the public key. This was used by early versions of Bitcoin where people paid directly to IP addresses, before Bitcoin addresses were introduced. scriptPubKeys of this transaction form are still recognized as payments to user by Bitcoin Core. The disadvantage of this transaction form is that the whole public key needs to be known in advance, implying longer payment addresses, and that it provides less protection in the event of a break in the ECDSA signature algorithm.

[jseverson]

Shale coins could still be a possibility but is it an issue? Thought gone coins coming back to circulation? Would it even be profitable to run a quantum machine for the length of time it takes on average to crack?

It will be at some point. It's also entirely possible for this to happen even before quantum computers are commercially available.

Because in the scenario where a quantum computer decode bitcoin transactions, then we will see a fork to recover the coins and an encryption upgrade, so, don't worry at all

"Recovering" someone else's coins is a very slipper slope. What essentially happens is that you steal them in place of another thief.

[TimeBits]

How could they predict Asics, they didn't. They did not exist when they created bitcoin. They had no clue they would come into existence.

[Kakmakr]

Yes he did and that is why he developed the whole Bitcoin protocol in such a way that the difficulty would adjust, based on the combined hash rate at any given time. This was done to make room for any future technologies that might want to dominate the mining scene, when they develop something that would make it easier to mine bitcoins. <ASIC technology is just one example of that and the difficulty increased based on the added hashing power that was added by this technology>

Quantum computing might replace ASIC technology, like ASIC technology replaced GPU mining. 

[adaseb]

This was discussed many times in the past.

He basically mined to a public key, which is slightly less secure than a Bitcoin address so its slightly easier to crack. So he didn't really worry about quantum computers back then.

Most likely if it reaches a point when Quantum computer "could" crack a public key and find the private key, then there will most likely be an upgrade to the network to prevent peoples funds from being stolen.

But from what I heard we are about 10 years away from this happening at the earliest.

[valentin68]

Satoshi Nakamoto is a mathematician. I am a physicist. I had  a mathematics professor that could be compared with Satoshi Nakamoto. When bitcoin was invented in 2009, the quantum adventure was at its beginnings.

I made my PhD thesis on quantum wells (in 2000), in 2009 what was in my PhD thesis was learned in the QM in the 2nd year of faculty.  When bitcoin was invented no one could say that Quantum Computers will be invented in 10 years.

Thus, Satoshi Nakamoto did not think that quantum computers will exist when he invented the bitcoin.

[dzoni]

Well Bitcoin could easily Transition into a fork that generates a new quantum proof private key (we don't know if the current one is or is not) and you'd move your coins to your new address.

Hmmm... quantum proof private key cryptographic algorithms exist? As far as I understand there is no such thing?

[buwaytress]

A bit of a stale topic since even the most optimistic projections give us another decade before such a qc becomes a viable threat... And it is conceivable that Bitcoin would have upgraded significantly by then... Considering the developments of the last decade alone.

I do wonder if all that presumed upgrades would also be retrospective, it would have to be otherwise people who didn't update wallets would risk losing everything.

[omone1]

Satoshi's caliber and knowledge in IT, cryptography and all sorts of techy stuff is immense, and we can see that through his own post writings here in this forum and other places in the internet that it's not impossible that he had already thought of quantum computing as one problem bitcoin might face in the future hence he 'future-proofed' the whole protocol by embedding lots of hard to break algorithms and cryptographic keys in it. Though it's still entirely possible that quantum computing would break bitcoin, it would take a long time for it to happen and perhaps by then, we have moved into a more secure algorithm or we may not even exist at all.

Thank you for this explanation. "We would have move to a more secured algorithm" is what I will take home as a word of hope.

[qubitasic]

A quantum secure network / addresses are possible and not an issue. But what will happen to the 'shalecoins'?
Maybe some will say to burn them in the new quantum secure network, what would lead to a fork.
And some would still use the new quantum secure network with all the old coins.

Ad 1. If quantum computing managed to break private key cryptography in a way that it allowed somebody to control shalecoins, this would instantly induce a panic which would crash the price of bitcoin, so it wouldn't be $1,000,000,000,000 anymore, more like $1,000.

And the Bitcoin ecosystem would be broken. The Bitcoin community should not allow this and we have to solve that problem now.
The best solution would be, somebody could move the 'shalecoins' to P2PKH addresses.

