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Author Topic: Bitcoin ‘Failed Safe Haven Test ' agreed on by a BTC Bear & BTC Bull  (Read 244 times)
Khaos77
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August 30, 2019, 04:57:46 AM
 #1

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-failed-safe-haven-test-after-7-drop-peter-schiff-gloats
Quote
“Bitcoin has again failed the safe haven test.
On Friday, as escalating trade tensions sent global stock markets plunging, investors sought refuge in monetary safe havens.
The Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and especially gold all moved higher.
Yet Bitcoin plunged by more than stocks!” he wrote.

Quote
Parabolic Trav rebutted Schiff on Bitcoin’s intrinsic value.

“Why on earth would Bitcoin be a safe haven?

Bonds are the safe haven in the current paradigm.

All of the mindless hodlers should pay attention,
both sides of the isle , pro & con bitcoin say bitcoin is not a safe haven.  Tongue

Kind of the exact opposite of the majority of the posts in these forums.

So as reality is smacking all bitcoin holders with a price drop,
be aware there is no real floor to it's price.

Good Luck in your Trading.


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August 30, 2019, 05:13:12 AM
 #2

Using bitcoin today as a safe haven being a good or bad idea is definitely debatable. Bitcoin still has very low liquidity(compared to other multi-decade to century year old assets and commodities) to be a very good safe haven. Personally, I'd say that bitcoin is not a good safe haven if you have easy access to other "stabler" assets like gold. But does it mean that bitcoin will be a not-so-good safe haven forever? I don't think so. Assuming bitcoin's liquidity increases as time goes, it will slowly get less volatile and more "stable" in terms of price.

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August 30, 2019, 05:52:36 AM
 #3


All of the mindless hodlers should pay attention,
both sides of the isle , pro & con bitcoin say bitcoin is not a safe haven.  Tongue

Kind of the exact opposite of the majority of the posts in these forums.

So as reality is smacking all bitcoin holders with a price drop,
be aware there is no real floor to it's price.

Good Luck in your Trading.

Mindless holders think Bitcoin is a safe haven? I don't think any sound investor believes anything is safe. Definitely not Bitcoin with all its young age and immature market. I'm a big fan of Bitcoin and I trust in it but I would never put everything into it. Or into anything. Diversify. Bonds are great now? I don't think so either. Gold? I'd never go all in.

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August 30, 2019, 06:12:09 AM
 #4

What do you think we don't already know about this?
We have seen the price plunge from the sky and again go up , we are not sitting here since years not knowing what might happen , everyone here is fully aware of the fact that Bitcoins might just die someday and still it's us who actually makes it stronger , the more you hold and trade the more it is going to be stable ..
And why should I even care about a test designed by Fiats and other traditional currency users ?
We know .
Thanks for telling us again .
And don't put on a label on people who actually believe in bitcoins , they are no different than people holding gold or land hoping for it to sky rocket.

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August 30, 2019, 06:26:34 AM
 #5

Bitcoin is an ermerging Safe Haven, the current fall is due to liquidation of positions on Bitmex, contracts were to expire on aug 30th.

Bitcoin is just like the internet which took quite some time to be in most people's daily life.
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August 30, 2019, 08:25:29 AM
 #6

All of the mindless hodlers should pay attention,
both sides of the isle , pro & con bitcoin say bitcoin is not a safe haven.  Tongue

dude it's 2019. why the hell would bitcoin be a safe haven? it was experimentally bootstrapped from nothing 10 years ago! is that the best trolling you've got? Roll Eyes

So as reality is smacking all bitcoin holders with a price drop,
be aware there is no real floor to it's price.

actually, there is. the floor is $0. but the upside is unlimited. Wink

i bought my first bitcoins in the double digits. wake me up when we break below $9000!

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August 30, 2019, 09:41:29 AM
 #7

What is happening now with btc does not speak about a safe haven, we can only guess whether the situation will change by the end of the year or the downward trend will continue
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August 30, 2019, 10:02:56 AM
 #8

All of the mindless hodlers should pay attention,
both sides of the isle , pro & con bitcoin say bitcoin is not a safe haven.  Tongue

dude it's 2019. why the hell would bitcoin be a safe haven? it was experimentally bootstrapped from nothing 10 years ago! is that the best trolling you've got? Roll Eyes

So as reality is smacking all bitcoin holders with a price drop,
be aware there is no real floor to it's price.

actually, there is. the floor is $0. but the upside is unlimited. Wink

i bought my first bitcoins in the double digits. wake me up when we break below $9000!

Well it IS safe if you are willing to wait... Those who cannot wait for the little fluctuations to pass should look elsewhere. Most metals like gold have existed before humans appeared.

Bought at 12k? Wait after it returns to that value. Simple isn't? Traders do that all the time (at least those that don't abuse margin trading).

