$175 billion just printed and the Bitcoin price goes down!

[fillippone]

Just a couple of updates:

Nothing to see here.

$180 billion added to the Fed's balance sheet in just one month since the repo liquidity crisis started.

Powell says, "In no sense is this QE!"

https://twitter.com/crescatkevin/status/1183868665789202432


And a post from your fellow Fillippone detailing how the various CB's are pumping money into the systems:

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[fillippone]

This repo Crisis is again on the news (as it had ever left the newswires btw):

Fed’s Repo Crisis Bullish for Bitcoin, Hints VanEck Executive

Exemplifying with a ZeroHedge report, Gurbacks noted how increased liquidity was already pushing the benchmark S&P 500 index higher. The US equities surged dramatically during the Wednesday session, shortly after the Fed – suddenly – announced that it would raise the lending amount to the market from $75nbn to “at least” $120bn daily. The announcement caught market participants off-guard, with a repo trader saying that he did not “see a reason to upsize the overnight operation so substantially.”

it all started with this Tweet:

> The #Fed to add *$120 billion* liquidity *per day* to repo markets.
> That is a massive 60% increase in the overnight repo liquidity availability (from $75 billion to $120 billion).
> #Bitcoin’s market cap is $135 billion. Think about it for a moment.

Twitter Link

again, I think it is littel bit unfair to sum all the O/N operations, but I also reckon this situation has already goone way longer and farther than I initially thought.
So yes, I am now worried, as revealed, imho, a worrisome lack of control and empirism on the short term markets from the FED.
Maybe o_e_l_e_o was right, after all.

[agentx44]

This is really amazing, the Federal Reserve just printed some more toilet paper money and injected it into the financial market and the Bitcoin price takes a 5% nose dive. 

How gullible are the investors that they would be willing to pull money out of their Bitcoin investments to fund investments in the over inflated stock markets. 

I think this is just another Bear trap in the making, because we all know what is going to happen on the 23rd of September, when Bakkt is going live!

Let's stay calm and ride this out, because I am definitely not going to sell my coins to greedy scumbags, who are just into Bitcoin for the quick profits. 

Do you think this is a Bear trap? Let's discuss...... 

We cannot be decieved by such things. We should take precautions whenevet this instances occurs so that we can protect our investment. It can actually be a bear trap so we should be always mindful with our decisions and always avoid selling your bitcoin just because its value went down. We just need to be patient, things will get better as time passes by, the price will recover soon so we should not be too excited about our profits.

[Sithara007]

Bitcoin prices went down this week as well, but it didn't had anything to do with the repo rates or the printing of the banknotes. The spike that we had a few months back (when the prices jumped from $3,000 to $12,000 per coin) was caused by the announcement of Libra. And the crash that happened this week (prices dropped by 10% in one day to $7,400), was also caused by rumors that Libra project would be placed on cold storage. Sadly, as of now Bitcoin is not a mature asset that will be more influenced by the news from central banks, rather than rumors from FaceBook and Visa.

[redsun114]

We cannot be decieved by such things. We should take precautions whenevet this instances occurs so that we can protect our investment. It can actually be a bear trap so we should be always mindful with our decisions and always avoid selling your bitcoin just because its value went down. We just need to be patient, things will get better as time passes by, the price will recover soon so we should not be too excited about our profits.

When I see bitcoin price dump, I usually don’t panic myself at all because I will check the market to see that there is no fud news that has made such dump to occur, and in a situation where you don’t see much fud news, we should have already known that this is a whale trap which the thing we should try to do more than is more of purchasing.

I see that people actually have known this, and they will not panic sell anymore and because they have caught the strategy of whales already, this is why they decided to hide under bakkt to crash the price, thinking that majority of us would feel the crash was as a result of bakkt release and start panic selling again rather than buying, but even with that, I still ended up buying more of bitcoin to the best of my financial status.

[kapalmabur]

We cannot be decieved by such things. We should take precautions whenevet this instances occurs so that we can protect our investment. It can actually be a bear trap so we should be always mindful with our decisions and always avoid selling your bitcoin just because its value went down. We just need to be patient, things will get better as time passes by, the price will recover soon so we should not be too excited about our profits.

When I see bitcoin price dump, I usually don’t panic myself at all because I will check the market to see that there is no fud news that has made such dump to occur, and in a situation where you don’t see much fud news, we should have already known that this is a whale trap which the thing we should try to do more than is more of purchasing.

I see that people actually have known this, and they will not panic sell anymore and because they have caught the strategy of whales already, this is why they decided to hide under bakkt to crash the price, thinking that majority of us would feel the crash was as a result of bakkt release and start panic selling again rather than buying, but even with that, I still ended up buying more of bitcoin to the best of my financial status.

right now BAAKT shows their volume is increasing, this is good for bitcoin, but not good for altcoin,
I only have a little bitcoin, and a lot of altcoin, if bitcoin still shows signs of bullish then altcoin will go down again and again

[o_e_l_e_o]

but I also reckon this situation has already goone way longer and farther than I initially thought.

