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Author Topic: How Much Lower are We Going? Already at $2.25 !!!  (Read 18339 times)
proudhon
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November 17, 2011, 03:18:11 PM
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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Oh, no, he's right, it's exactly the same.  Because it's just as likely that the dollars I have today will buy 25% less bread tomorrow at the grocery store.  Or that the dollars I have today will buy 50% less bread in a few weeks.  Or 93% less bread in a few months.  Is exactly the same, see.
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November 17, 2011, 03:18:23 PM
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Bitcoin, last 5 months, on log scale. Brown line is 30 day trailing moving average.

The long, slow slide is right on track. It's been all downhill for 5 months now, and the trend is consistent  Currently, the price is cut in half every 5-6 weeks.

Every once in a while, there's a big drop, and then the price recovers. But it never recovers all the way.

Heh. I use that graph, though with the 40-day moving average, to predict at what speed people would "undershoot" when hitting fundamentals by blindly following an exponential trend once again. 40-day was chosen since this line was never touched since the bust phase began in the beginning of August, marking a limit at which trend-followers might notice something is fishy about extrapolating exponentially. (Oh boy, isn't that 9th grade school knowledge?)

It seems I got one half of my prediction right, people do like this trend and try to make it continue. Now let's see if fundamentals hold, too. The moment market forces overpower a common opinion is always the most interesting one, and unless we get an exp drop to zero, this moment should be coming soon.
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November 17, 2011, 03:58:14 PM
 #43

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Oh, no, he's right, it's exactly the same.  Because it's just as likely that the dollars I have today will buy 25% less bread tomorrow at the grocery store.  Or that the dollars I have today will buy 50% less bread in a few weeks.  Or 93% less bread in a few months.  Is exactly the same, see.

So the reason we transact with fiat is because it doesn't lose its value? Uh huh... tell that to Mr. Bernanke and his printing presses.

The reason we transact with fiat and not bitcoin is because the bitcoin system does not have states, military, and legal systems supporting it. If the dollar had none of that, it would be just as insane as bitcoin. But when fiat currencies die their slow death, bitcoin will still be around.

Failing to understand my post and mocking me just makes you sound ignorant.

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proudhon
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November 17, 2011, 04:25:44 PM
 #44

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Oh, no, he's right, it's exactly the same.  Because it's just as likely that the dollars I have today will buy 25% less bread tomorrow at the grocery store.  Or that the dollars I have today will buy 50% less bread in a few weeks.  Or 93% less bread in a few months.  Is exactly the same, see.

So the reason we transact with fiat is because it doesn't lose its value? Uh huh... tell that to Mr. Bernanke and his printing presses.

The reason we transact with fiat and not bitcoin is because the bitcoin system does not have states, military, and legal systems supporting it. If the dollar had none of that, it would be just as insane as bitcoin. But when fiat currencies die their slow death, bitcoin will still be around.

Failing to understand my post and mocking me just make you sound ignorant.

Look, when I want and need to buy things (food, supplies, entertainment, etc) I don't care why the currency I have buys roughly the same tomorrow, next week, or next month.  I care that it does.
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November 17, 2011, 04:40:02 PM
 #45

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Oh, no, he's right, it's exactly the same.  Because it's just as likely that the dollars I have today will buy 25% less bread tomorrow at the grocery store.  Or that the dollars I have today will buy 50% less bread in a few weeks.  Or 93% less bread in a few months.  Is exactly the same, see.

So the reason we transact with fiat is because it doesn't lose its value? Uh huh... tell that to Mr. Bernanke and his printing presses.

The reason we transact with fiat and not bitcoin is because the bitcoin system does not have states, military, and legal systems supporting it. If the dollar had none of that, it would be just as insane as bitcoin. But when fiat currencies die their slow death, bitcoin will still be around.

Failing to understand my post and mocking me just make you sound ignorant.

Look, when I want and need to buy things (food, supplies, entertainment, etc) I don't care why the currency I have buys roughly the same tomorrow, next week, or next month.  I care that it does.

The problem, as I'm sure you are aware, is that it doesn't.

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DeathAndTaxes
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November 17, 2011, 04:57:10 PM
 #46

To answer the question in the thread title...we're going all the way down.  There simply is no reason for bitcoins to be worth more than a $1, no reason at all.  Nagle has been right.  When a bubble pops, it pops all the way, and in the case of bitcoin, there's no reason for a legitimate recovery on the horizon.

Why the "magical" $1.  It seems everyone who is convinced that Bitcoin is overvalued is absolutely positive it is worth $1.  Of course they have no data to support how much Bitcoin is overvalued nor how it is properly valued at $1.

I mean why $1?  Why not $0.10 or $0.01 or $0.001?
proudhon
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November 17, 2011, 05:01:41 PM
 #47

To answer the question in the thread title...we're going all the way down.  There simply is no reason for bitcoins to be worth more than a $1, no reason at all.  Nagle has been right.  When a bubble pops, it pops all the way, and in the case of bitcoin, there's no reason for a legitimate recovery on the horizon.