Bitcoin is still "Over 9000!"™

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August 30, 2019, 06:26:22 PM
 #9

Let's start with the first sentence of the article:

Quote
Bitcoin (BTC) has shown it is not a safe haven asset, gold bug Peter Schiff has said after the largest cryptocurrency dropped 7% in daily trading.

Taking a deep breath, let's go to the second one:

Quote
In a tweet on Aug. 28, Schiff, who has become increasingly known as a Bitcoin naysayer, claimed BTC/USD dipping below $10,000 once again on Thursday put pay to theories it functioned as a hedge against fiat volatility.

So, listening to what this guy says about bitcoin is like giving a damn on a vegan's review about Pappy’s Smokehouse.


Well it IS safe if you are willing to wait... Those who cannot wait for the little fluctuations to pass should look elsewhere. Most metals like gold have existed before humans appeared.

Nope, that's not quite right either.
Keeping your savings in something safe means in case of an emergency you can easily withdraw the same amount and use this to cover your needs.
It's not safe heaven if you have to wait 5 years to (maybe) get your funds back while you can't pay up your mortgage.

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August 30, 2019, 08:42:45 PM
Merited by stompix (1)
 #10

...
So, listening to what this guy says about bitcoin is like giving a damn on a vegan's review about Pappy’s Smokehouse.
Grin Grin Grin Grin
...
Keeping your savings in something safe means in case of an emergency you can easily withdraw the same amount and use this to cover your needs.
It's not safe heaven if you have to wait 5 years to (maybe) get your funds back while you can't pay up your mortgage.
I have a book from the '80ies, it's about preparing for the situation when all hell breaks loose (like civil war, world war, local natural disaster, etc...)
In the 80ies, the book advised to buy some little thin gold rings at the jeweler regularly (when the situation is normal, not when the disaster happened already)  and you'll be able to trade them for food and water when you are in a need...
I'm afraid that despite of 40 years has passed, nothing has changed since...
In a case of an above mentioned situation, fiat will lose it's value in a really short time.
I don't really think that if someone will convert all of his/her fiat to bitcoin in the very last moment, then he/she will be safe and will be able to solve all the situation where it's about trading food for something valuable thing...
If you only expect just another credit crunch like in 2008, bitcoin could be a kind of safe heaven, but if something worse happens, bitcoin won't help at all.
If a new credit crunch happens, it will be bad for the banks (and for the people of course), but the infrastructure in the countries will remain untouched (mostly) and the internet connection will still work (which is essential for bitcoin trading/transferring). In this situation, bitcoin could be a safe heaven for those who are not fighting for living and have savings in the bank, they just need to move their savings to bitcoin and wait for a few years as above stompix has mentioned...
But if something worse happens, the infrastructure (first, the communication network) will suffer and bitcoin won't be available for the people... Of course, if you can wait for a few years, or you can get to another country where you can trade your bitcoins, you'll be fine in the end, but this presumes that you haven't starved to death because you haven't got any other valuables but bitcoin...
So bitcoin could be a kind of safe heaven but not for everyone/everywhere...
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August 30, 2019, 09:27:18 PM
 #11

This news just makes me laugh a lot.

the price was at $10,500 and dropped to $9320... if someone bought at $10500, that person must have bought knowing that he could make a profit in 1 year or more years, so falling to $ 9320 would not be a big problem. The point here is that this is a long term investment. Here's another example: Imagine the people who bought when the price was $3300, today those people make a big profit. and if you do research you'll find that when the price was $3300 they said the price would drop to $1000. But who was brave and bought with the price of $3300 and hold for more than 3 months, today has great profit. like i said this is a long term investment

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August 30, 2019, 09:34:03 PM
 #12

I disagree it failed safe haven test already.

In Brazil, our fiat devaluated about 10% since trump and China are doing their" commercial war". And our stock market lost another 10%, which would be like 20% down
Bitcoin didn't devaluate that much in the period.

Additionally, we didn't face a global crisis yet. If tensions escalate further,  Bitcoin price might react differently.

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August 30, 2019, 09:38:06 PM
 #13

It's important to see how much Bitcoin goes up before it corrects and what are the proportions of every correction.

A fall looks bad because most of us are looking at 1h or 2h charts when trying to see the big picture. On 1d chart it's much different. You can see that in last 2 years the median is somewhere near 6500 dollars and we rallied to 14 thousand before going down to 9. Even if we fall to 7 now it will be a nice small positive cycle for bitcoin.

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September 01, 2019, 04:07:31 PM
 #14

For now, no one does not know that bitcoin investment is not with risk and no one would fully say that it is completely safe haven; there are many people that make investment with their mind and not their emotion, so you still see them diversify into other investments like bonds also.

