What year will Bitcoin reach $250,000?

[soxxx]

This post from 2013 inspired me to make this poll.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328685.0

[figmentofmyass]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

[bitbunnny]

It surprised me that you didn't put the question if but when. What makes you so sure that Bitcoin will reach 250000$?
Having in mind volatility and all factors that influence the price and market it's very hard to tell how the price will develope long term and to my opinion this is exaggerated value.

[gantez]

That year is very close for $250,000. We are just below the $10,000 and I'm wondering the kind of volatility that will lead to that. The volatility of 2017 if doubled is just going to give us close to $40,000 and the difference is still clear 

[Wilhelm]

Next bull period.
This period ath will be Aug 2020.
Add 4 years and a bit.
2025

[Duzter]

My guess is 2028 or above year, because by that time the bitcoin network would have undergone three halving as well there will be very big level of adoption. The proof for the same is the increase in userbase and adoption taking place between years. By that time, the demand will be compromised with the increase in value to the lowest denomination of bitcoin which could take the price reach $250000.

[rdluffy]

Even I, an optmistic person and passionate about cryptos, don't know IF, but it's good to see you asking "when" 

Serious, I don't know if BTC will reach 250k USD, even in an insane pump I think we have a lot of steps to do, and we barely touched 20k the last ATH, and this year we are in a solid 10k, so let's take easy and do a step by step

[exstasie]

This post from 2013 inspired me to make this poll.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328685.0

It's hard to know what shape Bitcoin's long term trajectory will take. A lot of people are assuming it's limited to the current logarithmic curve so they're conservatively thinking mid to late 2020s. That's possible. It's also possible the current log curve is just the beginning of a larger S-curve. So I give you 2 guesses:

If it's a logarithmic curve: 2025
If it's an S-curve: 2021

[gentlemand]

My willy wants me to write 2029, but in the cold light of day a just over 10x rise in 10 years seems silly.

It's either silly because expecting to get there at all is an outrageous presumption, or it's silly because if it is to happen it's hard to believe it'll take anywhere near that long.

An ever increasing amount of money and awareness meeting a supply that's fixed held by a large number of believers only has one likely trajectory.

[1Referee]

Realistically speaking, I would prefer a 'slower' road to that price in order for it to be more sustainable. The quicker we touch it, the weaker the support is and more likely that we'll be brutally rejected as usual. Bitcoin's issue hasn't ever been reaching certain high figures, maintaining them has always been its weakest point.

If I had to state a time frame, then >2030. That will allow me to accumulate as many satoshis as possible, then if we hit that price, diversification is what I will be focusing on.

[soxxx]

It surprised me that you didn't put the question if but when. What makes you so sure that Bitcoin will reach 250000$?
Having in mind volatility and all factors that influence the price and market it's very hard to tell how the price will develope long term and to my opinion this is exaggerated value.

I added the option of never.

[BitHodler]

What makes you so sure that Bitcoin will reach 250000$?
Having in mind volatility and all factors that influence the price and market it's very hard to tell how the price will develope long term and to my opinion this is exaggerated value.

I tend to agree. Too many people here are stuck in their moon boy bubble and ignore very realistic (but not so pretty) bearish scenarios long term speaking. Probably too much to ask for here.

I am very open to the idea of Bitcoin never reaching $250k, or at least, not without the more dominant fiat currencies around the world losing so much of their value that Bitcoin is being helped out in that way to increase.

I consider $100k a 50/50 shot. In order to speculate about anything above the $100k mark I want to see this price be hit first, otherwise what's the point of this speculation? If you can't hit $100k then you obviously won't hit $250k.

[hatshepsut93]

It's not likely to hit that mark during this bull market. So, my bet would be on the next bull market, but there's also an always-present possibility that the pattern will break, and we'll have longer cycles or the growth rate will slow down. So, if I wanted to be safe, I'd say 2032, but if I wanted to make a more yolo prediction, I would go for 2024. Think about it, Bitcoin demonstrated amazing growth in the bast that surpassed expectations of most people, but where's any guarantee that it will continue?

[rdluffy]

What makes you so sure that Bitcoin will reach 250000$?
Having in mind volatility and all factors that influence the price and market it's very hard to tell how the price will develope long term and to my opinion this is exaggerated value.

I tend to agree. Too many people here are stuck in their moon boy bubble and ignore very realistic (but not so pretty) bearish scenarios long term speaking. Probably too much to ask for here.

I am very open to the idea of Bitcoin never reaching $250k, or at least, not without the more dominant fiat currencies around the world losing so much of their value that Bitcoin is being helped out in that way to increase.

I consider $100k a 50/50 shot. In order to speculate about anything above the $100k mark I want to see this price be hit first, otherwise what's the point of this speculation? If you can't hit $100k then you obviously won't hit $250k.

Some time ago people was betting on 1 million, half million, 100k usd
Now they are more realistic and we all know it's not so easy, we are struggling to reach 20k usd again, it's a hige amount of money necessary to reach such levels, people need to realize this

[jaocoincrypto18]

I think it will never happen except if Bitcoin will be used globally and freely as a world currency. I don't believe it will reach that much because if Bitcoin will become more expensive to purchase then it will become more difficult to purchase too as investment. We all knows majority of the investors are small time in which they might shift to much affordable investment and lesser risk.

[DeathAngel]

Something like 2025 I think, the current phase will top in 2031 at about $100,000, I think. You then get the likely correction & a long wait until after the 2024 halving until significant upwards again so I think something like 2025.

[Lucius]

I think it will be at that moment when SEC approve first Bitcoin ETF, just because this is something that can pump price x25 from today value. If we take in consideration that SEC has been refusing such requests for years, it will probably be like that for several years.

