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Author Topic: Does Martingale strategy increase your chance of winning?  (Read 766 times)
shield132
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September 03, 2019, 09:54:19 PM
 #21

At first can anyone tell me why do you have to use strategy against luck? Don't these people know meaning of luck? Luck is something that happens itself, independently, that's usually why beginners win firstly.
Also it's pretty clear that player's luck is renewed every time, you can't built strategy on continues luck because every bet is built on new luck, that's how it works. It's like imagine you are building house but it falls on first attempt, how can you continue building? You have to start again.
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September 04, 2019, 01:06:24 AM
 #22

I have tried martingale several times in the past and sometimes I'm still doing it, it's very tempting to do it, but in order to win in martingale, you should have a variation of it, not only to chase your losses, I will create a thread about this explaining the method I've used and see if other gamblers are also implementing this.

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September 04, 2019, 02:04:29 AM
 #23

A lot of thread here already discussed martingale strategy and most don't suggest it, unless you're good at handling that strategy. It's a risk and still no assurance of winning. It's just a strategy and you don't have to depend on it since I believe it's still based on your luck and intuition, depending on what you're going to bet.

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September 04, 2019, 02:15:40 AM
 #24

At first can anyone tell me why do you have to use strategy against luck? Don't these people know meaning of luck? Luck is something that happens itself, independently, that's usually why beginners win firstly.
Also it's pretty clear that player's luck is renewed every time, you can't built strategy on continues luck because every bet is built on new luck, that's how it works. It's like imagine you are building house but it falls on first attempt, how can you continue building? You have to start again.
We know it, but in every game in gambling there is a gap where you can use it, not to increase your chance to win, because it's the realm of luck, but strategy is needed so that you can get a bigger profit from that gap, not hope the possibility of profit becomes large, because it is impossible that can be done with strategy.
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September 04, 2019, 02:59:59 AM
 #25

Although in theory, you can win with the higher probability, in the end, the house will prevent you from winning all of the money, and I am sure that they will block your account. It's not because you cheat them, but you are trying to get all of that money from the game, and I guess they don't like it. The house will not allow gamblers to win the biggest money for a long time of playing gambling because they to get all the money from the gamblers. So no matter how good your method, strategy, or you named it, it will end by losing the money except for people who have luck in the gambling games.

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September 04, 2019, 03:00:47 AM
Merited by suchmoon (4)
 #26

I think the most common thing that people research for improving the chances of winning in gambling games are:

  • What kind of strategy would help me win?
  • Gambling Strategies

If you search for it in Google, Gambling Strategies, the first page [1] would pop up and the number two in the list is already the Martingale. That's just how popular it is making everyone believe that it could work (if they read everything about it, they would have a different opinion).

That's why I already cringed at the first part that you input. "Increases chances". That's just BS.



References

[1] - 10 Betting Strategies That Work (At Least Some of the Time) By Timothy Dawson

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September 04, 2019, 05:40:40 AM
 #27

Martingale strategy does not increase your chance of winning. In fact it is totaly seperate from your chances of winning or losing. The house edge of a game stays the same regardless of how much you bet. The only thing that can influence the chance of winning is if the game is part of a contest, that can change the house edge slightly but it will still be a negative expectation game. Martingale is just double or nothing each bet untill your in profit or your bankroll is done. As an example flip a coin and  try martindale, did you betting martindale change the chance of heads or tails?

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September 04, 2019, 11:06:22 AM
 #28

Although in theory, you can win with the higher probability, in the end, the house will prevent you from winning all of the money, and I am sure that they will block your account. It's not because you cheat them, but you are trying to get all of that money from the game, and I guess they don't like it. The house will not allow gamblers to win the biggest money for a long time of playing gambling because they to get all the money from the gamblers. So no matter how good your method, strategy, or you named it, it will end by losing the money except for people who have luck in the gambling games.
Martingale strategy does not increase your chance even in theory. I made in a simple calculation about probability of winning on the first post. It proves that martingale strategy not only doesn't increase  your chance of luck, but also it decrease your chance. I made calculations theoretically. So, even if the house edge is not considered, using martingale strategy the chance of winning decreases. 