For now, the volatility of bitcoin is really yet to give him that full tittle of safe haven, and until the coin is fully recognized and legalized  before many of the investors you see in it can term it as safe haven, and I believe that in future, it would surely carry that tittle, but that still doesn’t mean that people will rely on it alone as source of investment, gold and other forms of investment will always make it in the investment plan of many investors same as bitcoin will also.

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September 04, 2019, 09:14:54 AM
 #15

I'm sure Bitcoin optimists worldwide would instantly react to this news since the argument came from a noted Bitcoin critic without any supporting

formal study or research but was made out on his pure opinion alone. Actually, I believe there is no "safe haven" paradigm in investment since they

are all subject to risks inherent to the financial world. I also find it quite ironic that even financial institutions are getting involved into the crypto

bandwagon regardless of what others pessimists suggests otherwise.

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September 04, 2019, 09:50:47 AM
 #16

This news just makes me laugh a lot.

the price was at $10,500 and dropped to $9320... if someone bought at $10500, that person must have bought knowing that he could make a profit in 1 year or more years, so falling to $ 9320 would not be a big problem. The point here is that this is a long term investment. Here's another example: Imagine the people who bought when the price was $3300, today those people make a big profit. and if you do research you'll find that when the price was $3300 they said the price would drop to $1000. But who was brave and bought with the price of $3300 and hold for more than 3 months, today has great profit. like i said this is a long term investment

It wasn't even a long term, like what , 3-5 months? No other asset has risen that big during this period of time. I'm sure those who bought at $19k and still holding will not lose their money in the long run, but you have to be brave, as you said, to hold during all those times. Either brave or smart enough to not invest in Bitcoin the money that you may need in the nearest 10 years. And that's it. If your case is the latter, you can just relax and wait for the times when your investment becomes profitable.

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September 08, 2019, 06:11:31 AM
 #17

Using bitcoin today as a safe haven being a good or bad idea is definitely debatable. Bitcoin still has very low liquidity(compared to other multi-decade to century year old assets and commodities) to be a very good safe haven. Personally, I'd say that bitcoin is not a good safe haven if you have easy access to other "stabler" assets like gold. But does it mean that bitcoin will be a not-so-good safe haven forever? I don't think so. Assuming bitcoin's liquidity increases as time goes, it will slowly get less volatile and more "stable" in terms of price.
I do not think that bitcoin will be less volatile in price over time. There are no real prerequisites for this. On the contrary, the higher the price of bitcoin is, the more bitcoin holders will worry about their money investments and this will contribute more to panic when negative information appears. Therefore, the higher its price, the more its high price volatility will manifest itself.
Therefore, bitcoin with high price volatility cannot be a reliable repository of value.
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September 08, 2019, 07:22:11 AM
 #18

Is Bitcoin a safe haven? It certainly has all the characteristics. What one needs to realise is that the harbour masters manipulate the news to ensure that their friends get the best berths. A safe haven is a place to lay up, and gain some protection from extremes of weather. This doesn't mean that you won't be subject to rain and high winds. Protection from political storms are no exception either. Only a fool leaves the protection of a safe haven during the storms, you just ride out the wind and rain, and wait for the sunshine.

Of course the really smart havener will be out searching the beaches, and collecting the bounty that washes up from the shipwrecks that result from rejecting the safe havens. For "havener" please read "HODLer". Smiley

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September 08, 2019, 07:56:31 AM
 #19

This news just makes me laugh a lot.

the price was at $10,500 and dropped to $9320... if someone bought at $10500, that person must have bought knowing that he could make a profit in 1 year or more years, so falling to $ 9320 would not be a big problem. The point here is that this is a long term investment. Here's another example: Imagine the people who bought when the price was $3300, today those people make a big profit. and if you do research you'll find that when the price was $3300 they said the price would drop to $1000. But who was brave and bought with the price of $3300 and hold for more than 3 months, today has great profit. like i said this is a long term investment
This reasoning is true only when you reckon that Bitcoin will constantly increase in value. I don’t have such confidence in me, because we live in this gross physical world, where most people make a living by hard work, heaven’s manna doesn’t fall from heaven, Therefore, by all the laws of our physical world, bitcoin will not be able to have a sky-high price that will not be comparable with our ideas about the basic laws of economics. Do not forget that free cheese is only in a mousetrap. We do not know how high Bitcoin can rise in price. However, the time will soon come for the relative stabilization of its price in terms of its ceiling. However, I do not think that then its price volatility will stabilize. With high price volatility, it cannot be a reliable repository of value.
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September 08, 2019, 08:30:24 AM
 #20

Then consider Gold as your safe haven i.e if you are not interested in making huge profit within the shortest possible time unlike what btc will give you, I won't consider btc as such because we can see from it's day to day market trend, year btc as your other financial support bearing in mind that anything can happen.
With Gold your initial investment is guaranteed plus a little profit, at least your are not about price fluctuations.

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