For me personally, the year in which this could happen is 2022/23, for reason some smart people say that (Tim Draper), and this is not a man who speaks nonsense. But I would be very happy if 4-5 years from now price reach only half of that amount, $100k is something that is the ultimate goal for most.

Another possibility is that we will have to wait for such large numbers at least 10+ years, when almost 99% of all Bitcoins will be mined, and that demand then will be very high.

[exstasie]

My willy wants me to write 2029, but in the cold light of day a just over 10x rise in 10 years seems silly.

It's either silly because expecting to get there at all is an outrageous presumption, or it's silly because if it is to happen it's hard to believe it'll take anywhere near that long.

An ever increasing amount of money and awareness meeting a supply that's fixed held by a large number of believers only has one likely trajectory.

It's a very binary proposition indeed.

As the trajectory becomes more and more obvious (perhaps in the next bubble cycle), I think the market will start front-running the pattern, sending it vertical. Markets aren't generous; they don't give you a million chances to get in. That's why I don't think we'll be waiting anywhere near as long as a decade. I think Draper's "$250,000 by 2023" call will be proven right.

[Herbert2020]

it is really impossible to tell not just because of the usual thing people say about speculation but because $250k in my opinion is a bit higher than the price i think we will see in next bull run which means it may or may not happen during next bull run and if it didn't then it will happen in the bull run after it.

so my guess is that in 2020 and beginning of 2021 we will see a new ATH and it will be somewhere above $100k this time but like 2017 where we saw the rise from $900 to $20000 it is not possible to know how big the bubble is going to be. so it could even get to $250k. but if it doesn't then it would take the next bull run in probably 2023-24 to get there.

[gentlemand]

Markets aren't generous; they don't give you a million chances to get in.

I reckon that's a key point.

Most people are 100% locked into what they think should happen and what they think they deserve rather than what WILL happen.

No one and nothing else gives a shit what they think or feel. It'll run right over them without a flicker of regard.

[Dr.Osh]

for me, it is very difficult to predict this, especially now that recovery can be quite slow. if it is speculated based on available data, maybe bitcoin will reach that price by 2025, and however, I also doubt that. considering that the current price of bitcoin is $ 9k, so I still can't be optimistic at the price of hundreds of thousands of dollars.

[Reid]

Let us first wait before the prediction of the $50k'ers believer comes true.
Then we could to $100k and next might be your wish.
So what if does happen? Did you try to buy more bitcoin before it happens or will just be mere words and predictions without even having the faith with the technology?

Some do wait because of money and I am not a hypocrite because I want it too.
But let us face it, how could it go that far? That means a lot to hodlers.

[gentlemand]

So what if does happen? Did you try to buy more bitcoin before it happens or will just be mere words and predictions without even having the faith with the technology?

I certainly won't be buying any more. My hope is that it'll be directly spendable in more places as more people realise it has a lasting value and future. I'm uninterested in buying my toilet paper with it, but I am for other assets like property.

[YOSHIE]

Guess, prediction, it all makes me always confused sometimes right sometimes not right, but I keep investing outside the predicted price of Bitcoin as high as $ 250,000, let people think bitcoin prices as high as $ 250,000.

If the question is required to choose the price of bitcoin when $ 250,000, for me it will break in 2025.

[omonuyak]

This post from 2013 inspired me to make this poll.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328685.0

Bitcoin should be able to reach $250,000 and above after the next halving which will make bitcoin extremely expensive. The major players in financial world are speaking positively about bitcoin and that means now should be the right time we should put in what we have since we can still get Bitcoin below $10,000.

[btc_angela]

Probably we will get there after the next block halving next year, so around 2024 I guess. The next cycle will be around 6 figures perhaps but I don't see it getting into $250K. But just imagine if you are still accumulating at this time and seeing the price hit that in the future, going to the moon and lambo, lol.

[el kaka22]

I voted for 2030 but if there was option for anything even longer than I would have picked that as well. I am not saying "never" because I believe it will be 250k eventually but that may take decades before it happens, like maybe in 2050 we will have bitcoin at 250k.

However, right now inflation is not as bad as people think (not in big countries anyway) and that means price of bitcoin is not going to get that big. Don't get me wrong it can go up a bit without taking inflation into consideration, like just finding the right price of bitcoin but I believe that is between 50k and 100k, it could be anything between those numbers, but anything above 100k I feel like there needs to be something wrong going on with the economy globally and that will only happen with inflation over decades.

[buwaytress]

Let us first wait before the prediction of the $50k'ers believer comes true.
Then we could to $100k and next might be your wish.
So what if does happen? Did you try to buy more bitcoin before it happens or will just be mere words and predictions without even having the faith with the technology?

Some do wait because of money and I am not a hypocrite because I want it too.
But let us face it, how could it go that far? That means a lot to hodlers.

That's just it isn't it? And which is why I've never really seen myself, nor do I want to see myself, as a holder purist. I mean, let's most of us admit it, it is mainly about price for all of us and we want a good 6-digit maybe even 7-digit figure, and then we're all happy and lambo-ing off into the horizon.

But if we allow a bit of pragmatism, we know that we've got to balance that holding with a lot of actual use. Every spend we do, every case we use it for, contributes to that end game. Easy for me to say of course, I earn in bitcoin so I have no choice really to use it and sell it. Makes me feel good about myself but it's less a choice than it is circumstance.

And if we do allow for pragmatism, then we also allow ourselves to see that this big money price isn't just going to happen, and isn't likely to happen.

[McNab]

i can't vote but probably more than 2022, maybe NEVER!   

