🏈🏈 The Essential NFL Thread 🏈🏈 - new poll every week

[tyKiwanuka]

So the Seahawks have brought back Beast Mode, I love that. Not expecting great production from him, but seeing him again in action is nice.

Those odds for SF@SEA look a bit strange to me (at first sight). Seahawks weren't very convincing in their last showings, but being solid underdog is surprising me. Assuming Saints/Packers will win their (earlier) games, this game would be extremely important for the 49ers. With a win they could get that #1 spot, which they surely would want, but which wouldn't be good for them in the end as I wrote the other day.
Now with Saints/Packers winning, Seahawks don't have that much to gain. They will take wild card spot no matter what and if was Pete Carroll, I would tell my team to lose. This would mean that instead of a home game against the Vikings, I would get an away game at Eagles/Cowboys. Looks bad at first, but imo more winable than facing the Vikings at home. But after that, instead of going to New Orleans, I would have to go to San Francisco (or even GB, if MIN wins at NO), which is a way easier away game to win than going to NO. And I have just played them two weeks ago, got some nice insights and lost on purpose. I would take my chances going that route and sacrifice that playoff home game.
So these odds for 49ers look kind of low-ish, but imo these are indeed good odds. 49ers are better on the road and they have just so much more to play for (in their minds). Will wait with a bet until Saints/Packers is finished. Maybe I am overthinking here though

Looks like Bills are going to rest lots of players as they are stuck at wild card spot #5 seed. This is already priced in, but I still like the Jets ML in this one. This is all about motivation and Jets should be super motivated for this, while for the Bills this is just some sort of preseason game.

Eagles should struggle mightily in getting that needed W at the Giants and I can see either Panthers or Lions pulling an upset and putting all playoff scenarios upside down. Falcons at Bucs should make for a fun game and I expect lots of points in this one, so over could be a good bet.

[1713862290]

1713862290

[DireWolfM14]

So the Seahawks have brought back Beast Mode, I love that. Not expecting great production from him, but seeing him again in action is nice.

Those odds for SF@SEA look a bit strange to me (at first sight). Seahawks weren't very convincing in their last showings, but being solid underdog is surprising me. Assuming Saints/Packers will win their (earlier) games, this game would be extremely important for the 49ers. With a win they could get that #1 spot, which they surely would want, but which wouldn't be good for them in the end as I wrote the other day.

The beast hasn't been very beastly the last couple of years, but yeah, it's good to see him back.  I hope the 9ers will keep him from hulking up the way he used to in the past.  I tend to agree with you about the odds, nothing but damn statistics.  I think a part of it stems from the injuries the Seahawks have suffered.  Most of their starters are practicing this week, even though a few were out last week.  I'm sure they want to play, but they are banged up and may not be 100% on their game.

It's hard not to be biased, but I like the 9ers in this game.  There are so many play-off implications for other NFC teams, many will be rooting for the Seahawks this week, lol.

I also half agree with you that the 9ers seem to play better with a chip on their shoulders, and might play better football in the playoffs if they lose this weekend.  It certainly would make wildcard weekend more entertaining.

Now with Saints/Packers winning, Seahawks don't have that much to gain. They will take wild card spot no matter what and if was Pete Carroll, I would tell my team to lose. This would mean that instead of a home game against the Vikings, I would get an away game at Eagles/Cowboys. Looks bad at first, but imo more winable than facing the Vikings at home. But after that, instead of going to New Orleans, I would have to go to San Francisco (or even GB, if MIN wins at NO), which is a way easier away game to win than going to NO. And I have just played them two weeks ago, got some nice insights and lost on purpose. I would take my chances going that route and sacrifice that playoff home game.

You would rather play the 9ers in away, than Minnesota at home?  I'm not sure I would take that gamble.  Carroll may not have a choice in the matter, but I think he would rather win the division and secure at least one home game, even if it against the better wild-card team.  I can't see Carroll ever telling his team to lose, that just wouldn't happen.  But if he was to choose that strategy all he would have to do is bench Russell Wilson for the week.

So these odds for 49ers look kind of low-ish, but imo these are indeed good odds. 49ers are better on the road and they have just so much more to play for (in their minds). Will wait with a bet until Saints/Packers is finished. Maybe I am overthinking here though

This is really the only game with two well-matched teams, and significant playoff implications this weekend.  All the other NFC contenders need the 9ers to lose to make their way closer to top seeding.  In the AFC everything is pretty much set.  The Pats could lose the #2 seed to the Chiefs, but that would require a miracle from Miami. 

Looks like Bills are going to rest lots of players as they are stuck at wild card spot #5 seed. This is already priced in, but I still like the Jets ML in this one. This is all about motivation and Jets should be super motivated for this, while for the Bills this is just some sort of preseason game.

