How can buying 1Th/s machines now be profitable?!?

[sale]

So, if we say that 1Th/s machines now cost 5900$ plus shipping and optional customs/tax, let's say it's 6500$ in total...
If I enter into calculator that:
- average diff increase is 20%
- electricity bills are 0$
maximum profit this machine can make before new year is: 5400$

Now did I get something wrong or what?!?!
Check yourself:

http://aleks1k.github.io/bitcoin-calculator/?Hashrate=1&HashrateLevel=1e12&HardwarePower=200&Difficulty=4250217919.87&DifficultyIncrement=0.203&StartDate=NaN&EndDate=NaN&PoolFee=0&ElectricityPrice=0&Currency=USD&CurrencyRate=636.66#BTC

[1713983920]

1713983920

[1713983920]

1713983920

[1713983920]

1713983920

[Kenshin]

That is why it is not worth buying any mining equipment. It is better if you use that money to buy Bitcoins.

[DarwinNexus]

So, if we say that 1Th/s machines now cost 5900$ plus shipping and optional customs/tax, let's say it's 6500$ in total...
If I enter into calculator that:
- average diff increase is 20%
- electricity bills are 0$
maximum profit this machine can make before new year is: 5400$

Now did I get something wrong or what?!?!
Check yourself:

http://aleks1k.github.io/bitcoin-calculator/?Hashrate=1&HashrateLevel=1e12&HardwarePower=200&Difficulty=4250217919.87&DifficultyIncrement=0.203&StartDate=NaN&EndDate=NaN&PoolFee=0&ElectricityPrice=0&Currency=USD&CurrencyRate=636.66#BTC

New machines don't cost $6500 though.
They cost approximately $3900 (BitmainTech 1TH machines anyway).

Where you getting your rigs/numbers from?

[sale]

from AliExpress.com , ebay, amazon, http://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-rig-mid-january-batch

BTW, based on https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech
their s2 will cost 3900$ but ships on 10th of april... While my find(5900$) would be shipped on 20th of march...
Also, I said 6500$ is with all other expenses included!

[Kenshin]

from AliExpress.com , ebay, amazon, http://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-rig-mid-january-batch

BTW, based on https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech
their s2 will cost 3900$ but ships on 10th of april... While my find(5900$) would be shipped on 20th of march...
Also, I said 6500$ is with all other expenses included!

They are resellers, you should buy from this forum. Most of the sellers on those sites, got their stock from here.

[mrdeposit]

from AliExpress.com , ebay, amazon, http://bitmine.ch/?product=coincraft-rig-mid-january-batch

BTW, based on https://twitter.com/BITMAINtech
their s2 will cost 3900$ but ships on 10th of april... While my find(5900$) would be shipped on 20th of march...
Also, I said 6500$ is with all other expenses included!

Buying 5 S1's and overclocking them (200ghs each) with the PSUs is still cheaper than $5900. You would get them before March 20th. I'm just saying.

[mechew]

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.

From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

[inflatin]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

[Littleshop]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

Half the power on p2p pool, half on bitminter.

[inflatin]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

Half the power on p2p pool, half on bitminter.

Whats your reasoning behind this? Why not just throw it all behind Ghash, Eligius or BTCGuild? They're big pools, but you'd be rewarded with blocks more frequently.

[trinsic]

The problem is you're only looking at short term profits and not looking at the value of Bitcoin changing at all. Which it does a lot.

[Groc]

I'd wait for the ASICMiner products to start shipping before buying any rig.

[Littleshop]

If you could get your hands on a 1TH machine TODAY, what pool would you choose?

Half the power on p2p pool, half on bitminter.

Whats your reasoning behind this? Why not just throw it all behind Ghash, Eligius or BTCGuild? They're big pools, but you'd be rewarded with blocks more frequently.

Diversification.  I don't want all of the mining in just the big pools, it devalues Bitcoin.  Also the payout while more random is larger long term with P2P. 

[Groc]

it's really only profitable at less than $2 a ghs delivered. otherwise just buy btc and hold.

[mwizard]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%. 

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

[spazzdla]

The S1 Ant miner from Bitmaintech seems like it earns a good profit..?

[sale]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%. 

