Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning?

[docthusinh]

About the pitfalls of Martingale money management strategy read here: http://sportstatist.com/the-pitfalls-of-martingale-money-management-strategy/

The book/article author himself being a loser when apply this strategy thus wrote the book base on his own experience, research and references. One thing we may never know which is a successfully guy know his way will never publish a book or article about it because it will not be welcome and expose the strategy to be defended.

[docthusinh]

For those who does not experience using this method, they might think that it will improve their chance of winning because they might think losing x10 in a row is impossible. But, for people like me, I would say it's not a working method, hence it will never increase the chance of winning in dice game, in fact, I would call this a recipe for disaster as it's like chasing your loses until you got rekt.

In as much as I don’t really get the calculation accurately right, I am still of the opinion that this martingale strategy   is not as bad as it is been portrayed because I have seen a lot of gamblers that have been successful using this same strategy although I really do not understand how they go about it.

There should be a definitive approach to every decision on how to use a strategy and it is not the strategy itself that does the magic, the chance of either winning or losing 10x in a row is dependent on the player, like I said earlier I have little knowledge about this strategy and I am definitely not in the position to talk about it, I don’t use strategies and I prefer to have my game played not minding if I make loses or win.

You are open minded and is a good thing.

The only strategy to win is martingale (with modification of course) in which earn back everything on a win after a long losing streak. The thing is how one can manage to use the same capital to stay the longest i.e: with 1BTC he stay alive after 10,000 bets on the first try, 1,000,000 bets on the second try, 100,000,000 bets on the third try, and so on....who know if he managed to find out some behaviours of the random system and managed to get along with it (regaining of previous tries and possibility of profit after that).

A good thing for us today is the computer, in which almost everything can be simulated fast enough in which events will occur in 100 years (total bets) can be simulated in few weeks instead thus open the opportunity to find out something on this system.

[hosseinimr93]

To a certain extent, Martingale works. But you need to have a really deep pocket. Without which, you better avoid using Martingale as it will only dry up your wallet pretty quick.

What do you mean by deep pocket? Do you mean 10 BTC, 1,000 BTC or 1,000,000 BTC?
Assume that some one have 1000 Bitcoin. How much do you consider the initial bet?
1 Satoshi? Do you know how long does it take to earn a certain percentage of profit? (Even if you consider the initial bet 1 Satoshi, according to calculation your balance will be finally zero.
1000 Satoshi? It id same as the example I made in thefirst post.

I am still of the opinion that this martingale strategy   is not as bad as it is been portrayed because I have seen a lot of gamblers that have been successful using this same strategy although I really do not understand how they go about it.

The strategy is worse than you think.
I guess you are referring to some videos on Youtube. Yes, the strategy works for several times and up to few hours. But you will finally lose.
Any one who is talking about advantages of this strategy is trying to promote its referral link or don't know the strategy.
 

[Vispilio]

As a strategy and money management system, horrible, you are guaranteed to lose or make very unimpressive percentage returns.

However, in short term scenarios when a revert to mean is highly expected, a grid system or a modified martingale can be applied with pleasant results; for example it's a popular approach in FX trading, when after massive moves a currency mean reversion becomes highly likely...

[nakamura12]

If the winning chance is smaller then using martingale strategy then it won't increase your chance winning but your chance of earning profit may increase. If you play on a gambling site and you can set the winning percentage then it's clear that the winning percentage will never be increase.

[Darker45]

To a certain extent, Martingale works. But you need to have a really deep pocket. Without which, you better avoid using Martingale as it will only dry up your wallet pretty quick.

What do you mean by deep pocket? Do you mean 10 BTC, 1,000 BTC or 1,000,000 BTC?
Assume that some one have 1000 Bitcoin. How much do you consider the initial bet?
1 Satoshi? Do you know how long does it take to earn a certain percentage of profit? (Even if you consider the initial bet 1 Satoshi, according to calculation your balance will be finally zero.
1000 Satoshi? It id same as the example I made in thefirst post.

I am fully aware that Martingale is mathematically impossible. That is a given. There no argument about it. If you interpret my saying "To a certain extent, Martingale works." as something that a gambler can do repeatedly until god knows when, then I have to say one has to have a bottomless pocket for it.

What I'm trying to say is that it has worked. I have used it, probably you have also used it, and a lot of people have also used it and I am quite certain that for a time it worked on our favor.

[jhonjhon]

About the pitfalls of Martingale money management strategy read here: http://sportstatist.com/the-pitfalls-of-martingale-money-management-strategy/

The book/article author himself being a loser when apply this strategy thus wrote the book base on his own experience, research and references. One thing we may never know which is a successfully guy know his way will never publish a book or article about it because it will not be welcome and expose the strategy to be defended.