[Oceat]

I can't say what year it is and nobody can even tell what year it is too. A $250,000 is a bit huge price if you have to ask me and it might take for a while before we even witness that day. I can't imagine if someone who had a single Bitcoin on that day, he must be really really rich if he has to sell it.

Well, maybe we were too old during that day if we could ever witness that price because it's just too soon to tell it that $250,000 would just happen within 10 years. That doesn't really fix the chart if you look at it--i found it abnormal though. I know it's weird but there should be a pattern before a $250,000 hit.

[sana54210]

I can't say what year it is and nobody can even tell what year it is too. A $250,000 is a bit huge price if you have to ask me and it might take for a while before we even witness that day. I can't imagine if someone who had a single Bitcoin on that day, he must be really really rich if he has to sell it.

Well, maybe we were too old during that day if we could ever witness that price because it's just too soon to tell it that $250,000 would just happen within 10 years. That doesn't really fix the chart if you look at it--i found it abnormal though. I know it's weird but there should be a pattern before a $250,000 hit.

There are just some questions that are just silly to ask and I Didn’t know if it does not sound silly to the creator of the post. How can you ask about the year that bitcoin will reach such amount as if there is a formula that people can use to know. To even predict what the price of bitcoin would be tomorrow is very difficult because of its high concentration of volatility not to talk more of when the price will exactly hit the target.

We can only describe how the future will look like and what we think may facilitate the adoption of bitcoin that will make the price reach such amount in future. No one is doubting that the value will reach that but to specifically say when it would reach is impossible, not even satoshi who created the coin too, all he knows Is future.

[Faxmate]

i can't vote but probably more than 2022, maybe NEVER!   

Yeah same as you h think in 2022 price of bitcoin  will reach this high as time going on people are accepting the reality of crypto and they are investing high amount of their savings in it. Bitcoin has volatile nature so we only should buy at low and sell at high price but till then we will have to wait and hold almost till 2022.

[CoinEraser]

I'm also making a prediction, thinking it'll take till 2028. Surely it still needs one, two or even three block halving until such a price is possible, that's why my estimate is 2028.
It would be nice if this price is reached before, but whether it will really happen is hard to say. 

[Republikcoin.com]

I'm also making a prediction, thinking it'll take till 2028. Surely it still needs one, two or even three block halving until such a price is possible, that's why my estimate is 2028.
It would be nice if this price is reached before, but whether it will really happen is hard to say. 

it's probably about 9 years from now, and that's certainly possible. if the price of bitcoin can reach $ 250000 by 2028, I feel that the price of bitcoin should reach $ 100000 by 2023 or 2024. well, that's still a wild prediction that I made. however, I just feel that it takes quite a long time and also a positive trend to reach that price.

[pieppiep]

It is hard to say what year bitcoin can reach that price as we don't have any right information, we don't know if in the next 2 years bitcoin will hit that price or not. Everything we say will be a prediction, and we still don't know if that will happen or not because bitcoin can increase to that price any time. But maybe my wild imagination will predict that the price will reach $250,000 in the next 2 years or less than 2 years, but I don't have any direction why I say that. It's only my imagination, and I know that it is hard to believe that and I think it is better to wait and see because that is what we can do right now.

If the price can hit until that number in less than 2 years, then we will be the richest people from cryptocurrency, and I am sure that in time, the public will see and they will compete to join in the bitcoin and cryptocurrency. But I cannot think about what will happen if bitcoin is at that price.

[Slow death]

This post from 2013 inspired me to make this poll.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328685.0

if next year the price ends at $35000

2021 finish at $55000

2022 finish at $75000

2023 finish at $100,000

2024 finish at $120,000

2025 finish at $160,000

2026 finish at $190,000

has a chance that after 2030 the price will reach $250,000

[UnDerDoG81]

250k is enormous. But my gut says 2021.

I see in the linked vote about @10k I voted 2017 

[yesyes18]

I can't really say when it's really gonna happen but i believe it'll take some time for it to happen. now that Bitcoin is trying to gain its ground in the 10,000s I believe another run and correction will eventually kead to us going into the 100,000s  So let's wait a while and see what the future holds.

[Hamphser]

250k is enormous. But my gut says 2021.

I see in the linked vote about @10k I voted 2017 

Wait, what? Isn't it too early to say that? If you consider the price today there's no way that bitcoin could reach that amount in such a short span of time. Maybe another decade would be needed in order to see a price of $250,000 in the future.

[senin]

I do not think that bitcoin will ever be able to reach a price of $ 250,000. There are many economic factors that will always hinder this. First of all, this applies even to ordinary supply and demand. First of all, the holders of bitcoin themselves will prevent this. If it begins to grow rapidly in price, many will want to fix their profits and will sell them. Therefore, the price will fall.
It is also necessary to take into account the psychological factor. From time to time, negative news will necessarily occur, and if at this time Bitcoin has a high price, a certain degree of panic will also arise. As soon as doubt arises, according to the domino principle, it will grow rapidly, because no one will want to lose such a lot of money. In this regard, the price will inevitably fall again. We do not live in an ideal society and this must always be remembered.

[samcrypto]

In my opinion 2025 will be a great year for cryptocurrency but I'm not sure if the price of bitcoin will become as expensive as $250k. We grow a lot every year despite of the dump since many countries and many good project are already working to give good services for all crypto users. Many are still bullish about the price of bitcoin, I listen to those who made a good insight about bitcoin because I know its going to happen in the future.

i can't vote but probably more than 2022, maybe NEVER!   

Never say never, it can happen at no specific time hoping for that and of course stay on track to monitor bitcoin.

