What's your gambling system?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Simple math shows that it is impossible to beat casino. Nevertheless, there are bunch of systems that lots of people believe in and relay on. Such as martingale. That brings them to huge losses that they won't have if they would treat gambling as fun with luck rather than a way to earn by finding the best system (most of them require huge input capital).

I've started to learn to code and I've found it fun for me to code simulations for various strategies. I've coded simulation for martingale that shows that it has lower odds of winning than putting all your money in 1 bet and going home with profit or 0. Here is my thread about it together with few improvements that were brought by users and coded too deeper in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5112216.msg49832531#msg49832531

In this thread I've decided to code every gambling system You have to show that none of them will beat casino. Feel free to post here your system and I'll code it for you in free time. I've made this thread self-moderated to avoid signature spam such as "I like gambling systems because i can earn using them". But don't worry. If your post will be on topic it won't be removed.


List of systems:

||	nr.	||	name	||	explanation	||	simulation	||	short info	||
||	1	||	Martingale	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	double bet after loss	||
||	2	||	Martingale v2	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	triple bet after loss	||
||	3	||	Martingale v3	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	betting with 75% win rate	||
||	4	||	Martingale v4	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	Fibonacci progression	||
||	5	||	Martingale v5	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	Reset bet after winning twice in a row	||
||	6	||	Martingale v6	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	libert19 variation	||
||	7	||	Martingale v7	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	reverse martingale	||

[1713540209]

1713540209

[1713540209]

1713540209

[sweetbet]

I like to play Roulette, and my favorite bet is the dozen bet which covers 12 numbers in one wager. Place 2 x dozen bets and you cover 24 numbers with 2 wagers.

[libert19]

In every 'method' out there, you will eventually get busted. Anyway, I will write my couple of methods where I had bit of luck with.

1) Go to dice site, where it gives you option of lower/above sides, reset on win, double on every lose, when you lose 5 rolls consecutively, change to the other side.

You guessed it right. It's martingale with bit of twist which sometimes works.

Here is thread I made for the same: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5126416.0

2) Roll with 75% win chances. Double on lose, make the winning bet twice and reset to base bet.

Example,

Start with,

0.1 eos — you lost

Double the bet

0.2 eos — you lost

Double again

0.4 eos — you win

Repeat the winning bet

0.4 eos — you win

If you lose the repeat winning bet then double the next bet. Ie.

Bet with 0.8 eos.

Repeat.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I like to play Roulette, and my favorite bet is the dozen bet which covers 12 numbers in one wager. Place 2 x dozen bets and you cover 24 numbers with 2 wagers.

I've decided not to delete this post because maybe i wasn't precise enough. I'm talking about gambling system such as martingale. Not your favourite bet type - and all of them have the same return in infinite rolls such as i showed in one of my threads - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5111520.msg49808336#msg49808336 - 972 $ out of 1000$ on average out of every roll no matter if you bet on single number, first dozen or red. There is nothing to code for you. (1-0.972) * x rolls * bet - and you can calculate your expected loss. If you lose more than you had bad luck if less means that you were lucky.

[...]

1)Well from the point of view of probability there is no difference if you will switch from red to black or not. So it won't affect simulation. As you said. Sometimes it works - yea 50% times so there is no difference.

2) Martingale with 0.75% win rate... I'll code it for you in free time but in the min time you can take a look at this - martingale with tripling instead of doubling.. You can precise what would be your dream come true portfolio while going with this strategy. 1 000 000 times initial bet? I mean if you are going to bet 0.5 eos first bet than how much money would you bring to casino to feel safe? 500 000 eos? And when would you like to stop? 100% profit?





 

[Haunebu]

Preferred systems:

- Going all in everytime
- Oscar's Grind( Goal is to reach +1 unit and reset )

Among these 3, I stick to the first one majority of the time while I play around with Oscar's Grind now and then. I usually focus primarily on sports betting, but I dabble with these strategies whenever I gamble in casino sites now and then for fun.

[stadus]

I play sports betting, and the strategy that I used is flat betting, the method that I hate is martingale as I got busted a lot of times using that method, but I don't totally close the possibility of using martingale method as I believe it's still useful if you use it at the right event and at the right timing.