Eagles should struggle mightily in getting that needed W at the Giants and I can see either Panthers or Lions pulling an upset and putting all playoff scenarios upside down. Falcons at Bucs should make for a fun game and I expect lots of points in this one, so over could be a good bet.

You might be right about the Jets @ Bills, that's a potential upset.  The other one is Chicago at Minnesota.  The Vikings are locked into the sixth seed and have absolutely nothing to gain by winning and nothing to lose by losing this weekend.

Baltimore is actually the underdog going into the weekend, giving the Steelers a prayer.  They would still need the Titans to lose @ Texans.

[tyKiwanuka]

Now with Saints/Packers winning, Seahawks don't have that much to gain. They will take wild card spot no matter what and if was Pete Carroll, I would tell my team to lose. This would mean that instead of a home game against the Vikings, I would get an away game at Eagles/Cowboys. Looks bad at first, but imo more winable than facing the Vikings at home. But after that, instead of going to New Orleans, I would have to go to San Francisco (or even GB, if MIN wins at NO), which is a way easier away game to win than going to NO. And I have just played them two weeks ago, got some nice insights and lost on purpose. I would take my chances going that route and sacrifice that playoff home game.

You would rather play the 9ers in away, than Minnesota at home?  I'm not sure I would take that gamble.  Carroll may not have a choice in the matter, but I think he would rather win the division and secure at least one home game, even if it against the better wild-card team.  I can't see Carroll ever telling his team to lose, that just wouldn't happen.  But if he was to choose that strategy all he would have to do is bench Russell Wilson for the week.

Once the early games are over, Seatlle will know what they are up to. Assuming everything goes as planned (i.e. Saints/Packers win), this is the two scenarios for Seattle:

1) Seattle wins:



2) Seattle loses:



Now I would take scenario 2 as it's the easier route. If you just want to win a playoff game and have a home game doing it, then just win against the 49ers, probably win against the Vikings and go out against NO. If you want to win the Superbowl, just lose to the 49ers. Seattle would still be meeting NO in conference final, but I would choose to avoid having to play NO in their dome as long as possible as that would be the hardest place to win. Green Bay I don't rate this strong this season. Same goes for 49ers playing at home.

As you mention, it is hard for a coach to tell pro-players to lose a game. But that is what I would do  

[bbc.reporter]

Is this real? Baltimore is +2 in their home stadium versus the Steelers hehehe. What do the sportsbooks know? Lamar will not play?

[nutildah]

Is this real? Baltimore is +2 in their home stadium versus the Steelers hehehe. What do the sportsbooks know? Lamar will not play?

Baltimore has clenched all xyz letters so maybe they are resting Jackson. He's a class act, got his offensive linemen Rolexes for Christmas. Pittsburgh is still vying for a wildcard spot, which makes this game more important than the SF/Seattle game, which it is why its this week's poll of the week:

New Poll

12/29 1:00 PM

[117] PITTSBURGH
[118] BALTIMORE

Last regular season poll! Line is currently -2 Pittsburgh; poll, as usual, is for moneyline. If Jackson doesn't play, RGIII will step in as backup, which will keep things interesting. Ingram may also sit out, don't know for sure. But both players benched could explain the line favoring Pittsburgh.

[tyKiwanuka]

Is this real? Baltimore is +2 in their home stadium versus the Steelers hehehe. What do the sportsbooks know? Lamar will not play?

It's already confirmed since Monday, that Jackson and some other starters won't play.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be among starters not playing against Steelers in season finale, coach John Harbaugh announced. Others not playing Sunday include guard Marshal Yanda, RB Mark Ingram, S Earl Thomas and DT Brandon Williams.

https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1209196060373073932

Robert Griffin III will start at quarterback for Ravens against Steelers. Third-string QB Trace McSorley could also see time, coach John Harbaugh said.

https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1209197021955022848

There are coaches that like to do it and others that do not. I would not rest any players, especially not, if I have a first round bye. It means my top guys have a three week break and I would like them to keep focused and be in some of rythm. If injuries happen, well, c'est la vie.

[Hueristic]

Chiefs up 10 - zip so far. Game needs to stay at this pace so I can earn some easy BTC.

Yeah that was an easy bet, under 7 point spread against the bears even though they were home was too low.  Tomorrow is the game that I cant wait to watch.  Minn vs GB is always a good game.  Just think that green bay +5.5 is just a little too much right?  Or am i missing something here.

I scraped the chiefs D off the wire for my playoffs on both teams.
That was a good move.

What I can't figure out is why the Seahawks don't have an ^X next to their name.  I can't imagine a scenario where they don't get a wild card spot.

Seahawks get a wild card spot, if Saints and Packers win their next games, no matter if they win or lose againts 49ers.
Seahawks will be #2 seed, if they win and Saints win, but Packers lose.
Seahawks will be #1 seed, if they win and both Saints and Packers lose.