Agreed. This is very concerning.

As you correctly pointed out back here, the initial excuse from the Fed was to cover quarterly tax payments:

because of a large fiscal payment date is approaching for many corporate in the US.

This date has long since come and gone. And yet, instead of seeing the repo liquidity decrease, it is now massively increasing instead. Why is the shortage getting worse? Has there been any statement from the Fed about why this "definitely-not-quantitative-easing" is necessary, since their original excuse is now invalid?

I stand by the point I made back here, which seems more accurate the longer this goes on. This is looking more and more like the banks are in serious trouble.

[toast]

when there is that much money I think the price of bitcoin will not be able to fall because with that money many will buy bitcoin and will make bitcoin prices go up, even though the price increase is not long at least the price of bitcoin can go up and can wipe out the sell orders and many can benefit.

maybe with the purchase of bitcoin will certainly make the crypto currency will increase it has become the rule but all the possibilities can happen because we know with bad news only the crypto currency can decrease drastically and positive news will also increase the development of crypto currencies in my opinion the development depending on the crypto currency investor

[Vishnu.Reang]

right now BAAKT shows their volume is increasing, this is good for bitcoin, but not good for altcoin,
I only have a little bitcoin, and a lot of altcoin, if bitcoin still shows signs of bullish then altcoin will go down again and again

I checked the Bakkt volumes and even now they are far lower than what was expected. There was a lot of hype surrounding Bakkt before its launch and the cold reception it got in the market definitely had a lot of impact on the Bitcoin prices. That said, I am not bothering much about it now. So far this week, we have seen the prices increasing from $7,400 to $9,600, which showed that there are plenty of other triggers which can have a positive impact on the exchange rates.

[Serco]

right now BAAKT shows their volume is increasing, this is good for bitcoin, but not good for altcoin,
I only have a little bitcoin, and a lot of altcoin, if bitcoin still shows signs of bullish then altcoin will go down again and again

I checked the Bakkt volumes and even now they are far lower than what was expected. There was a lot of hype surrounding Bakkt before its launch and the cold reception it got in the market definitely had a lot of impact on the Bitcoin prices. That said, I am not bothering much about it now. So far this week, we have seen the prices increasing from $7,400 to $9,600, which showed that there are plenty of other triggers which can have a positive impact on the exchange rates.

when BAKKT trade start its not suitable with hope many traders.before it launched , cryptocurrency community so optimism with bitcoin price in future.but unfortunately imagination and fact very different.trading volume growth slowly meanwhile they were institutional investor.maybe it need more time to attract more investors start their investment here.

[fillippone]

Just a little update.
Straight from ZH.


Fed Reveals When The Next Repo Crisis May Strike

In discussing the pace of Treasury bill purchases, many participants supported a relatively rapid pace to boost reserve levels quickly, while others supported a more moderate pace of purchases. Participants generally judged that Treasury bill purchases and the associated increase in reserves would, over time, result in a gradual reduction in the need for repo operations.

And here, a passage that could be exactely in o_e_l_e_o interptetation:

Most participants preferred not to wait until the October 29–30 FOMC meeting to issue a public statement regarding the planned Treasury bill purchases and repo operations. They noted that releasing a statement before the October 29–30 FOMC meeting would help reinforce the point that these actions were technical and not intended to affect the stance of policy. In addition, a few participants remarked that an earlier release would allow the Desk to begin boosting the level of reserves sooner.

A couple of participants, however, wanted to wait until the October 29–30 FOMC meeting to announce the plan so as not to surprise market participants or lead them to infer that the Committee regarded the situation as dire and thus requiring immediate action.

[barota]

at first I even thought prices would go up directly when usdt was printed at the past from bitfinex ; but now i am sure that effect appear after some weeks at latest or little of months ; if everyone dump his bitcoin the prices will have some obstacle . but i think prices can stable in the future and rise constanly

[huige007]

at first I even thought prices would go up directly when usdt was printed at the past from bitfinex ; but now i am sure that effect appear after some weeks at latest or little of months ; if everyone dump his bitcoin the prices will have some obstacle . but i think prices can stable in the future and rise constanly

It is normal of digital currencies to face fluctuations and this is what they are famous for. Bitcoin is the most volatile crypto coin that gets affected by every big movement but this does not imply that the coin is losing its value. The halving is not very far from us and we can expect more decrease in values before it. But thins will change drastically afterwards. Bitcoin is going to skyrocket in 2020.

