Is Buffet right or wrong?

[safeminer]

This guy is known for not investing in technology.
He doesnt do this because he probably knows he is not very good at it, so in fact Warren Buffet says: Bitcoin is golden go for it !!!

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[dom_reed]

Anonymint,

One small criticism, some of the armstrong blog links dont add much to your points. I will post again and add some more informative links fwiw.

DR

As promised and to provide some substance to your 4th branch of govt statements, heres some independent reseach detailing how companies (mainly banks) rule the world.....

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354.500-revealed--the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world.html#bx283545B1

It links to the research paper.

[pontiacg5]

I had seen that link before but I can't keep all the 100s (perhaps 1000s) of pertinent links in my head. That is an especially effective link.

Action will speak much louder than any words I can utter. And many disjointed comments spread out over a forum is I think much less effective than a well-organized whitepaper which shares all the technical knowledge I have. Which would also annoy the forum less.

Best regards.

I thought you were leaving?

 

[mecoin]

He is wrong. Just like he was wrong about Microsoft and Facebook.

hahahahha, nothing more to add 

[pontiacg5]

I had seen that link before but I can't keep all the 100s (perhaps 1000s) of pertinent links in my head. That is an especially effective link.

Action will speak much louder than any words I can utter. And many disjointed comments spread out over a forum is I think much less effective than a well-organized whitepaper which shares all the technical knowledge I have. Which would also annoy the forum less.

Best regards.

I thought you were leaving?

 

I see we have here a 24 year old little snot who built some GPU miners. Disrespecting a 48 year old man who has written several million users commercial programs.

This is what our western society has devolved to. Complete disrespect for accomplishments and elders.

Don't worry little boy, I am leaving your sandbox. No need to throw sand.

When the elders are complete and total jackasses, you bet. What our western society has developed into? I'm quite sure you old geniuses had a lot more to do with that than I. Maybe if you hadn't fucked shit up so bad, eh? Meanwhile, I managed to take that small little GPU miner investment, and turn it into over 30 grand in GPU hardware today. What did you do the last few years, bud? Bitch about bitcoin mining?

Please make this the last time you threaten to leave.

[pontiacg5]

Don't leave Kansas much do we.

Relevance?

I'm not getting into a pissing match with you, have a nice day!

[toknormal]

If the transactions will not be on the block chain, then you have unregulated fractional reserves

Did you say something about a "brain stem" ?

"Unregulated fractional reserves" will happen with any money system, any culture, any technology, any market.

There's nothing to stop me advertising my car and sending 5 people a "promise" to deliver it in exchange for something of value to me. Thats an "unregulated fractional reserve".

The criticisms you cite are straw men. They are not the real problems with the blockchain. In fact, blockchain transactions are about 300 times faster than present day bank transfers. 10 minutes vs 1-3 days. Furthermore, bank transfers are no more reversible than blockchain transfers and you DO NOT want reversibility in the blockchain.

The point of sale issues (speed, refunds, discounts, store cards, insurance, payment protection, monetary media) are not the domain of a money system. They are the domain of particular payment processors. (If they want to operate a fractional reserve system like MT Gox, so be it - that's one of the hazards of payment processors but again - it has nothing to do with Bitcoin the same way as Gox didn't have anything to do with Bitcoin).

Bitcoin is not a fractional reserve money system - it is a full reserve, unlevered form of base money. It's exactly the opposite of what all the anti-NWO'rs (of which I suppose I am one) are paranoid about when they talk about "electronic money". It's just that most of them are clueless about the mechanics of money anyway and so just stick with "anything electronic" as their definition.

[AnonyMint]

If the transactions will not be on the block chain, then you have unregulated fractional reserves

Did you say something about a "brain stem" ?

Yes I did.

"Unregulated fractional reserves" will happen with any money system, any culture, any technology, any market.

The distinction is that when I choose to only transact on the block chain, I am assured that I am not receiving someone's else liability.

If someone else wants to go trade counter-party risk funny money offchain, that is their prerogative but it has no relevance to my point upthread.

There's nothing to stop me advertising my car and sending 5 people a "promise" to deliver it in exchange for something of value to me. Thats an "unregulated fractional reserve".

Yep. And those offers or transactions aren't on the block chain. That is why I don't trust any "statement of value" that is not on the block chain. (don't conflate "statement" with real assets offchain, which are fine ... I will accept gold for example)

The criticisms you cite are straw men. They are not the real problems with the blockchain. In fact, blockchain transactions are about 300 times faster than present day bank transfers. 10 minutes vs 1-3 days. Furthermore, bank transfers are no more reversible than blockchain transfers and you DO NOT want reversibility in the blockchain.