I have disregarded ties in this calculation

Thanks, trying to figure this shit out is painful these days.

Well my teams got 1st and 3rd. I played Barkley/Drake  on one team shit they they kick ass!

[wheelz1200]

Is this real? Baltimore is +2 in their home stadium versus the Steelers hehehe. What do the sportsbooks know? Lamar will not play?

Not only lamar but a lot of the starters wont play.  There is nothing to play for in this game so baltimore is just trying to not get guys hurt in this game.  Pittsburg will be playing for their season to continue so there is a lot of urgency for them to win.  With that being said I can still see baltimore winning this one, I just dont like Pittsburghs qb situation.  Maybe the under is the way to go

[DireWolfM14]

Is this real? Baltimore is +2 in their home stadium versus the Steelers hehehe. What do the sportsbooks know? Lamar will not play?

Not only lamar but a lot of the starters wont play.  There is nothing to play for in this game so baltimore is just trying to not get guys hurt in this game.  Pittsburg will be playing for their season to continue so there is a lot of urgency for them to win.  With that being said I can still see baltimore winning this one, I just dont like Pittsburghs qb situation.  Maybe the under is the way to go

I voted for the Steelers in this week's poll, but now I'm not sure.  The Ravens still have to play a lot of their starters.  Even with their biggest stars sitting this one out, I think they are the better team.  The offence may not be quite as productive, but their defense isn't likely to look much different.

I was looking at the NFL's playoff picture page this morning and was surprised to see that tRaiders still have a prayer.  They need to beat the Broncos and they also need the Steeler, the Titans, and the Jags to lose.  All are possibilities, but if they do get into the playoffs they would be the team with the worst point differential.

[South Park]

It's already confirmed since Monday, that Jackson and some other starters won't play.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will be among starters not playing against Steelers in season finale, coach John Harbaugh announced. Others not playing Sunday include guard Marshal Yanda, RB Mark Ingram, S Earl Thomas and DT Brandon Williams.

https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1209196060373073932

Robert Griffin III will start at quarterback for Ravens against Steelers. Third-string QB Trace McSorley could also see time, coach John Harbaugh said.

https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1209197021955022848

There are coaches that like to do it and others that do not. I would not rest any players, especially not, if I have a first round bye. It means my top guys have a three week break and I would like them to keep focused and be in some of rythm. If injuries happen, well, c'est la vie.

Agreed, if there is one team that is hot and would like the SB to happen tomorrow that would be the Ravens, every other team could make use of the bye week and not playing their starters for the last week of the season to make some adjustments and to get back some injured players, but when you are so hot resting your players for three weeks can be counterproductive.

While the circumstances are different this reminds me of the 2009 Colts which were 14-0 and in week 16 at home the head coach decided to bench Peyton Manning in the third quarter forfeiting the possibility of a perfect season, the fans, the media and even the players were understandably mad about this.

And finally if all of that was not enough, they will play the Steelers next week which had been their main rivals for as long as the Ravens have existed in a game which will determine the chances of the Steelers to move to the playoffs, and I do not know about you but I do not want any team from my division on the playoffs because as we know anything can happen in those games.

[wheelz1200]

Is this real? Baltimore is +2 in their home stadium versus the Steelers hehehe. What do the sportsbooks know? Lamar will not play?

Not only lamar but a lot of the starters wont play.  There is nothing to play for in this game so baltimore is just trying to not get guys hurt in this game.  Pittsburg will be playing for their season to continue so there is a lot of urgency for them to win.  With that being said I can still see baltimore winning this one, I just dont like Pittsburghs qb situation.  Maybe the under is the way to go

I voted for the Steelers in this week's poll, but now I'm not sure.  The Ravens still have to play a lot of their starters.  Even with their biggest stars sitting this one out, I think they are the better team.  The offence may not be quite as productive, but their defense isn't likely to look much different.

I was looking at the NFL's playoff picture page this morning and was surprised to see that tRaiders still have a prayer.  They need to beat the Broncos and they also need the Steeler, the Titans, and the Jags to lose.  All are possibilities, but if they do get into the playoffs they would be the team with the worst point differential.

Yeah a lot has to fall right for oakland to get in but as they say, that's why you play the games.  Even if they get in it would take wins against kansas city, and probably both the patriots and baltimore.  Then they would have to beat the best from the NFC.  That is an insanely hard schedule to bust through.  They are as good as dead in the water.

[Hueristic]

Voting in this poll is no better than guessing.
Baltimore not playing for a win makes it a waste of time.
Lets change the poll.

[nutildah]

Can't change the poll, we're already 5 votes in. The line is pretty tight, and Steelers need the game to get a wildcard spot. The 2 teams for the other exciting matchup are already shoe-ins for the playoffs.

