How Will The Upcoming Recession Affect Bitcoin?

[exstasie]

Bitcoin has never been through a recession

Eh...bitcoin was introduced to the world right at the beginning of a huge recession and existed and thrived all the way through it.  By the time the economy had recovered in 2013 or so, bitcoin was hitting a huge high.

Not so sure about that assessment. Satoshi was probably the only miner on the network when the 2008 recession officially ended. By the time Mt. Gox launched in mid-2010 and efficient price discovery began, the recession was way in the rear view mirror:

According to the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions), the recession in the U.S. began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, thus extending over 19 months.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recession

[1714256982]

1714256982

[1714256982]

1714256982

[1714256982]

1714256982

[1714256982]

1714256982

[Prettyme]

I think it's important to consider what impact the recession that's upcoming will have on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react.

If there is a major global recession then the entire market will bleed and nothing will escape that, people will panic when the entire market starts falling and you will see major sell off but i do not expect the BTCitcoin to have the same issue with the rest of the market but still if there is a major global issue no market is safe from it, there is economic slow down globally and i do not wish to go through another recession again.

That's the reason why investors are in a hurry to sell all their bitcoin and with that the market will bleed. I am not wishing that this will happened in the future because a lot of us have been affected so let us wish the recession will not happened. We need to work more to keep the our economy goes up.

[Brunus]

There are many predictions, some positive, others negative, and some concern a real recession, if not a global collapse of the economy.
But no one knows for sure what will happen, so - while it is important to use caution - it does not seem to me a good idea to be paralyzed and scared.

[plast555]

There are many predictions, some positive, others negative, and some concern a real recession, if not a global collapse of the economy.
But no one knows for sure what will happen, so - while it is important to use caution - it does not seem to me a good idea to be paralyzed and scared.

It is true that capitalist economies have entered a period of arrest every 10 years and have had a heart attack at regular intervals. One of the main reasons for this is injustice in income distribution. Therefore, the capitalist order is doomed to collapse in the long run.
If there is a major recession in the world, the blockchain and cryptocurrencies will prevail.

[NathanJB]

I think it's important to consider what impact the recession that's upcoming will have on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react.

If there is a major global recession then the entire market will bleed and nothing will escape that, people will panic when the entire market starts falling and you will see major sell off but i do not expect the BTCitcoin to have the same issue with the rest of the market but still if there is a major global issue no market is safe from it, there is economic slow down globally and i do not wish to go through another recession again.

That's the reason why investors are in a hurry to sell all their bitcoin and with that the market will bleed. I am not wishing that this will happened in the future because a lot of us have been affected so let us wish the recession will not happened. We need to work more to keep the our economy goes up.

Come on, guys. Let us be more consistent the next time around and not just post for the sake of posting.

eaLiTy is saying that if there is a major global recession then the entire market will bleed and nothing will escape that. And then he goes on saying that the entire market starts falling. But then he suddenly isolates Bitcoin by saying that Bitcoin is not going to have the same issues as the rest of the market. But then he wrapped it up by saying that there is no safe market when there is a major global issue. This man is joking.

And you are responding with another joke.

Recession is normal. It happens to the market. There is always a cycle in the market and recession is part of it. And even if you wish that it will not happen, it will still happen.

Recession will happen but there will always be recovery that comes afterward.

[Brunus]

Well, it could be positive, in the sense that bitcoin - with the impossibility of creating inflation - becomes the only safe haven, in addition to gold, or goes to zero because there will be nothing left to exchange it with. Certainly, something dramatic will happen.

[AniviaBtc]

When the time of recession comes, there will be a variety of change in terms of finance or stock. But it will not have a big impact on crypto currency.

Digital economy is by using crypto currency and not everyone understand that so we need to enlighten people the benefits and good effects of this platform. It takes time and effort but it'll be worth it when they are already knowledgeable about it.

For some people who experience regression, they said that it just a simple conflict but people should think wisely and smart to overcome this kind of hindrance or circumstances in BTC.

[Pab]

Bitcoin boomed in 2009 exactly same time when stocks begin his bull run after sell off
Reason of that rebound was massive printing. With tons of printed money emerging markets was going up very fast.But emerging markets and emerging asset were after huge sell off
If answer for recession will be yet another printing then part of that printed money will goes in to btc
But Bitcoin price will rise even without printing because of halving

[Hydrogen]

If a day comes when nations around the world are printing excess piles of fiat in an effort to tax, print and spend their way out of debt. Bitcoin will do a far better job of maintaining its value and stability in comparison to government issued cash, due to it being deflationary.

In past recessions, we've witnessed consumers purchasing big screen TV's, electronics and physical goods due to those things being expected to hold their value better than devaluing cash. Necessity being the mother of all invention, it is possible future recessions and currency devaluation could do more to foster crypto mass adoption than anything we've yet witnessed.

