🏈🏈 The Essential NFL Thread 🏈🏈 - new poll every week

[nutildah]

NFL Season 100

I know the NFL isn't extraordinarily popular on the forum so I thought I'd try to make a thread to kind of collect the thoughts of the few fans that are here, in my attempt to create Wall Order-esque environment. Which means anything goes but the primary focus is of course on things pertaining to the American National Football League.

Last season I ran a Super Bowl Poll in which I correctly picked all 7 playoffs games, including the Super Bowl. I'm going to be picking one game a week and will run a poll for that particular game as well, but I have to add the caveat that I'm better at picking winners much later in the season. Early on, anything could happen, and its hard to gauge the strength of teams at the beginning of the season.

The season opener, set for Sept. 5th, 8:20 EST, and will feature the league's oldest rivalry, the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears. Sportsbet.io currently has the line at -3.5 Bears, with the payout slightly in their favor (1.98x for Bears vs. 1.81 for Packers).

I suspect more money has been going to the Packers because they have a slight advantage traditionally in the matchup between the 2, but the Bears had a pretty stellar record last year (12-4) compared to the Packers (6-9-1). Several sportsbook have the line at exactly -3 Bears, which also explains the payout differential on Sportsbet.

For this game, its a tough call, but I'm going to with the Bears at -3. Its a home game for them, first game of the year, big rivalry, the crowd will be pissed if they lose. Rogers is one of the best QBs in the league but I think this will be the year that Trubisky really comes into his own -- he's only been around for 2 seasons. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the game outcome falls exactly on the line, with the Bears winning by 3, so taking that extra half point is kind of ballsy move.

Also, just for fun, here's Sportsbet's current Super Bowl winner odds, so we can reference how they shift over the course of the season.



I never bet on Super Bowl odds this early in the season, but I will personally be rooting for the Rams, just as a public disclosure of interests...

[DaveF]

I just put in my vote for Green Bay.
Both are good teams, but in the preseason GB just seems more put together.
Can't really explain it, but in my mind they just seem a very small bit better.

Let's see what happens Thursday.

-Dave

[nutildah]

I just put in my vote for Green Bay.
Both are good teams, but in the preseason GB just seems more put together.
Can't really explain it, but in my mind they just seem a very small bit better.

Let's see what happens Thursday.

-Dave

To be honest I haven't been paying a whole lot of attention to the pre season this year. I got burned trying to bet on it a couple times last year, so this year I held off, knowing that the games are meaningless and who knows what jumble of reserves you'll get on the field at any given moment.

Normally I would have bet on the Packers in this situation, but I think the Bears are coming up and the Packers are headed down. Plus its a home game for the Bears, that's why I have to go with them.

[dantee1]

My vote goes to Chicago Bears for the obvious reason  

The Bears took a huge step forward last year under rookie coach Matt Nagy, going from 5-11 in 2017 to 12-4 in 2018. And a lot of that was attributable to the stellar play of the defense and late addition Khalil Mack. A lot is being made of the loss of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who took the Denver Broncos head coaching job.

Chuck Pagano is Fangio’s replacement and while he isn’t as widely regarded as Fangio, Pagano has lots of great players to work with, including Mack, Akiem Hicks, Roquan Smith and cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara.

[morvillz7z]

Wooo we are over 50 views total lol, i ain't complaining though i won't miss the spammy herd of shitposters one bit.

As for the game, as much as it pains me to say (teams i support and root for are Packers and the Seahawks) Green Bay have a very slim chance at winning this one. They had a great second-half comeback win in last season's opener but it was at home. Considering we only had 1 away win for the entire season with almost no notable additions on defense (- CLAY MATTHEWS), against one of the best defenses in the league, i expect nothing less than Aaron Rodgers getting sack after sack or getting rid of the ball early and often. Bears defense rough him up pretty bad last year.

The other obvious question mark for Green Bay is the new headcoach - Matt LaFleur and what type of plays is he going to run and if and whether Rodgers will stick with those or call his own. I just don't see it, plus it's a divisional game, Bears will win probably with more than 3pts.

Only way Packers win tonight is Bears' new kicker is as bad as Cody Parkey. 

[South Park]

Wooo we are over 50 views total lol, i ain't complaining though i won't miss the spammy herd of shitposters one bit.

As for the game, as much as it pains me to say (teams i support and root for are Packers and the Seahawks) Green Bay have a very slim chance at winning this one. They had a great second-half comeback win in last season's opener but it was at home. Considering we only had 1 away win for the entire season with almost no notable additions on defense (- CLAY MATTHEWS), against one of the best defenses in the league, i expect nothing less than Aaron Rodgers getting sack after sack or getting rid of the ball early and often. Bears defense rough him up pretty bad last year.

The other obvious question mark for Green Bay is the new headcoach - Matt LaFleur and what type of plays is he going to run and if and whether Rodgers will stick with those or call his own. I just don't see it, plus it's a divisional game, Bears will win probably with more than 3pts.

Only way Packers win tonight is Bears' new kicker is as bad as Cody Parkey. 

To add to all of this Aaron Rodgers did not took a single snap during the whole preseason and while many reasons were given about this I am a little bit worried that he is not 100%, and while he pulled a miracle on one leg during the last season against the bears we cannot really expect that to happen every week, however the bears have a new defensive coordinator and while he is good we do not know if he is going to exploit all the talent that he has at his disposal, so when I take everything in consideration I will give this game to the bears.