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

Ok, put the diff increase at 15%..
By calculations, machine of 1Th/s arrived at 29.03. at price 5900$(with shipping+customs+taxes included) will pay of exactly at new years eve
And assuming price of 636$ per BTC..

[mwizard]

As has been mentioned already your entire assumption that a 1 Th/S machine typically costs $5,900 or $6,500 is wrong, as is your assumption that difficulty increases will average 20% this year.

The cost for the Bitmain Antminer S2 1 Th/s is given on their site as $3599 USD ( 5.845 BTC ) for shipment by April 10th.
See https://www.bitmaintech.com/product.htm.

It is hard to see customs and shipping adding $1,900 or $2,500. 

We would love to see you calculations (power, power supply, customs assumptions etc) if you think Antminer S2s are still unprofitable at $3,599 with say a 15% difficulty increase.  Possibly there is something we are missing, for example you live somewhere with very high customs duties or where power is very expensive.

Note on difficulty - In reality it is expected the difficulty increases later this year will fall far below 15%.  15% can be considered worst case.  10% may be more realistic after the middle of the year.
 

[sale]

April 10th is in 22 days!!!! By the time it arrives and you pull it from customs, it will take another 7-10 days...
If you wanna buy machines now, then lets say it's 4500$.
Shipping to my country is 800$ , taxes are 20%, customs, 2-5%.. Lets suppose value written on invoice is 2000$.. If you put less, you risk customs will confiscate it because they will check on ebay how much it costs...
Company that will do the customs duty papers and delivery is 100$ at least.. There are other smaller expenses, but let's say that's it.. We come to ~5900$ if you buy NOW...
If you will wait until april 10th, then price will of course be lower, but only for the amount of money you would earn by then..

As for difficulty, it will average to 20% IF bitcoin price jumps, I am sure of it.. Now, when it's worse then ever to make a ROI, diff increase is estimated at 12-14%... That's my opinion at least..

[superresistant]

Also the payout while more random is larger long term with P2P. 

What, so it was true ?

There was debate for years about it. Could you prove it with calculation please ?

[klondike_bar]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%. 

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

Ok, put the diff increase at 15%..
By calculations, machine of 1Th/s arrived at 29.03. at price 5900$(with shipping+customs+taxes included) will pay of exactly at new years eve
And assuming price of 636$ per BTC..

now imagine if btc goes to $800. the electrical cost becomes much less significant

now imagine if we see more difficulty jumps like the last one at 11.2%? I don't think we will see a jump greater than 20% ever again IMO

[sudoku]

The next diff increase is projected at about 15%.

[syber]

The next diff increase is projected at about 15%.

Yeah basically seems like I'm going to shoot myself in the foot due to buying 5 x 1TH/s miners.
Even at 10% from the date of arrival after 12 weeks and onward I'm probably going to lose out on this one.
Sucks I hope the difficulty goes way down and BTC goes way up. Though the likelihood is that I should have just kept my investment in BTC vs wasting money on obsolete equipment.
I hope I'm wrong. 

Anyone know if you can use Coincraft A1 28nm ASIC Chips for altcoins or anything else?

[superresistant]

Yeah basically seems like I'm going to shoot myself in the foot due to buying 5 x 1TH/s miners.
Even at 10% from the date of arrival after 12 weeks and onward I'm probably going to lose out on this one.
Sucks I hope the difficulty goes way down and BTC goes way up. Though the likelihood is that I should have just kept my investment in BTC vs wasting money on obsolete equipment.
I hope I'm wrong.  

Why didn't you check prices first ?
AntMiner S2 1TH/s Miner (1w/GH/s) are 3600 USD
https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=000201403150259438234hgMrx380699

A lot of people have them already



It only consume about 870 W while coincraft-desk consume up to 1875 W (turbo mode).

Also the return on investment highly depend on electricity cost. How much do you pay ?

Anyone know if you can use Coincraft A1 28nm ASIC Chips for altcoins or anything else?

No.

[spazzdla]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

[Searing]

The use of 20% for the difficulty increase should be questioned.

It is much more likely the difficulty increase this year will be 15% falling to 10%.  

I suggest you redo the calculations assuming 15%.  In this case mining is attractive and the miner is profitable to run well into 2015.

So what it comes down to is do you believe the difficulty increase this year will average 20% or is 10-15% more likely.  Remember the last difficulty increase was 11.39%.