[xvids]

The price of Bitcoin right now is too far from it so I am guessing maybe about 2028+.
When the whole supply is already mined and circulating in the market the price could provably boost up,
Who knows how much it could go up at that time but I am hoping by 2024+ we could see it hit around $100K+.

[vintages]

I can't give any predication now but I am very positive that this price will surely come.
We may predict the year 2025 or above and it might come sooner or sudden.
The price of Bitcoin is the most unpredictable price and its gives back what the investors gives in which is either dump or pumps.

[STT]

Bitcoin reaching 250k involves far wider adoption and also the decline of the Dollar Index vs alternatives such as BTC but also likely other rival FIAT currency.      So Dollar Index long term and I would also argue the 10 Year Bond rate is probably relevant as that relates to the trade balance which is helped by the debt stored and the price of that debt which is into many trillions.
    To get 250k I think we are talking about those trillions altering their placement in where they are currently allocated, in theory we got to bring in alot of factors but the simple take is the price reversal on a few big assets has to occur for BTC to also be gaining in this way both value and nominally.

Or the opposite view, but at least it gives a time frame of about 4 years :

[Rustamm]

In order for the price of Bitcoin to rise to $250,000, it is necessary that 20 times more money is poured into Bitcoin than now. I think this is real, but only after a couple of years, when Bitcoin gets more widespread, ETF will be adopted and other positive factors will be present. I expect such a price around 2024, but I hope that this will happen sooner.

[Bisbee]

It’s great that the author of the topic does not even doubt that the price of BTC will rise to $250,000, he only inquired about the opinions of other people about when exactly this will happen. In fact, it’s nice that there are many people who are positive about the rise in the price of BTC. I hope that the price will reach this mark, but I see how much the governments of different countries are resisting strongly, so I think it is unlikely that the price will rise much in the next few years.

[exstasie]

   To get 250k I think we are talking about those trillions altering their placement in where they are currently allocated, in theory we got to bring in alot of factors but the simple take is the price reversal on a few big assets has to occur for BTC to also be gaining in this way both value and nominally.

That's an assumption that's floated all the time around here, but I doubt it's correct. It doesn't account for Bitcoin's low velocity of money and lack of ask side liquidity. The rules that apply to fiat money and gold don't apply to Bitcoin, where so much of the supply is hoarded and lost.

Applying market capitalization logic to BTC is one of the ways early adopters will fool themselves into selling too early.

[sana54210]

Knowing the specific year that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 to me is just like playing gambling which you are very much aware that you are going to lose. One can say that in this particular year Bitcoin will increase in its value as a result of this particular factors but not to be optimistic on the exact amount that Bitcoin value will reach in a particular year.

When we are not computers, I know that even that would be difficult for any bot to even do that and any bot that is created to do that would be quite terrible at it. The market volatility is too high to give chances to knowing the straight movement of bitcoin, all any analyst or cryptocurrency believer would ever say is that they believe bitcoin will reach one big value in future like it has done in the past, but would never tell exactly when the value will touch a particular time.

I have understood bitcoin and it is because of its level of understanding that is making me believe that bitcoin may not really grow more than $100k, those who are calling millions for it knows that it is impossible, they are just here to create hype because of their own present investment in it.

[STT]

Millions is not impossible, I'm always a skeptic on just about every move Bitcoin makes but that target is possible because we are in a unique point in history.   If every government had zero debt, ran a balanced or budget in surplus not massive deficits.   If we had trade balance occuring or on trend towards balance not deficit then I would not agree with such a silly sounding target but massive inaccuracies are in the prices of many things and Bitcoin can alter dramatically.
   I still think BTC has to develop far more and be a simple 1 click type product for the millions who dont know and dont care especially about technology, they just want it to work for them.

Bitcoin's low velocity of money and lack of ask side liquidity. The rules that apply to fiat money and gold don't apply to Bitcoin

i thought BTC had a high velocity and hence why its worth more then people imagine it could be.  Maybe I'm just thinking of the trades done on exchanges because I'd agree actual business and price agreed in open market matters more.  
   I think the rules for the market will eventually apply to all, we have a distortion presently that benefits Government treasury debt so that its nearly paying nothing towards those who support it.   At some point these dead weight assets will have to float in open markets and support themselves like every product eventually must with plain supply and demand, either they will sink or find a way to survive with alot more effort then present near 0% rate returns.    
 

[stfN2128]

my vote goes to 2024, on one hand i dont think that btc will reach this price ever, on the other hand i see a scenario where bitcoin reach 200k and even 500k $. It depends on the global economy, if we see some more countries with hyperinflation within the next years, i think it could be a catalyst for btc to reach 250k very fast.

[exstasie]

Bitcoin's low velocity of money and lack of ask side liquidity. The rules that apply to fiat money and gold don't apply to Bitcoin

i thought BTC had a high velocity and hence why its worth more then people imagine it could be.  Maybe I'm just thinking of the trades done on exchanges because I'd agree actual business and price agreed in open market matters more.

Compared to fiat money I would assume its velocity is extremely low, since fiat money is the medium for most of the world's transactions. We're talking about supply chains, payrolls, everyone's day-to-day expenses.

Bitcoin is at the other extreme, with the majority of the supply never moving and 20% of the supply believed to be lost. If half the supply doesn't move and only a small fraction of circulating BTC are available on spot/OTC markets, this means its market capitalization (compared to fiat) is effectively exaggerated by at least an order of magnitude. That is why I think comparing the shear "size" of these markets is a dangerous approach that drastically sells Bitcoin's prospects short.

Liquidity vacuums (like we saw in the 2017 bubble) are powerful too. No ask side liquidity means price can spike to $1 million a lot easier than it can sustain it.

