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Author Topic: Why will BTC halving stimulate price growth?  (Read 653 times)
Qcrypto
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September 21, 2019, 09:12:51 AM
 #21

As everyone already explained since the supply will drop because of the limited amount of bitcoins the price will increase gradually

then everyone is wrong, or maybe you misunderstood what they were saying.
supply doesn't drop, in fact it is the exact opposite meaning supply is always increasing as new coins are being created by new blocks and come into circulation.
the only thing that drops (by 50% or half) is the speed of that creation meaning if it is X bitcoin per day now, it will be X/2 after the halving (12.5BTC/block -> 6.25 BTC/block or 1800BTC/day -> 900BTC/day).

and finally the reason for price rise is that adoption (demand) is increasing day by day so if you imagine two vectors opposite of each other:
supply ----> <---- demand
after halving supply vector is weaker so demand pushes back to reach equilibrium, that is why price rises
supply --> <---- demand

I can understand how the price can rise when the halving happens.
The miners have electricity costs associated with mining. Cutting their coin supply in half will reduce their profits, so they must compensate with a higher price.

Since they are the "market makers" and they bring more coins into existence, naturally, they would start selling at a higher price to cover their expenses.

This, of course, cannot happen overnight and price will increase gradually.

But what I'm interested in if mining rewards drop by half, it's only logical that prices go up by the same value or around that range.

There must be something else that would make the price go up 10x. Either mass adoption or FOMO.

The way I see it, BTC halving is like Apple saying " Special offer - we are giving away Iphone X at 50% price".  Yeah some people are going to be excited and buy it, and Apple will make a profit, but it won't be extraordinary.

As opposed to Apple announcing brand new IPhone where everyone will go crazy and buy at any price, so Apple makes Billions.

halving does not seem to be the type of event that would create a drastic demand, it will make the price go up by a nice bit, but nothing in the range of 10x that people expect.


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September 21, 2019, 11:51:31 AM
 #22

I hear a lot of discussion around BTC halving that is expected in May 2020.
Many people are confident that this event will trigger the next bull run.

What is the logic behind this?
You are right that it's not a fact this is going to happen. It's just what happened before, and people came up with a way of explaining it and hoping it will happen again. The logic is basically that miners affect the price in a serious way. That the price has to go up, so that mining is still profitable. And it often does. But miners don't have a major and direct influence on the price, actually. Moreover, less than a year ago the price of bitcoin went down to $3k from $6k, contrary to the beliefs of those who think miners are important and thought it was impossible.
So the price might not grow after the next halving, but another reason here is that people try to stay positive and hope for the best.

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September 21, 2019, 11:58:00 AM
 #23

I hear a lot of discussion around BTC halving that is expected in May 2020.
Many people are confident that this event will trigger the next bull run.

What is the logic behind this?

Because we can't deny that the market works in cycle, bears and bulls, bubbles and burst.

I think not only in crypto market, but it is also relevant in other markets as well.

Although there is one parameter as well, supply and demand that we really need to look at. But halving is essentially the catalyst to start a new cycle and ended up in a burst similar to what we have seen in 2017. Just a question on how long are we going to get into a new all-time-high. Prior halvings (2012) took us 500 days to get to a new all time high, while the second halving (2016) takes around 1000 days to get to $20k.  

@Qcrypto - prior halvings posted a huge increased if I'm not mistaken.

First halving, lowest price is $2 -> $200'ish
Second halving, lowest price is $600'ish to almost $20k.

And third halving, recorded lowest price is $3200 last year December 2018, new all-time-high Huh  Grin

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September 21, 2019, 12:11:56 PM
 #24

Bitcoin halving is just a law of demand of supply, miners rewards get shrink to half every 4years and that makes it more scarce and more valuable in price, even with the upcoming badass asic miners from bitmain it won't make a difference in mining reward, mining will still be profitable to those with latest miners
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September 21, 2019, 12:21:57 PM
 #25

Since miners reward is going to drop from the current 12.5BTC to 6.25BTC per block reward, so miners are expected to be selfish with their bitcoin and this will trigger a form of hoarding which will naturally cause a FOMO and buyers will start been bullish. I doubt we are going to get bitcoin this low in May 2020.
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September 21, 2019, 04:40:52 PM
 #26

I hear a lot of discussion around BTC halving that is expected in May 2020.
Many people are confident that this event will trigger the next bull run.

What is the logic behind this?
The halving is literally halving the bitcoin, meaning that the amount of bitcoin that is mined and rewarded by the blocks will be halved, which means that the supply of the bitcoin available will drop down significantly and when the supply goes down and the demand stays the same as it is the prices will defiantly go up, and that is why a lot of people have been talking about it so much and also it is the reason why most of the investors are trying to buy as much as they can right now before this price ascension begin, so if you are trying to make some good profit from holding bitcoin now is your chance.