[Gyfts]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28377014/antonio-brown-works-saints

Oh damn watch out folks.

Wonder what this does for the Superbowl win odds considering Brees has Michael Thomas AND Antonio Brown to throw to. I would put good money on the Saints to take it all the way but my only concern is that Brown might play like he did with the Steelers due to his time off. I think he'll adjust pretty quick considering he was one of the best in the game but you still never know.

[Hueristic]

Can't change the poll, we're already 5 votes in. The line is pretty tight, and Steelers need the game to get a wildcard spot. The 2 teams for the other exciting matchup are already shoe-ins for the playoffs.

Thats fine but anyone actually betting on this game is doing nothing but rolling the dice so gleaning information from this thread is meaningless in this context which is the point of the poll as far as i understand it.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28377014/antonio-brown-works-saints

Oh damn watch out folks.

Wonder what this does for the Superbowl win odds considering Brees has Michael Thomas AND Antonio Brown to throw to. I would put good money on the Saints to take it all the way but my only concern is that Brown might play like he did with the Steelers due to his time off. I think he'll adjust pretty quick considering he was one of the best in the game but you still never know.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28377014/antonio-brown-works-saints

The NFL has not concluded that investigation and it is uncertain when it will. Even after it wraps, Brown still could face additional league-imposed discipline.

On Sept. 20, the NFL released a statement that said Brown would not be placed on the commissioner's exempt list while he is a free agent, but it warned, "If he is signed by a club, such placement may become appropriate at any time depending on the status of the investigation. ... Upon the conclusion of the investigation, he may also be subject to discipline if the investigation finds that he has violated the law or league policies."

That could really mess with the odds especially if they get there with him and the league throws him on the list a week before the SB. wouldn't that be a real kick in the balls.

[morvillz7z]

I submitted my vote in favor of Baltimore. No way in hell id pick the Steelers here, i understand they need the W (just like last week) but looking at their offense and their two QBs, it's just that bad. Hodges needs 5 seconds to go through all of his progressions before he throws the ball (that's of course if he isn't sacked already) Rudolph ain't better...PICKS WAITIN' TO HAPPEN! Conner has been banged up all season long, like whos going to score points for them really?

I swear Ravens can pick dudes off the fanzone before the game and still win.

[bbc.reporter]

@morvillz7z. Agreed! Also, I am certain that Baltimore do not want to lose their final game of the regular season in front of their own fans hehehe.

[nutildah]

Steelers have made it to the post season in the last 4/5 years. I think even without Big Ben they'll manage to pull some tricks from out of their sleeves in order to secure the W. I upped my line on this one to -2.5 when placing my bet.

[Hueristic]

You guys do know that RGIII is horrible right? He will probably go out there and throw 3 interceptions and then get injured for the rest of the season trying to scramble when those days are far back in his rear view college days. He never could cut it no matter what the stats say about his rookie year, he was horrible and the skins still haven't recovered from the mess of a team he was drafted first round for.

[tyKiwanuka]

Thats fine but anyone actually betting on this game is doing nothing but rolling the dice so gleaning information from this thread is meaningless in this context which is the point of the poll as far as i understand it.

Tbh I would never base my picks on something like a poll, so I think this poll in here is just a bit for fun. You could actually use this poll (or any other public poll) as kind of contraindication I don't think there is something like swarm intelligence when it comes to sportsbetting. The overwhelming majority of betting people is losing longterm, so why would a poll give any +EV insight.

In general it's pretty hard (read: nearly impossible) nowadays to make any kind of money prematch in mainstream leagues. Markets have gotten so tight, every information is available with a few mouse clicks, news spread pretty fast, bookmakers have all statistics available, they have their own algorithms and AI. And the odds are centralized, with a few knowledgeable frontrunners and the rest just copying them.

The people I know, that are making a living out of sportsbetting are either covering non-mainstream leagues/sports (with low-ish limits) or are doing live betting/trading.


Regarding the Steelers@Ravens discussion, I don't think the Ravens are interested that much in the outcome. I can't imagine them or the fans caring too much about winning the last home game - they are in for something bigger this season. They would surely love the Steelers not getting into the PO's, but they don't even need to beat them for that to happen. If Titans win @Texans, the Steelers can do whatever they want and won't get in. And judging by the odds, it seems very likely for the Titans to get the W
Like in any sports, motivation plays a big role. Only point I could make for the Ravens in terms of motivation is their backups that will get a chance to show themselves. Some of these guys will want to prove themselves and maybe play for a new contract or get other teams interested in them. But 5-10 super motivated backups won't do anything, if the rest of the team just plays not to get injured. So these matchups - and we have a few of them today - are always tricky. The best advice is probably to just stay away from them or watch how things unfold live and place a bet accordingly.

Having said that, I still like the Jets ML today