[STT]

Its a big subject, I might be getting over my a head a little which is why I'm always open to discussion but my basic take is illiquid value is not included in valuation such as market cap.   Satoshi's BTC is of no relevance, it hasnt been traded and wont be ever so it seems.    Those coins lost are not included in BTC value and I believe stock indexes ignore company stock not traded though I didnt find a link to back that up.

Seems BTC velocity is not changing greatly over the years but with a varation between years far more then the convential money supply which is obviously giant.   If they can compare BTC small as it is to US dollars used all over the world directly not having to scale it, seems to suggest the turnover for BTC must be far greater per coin.

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-velocity/

[Dank14]

Bitcoin will reach that price when countries start swapping their USD reserve for BTC.
Right now a few have suggested it but nothing concrete yet, so I'd say 2030 or something like that.

[exstasie]

Its a big subject, I might be getting over my a head a little which is why I'm always open to discussion but my basic take is illiquid value is not included in valuation such as market cap.   Satoshi's BTC is of no relevance, it hasnt been traded and wont be ever so it seems.    Those coins lost are not included in BTC value and I believe stock indexes ignore company stock not traded though I didnt find a link to back that up.

In the stock market, market cap is calculated based on all outstanding shares, not just the float. And that's basically how everyone discusses the "size" of any market. People say the gold market is worth $7 Trillion because that's the spot price multiplied by the known supply. That's how everyone talks about Bitcoin too; nobody accounts for lost coins or static coins that are unlikely to be sold.

And maybe that's fine for visualizing the magnitude of value abstractly "held" in BTC. But it tells us very little about the real supply and demand that actually determines spot prices. Essentially, my theory is that Bitcoin is prone to dramatically less supply pressure than fiat money or gold, and this cannot be reflected by market cap.

If Bitcoin's market cap increases by $1 trillion, that doesn't mean $1 trillion in actual capital needs to be re-allocated from other markets. Market cap is much easier to inflate than that based on supply being withheld from market. If there is only 1,000 BTC of ask side liquidity between $10K and $11K, it only takes $10 million to increase the market cap nearly $20 billion.

Seems BTC velocity is not changing greatly over the years but with a varation between years far more then the convential money supply which is obviously giant.   If they can compare BTC small as it is to US dollars used all over the world directly not having to scale it, seems to suggest the turnover for BTC must be far greater per coin.

https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-velocity/

The chart doesn't actually show USD velocity. I don't understand why he plots BTC velocity against USD supply. It looks like curve fitting to make a currency vs. investment claim about Bitcoin. I also don't think his definition of velocity fits the conventional one. He's looking at total transaction value rather than controlling for change addresses.

[STT]

I dont agree with the measure is what it comes down to I guess.  I think its inaccurate to consider value like this and I know personally from small trading a market is easily saturated by excess supply, the active turnover relates to market cap and I found a link to justify this some.

   I was remembering this from a long time ago but its very relevant and quoted every day in in the S&P 500 stock index.  It was changed as of 2004 to reflect the actively traded stock which is correct and I agree with and should be considered for many markets imo.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-move-to-float-adjusted-indexes-will-create-turnover
  
The only asset I can think of where I would say its justified is gold assets, some of this stock has not changed location since the 1930's and in some cases the ownership has been the same that whole time too.    It still represents value because the issued notes of each central bank are in some way backed by the asset value deposited and left seemingly liquid.
    We are obviously very far into a FIAT money setup now but its still arguable this gold is due payable in exchange for the debt and notes of a country and could be placed in demand for exchange of goods traded.   Libya, Venezuela and I think Iran are the most recent examples of large transfers of gold for use in trade even when that gold had not been used in decades.

that doesn't mean $1 trillion in actual capital needs to be re-allocated from other markets. Market cap is much easier to inflate than that based on supply being withheld from market. If there is only 1,000 BTC of ask side liquidity between $10K and $11K, it only takes $10 million to increase the market cap nearly $20 billion.

Basically I agree with you, considering every BTC coin mined previously is not right.  Thats deliberate inaccuracy and exaggerates BTC size and something crooked imo like XRP or many alt coins are very off their official figures I guess.
   However I think some of those trillions in dollars contained in treasury debt for various countries will never come near crypto; hence we will need to see a larger move elsewhere to make waves of some magnitude in BTC.   Someone said in another thread, when central banks start buying crypto; they never will.   ECB, BOJ, FED and China will buy SDR which is still Fiat with some gold, they will never be buying privately controlled (as they see it) money.
 
  I have to mention QE programs themselves promote this thinking, most of the new debt produced is held by government itself in public pension schemes.  In thirty years when that debt is payable to pensioners who earnt that value, we will find out whats it worth or what was lost.  
 I feel obliged to say I think everyone should own at least a tiny bit of gold (for decades or pension like holds of value) because of all this incorrect thinking in economies and all of us will lose money from the failures and fallacies in QE.  
 I need to find a source because I'm not qualified its just my opinion all dollar prices are incorrectly stated hence BTC 250k can occur etc.     Its a house of cards waiting to collapse because stating value not openly traded is false, QE is a bad system and counting Satoshi's wallet as BTC market cap is wrong.

If there is only 1,000 BTC of ask side liquidity between $10K and $11K, it only takes $10 million to increase the market cap nearly $20 billion.

This explains why the price declines as supply comes online at the higher prices.    Its not available there initially but people will bring it to exchange as they observe the higher price.   Thats why I always expect some digestion in the price as we pullback we observe where it might start the next leg higher or hopefully notice if its not holding its ground.