Why the "magical" $1.  It seems everyone who is convinced that Bitcoin is overvalued is absolutely positive it is worth $1.  Of course they have no data to support how much Bitcoin is overvalued nor how it is properly valued at $1.

I mean why $1?  Why not $0.10 or $0.01 or $0.001?

Notice I didn't say bitcoin is or should be worth $1.  I said there's no reason for it to be worth more than $1.  It's probably going to be worth less in the coming months.
proudhon
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November 17, 2011, 05:03:53 PM
 #48

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Oh, no, he's right, it's exactly the same.  Because it's just as likely that the dollars I have today will buy 25% less bread tomorrow at the grocery store.  Or that the dollars I have today will buy 50% less bread in a few weeks.  Or 93% less bread in a few months.  Is exactly the same, see.

So the reason we transact with fiat is because it doesn't lose its value? Uh huh... tell that to Mr. Bernanke and his printing presses.

The reason we transact with fiat and not bitcoin is because the bitcoin system does not have states, military, and legal systems supporting it. If the dollar had none of that, it would be just as insane as bitcoin. But when fiat currencies die their slow death, bitcoin will still be around.

Failing to understand my post and mocking me just make you sound ignorant.

Look, when I want and need to buy things (food, supplies, entertainment, etc) I don't care why the currency I have buys roughly the same tomorrow, next week, or next month.  I care that it does.

The problem, as I'm sure you are aware, is that it doesn't.

I guess that makes me lucky because the amount of, say, bread my dollars buys over the past days, weeks, months hasn't changed all that much.  I'm sure there are tiny fluctuations.  There are not fluctuations on the order of bitcoin.
mjcmurfy
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November 17, 2011, 05:12:29 PM
 #49

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Oh, no, he's right, it's exactly the same.  Because it's just as likely that the dollars I have today will buy 25% less bread tomorrow at the grocery store.  Or that the dollars I have today will buy 50% less bread in a few weeks.  Or 93% less bread in a few months.  Is exactly the same, see.

So the reason we transact with fiat is because it doesn't lose its value? Uh huh... tell that to Mr. Bernanke and his printing presses.

The reason we transact with fiat and not bitcoin is because the bitcoin system does not have states, military, and legal systems supporting it. If the dollar had none of that, it would be just as insane as bitcoin. But when fiat currencies die their slow death, bitcoin will still be around.

Failing to understand my post and mocking me just make you sound ignorant.

Look, when I want and need to buy things (food, supplies, entertainment, etc) I don't care why the currency I have buys roughly the same tomorrow, next week, or next month.  I care that it does.

The problem, as I'm sure you are aware, is that it doesn't.

I guess that makes me lucky because the amount of, say, bread my dollars buys over the past days, weeks, months hasn't changed all that much.  I'm sure there are tiny fluctuations.  There are not fluctuations on the order of bitcoin.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/APU0000702111?data_tool=XGtable

I wouldn't call 50% a 'tiny' fluctuation...

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proudhon
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November 17, 2011, 05:51:32 PM
 #50

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Oh, no, he's right, it's exactly the same.  Because it's just as likely that the dollars I have today will buy 25% less bread tomorrow at the grocery store.  Or that the dollars I have today will buy 50% less bread in a few weeks.  Or 93% less bread in a few months.  Is exactly the same, see.

So the reason we transact with fiat is because it doesn't lose its value? Uh huh... tell that to Mr. Bernanke and his printing presses.

The reason we transact with fiat and not bitcoin is because the bitcoin system does not have states, military, and legal systems supporting it. If the dollar had none of that, it would be just as insane as bitcoin. But when fiat currencies die their slow death, bitcoin will still be around.

Failing to understand my post and mocking me just make you sound ignorant.

Look, when I want and need to buy things (food, supplies, entertainment, etc) I don't care why the currency I have buys roughly the same tomorrow, next week, or next month.  I care that it does.

The problem, as I'm sure you are aware, is that it doesn't.

I guess that makes me lucky because the amount of, say, bread my dollars buys over the past days, weeks, months hasn't changed all that much.  I'm sure there are tiny fluctuations.  There are not fluctuations on the order of bitcoin.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/APU0000702111?data_tool=XGtable

I wouldn't call 50% a 'tiny' fluctuation...

Me either. What's the time-frame on that again?
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November 17, 2011, 06:02:48 PM
 #51

Looks like 50% fluctuation over the course of 10 years. Bitcoin has had fluctuations of 50% in a single month, so a couple of orders of magnitude less stable than the USD.

mjcmurfy
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November 17, 2011, 06:09:23 PM
 #52

Me either. What's the time-frame on that again?

If someone shoved their fist up your ass slowly, would it not piss you off just as much? Or would you be ok with that?

If you can only think on short time scales, you are going to eventually get screwed in the long term. At least with bitcoin, the fluctuations are due solely to participants in the market, rather than the institutions who actually control the monetary systems across the world.