What I like with flat betting is that my bankroll would last long if I will not have a success in betting.
If I like to go long term, I usually raise a decent bankroll and just bet at least 2% of my total bankroll in every bet, this needs discipline and I'm proud to say I was able to do it.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

If I like to go long term, I usually raise a decent bankroll and just bet at least 2% of my total bankroll in every bet, this needs discipline and I'm proud to say I was able to do it.

With probability similar to roulette (house edge close to 2,7%) you will lose 80% of your portfolio after 2977 bets. With such a large sample the distribution will be statistical. Your strategy is similar to "I'll transfer x amount of my money to casino weekly because i like them". The longer you are in casino the distribution is closer to statistical - means casino wins. I don't need to code that. It only needs very simple mathematical formula.

Preferred systems:

- Going all in everytime
- Oscar's Grind( Goal is to reach +1 unit and reset )

Among these 3, I stick to the first one majority of the time while I play around with Oscar's Grind now and then. I usually focus primarily on sports betting, but I dabble with these strategies whenever I gamble in casino sites now and then for fun.

Can you specify what's it about?

[GreatArkansas]

Preferred systems:
~...
- Oscar's Grind( Goal is to reach +1 unit and reset )
Among these 3, I stick to the first one majority of the time while I play around with Oscar's Grind now and then.
(....)

Can you specify what's it about?

This system is quite a low risk and there's something like Martingale style.
1 bet unit is for 1 bet won, once you already 1 unit you bet, you will reset.
Example:
1 unit bet = Won, so you will reset.
1 unit bet => 1 unit bet lost => 1 unit bet lost => So , you already 3 units lost bet, continue to bet 1 unit until you get a win.
after 3 units bet lost, your next bet is still 1 unit => win => so, your lost is already 2 units. Here, you can add 1 unit to your initial bet, so.
2 units bet => lost (so, you already 4 units lost), continue => 2 units bet => Won, so you are still 2 units bet lost => increase your bet again to 1 unit, so.
3 units bet now=> and you won. 2units - 3 units = 1 unit WON. and reset now since you won 1 unit.

Watch more here about this system. This is something a good strategy for roulette games or maybe on dice games.

[mu_enrico]

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;
- Reverse martingale using the highest % win chance and then increase the bet if win (with % increase less than the payout). For example: use 98% win rate and 1.02% payout. If win, increase the bet by 0.5% (less than 1.02%). Reset if loss and x consecutive wins (try 80).

[Tytanowy Janusz]

2) Roll with 75% win chances. Double on lose, make the winning bet twice and reset to base bet.

As i already had working code for roulette i've decided to modify it. To reach 75% win chance i've set my simulation to the situation in which you spread your bet on 27 numbers giving 27/37=73% win rate with 36/27 payout.

Outcome is horrible. Much worse than with martingale:

I've started with portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 100000

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 278 gamblers out of 10000

Only 2.78 % gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. How about bigger portfolios:

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

None of gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. Looks like bigger portfolio is making it even worse

Code:

Limit: 
100
target: 
110
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 4735 gamblers out of 10000

47% gamblers was able to win 10%. It sould be 90%.

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;
- Reverse martingale using the highest % win chance and then increase the bet if win (with % increase less than the payout). For example: use 98% win rate and 1.02% payout. If win, increase the bet by 0.5% (less than 1.02%). Reset if loss and x consecutive wins (try 80).

Thanks. This may bring interesting results. I'll do it in free time.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;

Well i don't have impressive results.

Code:

Limit: 
1000000
target: 
2000000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.

How about lower limits?

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 3460 gamblers out of 100000

Only 3,46% gamblers was able to double. With original martingale 39% gamblers beat casino.

That's because Fibonacci function grow too slow. Means that after 10 lost bets next bet will be 89. Total loss will be 232 what gives net loss. That way you are constantly going down with your wallet.

[libert19]

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

You mean that i need to win twice in a raw to reset bet size to default? Because i'm not sure if i understand it correctly.

My simulation is simple martingale but not with 50% winrate but 75% win rate. The payout is accordingly lower:

[libert19]

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

You mean that i need to win twice in a raw to reset bet size to default? Because i'm not sure if i understand it correctly.

Yes that's right. Reset bet amount after winning twice in a raw.