How well crypto performs during recession/depression depends upon policies and legislation adopted by governments.

If world leaders are sympathetic to 99%'ers and wish to protect their economies, they will make it easier for consumers to transfer wealth to crypto in order to preserve their savings. Devaluing fiat can eventually destroy all wealth denominated in it, which can wipe out decades of accumulated savings. If however world leaders want their people to suffer and for their economy to be destroyed, they will place heavy bans on crypto, gold and other assets which consumers utilize to protect their wealth against hyperinflation.

People often cite gold as a good investment during recession/depression. Watching current news, its very common to see banks and governments buying up stocks of gold at an alarming rate. It might be depressing to consider banks/states expecting a big crash in the near future which would explain them cornering the gold market before severe economic downturn sets in.

[timerland]

Well, a global recession basically means everything goes to shit, and I'd assume the crypto markets would be full of red as well - decentralisation and it being in a different sector won't really help, and the end of the day, it's still a finance sector and it will go downhill as well.

There is a world though, a very small world where a recession occurs and people look to dump all their money in crypto, which is seen as the safe investment option (sort of like what is happening with Venezuela and their economy).

[teosanru]

I think it's important to consider what impact the recession that's upcoming will have on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react.

My thinking is as follows:

1. Retail investors by and large, will need to sell/spend their Bitcoin to pay their expenses and suppor themselves through the recession. So this could cause a dip in the price and a lessening in demand throughout the period.
2. Institutional investors may well choose to sell Bitcoin during the recession, in order to move funds into less volatile assets such as Gold.
3. Wales will likely hold their Bitcoin, and even pick up additional Bitcoin during any dips in the price, believing that Bitcoin will outlast the recession and will be far more valuable within the next 5, 10, and 15 years.
4. There won't be any parabolic rises seen in Bitcoin as a result of FOMO after the halving. This requires retail investors who have excess cash, or access to cheap credit, both of which are lacking during recessions.

My assumptions are based on research I've carried out and summarised in the below video:

https://youtu.be/faAjgUZJu0k

How do you think the recession will affect Bitcoin?

Well you are correct that Institutional Investors may choose BTC during recession times as they have been using Gold in the past at such times. However retail investors I think too would try to invest some of their savings into BTC due to the sudden panic that markets would create. Because definitely in such times there would be a few major corporate giants who would flaunt their ways regarding how BTC is great, some people maybe like Mcafee or someone. This will bring some confidence among the retail investor. But unless there is a complete economic meltdown I don't think there is a concrete chance that this thing can help BTC towards greater adoption.

[Anegg]

The recession effects everybody and everything within the economy and therefore will have a major effect on cryptocurrencies. During this period, economic growth tanks, disposable incomes reduce drastically and many people lose their jobs. As a result of this, Bitcoin is negatively effected due to panic selling that will occur, driving the prices of bitcoin down further when accompanied by the lack of demand, caused by the loss of savings in the economy.

Ultimately, the recession will definitely have a negative impact on bitcoin, however, it may serve as an entrance into the cryptocurrency world for some due to the reduced value of most cryptos. Those who do invest in a recession would most likely see a large increase in their investment after economic growth stabilizes.

[Febo]

Ultimately, the recession will definitely have a negative impact on bitcoin, however, it may serve as an entrance into the cryptocurrency world for some due to the reduced value of most cryptos. Those who do invest in a recession would most likely see a large increase in their investment after economic growth stabilizes.

I believe ultimately recession will have positive impact on Bitcoin. Because people will see ti as an alternative money. So far most people see Bitcoin as a get rich fast scheme. Big part of those that own Bitcoin thinks that way. Also big part of people on this forum. Once you see how dangerous is to trust third party to be your bank, you will cherish opportunity way more. And people will do that. Specially those with wealth. The 1%.

[davinchi]

Bitcoin has been through a recession, that is the part people are mistaking. What you see as "recession" is probably just american recession, if USA has one then all world should have it and you have a point a bit, when back in 2008 USA had it, many countries almost collapsed in economical sense, when they had it in 1987 same happened.

So yeah you are right that USA recession means global recession, however this doesn't mean there hasn't been recession all around the world in the past 2-3 years, look at the world global economy in the past 2-3 years and tell me you are not seeing some bad things going on all around the world, not just known ones like Venezuela or Zimbabwe but a lot bigger G20 countries having economical problems. Bitcoin wasn't phased by it and it still continues to do whatever it always does, go up and down like crazy.

[alyssa85]

Bitcoin has been through a recession, that is the part people are mistaking. What you see as "recession" is probably just american recession, if USA has one then all world should have it and you have a point a bit, when back in 2008 USA had it, many countries almost collapsed in economical sense, when they had it in 1987 same happened.