Over time, stability will come. Stop asking from bitcoin what it can't give you right now. The client is still in 0.4 beta.

If you want true stability, invest your money in actual bitcoin businesses rather than on casino games like bitcoinica.

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November 17, 2011, 06:49:18 PM
 #53

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Right. Better compare it to gold.

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mjcmurfy
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November 17, 2011, 07:01:53 PM
 #54

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Right. Better compare it to gold.

+100

The exchange of bitcoin for fiat is pointless. We shouldn't be basing the value of a bitcoin on the exchange rate for fiat. Instead we should start exchanging it for more hard assets, like commodities and bitcoin stocks, instead.

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November 17, 2011, 07:12:02 PM
 #55

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Right. Better compare it to gold.

+100

The exchange of bitcoin for fiat is pointless, we should start exchanging more hard assets, like commodities and bitcoin stocks, with it instead.

That comparison is still invalid.
There is a fundamental difference here: Gold can never be substituted for something else.
Bitcoin can, so far new blockchains haven't been very successful but they could be.

It is not that there could be another element used for currency but gold has the best properties to make it one, based on it's physical composition.


I would rather compare them to limited issued 'collectors' numismatic coins which are much more pricier than bullion with better speculative performance but larger fluctuations. Right now bitcoin is the most desired one but this could change... It might not.. I'm just saying that it could.

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November 17, 2011, 07:17:09 PM
 #56

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Right. Better compare it to gold.

+100

The exchange of bitcoin for fiat is pointless. We shouldn't be basing the value of a bitcoin on the exchange rate for fiat. Instead we should start exchanging it for more hard assets, like commodities and bitcoin stocks, instead.

It makes no sense to disconnect Bitcoin from the real world. Why Bitcoin has potential over gold and silver? Simply because it's easy to use in the real world. The best way to produce more goods and services in Bitcoin is to keep importing from and exporting to the fiat world.

Everything should be progressive. The first stage to establish a currency is to make sure exchanging currencies is easy.

Where did we get our Bitcoins? Not everyone of us mine. So we need to exchange.

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mjcmurfy
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November 17, 2011, 07:29:40 PM
 #57

It makes no sense to disconnect Bitcoin from the real world.

I'm not suggesting we should do such a thing. The world of fiat finance is far from 'real' though. Hard assets, commodities, stocks and shares are real. Fiat money is a fiction. What I am saying is that people need to realize that the value of a bitcoin is not solely determined by how much it can be bought or sold for in fiat money. There are many factors, but that seems to be the only one guiding everyones behavior around here.

Where did we get our Bitcoins? Not everyone of us mine. So we need to exchange.

So sell the fiat you have for something that someone else is willing to pay for in bitcoin. Or else provide some other sort of good or service that people are willing to give you bitcoin for. Why do we need to peg what we consider the VALUE of a bitcoin to the fiat exchange rate?

I know there might be some reasons for wanting to do it in the early stages, but I'm suggesting that people should not be too fixated on the fiat exchange rate. They are missing the forest for the trees.

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November 17, 2011, 09:42:33 PM
 #58

I know there might be some reasons for wanting to do it in the early stages, but I'm suggesting that people should not be too fixated on the fiat exchange rate. They are missing the forest for the trees.

I think you are missing the tree right in front of you.

If I buy a mining rig it likely has components in fiat dollars.  If I am rewarded in Bitcoin then the relative value of the two is very important.

Last time I checked my electric company doesn't accept Bitcoins so unless I discover cold fusion the relationship is equally important to keep rigs running.

If I open a Bitcoin store it is very unlikely my distributors accepts Bitcoins and thus the relationship is important here too.  Even if my distributor did accept Bitcoins the products likely aren't available in Bitcoins so the importance of the relationship still exists it just happens to be abstracted.
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November 17, 2011, 09:59:17 PM
 #59

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Right. Better compare it to gold.

+100

The exchange of bitcoin for fiat is pointless. We shouldn't be basing the value of a bitcoin on the exchange rate for fiat. Instead we should start exchanging it for more hard assets, like commodities and bitcoin stocks, instead.

http://coinabul.com

but who would give his precious BTC for gold?

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November 17, 2011, 10:01:41 PM
 #60

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There is also no rational reason why the USD or the EUR is worth anything either, other than a thinly veiled 'promise' from central banks and nation states.

I have made plenty of money on Bitcoins, but please don't try to compare Bitcoin with the USD or the Euro in terms of "why is this worth something". It's a horrible comparison.

Right. Better compare it to gold.

+100

The exchange of bitcoin for fiat is pointless, we should start exchanging more hard assets, like commodities and bitcoin stocks, with it instead.

That comparison is still invalid.
There is a fundamental difference here: Gold can never be substituted for something else.

There are other metals: platinum, silver.

But these are neglegted, while equally suitable for the same function gold is used for. Same as LiteCoin. Gold to Silver like Bitcoin to LiteCoin.

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