Edit: what results did your simulations yield?

[eternalgloom]

I've coded simulation for martingale that shows that it has lower odds of winning than putting all your money in 1 bet and going home with profit or 0.

Sorry that I'm cherry picking this statement out of your entire topic, but that's actually something I'm going to use when someone asks me whether Martingale is a good idea.
It's indeed much better in a wide variety of scenarios (not just with Martingale), to just place one bet that gives the payout you want, instead of doing multiple bets.

I reckon it would also be a good tool to prevent yourself getting addicted, but only if you sick to the one bet.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Yes that's right. Reset bet amount after winning twice in a raw.

Edit: what results did your simulations yield?

Just coded it - I was quite busy last days. Outcome is much better but still worse than betting all your money in single bet. Here are results:

I've input the same data as before. Portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet as starting point.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 6049 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 172 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 6,0% of gamblers was able to double from 500$. Much better than 0 last time. I've added time that average winner spent in casino. 172 h for 500 $ = 2,9$/h is not what you want to get from gambling. Especially with 94% probability of fail.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 7294 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 15 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 72,9 % gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. It should be close to 90%. How about bigger portfolios:

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 738 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 766 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

7,4% of gamblers was able to beat casino and earn 10% of portfolio. Much better than 0 last time but still not close to oryginal martingale or single bet strategy. Again - bigger portfolio makes it worse. 766 hours in casino to earn 1000$. 1,3$/h with 92% probability of fail and loosing 10000$ (every gambler who do not beat casino zero his porfolio).

Code:

Limit: 
100
target: 
110
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8092 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

81% gamblers was able to win 10%. It should be 90%. Looks like the less money you bring to the casino the bigger are your odds to win certain % of your portfolio.

[libert19]

Thanks! I have discovered another 'strategy' where I had bit of luck last few days . I would love to have your results on it.


It works pretty much similar, just that after making winning bet twice in a row you don't reset to base bet rather come to it by decreasing by half until you reach base bet.

Start with 75% win chance, on lose double the next bet, make winning bet twice, decrease next bet after second winning bet by half.

Base bet: 0.1 eos (lose)

Next bet: 0.2 eos (lose)

Next bet: 0.4 eos

On win repeat the winning bet

next bet: 0. 4 eos

(now, don't go to base bet after win, go to it by decreasing it by half)

So your next bet: 0.2 eos

If you win

Next bet: 0.1 eos

Else

Next bet: 0.4 eos

Repeat..


It pains me to write, easier done than said 😂

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Start with 75% win chance, on lose double the next bet, make winning bet twice, decrease next bet after second winning bet by half.

Again. Better outcome but still worse than regular martingale or betting all your money in single bet:

I've input the same data as before. Portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet as starting point.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 27633 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 21 hours in casino (1 bet per minute,)

Only 27,6% of gamblers was able to double from 500$. 21h spent in casino for average winner. 500 $ / 21h = 23,8$/h with 72.4 % probability of fail and loosing 1000$.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8260 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 82,6% gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio (slightly better than last time -72,9 % ):

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8049 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 25 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

80,5% of gamblers was able to beat casino and earn 10% of portfolio (that's much better than last time - 7.4%). This strategy seems to be much more portfolio size resistant - that's because its much more aggressive.

[libert19]

Thanks again! Seems like going all in in single bet seems best way to go lol, either double or go home.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

@libert19
There is no need of quoting my whole post. Just add @Tytanowy Janusz or quote a sentence you are referring too so the whole topic won't look like rubbish. You have 24 h to correct your post otherwise i'll delete it to keep whole topic clean for people willing to read it.

Thanks again! Seems like going all in in single bet seems best way to go lol, either double or go home.

In roulette there is ~970 $ return out of every 1000$ bet on average (with statistic distribution) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5111520.msg49808336#msg49808336. No matter how will you place it. If you will place it in one bet than your average return will be 970$ (3%*1000$ * 1 bet = 30$ for casino). If you will place 100$ 100 times (win, loss, win, loss, loss, win etc) than your average return will be 700$ (3% * 100$ *100 bets = 300$ for casino). The best strategy than is to limits your betting volume to minimum (by placing all your money in single bet). That's makes your outcome maximum far from statistic distribution what gives you the biggest chance to win.