[peter0425]

I believe this will happen around 2025-2030 as we are not ready year for worldwide adaptation and also the advertising wasn’t enough for this to become reality

But of course we all believe the possibility of achieving this soon depend on how the volatility will brings us

[Wilhelm]

I’d laugh my ass of if we get there next year 

[soxxx]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

I believe 2021 as well.

[Wilhelm]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

I believe 2021 as well.

I just hope you guys are right. Waiting for the next bubble sucks

[Andrews193]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

I believe 2021 as well.

I just hope you guys are right. Waiting for the next bubble sucks

Sorry but I feel the hopes and speculations of many people are quite childish, agree that the value of bitcoin can pump quickly and surpass many calculated brains but somewhere, it always needs real limits and prices that bitcoin can reach. $20k or $25k is a number that  I and many people will have no objections, however, $250k is a huge number, it breaks all the rules and the limited calculations, the market and many big investors will not accept this price when it can create huge war on dumping.

[soxxx]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

I believe 2021 as well.

I just hope you guys are right. Waiting for the next bubble sucks

Sorry but I feel the hopes and speculations of many people are quite childish, agree that the value of bitcoin can pump quickly and surpass many calculated brains but somewhere, it always needs real limits and prices that bitcoin can reach. $20k or $25k is a number that  I and many people will have no objections, however, $250k is a huge number, it breaks all the rules and the limited calculations, the market and many big investors will not accept this price when it can create huge war on dumping.

It doesn't break any rule, $250,000 isn't an impossible number.

[RealMalatesta]

250k is waaaaaay too further away to happen in 2021. I mean its still at least 2 years away so maybe you can say that 250k is away but 2021 is away as well but honestly 2 years is not as further away as 250k. Right now we are on a marketcap that is 180 billion or so (changes a few Bil time to time) in order to get to 250k that would mean around 4.5 TRILLION marketcap.

Now that may happen eventually and I am not saying it is impossible but from 180 billion marketcap to 4.5 trillion market cap is certainly something very very difficult to achieve. Not to include that if bitcoin goes that high I am pretty sure that would mean other altcoins would increase a bit as well, not like there will be 4.5 trillion dollar bitcoin and the next biggest will be like 5 billion. So for now we gotta wait for at least a decade if you ask me.

[Wilhelm]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

I believe 2021 as well.

I just hope you guys are right. Waiting for the next bubble sucks

Sorry but I feel the hopes and speculations of many people are quite childish, agree that the value of bitcoin can pump quickly and surpass many calculated brains but somewhere, it always needs real limits and prices that bitcoin can reach. $20k or $25k is a number that  I and many people will have no objections, however, $250k is a huge number, it breaks all the rules and the limited calculations, the market and many big investors will not accept this price when it can create huge war on dumping.

Ok perspective (rough numbers)

2010 - $0.08
2011 - $1.00
2012 - $260
2013 - $1200
2014 - $700
2015 - $500
2016 - $750
2017 - $19000

If you look at the jumps Bitcoin makes percentage wise then 500%-2000% is realistic for the next jump.
So that's $80k to $360k.... If we have a bad jump we will have $80k...
Also the halving basically guaranteed $38k....

$25k is unrealistically low and is highly unlikely. To me your math don't add up.

[Naida_BR]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

I believe 2021 as well.

Really? you expect such a rise coming true in 2 years?
This increase is just crazy... I don't think it will ever happen apart from the fact, a war happens and people start buying bitcoin in order to store the value of their money.

[Wilhelm]

my wild guess in 2021.

in terms of fractals, the current chart looks like early 2016 to me. that suggests the next bubble top is 1.5-2 years away, and i think $250k is very possible in the next cycle.

I believe 2021 as well.

Really? you expect such a rise coming true in 2 years?
This increase is just crazy... I don't think it will ever happen apart from the fact, a war happens and people start buying bitcoin in order to store the value of their money.

Your account date tells me you have never seen bitcoin pump.
Once raw greed gets unleashed, bitcoin turns into a global black friday sale, and it explodes.
The last pumps were unreal, however due to the increase of bitcoin, those pumps are a blip on the current chart.

[exstasie]

If you look at the jumps Bitcoin makes percentage wise then 500%-2000% is realistic for the next jump.
So that's $80k to $360k.... If we have a bad jump we will have $80k...
Also the halving basically guaranteed $38k....
$25k is unrealistically low and is highly unlikely. To me your math don't add up.

That's my opinion as well, but it all depends what theory of markets you cater to. Not everyone expects past performance to guarantee future results. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 3 is usually the strongest, and Wave 5 tends towards certain fib extension levels. That's why xxxx123abcxxxx is only expecting $30K or so, or really anything beyond the 2017 high. He's been spot on with his last few calls, so maybe there's something to it.

[bkbirge]

2024 July 3rd 3:04pm central standard time when the first time traveler from the future comes back and tells everyone rocket ships run on bitcoin in the Age of Aquarius.

[The Cryptologist]

It will take a huge flippening on the government's part to make it happen. If they ever happen to give up on destroying bitcoin or to stop damaging its reputation early then then we can see $250k after a year it happens. But I don't think this war between the government and decentralization is going to end and will take more 4-5 years before so that is the only thing that stops us from seeing a 6-digit btc value.

[Wilhelm]

If you look at the jumps Bitcoin makes percentage wise then 500%-2000% is realistic for the next jump.
So that's $80k to $360k.... If we have a bad jump we will have $80k...
Also the halving basically guaranteed $38k....
$25k is unrealistically low and is highly unlikely. To me your math don't add up.