[wheelz1200]

My guess is on the bears.  First off home field is extremely important, and 2 aaron rodgers if I remember correctly hasn't had a td pass against them last year in chicago.  Not that last year determines this year but that chicago d is for real.  Should be a fun game either way

[ralle14]

I don't follow NFL recently but despite of the bad preseason results from the Chicago Bears I still think they'll win against the Packers. With that said, I have a bet on Bears -3.5 I would take -3 if sportsbet have it but they rarely offer spreads without the half point. Packers is also a strong team that have the potential to do an upset but i'm slightly biased because of the Bears having the better results from last season.

[nutildah]

Well, it would appear we were all wrong    except for Dave and the other 2 people who voted for Green Bay in the poll!   Good job Dave F.

Here's what we have going on this Sunday:



I'm going to have to do some research before deciding on anything for sure, but immediately I like the Rams at -2.5 over the Panthers.

[wheelz1200]

Yeah I was off on that one.  Surprised the bears put up such a poor offensive performance, trubisky looked like a rookie quarterback out there.  My pick for this weekend would be the jets at home -2.5, I also like Kansas city -3.5 at Jacksonville.  Probably will go 0-2 but those are my 2 picks

[TheRealWiseInvestor]

My nfl picks for week 1

Packers +3 won

Dolphins +7
Buffalo ML
Panthers ML
Bengals +9.5
Lions -2.5
Giants +7.5
49ers ML
Broncos -2

[morvillz7z]

I voted Packers too, even though with my comment i was trashing their defense and Rodgers himself. It's funny how a single deep throw and a three-minute drive touchdown can change completely the momentum of the game.

Browns -5^1/2 is my pick for Sunday, call me a bandwagoner but i really like Baker Mayfield.

[Flagship11]

With the Super Bowl winning New England Patriots signing Antonio Brown to 1-year $15 million, its no shock to see the change in odds
From 7.4 to 5.7 after news of the agreement



Sportsbet offers alot of NFL prop bets in for those looking for team totals/division/conference winners
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/american-football/usa/nfl/nfl-5d5f8b7c03e44e78896c93a7

[morvillz7z]

AB should check himself in a psychiatric clinic first, he needs therapy, not football if you ask me. All his bullshit of late, i'm surprised Patriots took a chance on him. Which locker-room needs all this drama? Dude got to training camp on a hot-air balloon with frostbite feet. lmao

With the Super Bowl winning New England Patriots signing Antonio Brown to 1-year $15 million, its no shock to see the change in odds
From 7.4 to 5.7 after news of the agreement

One more reason why people should go with either Rams or Chiefs.

[DaveF]

What is kind of funny (or sad depending on how you look at it) was why I for GB.

I can't put my finger on it, just watching them preseason was like watching a well put together show.

It looked to me that any of them could have been in the locker room during practice, stuck on the toilet due to a bad burrito for dinner the day before, but he knew exactly where everyone else was on the field.

Can't explain it beyond that.

Back to this week

Jets over Buffalo
Giants over Dallas (possibly the +7 is bit much)

No other thoughts other than that.
I'm actually more interested in the MotoAmerica Races in NJ this weekend.

-Dave

[DaveF]

Jets over Buffalo
Giants over Dallas (possibly the +7 is bit much)

No other thoughts other than that.
I'm actually more interested in the MotoAmerica Races in NJ this weekend.

-Dave

OK, so I was wrong on those 2.
Seriously I think the Giants were looking to loose.
I stopped watching it hurt too much.

But the races were good :-)

-Dave
 

[exbet.io]

Great to find an NFL thread on Gambling!
Really enjoyed yesterday's games, roll on the rest of the season.

[nutildah]

OK, so I was wrong on those 2.
Seriously I think the Giants were looking to loose.
I stopped watching it hurt too much.

But the races were good :-)

-Dave
 

NFL games are notoriously hard to call, which makes it all the more fun to watch. My friend, who knows his stuff pretty well, insists on betting on college games -- for some reason or another they are just easier to call. I guess when a blowout is predicted to happen, it usually happens by a wider margin than previously suspected.

I moved to a place that has terrible internet connectivity, and got sick with a pretty rancid case of food poisoning :/ missed out on the games today. Next week I hope to be back in action. It was good to read that the Rams eeked out a win. Can't say the same for my fantasy team, however. Its looking grim unless Michael Thomas (NO) can put on a great performance.

[wheelz1200]

Yeah I was off on that one.  Surprised the bears put up such a poor offensive performance, trubisky looked like a rookie quarterback out there.  My pick for this weekend would be the jets at home -2.5, I also like Kansas city -3.5 at Jacksonville.  Probably will go 0-2 but those are my 2 picks

Was looking good on the jets until the 2nd half lol, that was a crazy comeback from the Bill's.  Hopefully the 1st half Bill's show up for the giants game next week   and yeah anytime kansas city is only favored by less than a touchdown I would take them all day everyday.  They are that good.  Might lose a couple games but not many.

Saints in tonight's game for the money line.  Let's see how that one goes.

[exbet.io]

Just watching in the Saints game, looking forward to the match-up between two QBs at the opposite ends of their careers. Brees is all class, Watson, interesting to see how he develops this year.

Good luck with your moneyline bet.