Ok, put the diff increase at 15%..
By calculations, machine of 1Th/s arrived at 29.03. at price 5900$(with shipping+customs+taxes included) will pay of exactly at new years eve
And assuming price of 636$ per BTC..

now imagine if btc goes to $800. the electrical cost becomes much less significant

now imagine if we see more difficulty jumps like the last one at 11.2%? I don't think we will see a jump greater than 20% ever again IMO

i have a neptune 1st run order early order coming...I hope you are the "prophet of bitcoin" hanging on by my fingernails on if to keep this beast or not ...lucky they (knc) has a refund option...they just released a Titan scypt miner 10.2k w/shipping NO REFUND option I asked..so the days of refunds may be past for everyone .....its all the miners risk now it seems

but I like the never above 11.2% difficulty rise of BTC having a large high end of the Que machine ..by that I mean last big run till summer...me thinks... be great i  manage to hang on to this beast likely 4TH Neptune....(sigh........as I say this BTC is tanking...story of my life)....still have the reset (ie refund button) to push thou

11.2% makes me feel all rosy (assuming the damn thing comes)

Searing


Searing

[klondike_bar]

^this jump looks like it will be somewhere between 14% and 16%, which is pretty good IMO with the spoondolie miner and dragon miners now being produced in large numbers.

The market can only take on so much equipment at a time. most miners are fully invested right now, and if rebuying with the mined rewards its hard to imagine adding more than 5-10% capacity every 12 days forever. New miners are also an option, but its likely they are not bying large amounts of hardware.

A lot of initial high jumps came from established GPU miners moving thier money to ASIC and possibly opening up cold wallets to do so. That time is passed now and the growth will have to become more linear and consistent.

With BTC dropping and summer coming, its very likely that people will start holding off on buying equipment thus reducing the difficulty rate. some of the 4w/Gh or higher gear will be going offline very soon which may help a little.


however, most of the 1TH gear thats priced $3500-$4000 makes no sense unless bitcoin prices go back above $600

[Syke]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

[klondike_bar]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

[Entropy-uc]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

[serje]

If I would have 1TH I would go all in in a medium-big sized p2pool!

You will get a block every now and then but you will be 140% sure you will get your coins!

I'm not saying someone will hack btcguild or ghash but maybe they will hack in your account so why bother paying fees and having a risk when you can do it risk free?

[klondike_bar]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

[Entropy-uc]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

[ChuckBuck]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

But where's the fun in that?   

I don't know what it is about mining, but owning even a little hash makes you feel like you're part of something big.  The upkeep, the maintenance, the monitoring of hardware makes you feel like you're in charge of your mining datacenter(in alot of cases, yes).  The block rewards and chance to ROI are the cherry on the top.

[klondike_bar]

Just a point.. the average investor would kill to get their entire investment back in 1 year.. just saying.

With bitcoin mining, you either break even in a few months, or you never will. With "average" investments, you may have to wait longer, but eventually you'll break even.

^that is not at all true. 6 months ago it looked like antminers and anything drawing >1w/GH would be useless by now. however, it now looks like they have another 4-8 months of profitable lifespan ahead of them.

additionally untrue is your second statement. not all investment vehicles break even. equipment can burn out or break, the market can change, or the value of your product can dive. There is never a guarenteed break-even. but bitcoin miners stand a good chance

You can construct any fantasy you wish and justify it by examining a time frame where bitcoin exchange rates increased by a factor of 15.

The reality Syke is explaining to you is that in the current environment a miner earns as much BTC in the first 60 days of operation as it will in the remaining life of the machine. If you don't break even in that time frame, odds are you will never see a reasonable risk adjusted return on the investment.

And bitcoin is as likely to return to $20 / bitcoin as it is to revisit $1200.

clearly there are miners who think otherwise in order to be buying all the current equipment to the point of batches being sold out.

I am not talking about bitcoin going to $3000 or $7000. Im talking about bitcoin rebounding to $700 which I think is a totally fair value to use in my calculations, and with difficulty starting to taper a bit (we were doing 30% jumps back in november) towards 15%/jump average over the last month, I see a window to make a 10-20% gain per machine by the late 2014 (breakeven around july/august, 120% by november) and with a $10,000 investment that is a pretty good outcome.

bigger picture - im bullish. I think we are right near the bottom of the charts right now (might push to $525 at the lowest) and that a rebound to $650 will happen in the next 14 days, and sometime around may/june we could rally back past $1000. if this happens the bitcoins invested/mined will be worth even more than the power costs.