[qubitasic]

https://securityboulevard.com/2019/08/the-race-is-on-crypto-agility-vs-quantum-computing-who-is-ahead/
Each passing day brings the world closer to the exciting reality of powerful quantum computing...
But one thing is foreseeable: along with this greater power, some of today’s foundational crypto algorithms will be broken by quantum computers, making data security in a post-quantum world a top concern...
And although post-quantum is projected to be a few years away, an enterprise must start planning today to be post-quantum ready...


a few years away... $ billions investments...

http://www.washdiplomat.com/PouchArticle/cms/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=785
...Italy, he says, is “attached to the European initiative,” a 1 billion euro investment in quantum research. Other nations are pursuing similar initiatives. The United Kingdom, Japan and Australia have invested upward of $100 million per year in quantum information technology. In 2018, the United States’ National Quantum Initiative Act instituted a $1.2 billion investment into quantum information science. In doing so, the U.S. joined Canada, the European Union and China as a leader in world quantum investment, with respective commitments of over $1 billion.

maybe earlier:

They will develop new quantum technologies:

"Quantum computers will soon outperform classical machines"
"The project is part of the EU’s €1 billion, 10-year Quantum Flagship initiative to kickstart a competitive European industry in quantum technologies."
http://www.engineersjournal.ie/2019/07/01/quantum-computers-will-soon-outperform-classical-machines/
https://medium.com/the-quantum-resistant-ledger/no-ibms-quantum-computer-won-t-break-bitcoin-but-we-should-be-prepared-for-one-that-can-cc3e178ebff0

New quantum computing building block developed by Australian researchers
The quantum building block, which is capable of performing an operation of 0.8 nanoseconds, is around 200 times faster than existing spin-based two-qubit gates in silicon.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-07-19/quantum-computing-silicon-two-qubit-gate/11325424

Forget Qubits — Scientists Just Built a Quantum Gate With Qudits
And they could help usher in the era of the quantum computer.
https://futurism.com/forget-qubits-quantum-scientists-building-qudits

The research team discovered that four qudits had the same power as 20 qubits. What’s more, the qudits were more stable than the qubits.
https://canadianhomesteading.ca/science/quantum-computing-breakthrough-scientists-created-quantum-gates-using-qudits/11458


... and maybe a private group.

[squatter]

A bit of a stale topic since even the most optimistic projections give us another decade before such a qc becomes a viable threat... And it is conceivable that Bitcoin would have upgraded significantly by then... Considering the developments of the last decade alone.

I do wonder if all that presumed upgrades would also be retrospective, it would have to be otherwise people who didn't update wallets would risk losing everything.

No quantum-resistant upgrade can retroactively protect vulnerable bitcoins. That's why we're "damned if you do, damned if you don't." Either way, there could still be millions of vulnerable bitcoins held on exposed public keys. The Satoshi coins, for example.

The only way to prevent those bitcoins from being stolen and re-added to the supply would be to lock/destroy them in a fork. For example, we could implement a fork where coins are destroyed if they aren't moved in n blocks -- a number of years down the road maybe. This would be extremely controversial.

Otherwise, the only thing we can do is soft fork in a new signature scheme (like Lamport) and have people voluntarily use it, like Segwit. No matter what, a decade is not such a long time. We should be discussing this stuff today.

[qubitasic]

Post quantum we will have lots of forks. But the quantum upgraded original chain with all the mined coins will be the strongest. Anyone who has the privatekey of an old address can now move their coins and they will be quantum secure. Otherwise they are 'shalecoins' and have no owner and will be 'fracked'. These coins are the reward of their 'frackers'. If some think that the 'shalecoins' should be locked/destroyed, they can use the fork with excluded 'shalecoins'. They are already discussing such things: Fork and Destroy Satoshi's 1 million Bitcoin? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5131393.0

No matter what, a decade is not such a long time. We should be discussing this stuff today.

Yes, squatter.
Quantum computers will surprise the Bitcoin community. The 'shalecoins' will be moved and will become active. Thereafter BTC owners will decide, which fork they want to use.

[qubitasic]

All inevitable technologies like electricity and transistors started off as research efforts that were not even visible to the outside world. But like a distant wave on the horizon, the slow movement belied the impact once it arrived.
But once the quantum wave does arrive, it will be as profoundly powerful to society as the move from abacus to silicon computing.

https://irishtechnews.ie/the-latest-quantum-computing-trends-from-5th-annual-conference-on-quantum-technologies-moscow/

Move your coins from old addresses to make them quantum secure.
'Shalecoins', coins with no owner ' https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5134441.0 will be 'fracked' in the original chain.