Likewise, it is some sort of asking if this strategy may applied at all times. Mostly people share there way of losing cause they wanted to help us and a sort of awareness but not the way they become profitable. For a lot of gambling strategies, nobody could tell what is effective but instead, they keep blaming that it cause losses with them which is something clear that not about the strategies but its all about luck.

[LogitechMouse]

I have seen this kind of strategy that has been discussed here many times already and many have tried to use this strategy already.

I have also used this kind of strategy too and the result is the same with most gamblers who used this kind of strategy too. Losses everywhere .

[FlightyPouch]

If the winning chance is smaller then using martingale strategy then it won't increase your chance winning but your chance of earning profit may increase. If you play on a gambling site and you can set the winning percentage then it's clear that the winning percentage will never be increase.

Martingale strategy is not really aimed to give you winnings if you will be thinking about it. If you win, you will be getting back to the normal bets you had, which is smaller than the bet you are doing if you lose. This strategy is usually for those people who want to avoid losing in gambling that is the reason why if you want to win, don't use martingale since it will just eat your balance quickly than you expected.

[FIFA worldcup]

I have seen this kind of strategy that has been discussed here many times already and many have tried to use this strategy already.

I have also used this kind of strategy too and the result is the same with most gamblers who used this kind of strategy too. Losses everywhere .

I do wish one day anyone discover a gambling strategy which truly make us win and changes all the gamblers fortunes.
These Martingale and parlay strategies do not work anymore and are just waste of time and money.

[Darker45]

I have seen this kind of strategy that has been discussed here many times already and many have tried to use this strategy already.

I have also used this kind of strategy too and the result is the same with most gamblers who used this kind of strategy too. Losses everywhere .

I do wish one day anyone discover a gambling strategy which truly make us win and changes all the gamblers fortunes.

• It cannot be possible. In gambling, some wins, others lose. This is exactly what gambling means and it cannot be changed, or else you will have to call it something else. Nobody wins if nobody losses. There will be no prize to win if there are no losses.
• If everybody wins and makes a fortune, there will be no more gambling sites, clubs, houses, resorts, and so on. They will all declare bankruptcy. After all, they operate at the expense of the gamblers.
• Gamblers will have to admit at some point that they are gambling not for the sake of fortune but for the sake of fun. Otherwise, they will remain bitter because of that wrong mindset.

These Martingale and parlay strategies do not work anymore and are just waste of time and money.

They do not work absolutely. Nevertheless, I think most, if not all, gamblers have used and will still use martingale.

[hosseinimr93]

I do wish one day anyone discover a gambling strategy which truly make us win and changes all the gamblers fortunes.
These Martingale and parlay strategies do not work anymore and are just waste of time and money.

It's 100% impossible. I suggest you to search for "house edge" on Google. House edge guarantee that the gambling platform will be always profitable.
Mathematically, in every bet you made the chance of website is higher than you (It's normal). So, in long term, you cannot be a winner.
As I said, It's impossible to find a strategy which guarantees your win. But let's assume that this strategy has been found. What will happen? Every one will use it. Then all the gambling websites must stop or they must change their mathematical calculations which are done behind.
Search for "house edge". You will find out everything.

[RealMalatesta]

I do not know the calculations but I do know that it will not help you to win or get back what you had lost. It is to gamble for fun than to earn money because we all know that we will end up losing, at least if we are having fun, that don't really matter.

Since you do know have an understanding of how the strategy works, I suggest you keep mute. Why would you say you know it will not be effective in getting back what was lost, do you know anyone who has used it and it failed or must everyone gamble for fun like you do?

I suggest we all learn to respect other people’s opinion especially in gambling and the strategies they choose to use. A lot of gamblers are using this and personally I have used these strategies for so long, to be realistic, no strategy is completely safe but to a great extent martingale strategy remains the safest strategy in casino games. The only challenge is that it could backfire in the long run but this is still under probability.

[joshy23]

I do wish one day anyone discover a gambling strategy which truly make us win and changes all the gamblers fortunes.
These Martingale and parlay strategies do not work anymore and are just waste of time and money.

It's 100% impossible. I suggest you to search for "house edge" on Google. House edge guarantee that the gambling platform will be always profitable.
Mathematically, in every bet you made the chance of website is higher than you (It's normal). So, in long term, you cannot be a winner.
As I said, It's impossible to find a strategy which guarantees your win. But let's assume that this strategy has been found. What will happen? Every one will use it. Then all the gambling websites must stop or they must change their mathematical calculations which are done behind.
Search for "house edge". You will find out everything.

If winning strategy exists and most gamblers find it out the chances to see another casino house to open will be slim, for sure before the owner operates the site they've done doing their research and acknowledge the higher chances to succeed, the edges always favors the house without any luck you'll just be eaten alive inside the casino, statistically you'll find more and more business like this had open overtime.

