Over 70BTC bet that Bitcoin will be $10,000 by end of 2014

[piramida]

Wouldn't be better for the 10k believers just hodl then sell at 20X profit, instead of bet then win way less than 20x?

Aren't you silly now are you? Bet is paid out in bitcoins. So instead of 1 bitcoin you get 5, at 100x profit. See?

You bet a week after the bet went up so you would probably make a lot more than x5 since you would be making x4 betting now if no one else bet and the bet has been up for 4months

If you bet no and lose you lose 10,000$ if you bet no and win you win way less..

probably not, as when the price goes to four digits again, there will be alot more Yes bets, diluting previous bets. thats the way the system works, unfortunately, earlier bets have more weight however the ratio is not set in stone. the only way to get a good payout would be if the price would jump to 10k suddenly in the 5-day window after the betting closes, which is not going to happen:)

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[boumalo]

No pays: 1.152642 BTC
Well it is a 26.1% Yield if you can wait seven months right now in BTC so not a bad bet for no
 in 7 months 1 week

1.15 is not guaranteed, when we will get closer to the end of November, people will bet on NO if the price isn't close to 10,000$ so the payout will go down; it is a weighted bet so I would estimate you can make 1.08-1.11 if you bet now; I am considering doing it

I am on the yes side. Consider that the Second Market Bitcoin trust will be available to small investors before then and there is also there is a good chance the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF could get approved before then. In fact if the latter happens BTC/USD could go significantly higher than 10000.

10,000$ at the end of November is possible but very unlikely and I am bullish on Bitcoin, I could see 3000-5000$ if everything goes right but you may be a bit blinded by the fact you bet on the price to be at 10,000$ at the end of November 2014

[Swordsoffreedom]

No pays: 1.152642 BTC
Well it is a 26.1% Yield if you can wait seven months right now in BTC so not a bad bet for no
 in 7 months 1 week

1.15 is not guaranteed, when we will get closer to the end of November, people will bet on NO if the price isn't close to 10,000$ so the payout will go down; it is a weighted bet so I would estimate you can make 1.08-1.11 if you bet now; I am considering doing it

Well an 8 to 11% Year over Year return in any other asset would be considered Phenomenal (Actually a bit higher not a full year) so it may be a good hedge to keep your money sitting down when the price changes and what not, still not a bad tradeoff.

[chessnut]

Heck, thats a 'YES' bet I wanna win! if its over 10k by the end of this year, well then it's probably going to be $15k..... so at those odds, Id bet a little on yes, and It will be very rewarding to win.

[smoothie]

I don't personally think we will break $10,000 this year but I think we could get to $4000 to $9000 likely as a peak this year and stabilize around $2500 as a nice round number/average.

[Swordsoffreedom]

I don't personally think we will break $10,000 this year but I think we could get to $4000 to $9000 likely as a peak this year and stabilize around $2500 as a nice round number/average.

Think Smoothie has a better prediction sense than I would so will sell at 4000 to 9000 and prepare to buy at around 2500 next time we see a jump up XD

[wachtwoord]

B = value of Bitcoin

It's important to see that the bet is denoted in BTC so say you have 1 BTC:

1. In case B = $10,000 (or more)

If not bet ==> You have [$10,000, INF]
If bet YES ==> you have [$40,500- INF]  (GAIN == 3.05xB)
If bet NO ==> you have $0 (LOSS== B)

2. In case 1 BTC < $10,000

If not bet you have [$0-$10,000)
If bet YES you have $0    (LOSS == B)
If bet no you have [$0-$11,500) (GAIN = 0.15B)

So in the case you bet YES and the value of the BTC is <$10,000 you lose whatever BTC is worth at the time (but less than $10,000) and when you win you gain

EV(No Bet) = B
EV(YES) = P(>$10,000) 4.05B
EV(NO) = (1-P(>$10,000))  1.15B

So when solving this with my calculator:

P(X>10,000) is between 0 and 0.13 then betting NO is best EV = [1B-1.15B)
P(X>10,000) is between 0.13 and 0.25 NOT betting is best  EV = B
P(X>10,000) is between 0.25 and 1 betting YES is best EV = [1B-4.05B]

Given these odds betting YES is completely retarded and betting NO is likely best.