^yes, that last statement is speculation. But if it comes true, my 20% gains will be much closer to 30-40% gains. Not bad for a 6-10 month investment

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

[superresistant]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

[klondike_bar]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

[superresistant]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

Yes they are. I've been selling many USB miners at a price that make it impossible to get any return even at current difficulty.
Everyday miners are sold on ebay the same way.

The hardware OP is talking about cannot be profitable.

Most people have no idea how to calculate a return on investment, yet they buy Bitcoin miners.

[ChuckBuck]

OR, you could just buy bitcoin today and make a 27% gain in 14 days if your prediction comes to pass.  Why work hard all year, pay rent and electric bills, and risk capital on bitcoin gear to make less money?

You don't understand then. I buy mining equipment in BTC using coins I mined with the current hardware. When I am talking about a 20% profit i am talking BTC/BTC, not BTC/USD. If i hold my x BTC it will still be worth x BTC. If i buy a miner, I firmly believe I will make x+(30 to 40%) BTC minus electricity costs (at current price, about 25%).

Most miners are negative. They are losing BTC.

*smirk*  
yup - sure are

Yes they are. I've been selling many USB miners at a price that make it impossible to get any return even at current difficulty.
Everyday miners are sold on ebay the same way.

The hardware OP is talking about cannot be profitable.

Most people have no idea how to calculate a return on investment, yet they buy Bitcoin miners.

Not if you buy the right miners, at the right price, from the right sellers/resellers, and in hand only.

Bitmain has disproved the whole preorder notion with their S1s.  Their S2's, though 2 week preorder, sold out within hours and should ROI if it's delivered on time beginning of April.

Of course EBay buyers won't ROI, they didn't do their homework!  

[klondike_bar]

ebay users also pay 150-200% spot price for gold and silver

[romang]

ebay users also pay 150-200% spot price for gold and silver

This is true u can buy silver from silvertown and then sell it back on ebay for a profit but the fees eat up most of the profits and ebay only gets richer.

[ChuckBuck]

ebay users also pay 150-200% spot price for gold and silver

This is true u can buy silver from silvertown and then sell it back on ebay for a profit but the fees eat up most of the profits and ebay only gets richer.

That's the one thing I dread selling anything on eBay is the fees.

Selling anything of value, that 10% plus listing plus reserve really kill any profits you think may be getting.

I hate eBay/Paypal for this among a multitude of reasons.

[Entropy-uc]

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk.  For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts.  I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it.  All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out.  Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner.  And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining.  Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear.  You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

[ChuckBuck]

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk.  For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts.  I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it.  All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out.  Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner.  And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining.  Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear.  You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route.  Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

[Entropy-uc]

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk.  For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts.  I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it.  All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out.  Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner.  And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining.  Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear.  You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route.  Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

What's the warranty on Ants?  I see anecdotes here that make me think failure rates are running over 20%.  If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

Then you have the labor involved in keep acceptable uptime.  How many times do you want to drive to your hosting location at 3 am?  Do you like the idea of never leaving town on vacation?  Or how well do you sleep with the noise and heat and fire risk in your own home?

Ants have had a good run.  It's probably over now.  Mining hardware buys tend to run in cycles.  Early on, it's a good move.  Then it rapidly swings into losses.  If you are naive about what is entailed in running a profitable operation you can easily be losing money without realizing it.

Don't get me wrong, I've been mining at scales >0.5 % of the network for years now.  If you made the wrong decisions in 2013, bitcoin appreciation still made you huge profits.  Expecting to get bailed out that way again is naive.

[ChuckBuck]

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk.  For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts.  I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it.  All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out.  Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner.  And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.

For example, Activemining.  Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear.  You invested in that right?

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route.  Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

What's the warranty on Ants?  I see anecdotes here that make me think failure rates are running over 20%.  If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

Then you have the labor involved in keep acceptable uptime.  How many times do you want to drive to your hosting location at 3 am?  Do you like the idea of never leaving town on vacation?  Or how well do you sleep with the noise and heat and fire risk in your own home?