The point of sale issues (speed, refunds, discounts, store cards, insurance, payment protection, monetary media) are not the domain of a money system. They are the domain of particular payment processors. (If they want to operate a fractional reserve system like MT Gox, so be it - that's one of the hazards of payment processors but again - it has nothing to do with Bitcoin the same way as Gox didn't have anything to do with Bitcoin).

Bitcoin is not a fractional reserve money system - it is a full reserve, unlevered form of base money. It's exactly the opposite of what all the anti-NWO'rs (of which I suppose I am one) are paranoid about when they talk about "electronic money". It's just that most of them are clueless about the mechanics of money anyway and so just stick with "anything electronic" as their definition.

You go with your fractional reserve money system.

We smart folks will go build a decentralized block chain money system without counter-party risk.

And let's compare who ends up where.  I already told you that yours will end up owned by the government, i.e. back to fiat. Because counter-party risk is failure (and especially for the next 10 - 20 years given the $223 trillion debt bomb)

If the users are not using the base money, then the base money system will be controlled by those using it (and their government regulators!) which will be all your printed-from-thin-air money institutions you want offchain.

You didn't learn from the horrific failure of our current fractional reserve system nor even Mt.Gox, so you want to go back for sloppy seconds, thirds, fourths.

You really can't see that for example New York is preparing to regulate these offchain institutions so they have to have certain capital ratios, etc.. The government will take over and your 21 million coins base money will become irrelevant, because everyone will need to use the offchain money to do anything.

We can indeed put all those functions on the block chain, decentralized, and no cheating.

Edit: cripes the entire point of Satoshi's invention to solve the Byzantine General's problem was to eliminate the requirement to trust anyone. The breakthrough was eliminating the need to trust what can't be proven to be trustable.

[DoomDumas]

In early 1990's, Buffet said "Internet have no future, it's only for porn and gambling".

IMO, Again, this old man don't see the potential of the new technology !

[bananas]

IMO, Again, this old man don't see the potential of the new technology !

He probably does see the potencial, in the TECHNOLOGY. But not in one particular brand using that technology.

[AnonyMint]

He is wrong. Just like he was wrong about Microsoft and Facebook.

Can you please explain why he is wrong

There is an owner of moneygram..  THIS is a massive difference.

You guys keep making this same mistaken analysis even I've already explained upthread why this is incorrect.

Bitcoin is already owned by the few pools, the few big exchanges, Bitpay, and other offchain businesses that will all be de facto "owned" by the government via regulation.

You either go 100% decentralized and do everything on the block chain, or you go back to ownership by the elite again.

There is no such thing as a little bit pregnant. Decide what you want.

Edit: I would relish the day that no one needed a bank, insurance company, or any other leeches who serve no necessary function.

[pontiacg5]

He is wrong. Just like he was wrong about Microsoft and Facebook.

Can you please explain why he is wrong

There is an owner of moneygram..  THIS is a massive difference.

You guys keep making this same mistaken analysis even I've already explained upthread why this is incorrect.

Bitcoin is already owned by the few pools, the few big exchanges, Bitpay, and other offchain businesses that will all be de facto "owned" by the government via regulation.

You either go 100% decentralized and do everything on the block chain, or you go back to ownership by the elite again.

There is no such thing as a little bit pregnant. Decide what you want.

Edit: I would relish the day that no one needed a bank, insurance company, or any other leeches who serve no necessary function.

What is it you are rattling on about, again?

Bitcoin isn't owned by any pools, if the shit were to hit the fan you can expect a mass exodus in no time at all, except for the dumbasses renting hardware for cex. Or do you think these miners are going to devalue their hardware and profits by continuing to stick with a fucked up pool? Did we forget the mass FUD last time CEX got so close to 50%? That sure was a big problem 

I have NEVER sold a single bitcoin on a exchange, nor have I bought one through them. Please, tell me more about how I am "owned" by the government. Or, tell the steady supply of people who I sell coins to on a regular basis how they are owned by regulation.

Everything is in the blockchain, unless you choose to trust your coins to a third party. Nobody is forcing you to do that. Are you really this fucking stupid? If its not on the chain, you haven't got anything. Ask the goxxed....

So, again, tell me more about how things are done, how fucked I am, and other amusing bullshit that won't be relevant in 6 months, let alone a few years, so I can laugh some more. In the meantime, I sure wish you'd hold up your promise to go away.

[protokol]

Anonymint, I get your points about anonymity (I've read a lot of your posts re: tainted coins/regulation/anonymity etc.)

Can you just explain one thing - the logistics of actually tracking down EVERY bitcoin owner/exchange customer IRL. I understand that with regulated exchanges there will be MORE chance of being tracked down, but I still think you're looking too much into the technicalities. For a start, there are anonymous exchanges like localbitcoins.

But even if peoples IP addresses/identities/RL addresses are logged, are LE going to go round everyone's house, arrest them and throw them in jail? It seems unlikely to me, I mean we're talking about millions of people, worldwide.