That's my opinion as well, but it all depends what theory of markets you cater to. Not everyone expects past performance to guarantee future results. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 3 is usually the strongest, and Wave 5 tends towards certain fib extension levels. That's why xxxx123abcxxxx is only expecting $30K or so, or really anything beyond the 2017 high. He's been spot on with his last few calls, so maybe there's something to it.

I can follow the reasoning in this too. But $20k is just too low...

[BUK2016]

Did we even need to know the particular year that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 if it will ever reach such an amount in time to come? If you want safe your till when its value will reach such an amount then just be saving it because one cannot tell when exactly it will reach such an amount.

[pishite]

This post from 2013 inspired me to make this poll.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328685.0

in 2030, unless banned.
Or another ideal currency will not come in its place.
Now it’s not clear what is happening with the course, as I understand it, many people still want to buy Bitcoin before raising the rate.

[SquallLeonhart]

Did we even need to know the particular year that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 if it will ever reach such an amount in time to come? If you want safe your till when its value will reach such an amount then just be saving it because one cannot tell when exactly it will reach such an amount.

The only time that many analyst has speculated that bitcoin will reach such amount is when the supply of bitcoin is at least 96 percent gone, by that time, bitcoin would have been getting so scarce and miners finding it too difficult to mine, while many people will be hoarding their coin, and by that time also, adoption rate would have been high and the usage of bitcoin would have been for utility purpose and not just the way we are holding it for investment alone.

We might be looking at the space of 10 years’ time before that can happen, and I hope that we will be patient to be able to see that happen, if many of us would not have even sold all our coin then by the time we see bitcoin reach $30000, because it would really take a strong believer of bitcoin to see that value.

[Wilhelm]

If you look at the jumps Bitcoin makes percentage wise then 500%-2000% is realistic for the next jump.
So that's $80k to $360k.... If we have a bad jump we will have $80k...
Also the halving basically guaranteed $38k....
$25k is unrealistically low and is highly unlikely. To me your math don't add up.

That's my opinion as well, but it all depends what theory of markets you cater to. Not everyone expects past performance to guarantee future results. In Elliott Wave theory, Wave 3 is usually the strongest, and Wave 5 tends towards certain fib extension levels. That's why xxxx123abcxxxx is only expecting $30K or so, or really anything beyond the 2017 high. He's been spot on with his last few calls, so maybe there's something to it.

I can follow the reasoning in this too. But $20k is just too low...

Without Altcoins, Bitcoin loses its liquidity. The Altcoin market separately must have a capitalization of at least 200 billion dollars. Then Bitcoin will be more than 20 000 dollars.

Without alt coins all money would flow into bitcoin IMHO. I do not see how alt coins affect bitcoin? Most altcoins follow bitcoin not the other way around.

[redsun114]

It is insane to think that the same jumps could happen when the price is this much, you guys have no idea how much is required to go from 100 dollars to 1000 dollars in price and 10000 dollars to 100000 dollars, there is a HUGE difference in money required to do that.

Yes, it has moved 200%+ before and it could definitely happen again but those 1000%+ increases are no longer feasible for us anymore, not because the price wouldn't want to go there but because buyers would have to spend tens of billions of dollars instead of just couple billion and sometimes not even that much.

For us to go from 10k to 20k there is 10+ billion dollars needed, now that is just x2 to 20k, considering you are saying 80k to 360k that is literally impossible to happen quickly, we need years for that to happen.

[andreibi]

I'm with Tim Draper on this one. He said $250,000 per BTC will happen in 2022. He was hedging his bets weeks ago by saying it could be around December 2022. And now just recently he said he believes $250,000 is actually a conservative estimate.

[soxxx]

I'm with Tim Draper on this one. He said $250,000 per BTC will happen in 2022. He was hedging his bets weeks ago by saying it could be around December 2022. And now just recently he said he believes $250,000 is actually a conservative estimate.

Tim draper also predicted in 2014, that Bitcoin would hit $10,000 in 2017, as we know now, he was correct.

Hopefully he is correct again.

[beerlover]

I'm with Tim Draper on this one. He said $250,000 per BTC will happen in 2022. He was hedging his bets weeks ago by saying it could be around December 2022. And now just recently he said he believes $250,000 is actually a conservative estimate.

Tim draper also predicted in 2014, that Bitcoin would hit $10,000 in 2017, as we know now, he was correct.

Hopefully he is correct again.

This time he may not be correct, just because he was right once doesn't mean he will be right at all his guess.

2022 is just too soon man, $250k is really high number and people are not realizing that a 10% increase in $10k to $11k is not same as $200k going to $220k, we are talking about billions of dollars of money going straight from someones bank account to some exchanges to purchase bitcoin, that is not gonna happen that easily, surely when we become more global and all rich all around the world start to buy bitcoin like crazy we may end up seeing something like that but do you really think that in 3 years there will be billionaires all around to world trying to get more bitcoins? Or MILLIONS of people putting up hundreds of dollars everyday?

I doubt that is gonna happen in 3 years, it will probably take longer.

[Wilhelm]

I'm with Tim Draper on this one. He said $250,000 per BTC will happen in 2022. He was hedging his bets weeks ago by saying it could be around December 2022. And now just recently he said he believes $250,000 is actually a conservative estimate.

Tim draper also predicted in 2014, that Bitcoin would hit $10,000 in 2017, as we know now, he was correct.

Hopefully he is correct again.

This time he may not be correct, just because he was right once doesn't mean he will be right at all his guess.