Ants have had a good run.  It's probably over now.  Mining hardware buys tend to run in cycles.  Early on, it's a good move.  Then it rapidly swings into losses.  If you are naive about what is entailed in running a profitable operation you can easily be losing money without realizing it.

Don't get me wrong, I've been mining at scales >0.5 % of the network for years now.  If you made the wrong decisions in 2013, bitcoin appreciation still made you huge profits.  Expecting to get bailed out that way again is naive.

Ants have a 90 Day warranty if you don't overclock them.

Personally I don't have a heat or fire risk in my situation, and always slap an extra fan besides the default Ants come with.

Once they're mining, I don't mess with them.  Only time I change anything is to maybe change pools once a week if that.

Did you factor cheap or no electricity costs after you posted?

[klondike_bar]

*smirk*   
yup - sure are

$1750 bitfury (~17BTC) has made over 18BTC already and is still running at 260GH
any antminer bought at >3BTC has already broken even
all my other antminers will break even by mid august at the lastest
my antminer S2 should pay off no later than october

at that point, I will still have >4TH of paid-for equipment mining 'free' by the end of 2014. If bitcoin is still around (i think it will) and value goes up (it will if it stays around) then these machines could be viable to operate right into early 2015 on a profit

You really don't understand the risk.  For every bitfury, there are 10x as many BFLs and Hashfasts.  I know of one person on this board that paid 6800 BTC to hashfast and still doesn't have a single Gh/s to show for it.  All it takes is one mistake to wipe you out.  Whether it's a defective board that starts a fire, downtime you never anticipated, an exchange that goes belly up with your money there are hundreds of ways to lose as a miner.  And only one mistake is needed to wipe you out.  you compare the risk of a pre-order to the price of a product that is actually delivered (which IME creates a profit)

For example, Activemining.  Ken has taken 20000 BTC and turned it into less than 1 Th/s of operating gear.  You invested in that right? I did - but i sold all my shares when btct was closing down

As I said before, it only takes one mistake to turn all your work into a loss.

But that's if you go the preorder route.  Everyone knows that preorders are uncertain delivery dates if at all.

If you order in hand, or anything that ships within a week from a reputable seller like Bitmain, you have a great shot at ROI.

I think 99% of Bitmain customers can attest to the low risk involved with buying from them.

What's the warranty on Ants?  I see anecdotes here that make me think failure rates are running over 20%.  If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.  Absolutely not. failure rates are far lower than 1/10 if not less than 1/40.

Then you have the labor involved in keep acceptable uptime.  How many times do you want to drive to your hosting location at 3 am?  Do you like the idea of never leaving town on vacation?  Or how well do you sleep with the noise and heat and fire risk in your own home?  ive set up my farm to run problem-free for days at a time, and with a remotre terminal for when i need to do something simple. Im working on making it weeks between visits, but i just like visiting it anyways

Ants have had a good run.  It's probably over now.  Mining hardware buys tend to run in cycles.  Early on, it's a good move.  Then it rapidly swings into losses.  If you are naive about what is entailed in running a profitable operation you can easily be losing money without realizing it.  antminer pricing is well paced to the bitcoin difficulty. still a good buy at current price, especially if you have coupons

Don't get me wrong, I've been mining at scales >0.5 % of the network for years now.  If you made the wrong decisions in 2013, bitcoin appreciation still made you huge profits.  Expecting to get bailed out that way again is naive.

[Trongersoll]

I just read the OP and it occurred to me that the poster doesn't know the meaning of the word "profit". 

[ionux]

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.

From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.

I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case.  Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment.  If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up.  I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. 

[mrdeposit]

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.

From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.

I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case.  Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment.  If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up.  I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. 

This^^^

[Syke]

I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case.  Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment.  If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up.  I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. 

Huge farms are built on wholesale/at-cost prices. Yes, those are nicely profitable. But retails prices for most miners are much more expensive, and unlikely to turn a profit in a reasonable amount of time.

[superresistant]

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.
From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.
I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case.  Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment.  If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up.  I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. 

Yeah great advice.
Mining is profitable everyone ! Keep buying hardware. Give money to ASIC manufacturers.
They sell you hardware to make you rich of course.

