Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down.

[lixer]

Bitcoin bull run can start at any time, and it does not have to follow a cycle, the whole thing depends on the amount of investors that would pick interest at a particular time, and we can see that the time of interest of each investors varies, what usually pull crowd to make investment at once is if there is a publicity, a promo or something strong that would touch people and call their attention at once.

I think in 2017, ico contributed to why bitcoin price soared that high, we got lots of investors that came in at once to make investment, and I am sure that a factor will also come soon that will attract people to bitcoin, FacebookLibra coin would have been one, but it seem that one may not really be launched.

The market is not saturated at all, what is the percentage of people in bitcoin compared to the percentage of people in other markets, it is still very little.

[el kaka22]

People who are locked in the past can never move to future, I may have butchered the translation of that from my language but that is true in any language. If you still think that what happened in bitcoins past will repeat itself in the future you are wrong, you are dead wrong.

The notion that "history repeats itself" then you are super wrong, people do take out lessons from the wrongs that has been done in the past and we move from that. Maybe we are not progressing as well as we should and maybe sometimes we take a step back or two but eventually humanity always goes further and so does everything with it. Bitcoin do not have a 4 year cycle nor does it do things like people expect it to do, just because 2017 was a peak doesn't mean 2021-2022 will be neither, we are already in a bull market since we moved from 3k to 11k already if you haven't noticed.

[tuner324]

People who are locked in the past can never move to future, I may have butchered the translation of that from my language but that is true in any language. If you still think that what happened in bitcoins past will repeat itself in the future you are wrong, you are dead wrong.

The notion that "history repeats itself" then you are super wrong, people do take out lessons from the wrongs that has been done in the past and we move from that. Maybe we are not progressing as well as we should and maybe sometimes we take a step back or two but eventually humanity always goes further and so does everything with it. Bitcoin do not have a 4 year cycle nor does it do things like people expect it to do, just because 2017 was a peak doesn't mean 2021-2022 will be neither, we are already in a bull market since we moved from 3k to 11k already if you haven't noticed.

but...
...the 2019 high is 1/3 lower than the 2017/18 high.
...since the 2019 high we had two more peaks - each one lower than the one before that
...since the august uptrend we had like 5-6 peaks, each one lower than the one that came before it

Does this sound or look bullish to you?



Just like all of you I hope for btc to break out towards new highs and I think the current world economy doesn't look too bad for it. But I am not delusional and realize that it might very well go in the other direction.

[exstasie]

I kinda did 'just draw some lines on a chart' but that's my point - depending on how you draw the lines, btc seems to be going up or going down. Simply depends on how you look at it/draw the lines.

Long term trends > short term trends. This is why charting the daily/weekly chart is actually useful for traders, while looking at the 1-minute chart is just chaotic noise. Over the long term, markets revert to the mean. For Bitcoin, that's a very well established long term uptrend.

but...
...the 2019 high is 1/3 lower than the 2017/18 high.
...since the 2019 high we had two more peaks - each one lower than the one before that
...since the august uptrend we had like 5-6 peaks, each one lower than the one that came before it

Zoom out to the monthly chart. How likely is it these "peaks" will even be noticeable in the long term?

[tuner324]

I kinda did 'just draw some lines on a chart' but that's my point - depending on how you draw the lines, btc seems to be going up or going down. Simply depends on how you look at it/draw the lines.

Long term trends > short term trends. This is why charting the daily/weekly chart is actually useful for traders, while looking at the 1-minute chart is just chaotic noise. Over the long term, markets revert to the mean. For Bitcoin, that's a very well established long term uptrend.

I actually showed multiple long term pictures already.

Is it really bullish when looking at it since 2014?

[STT]

As far as Bitcoin not paying out dividends, it's not entirely true. Bitcoin holders have been generously rewarded with a wide variety of forks

I wouldnt call forks a dividend, thats more like a scrip or fracturing of value into the separate fork which people then choose sell and speculate on the main fork being the most sucessfull which was true in this case.    So thats some speculating losing over others who retained the bcash or whichever fork.