[AnonyMint]

Anonymint, I get your points about anonymity (I've read a lot of your posts re: tainted coins/regulation/anonymity etc.)

Can you just explain one thing - the logistics of actually tracking down EVERY bitcoin owner/exchange customer IRL. I understand that with regulated exchanges there will be MORE chance of being tracked down, but I still think you're looking too much into the technicalities. For a start, there are anonymous exchanges like localbitcoins.

localbitcoins is not decentralized. You can't do anything without passing through a central server. Everything is logged there. Additionally most users are trading via traceable bank accounts, paypal, western union (with id), etc..

But even if peoples IP addresses/identities/RL addresses are logged, are LE going to go round everyone's house, arrest them and throw them in jail? It seems unlikely to me, I mean we're talking about millions of people, worldwide.

IRS (or equivalent in your country) sends you a summons for an audit. If necessary it is elevated to court and even criminal charges.

Enough of these examples will scare everyone else into complying.

To comply you need to demand identification from everyone you transact with and e-file a 1099 (or what ever form the IRS decides is required).

End of story. The users will regulate it for the IRS.

[pontiacg5]

He is wrong. Just like he was wrong about Microsoft and Facebook.

Can you please explain why he is wrong

There is an owner of moneygram..  THIS is a massive difference.

You guys keep making this same mistaken analysis even I've already explained upthread why this is incorrect.

Bitcoin is already owned by the few pools, the few big exchanges, Bitpay, and other offchain businesses that will all be de facto "owned" by the government via regulation.

You either go 100% decentralized and do everything on the block chain, or you go back to ownership by the elite again.

There is no such thing as a little bit pregnant. Decide what you want.

Edit: I would relish the day that no one needed a bank, insurance company, or any other leeches who serve no necessary function.

What is it you are rattling on about, again?

Insert more rocks in your cranium so you won't have that disturbing sound.

Bitcoin isn't owned by any pools, if the shit were to hit the fan you can expect a mass exodus in no time at all, except for the dumbasses renting hardware for cex. Or do you think these miners are going to devalue their hardware and profits by continuing to stick with a fucked up pool? Did we forget the mass FUD last time CEX got so close to 50%? That sure was a big problem  

The distribution of ASICs is highly concentrated among a fewer number of owners. This trend will continue to get worse.

Really, where is your proof? I disagree, thinking that as/if things speed up cheaper hardware will become available to more users. It may not pan out that way, but there's no way to say it'll end up centralized either. If the mining market were to trend in that direction, it would be obvious and disastrous to bitcoin, as with the CEX 51% scare. Disastrous things bother the exchange rate and mining margins, so something WILL change. Not that there's plenty more already waiting and in dev, ready to sell at rock bottom. But asics wouldn't be worth anything in that scenario, which means instead of coins changing hands, hardware will. A hiccup, one long drawn out one I still think will never come.

Even if you little farts did have a uniform distribution of the ASICs, you would not risk leaving a regulated pool for an unregulated one once the shit hits the fan, else you devalue your hardware and profits to zero and jail time.

Regulated pool? What regulations? So the government is going to start scanning packets and come kick in my door if I'm found mining? Or regulated, as in insured for the idiots who do not understand auto-payouts? That sure has been a problem up to this point, rouge pools stealing enough profits to make "unregulated" mining so unprofitable. Or are you saying the gov is going to track all coins, making unregulated mining impossible? Really? Again, all I see is more "government is gonna get you" FUD.

I have NEVER sold a single bitcoin on a exchange, nor have I bought one through them.

It is unfortunate that your actions are not representative of the majority.

Yeah, you are right, probably the minority right now. But, I've put bitcoin into a lot of new hands, people too paranoid to go to an exchange. I'd say that what I'm doing is going to shift to the majority, if anything. Is that not the end goal? I don't give a damn about the exchanges, they are a necessary evil I feel most won't bother with in the future. You (or the majority) deal with a USD exchange on a regular basis, eh?

Please, tell me more about how I am "owned" by the government. Or, tell the steady supply of people who I sell coins to on a regular basis how they are owned by regulation.

Because there will come a day where you won't mine without providing identity because the mining system is not anonymous.

Right, the mighty USA is going to force all bitcoin miners in the world to register, and it will work because US government has such a tight hold on the internet, let alone anything peer to peer? Or we are back to "colored" coins, any involvement in that fashion would devastate bitcoin, so who cares anyway. It will not happen.

WTF you think I been writing about for the past months?  ANONYMITY stoopid. Got it? Or are those rocks upstairs interfering with your comprehension.

Anonymity? Yeah, it's cool and I use it as much as possible, but I don't think it's as big a deal as you do, obviously. I believe those of us who pay attention will be able to stay two steps ahead, as has been tradition on the net. But, I don't think there will be a need to. This thing is too big now, and I don't share the same "gov is gonna get you" mindset as you. They won't fuck with it, because they can't win.