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September 04, 2019, 11:20:29 AM
 #29

I used to believe that until I lose everything and I need to fund my account again and again, I am always one roll away to gain from all my losses, you can win sometimes but never implemented it on all your games, you need to be a high roller to do this, if you cannot keep up don't use this strategy.
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September 04, 2019, 11:47:53 AM
 #30

I used to believe that until I lose everything and I need to fund my account again and again, I am always one roll away to gain from all my losses, you can win sometimes but never implemented it on all your games, you need to be a high roller to do this, if you cannot keep up don't use this strategy.
^ Definitely right, you need to have a huge of capital on this strategy and to bet the house edge is that just easy. I dunno why people used this Martingale strategy, they probably think that it will increase their chances of winning but the fact is you need to be a high roller and that is very risky. Nevertheless, I still believed in good luck in gambling and also strategy doesn't work but if you applied techniques probably there is a high chance of winning.

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September 04, 2019, 12:04:43 PM
 #31

Everyone deserves to try to the Martingale system out at least one time.  People always think they found some magical strategy that will work until they find out differently from testing it.  Eventually they will reach a long losing streak and won't have the funds to keep doubling their bets.
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September 04, 2019, 12:17:38 PM
 #32

thanks for taking the time to explain martingale strategy  . ive seen different threads simillar to martingale but most of them are only asking if its working or not but you , you make an example that shows how martingale is considered to be one of those risky strategy   .  i didnt know this fact before and im blinded by the truth , i thought i can won at all times when i use martingale but eventually i still got a lot of red streaks in which i cannot recover what i loose anymore .

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September 04, 2019, 12:38:39 PM
 #33

It only deceives you to think that this strategy can make you win.It is discussed many times in many threads here but the overall conclusion is always the same and is that you cannot win and martingale does not increase your chance to win either.

This strategy was applied in roulette tables when it first came out until betting limits were in place to make this strategy irrelevant.

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September 04, 2019, 02:48:58 PM
 #34

it has been proven so many times and with so many posts, that it's not going to work, but people still believe that it does, and there were some gamblers proving it otherwise, they may have a success in one day but it doesn't guaranty that it will go on and you will be lucky to implement it daily and win.



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September 04, 2019, 04:51:00 PM
Last edit: September 04, 2019, 05:03:22 PM by docthusinh
 #35

It depend on how do you perform multiply after each lose, I myself did it differently which is not "multiply the stake by x % after each lose" but:
- Given B as current running balance (capital & profit).
- Given D as the biggest drawdown (total cummulative loss of the losing streak before a win).
- With above values, maintain bets with appropriate stake sizes so that the expression B > D * 2 remain true all the time.

The tricky part is to find out best multiply value, it is not too common of "multiply by x2 after each loss on 50% win chance" but, basically after a rare losing streak occured, let call it LS your profit after winning that streak your balance basically can sustain LS + 1 and also maintaining above expression B > D * 2. It's a kind of "curve fitting" in Excel which more than one of you may hear of in which there is always a gap between your running balance and the cost/drawdown of the losing streak. Another variable to look for which is total earned/profit versus total wagered, from which I've done in simulation & real playing on dice game it is maintained at 7.8% to 8.0% of wagered amount. The more the wager amount increased the more profit made (to maintain that 7.8% - 8.0% ratio) and it always be B > D * 2. A requirement is the casino chosen for your play must have house edge less than this earned rate.

Recall rare losing streak, split it further into common rare losing streaks and extremely rare losing streaks where your running balance should be able to sustain the common ones (B > D * 2), and the extremely rare one is base on luck, but delay it as long as possible (basically 1 in 1 billion bets). To have this kind of bet count, utilize simulation mode of those bots available today or write yourself a provably fair number generator and test against it.