BTC will return a yield if you place it with an institution.   There is no cash in the world that returns interest unless you place it with some bank of some kind, originally those banks often went broke.  The interest was a return for the risk hence the interest could be quite good.

We dont have that system with modern FIAT cash now really but bitcoin can given over to float in a few different businesses and return a yield and the original amount.   You do risk and trust that company to continue on without default, so its risk vs return normal capitalism.

[Slow death]

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money.

a few months ago the price was $3000 and now the price is $11800, it shows that people have bought a lot and you can look at the altcoins that are dropping too much, and in my opinion the price of the altcoins is dropping a lot why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. and why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoins? because of halving, because of the possible entry of BAKKT and other companies. in my opinion the price will increase very long term

Bitcoin Price Is Currently Sitting in Its Historic Top 2% Range

as i said, in the long run the price will be very good

[tuner324]

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money.

a few months ago the price was $3000 and now the price is $11800, it shows that people have bought a lot and you can look at the altcoins that are dropping too much, and in my opinion the price of the altcoins is dropping a lot why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. and why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoins? because of halving, because of the possible entry of BAKKT and other companies. in my opinion the price will increase very long term

Yeah sure, and during the bear market people sold a lot.
What if it's just the same people jumping back on board?
Would explain why we did get a decent high, but a lower one than 2017 (because the hype isn't as big as back then).

[carter34]

It is now being accumulated by the elite and the asset managers as an addition to precious metals

Bitcoin brings in new class to affluence to join the existing elite class and I don't see it that the elite class alone is accumulating coins because the modus is open to acquire even by the poor because you have lower strata of satoshi to acquire, own/hodl and allow it to grow too.

[Sunyoto]

if I think a bull run will also be experienced this year, because now the growth of bitcoin prices is also starting to grow, so I think the price of bitcoin will also increase again in the coming time

[ene1980]

I am aware of the '4 year cycle' and that nearly everybody here believes bitcoin is long term bullish. I am not saying I totally disagree with that, but I do think other options are also possible and should be discussed!

We know about the 4 year cycle simply because of the past experience and we do not have a big data to analyze whether it will happen again but then it is likely that we will see a rally after the halving because the amount of coins in circulation reduces and it will have an affect on the market.

But in 2018 literally everyone that reads news learned about bitcoin (and invested if he believed in it). So, now we simply lack investors that could push the price up.

Let me set the record straight, do you really expect that the market will rise because more people with invest in bitcoin, if you want to see the real difference in the market and expect the market to rise like everyone expects we need to have institutional investment coming into bitcoin and not a few thousands dollars from everyone to accumulate so that the market rises  .

[BrewMaster]

if you want to see the real difference in the market and expect the market to rise like everyone expects we need to have institutional investment coming into bitcoin and not a few thousands dollars from everyone to accumulate so that the market rises  .

i don't think we are at that stage yet. and it is not "a few thousands of dollars"! the past 10 years is the clear proof that we don't need institutional investors and also the dollars that are coming in are more than enough to rise millions of percentage in less than a decade.
on top of that, bitcoin is decentralized and that is what attracts "individuals".

[Febo]

When looking at the charts, it's pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend since more than one month:
https://i.ibb.co/bgbbBf1/07-08-2019-2.png

We were in a uptrend for half a year. That was one of longest periods of constant uptrend in Bitcoins history. Of course we had a downtrend month after that. 

Considering all that happened in past weeks. That so many people believe we are at brink of new financial crisis you dont think that is super good for Bitcoin long term? Moment when that happens it will break all trends and rewrite them fresh.

[FanEagle]

if I think a bull run will also be experienced this year, because now the growth of bitcoin prices is also starting to grow, so I think the price of bitcoin will also increase again in the coming time

I am still trying to figure out the factor that will usher in the bull run but I am still yet to see it, the only factor that I have seen is that of Facebook, and I think that the project may not see its light, another factor that would have easily contributed to it even long time ago was ICO if we had ICO that were genuine and would still attract the new investors to the industry, but as ICO is no longer much attractive, we do not have many new investors to invest in the cryptocurrency market to cause  major breakout.