[exbet.io]

A lot of gamblers are using this and personally I have used these strategies for so long, to be realistic, no strategy is completely safe but to a great extent martingale strategy remains the safest strategy in casino games.

You cannot be serious.

The only challenge is that it could backfire in the long run but this is still under probability.

Sorry, this just doesn't make sense.

We wish everyone using the Martingale "strategy" the best of luck. You will need it.  

[Avirunes]

Since you do know have an understanding of how the strategy works, I suggest you keep mute. Why would you say you know it will not be effective in getting back what was lost, do you know anyone who has used it and it failed or must everyone gamble for fun like you do?

I suggest we all learn to respect other people’s opinion especially in gambling and the strategies they choose to use. A lot of gamblers are using this and personally I have used these strategies for so long, to be realistic, no strategy is completely safe but to a great extent martingale strategy remains the safest strategy in casino games. The only challenge is that it could backfire in the long run but this is still under probability.

I would like to know that how you were able to come to conclusion that martingale is safe and better amongst all the strategies that exist in gambling. No strategy is a money making key. Martingale is a risky strategy and a streak of certain losses back to back can eat up your balance. It doesn't matters how big is your bankroll but it would certainly eat a significant portion of your money.

[Malsetid]

A lot of gamblers are using this and personally I have used these strategies for so long, to be realistic, no strategy is completely safe but to a great extent martingale strategy remains the safest strategy in casino games.

You cannot be serious.

The only challenge is that it could backfire in the long run but this is still under probability.

Sorry, this just doesn't make sense.

We wish everyone using the Martingale "strategy" the best of luck. You will need it.  

Lol. I chuckled a bit with the safest strategy. I lost a lot more using martingale than placing random bets in dice. Well perhaps i don't have enough capital to keep me betting until i win, but still. A couple of losing roll will easily throw away any winnings that you may won with this same strategy. The likelihood of you getting rekt is more probable than going home with gains.

[Natalim]

For those who does not experience using this method, they might think that it will improve their chance of winning because they might think losing x10 in a row is impossible. But, for people like me, I would say it's not a working method, hence it will never increase the chance of winning in dice game, in fact, I would call this a recipe for disaster as it's like chasing your loses until you got rekt.

In as much as I don’t really get the calculation accurately right, I am still of the opinion that this martingale strategy   is not as bad as it is been portrayed because I have seen a lot of gamblers that have been successful using this same strategy although I really do not understand how they go about it.

There should be a definitive approach to every decision on how to use a strategy and it is not the strategy itself that does the magic, the chance of either winning or losing 10x in a row is dependent on the player, like I said earlier I have little knowledge about this strategy and I am definitely not in the position to talk about it, I don’t use strategies and I prefer to have my game played not minding if I make loses or win.

I'd like to know if what type of gambling game they are successful and are they successful in long term or short term only?

Those are the things that are necessary for me to know, because I don't believe that one can be successful in games where there is a house edge using the martingale strategy, our only chance of winning here is when we are too lucky to hit a big multiplier, but other than that, all our effort will just end up a losing effort.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Majority of the tests out there do not take into account the earning rate (running current balance) but only calcualate base on original balance. They missed the "moving variable" which is the earning (or profit), as long as it go faster than what is required to win a rare streak, it's still success.

My simulation is very simple. It doesn't use any mathematics. It brute force output for 100 000 gamblers.

Bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet, bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet ... .... .... thousands/milions of bets .... portfolio doubled - output win

Bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet, bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet ... .... .... thousands/milions of bets .... portfolio zeroed - output Loss

Repeat 100 000 times.

End output - 30% win 70% loss - rubbish system.

So my simulation gives exactly what are you will get out of your strategy. With 100 000 tests you can be sure that output will be close to statistic distribution.

[docthusinh]

Majority of the tests out there do not take into account the earning rate (running current balance) but only calcualate base on original balance. They missed the "moving variable" which is the earning (or profit), as long as it go faster than what is required to win a rare streak, it's still success.

My simulation is very simple. It doesn't use any mathematics. It brute force output for 100 000 gamblers.

Bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet, bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet ... .... .... thousands/milions of bets .... portfolio doubled - output win

Bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet, bet, pick random number, win/loss, change balance, change bet ... .... .... thousands/milions of bets .... portfolio zeroed - output Loss

Repeat 100 000 times.

End output - 30% win 70% loss - rubbish system.

So my simulation gives exactly what are you will get out of your strategy. With 100 000 tests you can be sure that output will be close to statistic distribution.

The differrent is that how did you do it is different from me (adjustment of bet size, sides, odd, etc...) my output from 200,000,000 times per test and multiple sessions of them: 85% win 15% loss (on total sessions done) -- like i said it belong to martingale category, but it's not what people normally do which is multiple by x after lose, but adjusted to meet the needs. You can't apply your tests which is based on your understanding to my tests with my understanding. Simple.