Everything is in the blockchain, unless you choose to trust your coins to a third party. Nobody is forcing you to do that. Are you really this fucking stupid? If its not on the chain, you haven't got anything. Ask the goxxed....

Agreed. So I guess you are calling all those majority who use exchanges and other offchain services stupid. I agree.

But how can you blame them when no one ever made it a priority to build the decentralized protocols needed.

Total blame, I don't care for speculators and feel no sorrow they lost out. They had to have seen the risks coming from gox, but they want to speculate anyway. I obviously deal with exchanges, mining with GPUs and selling bitcoins, but I don't speculate so my risk of loss is near insignificant compared to those fools. I never have to trust them for more than a few hours, thanks to mining. Yeah, I may not understand markets perfectly, but I would rather people trade for liquidity than bots and unregulated "exchange" engines anyone with some capital can open.  

How are you going to decentralize a USD exchange, when the USGov owns everything to do with the dollar. It does not get any better than peer to peer, nor will it, which still works pretty well considering how old bitcoin is. Stuff like ATMs and pre-loaded cards are the future. In the meantime, if people still want to trust anyone with a pile of money, let em.

So, again, tell me more about how things are done, how fucked I am, and other amusing bullshit that won't be relevant in 6 months, let alone a few years, so I can laugh some more. In the meantime, I sure wish you'd hold up your promise to go away.

You have a big cocky mouth Kansas-boy but not much astute logic to back it up.

Whatever  

As for localbitcoins...

As a miner, I use localbitcoins to find new customers. I've found, though, that most don't want to use localbitcoins, and instead just use it for initial contact. Now that I have a few customers, I have people referred to me completely outside localbitcoins, as in they e-mail or text me having found my number from a previous customer. Most just bring a printed code and a smartphone, usually talk about cool stuff for a while, too 

And I'm in po-dunk KansAAAss, who would'a thought there'd be so many wanting bitcoins in the middle of nowhere 

[5thStreetResearch]

While Buffet is one of the greatest investors to have lived, he has gone out of his way to avoid anything and everything tech for a long time now.  He is right about many things but Bitcoin probably is not one of them.

[HappyFunnyFoo]

Bitcoin is flavor of the month.

It's possible to conceive of a better cryptographic store of value (imagine a more deflationary version of bitcoin with close to zero coins generated on the network that requires 2-step verification in order for transactions to occur).

Conversely, it's possible to conceive of a better medium by which value can be transferred (imagine bitcoin with blocks generated every few seconds - fast enough to generate confirms that compete with credit card authorizations).

Other cryptocurrencies will gain popularity that offer superior options to bitcoin eventually, although this might take a while.  Buffett's dead on about bitcoin, but I definitely see other cryptocurrencies existing in the future and being quite popular.  Bitcoin's inability to compete with the instantaneous confirmation speed of cash, or the 5 second confirmation speed of credit cards, will render it obsolete eventually, fiat or not, it's just a terrible general currency platform.

[pontiacg5]

Bitcoin is flavor of the month.

It's possible to conceive of a better cryptographic store of value (imagine a more deflationary version of bitcoin with close to zero coins generated on the network that requires 2-step verification in order for transactions to occur).

Conversely, it's possible to conceive of a better medium by which value can be transferred (imagine bitcoin with blocks generated every few seconds - fast enough to generate confirms that compete with credit card authorizations).

Other cryptocurrencies will gain popularity that offer superior options to bitcoin eventually, although this might take a while.  Buffett's dead on about bitcoin, but I definitely see other cryptocurrencies existing in the future and being quite popular.  Bitcoin's inability to compete with the instantaneous confirmation speed of cash, or the 5 second confirmation speed of credit cards, will render it obsolete eventually, fiat or not, it's just a terrible general currency platform.

More hogwash, CC transaction times are in the order of days, you just never see that. Online transactions, that don't much care about a ten minute delay, are still worth a decent chunk of change. They also benefit from other features of bitcoin.

A coin with no generation is worth nothing, surly you've heard of "pre-mine?" Quark tried quick generation, faster transactions (both pretty bad for a technical reason) and it sure seems to be floundering. Two step for transactions? Man, cmon...
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3718/what-are-multi-signature-transactions

All this time the other currencies are taking, you admit "quite a while" are loosing ground every day. If it takes too long, people are not going to want to change. To do so would undermine the entire trust in the whole thing, someone is holding the bag, either customers, merchants, or the most likely - everyone. Why would they want to do the whole shebang all over again?

Not to say they can't co-exist together, which just adds a whole 'nother layer of complexity to the "feds is gonna get you!" theory.

[Slingshot]

RE: Is Buffet right or wrong?


 Buffett is a joke.


Caveat emptor

[5thStreetResearch]

Far from a joke by most people's definition of the term