Antminer S9 profit after the halving?

[JaDaveIII]

So I'm new to this.

Using a projected difficulty level and after the having of BTC in the spring of next year, will an S9 be obsolete? Like so many other miners on eBay, not profitable to mine, can't even give away, considering electricity cost? Even at my $0.0395 / Kwh cost my calculations (with projected difficulty) after the halving indicate negative return.

Yes / No / What am I missing here? Enlighten me please.

[1713975783]

1713975783

[1713975783]

1713975783

[1713975783]

1713975783

[1713975783]

1713975783

[philipma1957]

Price of coin ratio to difficulty ratio

Coins are 10000 diff is 10.7

S9 makes profit at 8 or less cents.

Pretend blocks 1/2 in a day

If price goes up to  make up  for less coins  then the s9 turns profit.

So 6.25 coins at 20000 makes up for 12.5 coins at 10000

But if diff to coin ratio does not change the s9 becomes a loser.

[favebook]

Well, S17 and (soon to be) S17e are already turning S9 into unprofitable machines. But it mostly depends on models (price of electricity and of course price of BTC) as some are already highly unprofitable and some are close to zero profitability with average electricity cost of 0.1$ per kWh and price of BTC around 10,200$.

Also, no one can predict the future but it is very likely that the difficulty trend will continue to rise slowly. And when halving comes, it will make a lot of miners truly unprofitable(if price does not rise). So difficulty for short period might get lower as big farms may stop mining.

But for your electricity, it might be profitable for quite some time as your electricity truly is cheap.

Also, this is just my opinion and not in any way financial advice!

[philipma1957]

Well, S17 and (soon to be) S17e are already turning S9 into unprofitable machines. But it mostly depends on models (price of electricity and of course price of BTC) as some are already highly unprofitable and some are close to zero profitability with average electricity cost of 0.1$ per kWh and price of BTC around 10,200$.

Also, no one can predict the future but it is very likely that the difficulty trend will continue to rise slowly. And when halving comes, it will make a lot of miners truly unprofitable(if price does not rise). So difficulty for short period might get lower as big farms may stop mining.

But for your electricity, it might be profitable for quite some time as your electricity truly is cheap.

Also, this is just my opinion and not in any way financial advice!

Yeah coin price drives miners hard. Ie if coins move quick to 20000 they will outpace the diff.

This happened in the spring coins went from 4000 to as high as 13400.

A fast price rise to the 20000 level makes the s9 good for a long while.

A drop in price to 7000 knocks the s9:out.

[Epochjump]

Yes, you can expect the S9 to go by the way of the L3+.That is by design. I also hope the OP is aware that his KWH Rate is NOT the important part of his calculations. When i see him post that he pays ".039" I immediately wonder if he is looking at just his rate per kwh. There are a lot of other charges that come into play. ( Fuel, Delivery, taxes etc etc.) If he is not at least a decent sized commercial miner I highly doubt his "all in rate" is .039 per kwh.

[wndsnb]

Yes, you can expect the S9 to go by the way of the L3+.That is by design. I also hope the OP is aware that his KWH Rate is NOT the important part of his calculations. When i see him post that he pays ".039" I immediately wonder if he is looking at just his rate per kwh. There are a lot of other charges that come into play. ( Fuel, Delivery, taxes etc etc.) If he is not at least a decent sized commercial miner I highly doubt his "all in rate" is .039 per kwh.

That is a common mistake, but there are a lot of local areas where power is that cheap and doesn't require megawatt usage levels. If only I was lucky enough to have come from Platsburgh, NY where even the residential rate is 4.36¢ ...

https://www.electricitylocal.com/states/new-york/plattsburgh/

or Medina,OH where the industrial rate is 2.18¢!

https://www.electricitylocal.com/states/ohio/medina/

I haven't found a residential rate that low, but it is possible that the OP owns a manufacturing business that already has access to industrial level pricing.

As far as the S9 profitability, assuming that you actually do pay 3.95¢, I think there is a chance that it will still be profitable after the halving. As Phil has pointed out in other threads, there will likely be some downward pressure on the difficulty as S9s start to become unprofitable and get shut down (not that difficulty will go down, but will possible stall or increase slower). If BTC price increases, and ASIC manufactures don't flood the market with more efficient gear, and a lot of the S9s out there are burning power at >3.95¢, then maybe.... A lot of "ifs" in there though.. lol.