[ionux]

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.
From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.
I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case.  Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment.  If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up.  I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. 

Yeah great advice.
Mining is profitable everyone ! Keep buying hardware. Give money to ASIC manufacturers.
They sell you hardware to make you rich of course.

I'm happily giving money to Bitmain and happily making more in return.  It's called "investing".

But, I believe you are referring to all the pre-order crap so many asic companies are doing these days and I agree with that point.  Pre-orders are interest-free loans for the hardware makers.

[klondike_bar]

You can get 1TH for about $3k, $4k at the most.
From someone who just took the plunge it cost me $3500 and I'm mining about 10% more than the mining calculator predicted and I'll break even in about 3 weeks.

This.
I keep reading these "mining is not profitable" threads that pop up quite often and it's simply not the case.  Mining is hugely profitable given a high enough hashrate on readily available equipment.  If it weren't profitable, you wouldn't be seeing these super large private mining data centers popping up.  I honestly think people want to keep spreading this FUD to keep people out of mining and make more money for themselves. 

Yeah great advice.
Mining is profitable everyone ! Keep buying hardware. Give money to ASIC manufacturers.
They sell you hardware to make you rich of course.

when you invent a quality product, i expect you to sell it to me at cost. Why would i want you to make a profit off me?

its called capilaism. people buy machines at the posted price. some of the prices are low enough that a miner can get a tidy profit. other prices, particularly pre-orders, are overpriced and a bad investment.

I don't understand why everyone who says mining isnt profitable assumes it is a blanket statement as though an antminer is equally bad investment to a BFL product

[smooth]

If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

I know math is hard but if your breakeven is 60 days and you mine for 90 days you are making a profit.

If you can break even on an investment in 60 days, I'd say you are doing pretty well.

[Entropy-uc]

If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

I know math is hard but if your breakeven is 60 days and you mine for 90 days you are making a profit.

If you can break even on an investment in 60 days, I'd say you are doing pretty well.

Only if you steal everything else required to operate the machine.  Wait until the taxes and customs bills arrive for your Ants.

[mrdeposit]

If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

I know math is hard but if your breakeven is 60 days and you mine for 90 days you are making a profit.

If you can break even on an investment in 60 days, I'd say you are doing pretty well.

Only if you steal everything else required to operate the machine.  Wait until the taxes and customs bills arrive for your Ants.

Some of us don't have customs bills and only taxed on the profit... So yes, mining is profitable.

[smooth]

If your breakeven is 60 days and the hardware is a brick in 90, you aren't even covering your expenses.

I know math is hard but if your breakeven is 60 days and you mine for 90 days you are making a profit.

If you can break even on an investment in 60 days, I'd say you are doing pretty well.

Only if you steal everything else required to operate the machine.  Wait until the taxes and customs bills arrive for your Ants.

Either you breakeven in 60 days or you don't. In reality 90-120 days has been more accurate. That's still a pretty good investment.

No import taxes in the US.

[Entropy-uc]

No import taxes in the US.

LOL.  I have a stack of bills from DHL for import duties on miners that say otherwise.  I takes a month or 2 for the bills to catch up with the shipments.

Sounds like quite a few of you are in for an unpleasant surprise.

[smooth]

LOL.  I have a stack of bills from DHL for import duties on miners that say otherwise.  I takes a month or 2 for the bills to catch up with the shipments.

Sounds like quite a few of you are in for an unpleasant surprise.

You should not be getting charged import duties on miners from China to the US. The rate on computer equipment and components is 0%. I have no idea what the rules are if you bought from KnC or someone else not in China.

DHL might be billing you a customs clearance service charge (this is distinct from taxes) or something else, or DHL or the shipper might be misclassifying the item.

It is a lot longer than a month or two since I started ordering miner from China to the US. No tax bills.

[ChuckBuck]

No import taxes in the US.

LOL.  I have a stack of bills from DHL for import duties on miners that say otherwise.  I takes a month or 2 for the bills to catch up with the shipments.

Sounds like quite a few of you are in for an unpleasant surprise.

Maybe you should give Bitmain a whirl, so you can get the benefits all of us are seeing.

Fast delivery, good chance to ROI in a couple of months, stable miners, and no worries of taxes if in the US of A.