The only factor that I am relying on right now is the halving of bitcoin, although I expected so much from that of Litecoin but was disappointed, but I believe that the one for bitcoin will really make a great impact because it is the most popular crypto till date.

[davinchi]

I don't understand why we can't call what happened bull neither, I mean we have moved from 3.4k at bottom this year to 13.8k at peak , how is that not a bull? The notion that "there is no bull market, bitcoin will go down" is quite wrong because bull already happened didn't it?

Maybe the correct term would be "bull time is over, bear will start" because than you try to say that bull already happened and it won't go up anymore, its time for bears to start and bitcoin price to go down, it still the same thing but accept the fact that bitcoin had a bull run and it will go down afterwards instead of denying all of bull run we just had. Of course people have seen the price move from 2-3k levels to 20k so they think it has to break the all time high in order to be a bull run but I feel like that is just wrong.

[Febo]

I don't understand why we can't call what happened bull neither, I mean we have moved from 3.4k at bottom this year to 13.8k at peak , how is that not a bull? The notion that "there is no bull market, bitcoin will go down" is quite wrong because bull already happened didn't it?

We had one of longest uptrend of bitcoin price in history of Bitcoin. Five straight positive months.




Problem is that some people will just never be satisfied. If we would have 10 positive month they will start complain after one negative month.

[Ozero]

I don't understand why we can't call what happened bull neither, I mean we have moved from 3.4k at bottom this year to 13.8k at peak , how is that not a bull? The notion that "there is no bull market, bitcoin will go down" is quite wrong because bull already happened didn't it?

Maybe the correct term would be "bull time is over, bear will start" because than you try to say that bull already happened and it won't go up anymore, its time for bears to start and bitcoin price to go down, it still the same thing but accept the fact that bitcoin had a bull run and it will go down afterwards instead of denying all of bull run we just had. Of course people have seen the price move from 2-3k levels to 20k so they think it has to break the all time high in order to be a bull run but I feel like that is just wrong.

Of course. We can assume that the period of the bull market was already from April 1 to June 26, when bitcoin increased in price by about four times. However, this time altcoins did not show similar growth and therefore the growth of the cryptocurrency market was somehow incomplete. Because of this, the capitalization and price dominance of Bitcoin has greatly increased. This situation cannot exist for a very long time and I hope that in the fall altcoins. will already be actively growing after the next rise in bitcoin. In the fourth quarter, there should be a full-fledged bull market for cryptocurrency.

[Reid]

I disagree.
As you say, we are getting higher in numbers and if these people are getting even a part of 1 bitcoin and doesn't sell thinking it is an investment then we are still in good hands.

Not all can become traders or want to be a trader because of the time that will be spent to do it.
Some are just happy with an investment and never really want to move it.
With that, the price of bitcoin can still be intact. Let us say whales might sell but they cannot dump it to a number which is too low for people to panic again.

[serjent05]

The truth is, bear had never go away, its that the bullish market is pretty dominant at this moment but sometimes Bearish appears but easily dominated by bulls, that is another reason why we can see higher low (price crashing but higher than the previous  bottom price) during the bullish season of Bitcoin market.  I also agree that there is always a possibility that the trend will go the other way (Bitcoin going down) but I dis-agree that there is no bull market because if there is no Bull market then what do you call this rally of BTC from 3k up to the present price?

[tuner324]

The truth is, bear had never go away, its that the bullish market is pretty dominant at this moment but sometimes Bearish appears but easily dominated by bulls, that is another reason why we can see higher low (price crashing but higher than the previous  bottom price) during the bullish season of Bitcoin market.  I also agree that there is always a possibility that the trend will go the other way (Bitcoin going down) but I dis-agree that there is no bull market because if there is no Bull market then what do you call this rally of BTC from 3k up to the present price?

That would then be a bullish periode that has ended with the nearly 13k high.