In summary, it's not "martingale increase your chance of winning" but "delay the losing chance of all captital & profit to the minimum or delay it as long as you can". Since above 1 billion bets in real life, with asumption of a casino that support 4 bets per second (250ms per request), you can sustain 1000000000/4/3600/24 = 2893 days. Almost 8 years and who know you might quit in between in the green (given a scenario that you did not get bursted too early, well it's extremely unlucky), test out first, utilize multiple instances with the simulation mode of bots to reduce testing time.
 
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September 05, 2019, 08:00:41 AM
 #36

Regardless on how you analyze, that strategy would never work long term, it will only work if you are betting on games that has no house edge, but in dice particularly there's no chance to will win consistently.

I have avoided this kind of strategy, because personally I experience that my bankroll got busted in an instant, so I don't recommend this one, it will only make you greedy and will loss the fun in gambling.




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September 05, 2019, 08:35:30 AM
 #37

By experience, it doesn't really help one to win more. It only gives you the wrong notion of chasing after your losses which often results into bad breaks. It may work on the first few tries but over time, you would incur more losses rather than earning some profit, so I suggest anyone playing dice games to stop doing the said method no matter how 'tweaked' it gets.

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September 05, 2019, 08:43:43 AM
 #38

Ain't know much this strategy the "Martingale strategy", this is such quite tempted to gamblers and interesting concept! Especially in gambling, it's easy to apply and everyone can benefit out of it. But the fact that we should know there's no strategy in gambling, martingale strategies are in such a fantasy state that it is can't even be called a realistic strategy. It is risky and may cause massive losses.

Personally and to be honest, I won't use this strategy rather than a basic strategy will be fine, and apply some techniques is much better.

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September 05, 2019, 09:29:55 AM
 #39

Martingale is an aggressive strategy where you double every next bet. It works sometimes, but not forever, sooner or later you stumble upon some losing streak and you lost everything you have.
If you wish to win in gambling you need to play aggressive and you need to bet higher after you lose. Talking about this in few lines is impossible, cause everything depends from the game you play, your bankroll and of course what kind of odds you prefer to bet on. I tried many strategies and non of them works entire night, that`s why I advise to mix your strategies, to change them often, to change games you play as much as possible, same like you need to change odds you bet on, as much often as you are capable. Try playing with bigger amounts and lower odds, then try to hit some big odd with small bet, you need to have some feeling about what will happen next and try to predict the outcome.

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September 05, 2019, 11:02:05 AM
Last edit: September 05, 2019, 11:12:37 AM by docthusinh
 #40

Martingale is an aggressive strategy where you double every next bet. It works sometimes, but not forever, sooner or later you stumble upon some losing streak and you lost everything you have.
If you wish to win in gambling you need to play aggressive and you need to bet higher after you lose. Talking about this in few lines is impossible, cause everything depends from the game you play, your bankroll and of course what kind of odds you prefer to bet on. I tried many strategies and non of them works entire night, that`s why I advise to mix your strategies, to change them often, to change games you play as much as possible, same like you need to change odds you bet on, as much often as you are capable. Try playing with bigger amounts and lower odds, then try to hit some big odd with small bet, you need to have some feeling about what will happen next and try to predict the outcome.

That's the main reason for every one to lose, it does not need to do so, there is odd to be used as martingale base rather than bet stake. And "double every next bet" is a for sure lose, with combination of odd, and increase enough bet size it may be as less as 0.01% is enough to recover loss and earn some gains. Another case where majority of people don't realize that with the same capital betting on 50% chance will cause the whole balance to be lost easier than 10% chance.

Also, the statement "you will lose in long lerm" is correct but not 100%, the question here is how long it is, "standard long" may be a week 24/7, but it may be extended as long as 1 year or 10 years. If you managed to have a strategy that can stretch 10 years 24/7 straight.. that could be enough since you may have option to quit with profit during the time.
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