[meliodas]

at first I even thought prices would go up directly when usdt was printed at the past from bitfinex ; but now i am sure that effect appear after some weeks at latest or little of months ; if everyone dump his bitcoin the prices will have some obstacle . but i think prices can stable in the future and rise constanly

It is normal of digital currencies to face fluctuations and this is what they are famous for. Bitcoin is the most volatile crypto coin that gets affected by every big movement but this does not imply that the coin is losing its value. The halving is not very far from us and we can expect more decrease in values before it. But thins will change drastically afterwards. Bitcoin is going to skyrocket in 2020.

That is what the most people believed in. They all believed that the price of bitcoin will be awesome in the next year because of halving but you should also remember that you should not risk it all just because of other people's prediction. You should have your own analysis and it should not be influenced by other people. Learn to analyze the market and set take profits and stop losses in order to secure profit and also avoid too much losses.

[o_e_l_e_o]

-snip-

These overnight repos can't really be called that anymore, since they seem to have turned in to week or even month long repos. As you show, the balance sheet is continuing to increase rapidly, shows no signs of stopping, and the suggestions coming from the Fed are that even more action may be required.

Banks are borrowing more and more money and aren't paying it back like they are supposed to. There's something going on that they aren't telling us, and it's not good.

[fillippone]

-snip-

These overnight repos can't really be called that anymore, since they seem to have turned in to week or even month long repos. As you show, the balance sheet is continuing to increase rapidly, shows no signs of stopping, and the suggestions coming from the Fed are that even more action may be required.

Banks are borrowing more and more money and aren't paying it back like they are supposed to. There's something going on that they aren't telling us, and it's not good.

Stock market need to go higher for a variety of reasons.
Draw the SPX vs the Fed Balance Sheet and you see a very suspicious correlation.
Yes, Correlation is not causation, but here there is a logical link between the thwos.
Hence, QE cannot be stopped.
This is why it is called QE4: 4 stands for "4ever"

[o_e_l_e_o]

This is whi it is called QE4:  4 stands for "4ever"

Lol. The Fed's balance sheet has never returned to pre-2008 levels, and we are now seeing the most rapid increases since 2008 as well. Are we sure QE ever stopped?

Still, S&P 500 company earnings and profits are down, and are projected to decrease further this quarter. Production is down, manufacturing is down, growth is down, and yet stocks prices are up, almost exactly matching this "not QE". At this point it doesn't really matter if we are calling it QE or not. It is pushing down bond yields, and so money is flowing elsewhere. One way or another this "not QE" will stop, and when it does, stocks will crash.

[Gyfts]

The U.S stock market is hitting record highs with the economy booming yet Bitcoin is still not rising. We recovered from the dip yesterday slightly but still down which is surprising given Bitcoin's current state. This uncovers an unfortunate reality that people still are turned off from the idea of investing in Bitcoin and are not using it as an alternative to precious metal investments or stock investments. There are indicators of a recession, albeit not a large one by any stretch of the imagination, yet the economy is still on pace producing record unemployment numbers and stock prices. Even with ALL of this considered, Bitcoin is still down.

I get most of us are playing the long waiting game here, but to the ordinary investor who is dabbling in Bitcoin for the first time, a healthy economy with stocks rising and Bitcoin not rising is a sign to jump ship. 

[dragon695]

175 billion dollars is peanuts.
Such small amount won't change anything in the US economy or in the global economy.
By the way,the bitcoin price recovered from the 5% nose dive,so I think it's wrong to search for a correlation between the bitcoin price and how many billions were printed by FED.
There's no bear trap and Bakkt won't change anything.

$ 175m is a large number but people often mistakenly think that it was printed to pump the price of bitcoin. This is one of the big mistakes of many people. they can use that USDT to trade with alts or buy or sell exchange rates for more profit. Generally we should not rely on such signals to predict the value of bitcoin, which is completely unreasonable.
3 hours ago, for example, more than 6000 bitcoins were transferred to Okex and Bitfinex but its price remained at a strong support level of $ 7k150 and remained unaffected.
so the conclusion is that the price of bitcoin will be influenced by world news or only influenced by the strong buying or selling force of the crowd.

[o_e_l_e_o]

There are indicators of a recession, albeit not a large one by any stretch of the imagination

Indications are the next recession will be much worse than 2008. Banks are currently in a much worse position than they were in 2008, there is barely any room to cut interest rates without going negative, and the national debt has skyrocketed meaning any QE package will be limited.

yet the economy is still on pace producing record unemployment numbers and stock prices.

This is a poor way to measure the economy. Sure, unemployment is down, but wages are stagnant and record numbers of people are working two jobs just to make ends meet. As discussed above, stock prices are up because they are being pumped up by the Fed.

healthy economy with stocks rising and Bitcoin not rising is a sign to jump ship. 

The economy is not healthy and bitcoin prices don't follow the economy anyway.