2022 is just too soon man, $250k is really high number and people are not realizing that a 10% increase in $10k to $11k is not same as $200k going to $220k, we are talking about billions of dollars of money going straight from someones bank account to some exchanges to purchase bitcoin, that is not gonna happen that easily, surely when we become more global and all rich all around the world start to buy bitcoin like crazy we may end up seeing something like that but do you really think that in 3 years there will be billionaires all around to world trying to get more bitcoins? Or MILLIONS of people putting up hundreds of dollars everyday?

I doubt that is gonna happen in 3 years, it will probably take longer.

Marketcap calculations again 

$250k is not big and the price can go up out of scarsity alone (which is built in to bitcoin). If everyone hodls you will need to pay high enough for someone to say "OK here you go". That could make bitcoin theoretically go up to $1M without any transactions or money put in.

Then you have the greed of the masses and they will put in shitloads of money (and get burnt).

[bkbirge]

If everyone hodls you will need to pay high enough for someone to say "OK here you go". That could make bitcoin theoretically go up to $1M without any transactions or money put in.

That would be so awesome, but I think we'll need to go through a LOT of churning before btc is held by enough strong hands of that caliber.

[Bitcoininvestment]

Maybe it will hit the price of $250,000 or more in next couple of years. And, I can't say any exact years cause it is so unpredictable and the value of bitcoin are still too far in the price of $250,000. But, for now keep on earning bitcoin and let see if bitcoin will truly hit that price.

[Wilhelm]

Maybe it will hit the price of $250,000 or more in next couple of years. And, I can't say any exact years cause it is so unpredictable and the value of bitcoin are still too far in the price of $250,000. But, for now keep on earning bitcoin and let see if bitcoin will truly hit that price.

That's the mindset however I do believe that bitcoin is kinda predictable due to the halvings.

[South Park]

It surprised me that you didn't put the question if but when. What makes you so sure that Bitcoin will reach 250000$?
Having in mind volatility and all factors that influence the price and market it's very hard to tell how the price will develope long term and to my opinion this is exaggerated value.

Because if you take the time to see the fundamentals of bitcoin it is not really difficult to understand that bitcoin is by far the best form of money currently in the world, so it is not really a matter of if it is a matter of when it will happen, and while I do not have the answer to that I do know one thing and that is that no matter what happens at that time I'm still going to be holding my bitcoin because it is likely that at that point fiat currencies will be facing a crisis and there will be no point in converting your bitcoin to fiat.

[Rune]

250k could be never it could bee in a year it could be in 5 years after the follow up halving all are pretty good guesses id go with the 2024 halving. if it is happening at all.

[Farma]

250k could be never it could bee in a year it could be in 5 years after the follow up halving all are pretty good guesses id go with the 2024 halving. if it is happening at all.

the price of $ 250k is still very difficult to imagine for now. I didn't know how rich bitcoin users would become at that time, because that was a really high price. so far, I think that the high price that bitcoin can achieve is $ 20,000, or thereabouts. As for the price of bitcoin can reach $ 250k, it will probably happen in the year 202x, or even longer than that. however, we can predict that when looking at the price of bitcoin that can be achieved in 2019-2020.Tthat is what I think.

[Arsenyo]

I would say never. We can hardly expect returning to previous peak when it was 20k. Now there are too many governmental restrictions, decreasing interest in ICO's, lack of investors. So, I wouldn't even dream about $250,000.

[CarnagexD]

250,000$ is not possible to reach especially if the cryptocurrency that we talking about was bitcoin. I just voted 2022 and I do know if that year we will see the price of bitcoin reach the 250,000$. But, for now we should push the price of bitcoin to 10000$ so when we enter the year 2020 we could have a good start in the price of bitcoin unlike in the year 2019 where we enter that year we can experience decreasing price of bitcoin. Even the price of bitcoin still too far on that price I still believing somewhere in the future it will hit that price.

[Pab]

Pure speculation but i think next halving time.I am not sure will be that high but i think price can be above 100K
I think US dollar will lose his dominance US economy will have very hard time because of that so that time both gold and bitcoin can have very strong bull run.Sell dollar buy bitcoin can be next hashtag of that time

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I chose 2030 because that was the last year available.  Having said that, I've been very, very wrong with price predictions before and I expect to be wrong again and again.  But think about how much bitcoin would have to grow in order to achieve a quarter of a million dollars in value.  If that happened at any point before 2030 I don't think it would be sustainable--unless we had some serious inflation going on. 

Right now I would be ecstatic if we got back to the previous ATH.  Bitcoin is having a hard time finding a direction to move in, though. 

I just voted 2022 and I do know if that year we will see the price of bitcoin reach the 250,000$.

Eh, I think that's way too soon.  That's a 300X gain in price if my math is right (lol), and that's only 3 years away.  Increasing 100X every year would mean bitcoin would be in a bubble IMO.  I don't want that, because it would probably crash hard.

[buwaytress]

I just voted 2022 and I do know if that year we will see the price of bitcoin reach the 250,000$.

Eh, I think that's way too soon.  That's a 300X gain in price if my math is right (lol), and that's only 3 years away.  Increasing 100X every year would mean bitcoin would be in a bubble IMO.  I don't want that, because it would probably crash hard.

Yeah, I really, really can't understand how people can get so unrealistic. Yes, Bitcoin went from 1k to 20k but that was one super bull year, and there was every reason to believe that the sheer velocity of that year would result in just as harsh a pullback. That pullback happened, but it was nowhere as harsh as it should have been for a return of the cycle in 2020 (the earliest I expected it).

Thanks to that, because we didn't suffer enough pain, and because we actually experienced a rally this year, the 20x of ATH is yet again delayed.

That's my... uneducated, only slightly nuanced take.

P.S. Dude your math is so not right =p. 8 to 250 is roughly 30 times =p