So yeah you are right that USA recession means global recession, however this doesn't mean there hasn't been recession all around the world in the past 2-3 years, look at the world global economy in the past 2-3 years and tell me you are not seeing some bad things going on all around the world, not just known ones like Venezuela or Zimbabwe but a lot bigger G20 countries having economical problems. Bitcoin wasn't phased by it and it still continues to do whatever it always does, go up and down like crazy.

I'm not sure I agree with you. Bitcoin has been through several bear markets, but that is a separate thing from a recession (which means economic activity contracts).

The only recession the world has seen in the last 10 years has been the eurozone crisis of 2011-2013. Bitcoin did well during that period - it was reaction to the Cyprus crisis that helped bitcoin become mainstream.

[styca]

I think it's important to consider what impact the recession that's upcoming will have on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react.

[...]

How do you think the recession will affect Bitcoin?

I think there's a difference in how Bitcoin will be affected with a recession now, and how it would be affected in say ten years' time, when I assume Bitcoin would be a part of everyday life.
Currently Bitcoin is still a risky asset with high volatility. I don't think people would see it as a safe haven against the turblunence of fiat - with the exception of really dramatic scenarios such as hyperinflation and currency collapse.

The future however I think is different. If we assume Bitcoin continues to develop, become more stable in price - or at least more resistant to abrupt changes, then there is every reason to see people in the future flocking to BTC as a more convenient version of gold.

[yoseph]

I really don't see any signs thats actually pointing to any incoming recession, up until Trump started the trade war with China everything has been going on smoothly and the markets all climbing to unpreedented new heights because the economy has been good. But in the case of a recession, am sure gold is going to sky rocket as it usually does after every financial disaster am sure Bitcoin will end up going up as well.

[ivakar]

I think it's important to consider what impact the recession that's upcoming will have on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has never been through a recession, and so we don't know how owners of and investors in Bitcoin will react.

My thinking is as follows:

1. Retail investors by and large, will need to sell/spend their Bitcoin to pay their expenses and suppor themselves through the recession. So this could cause a dip in the price and a lessening in demand throughout the period.
2. Institutional investors may well choose to sell Bitcoin during the recession, in order to move funds into less volatile assets such as Gold.
3. Wales will likely hold their Bitcoin, and even pick up additional Bitcoin during any dips in the price, believing that Bitcoin will outlast the recession and will be far more valuable within the next 5, 10, and 15 years.
4. There won't be any parabolic rises seen in Bitcoin as a result of FOMO after the halving. This requires retail investors who have excess cash, or access to cheap credit, both of which are lacking during recessions.

How do you think the recession will affect Bitcoin?

Dude, I think you are at correct path. I think you draw those scenarios and they are really close to what might happen with bitcoin. What path would be chosen, depend on God only 
I think how strong recession would be, depends how investors and ordinary citizens would do with their investments in bitcoin.
The powerful recession would be, the smaller amount of bitcoins on hands remains.. and lower the price would be .. imo.

[jmigdlc99]

1. Retail investors by and large, will need to sell/spend their Bitcoin to pay their expenses and suppor themselves through the recession. So this could cause a dip in the price and a lessening in demand throughout the period.
2. Institutional investors may well choose to sell Bitcoin during the recession, in order to move funds into less volatile assets such as Gold.
3. Wales will likely hold their Bitcoin, and even pick up additional Bitcoin during any dips in the price, believing that Bitcoin will outlast the recession and will be far more valuable within the next 5, 10, and 15 years.
4. There won't be any parabolic rises seen in Bitcoin as a result of FOMO after the halving. This requires retail investors who have excess cash, or access to cheap credit, both of which are lacking during recessions.

How do you think the recession will affect Bitcoin?

While i agree on points #2 and #3, my thinking is actually quite the opposite on #1 and #4.

1. People will buy more bitcoin during recessions as a way to preserve value. Just look at what happened with Zimbabwe and how people started buying bitcoin as a way to preserve value amidst inflation.
4. FOMO is FOMO, retail investors will have cash even without relying on cheap credit. If there is a FOMO then surely people will find a way to buy more bitcoin.

[el kaka22]

Recessions usually end up with fiat losing value and when fiat loses value then bitcoin gains value. Now, there is a chance people sell bitcoin to cover for expenses somewhere else but that doesn't mean it will certainly happen, even if some people sell their coins when fiat loses its value and bitcoin gains value there will be buyers as well who would like to take advantage of the situation.

They will want to get out of the fiat world and get into crypto world to make a profit, we have seen that happen time and time again in many countries so even if it happens on a larger country same thing may happen. It is not a guarantee which direction it will go but there is a big chance investors may want to go to gold/silver route as well as crypto which would make their prices go up.