[Deviant1]

The payout on taking the no side of the Bitbet is pretty sad - bet 1BTC, get back 1.15 BTC and it still has 7 months to go!

Why on earth would anyone even bother with this?

[wachtwoord]

The payout on taking the no side of the Bitbet is pretty sad - bet 1BTC, get back 1.15 BTC and it still has 7 months to go!

Why on earth would anyone even bother with this?

I explain that in the post right before you. I think the payout is way too high.

[boumalo]

The payout on taking the no side of the Bitbet is pretty sad - bet 1BTC, get back 1.15 BTC and it still has 7 months to go!

Why on earth would anyone even bother with this?

15% is huge when the price is 500$ and there is ONLY 7months to go; I am very bullish on Bitcoin but I don't think there is 10% chance of the price to be 10,000$ by the end of November; 3-5000$ by November or 10,000$ in 2015 would be way more likely but probably still unlikely

[matt608]

I don't personally think we will break $10,000 this year but I think we could get to $4000 to $9000 likely as a peak this year and stabilize around $2500 as a nice round number/average.

My prediction also.

[digitizedcurrency2010]

It would be really helpful if bitcoin price can drop to under 100 $ . This will take care of the short term speculators who hopefully would cut their losses and will move on to better investment ideas.
All the miners who are producing coins at roughly 350$ today and are hoarding hopefully would be forced to sell their coin and help bring other people into space.

[STT]

Ive not seen this thread before but being able to place a bet on lower bitcoin would be useful to some making investments reliant on its worth.        This might have been an easier bet to make though - http://bitbet.us/bet/888/lewis-hamilton-to-win-2014-f1-world-champion/

An emotional move downwards would probably reset speculation for a while but it seems like we have already lost alot of passengers along the way already.  I think more ability to hedge would encourage investment and be helpful

[Tzupy]

It would be really helpful if bitcoin price can drop to under 100 $ . This will take care of the short term speculators who hopefully would cut their losses and will move on to better investment ideas.
All the miners who are producing coins at roughly 350$ today and are hoarding hopefully would be forced to sell their coin and help bring other people into space.

Such a drop would shake the suckers who bought high in 2013 / 2014 and concentrate the circulating bitcoins even more into the hands of speculator whales.
This would make this market even more cornered than now, so I hope it won't happen. Something like 150$ - 200$ for THE bottom would be healthy IMO.

[catena5260]

Poor guy

Lost 70 BTC + the humiliation of being so wrong

[sgbett]

...
Given these odds betting YES is completely retarded and betting NO is likely best.

...so guess which side of that bet i'm on

[sgbett]

and this one 

http://bitbet.us/bet/716/btc-worth-over-5000-before-2015/

[NotLambchop]

Poor guy

Lost 70 BTC + the humiliation of being so wrong

Still plenty of time left.  I'm cautiously optimistic

[dinofelis]

Poor guy

Lost 70 BTC + the humiliation of being so wrong

I don't know.  If he buys ONE coin at $10 500.- on an exchange, isn't the price at that moment going to spike to $10 500,- for an instant ?
He didn't say HOW LONG the price had to remain above $10 000.-, did he ?  Is 10 milliseconds enough ?

After all, he will have to spend $ 10 500.-, but he will win the bet with 70 coins, which is good for 26 000.- at the current price, isn't it ?

[sgbett]

Poor guy

Lost 70 BTC + the humiliation of being so wrong

I don't know.  If he buys ONE coin at $10 500.- on an exchange, isn't the price at that moment going to spike to $10 500,- for an instant ?
He didn't say HOW LONG the price had to remain above $10 000.-, did he ?  Is 10 milliseconds enough ?

After all, he will have to spend $ 10 500.-, but he will win the bet with 70 coins, which is good for 26 000.- at the current price, isn't it ?

yes. to do that though, he will have to first buy *all* the coins on that exchange that are less than that (BTC-e in this case as per bet conditions)