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September 21, 2019, 04:58:22 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)
 #27

After every halving generation of btc is going lower and lower. Thats the main point
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September 21, 2019, 07:57:45 PM
 #28

Every 4 years, the block reward drops in half, which is commonly known as the halving event.
The current block reward is 12.5 BTC being minted roughly every 10 minutes.
After the halving, only 6.25 BTC will be minted every 10 minutes.
This means that there will be fewer coins being sold by the miners.
Supply drops, demand stays the same. Price goes up.

A significant part of the crypto community, taking into account the previous history of the Bitcoin exchange rate, expects that after the halving 2020, the next period of the active bull market will come. In past periods, in addition to halving the reward to miners, there were many other factors that influenced the Bitcoin exchange rate. However, it is still not worthwhile to exclude relationship between the increase in its price and the ongoing events of the halving.
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September 21, 2019, 09:05:15 PM
 #29

BTC halving stimulate price growth simply because of the idea of supply and demand.  At the current state we have a continuous supply of 12.5 BTC per 10 min then after the halving, we will have 6.25 Bitcoin supply every 10 min.  Isn't that a huge stimuli for a price growth? Aside from that, adoption keep on increasing every minute and with that more demand is being produced so this halving will have a huge effect on the price growth of BTC.

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September 21, 2019, 10:11:30 PM
 #30

We can also read in here https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2019/05/10/what-will-the-next-halving-mean-for-the-price-of-bitcoin/#e4717015f340 the possible effect during halving.
It most cases that halving will have a positive impact on the market cause it helps to reduce the market volume but the demand will remain (or it will increase), therefore the price will also moving high.

As of many halving happens, BTC price is basically high and so people wanted and pretty excited to have halving again. And we don't know that it will trigger for a market bull run.

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September 21, 2019, 10:17:35 PM
 #31

Most people will say that it is because the supply will be affected after that but the price growth involved in BTC halving is always about the hype around it, why? Because a lot of people are expecting it to go up and it triggers a FOMO. If it's about the effect of the supply then Bitcoin won't just go up instantly but in the previous halvings we saw Bitcoin just went up on a short time frame and in that case its more about the FOMO involved rather than the supply being cut, so if the hype stops then expect it to either consolidate or go down. I know halving is a good news for us but really don't expect that everytime Bitcoin goes into halving it will just go up because of it. Because really you still don't know where will it go really or when the price rally will stop.
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September 22, 2019, 12:16:47 PM
 #32

I don't know the reason about it but i think it's because the supply is getting lower since the reward for mining bitcoins were halved (from 12.5 btc to 6.25 btc according to satoshi's paper) so, the demand for bitcoins will increase and the price increases law of demand and supply this is the reason why some altcoins with huge supply can get their prices up since the supply is very high. And the mere fact that halving of bitcoins hype some traders and big whales so, it is expected that whales will keep the bitcoin price high after the halving which a good news for bitcoin holders like us
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September 22, 2019, 07:29:26 PM
 #33

I think bitcoin will go into a bull run when halving comes because as far as I know the last time bitcoin experience halving, its price increase rapidly and that's why people are now focusing on their hodl because they know that there's a bull run that going to happen in 2020. But of course no one knows what will going to happen because like I've said before, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are so volatile and decentralized that you just need to take a risk in order for you to have a good money in the future.
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September 22, 2019, 08:52:04 PM
 #34

I hear a lot of discussion around BTC halving that is expected in May 2020.
Many people are confident that this event will trigger the next bull run.

What is the logic behind this?
Logic is that mining profitability affects bitcoin's price too. Nowdays mininf isn't so profitable as it was in past, more likely it turned into commercial thing because mining companies have a lot of equipments and good electricity rates which still leaves some profit for them while it doesn't worth at home for individual.
So halving means that number of mined bitcoins per block will be half which means almost zero profit. In order to keep mining and profit, we need higher price of bitcoin. In overall halving has very positive impact on people and combination of this and in overall halving situation, price will rise.


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pixie85
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September 22, 2019, 09:26:31 PM
 #35

I think bitcoin will go into a bull run when halving comes because as far as I know the last time bitcoin experience halving, its price increase rapidly and that's why people are now focusing on their hodl because they know that there's a bull run that going to happen in 2020. But of course no one knows what will going to happen because like I've said before, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are so volatile and decentralized that you just need to take a risk in order for you to have a good money in the future.

Usually people are bullish in anticipation of this event and then sell after it happens or just before.

In the long run halving is great and will increase the value of bitcoin but for this process to kick in some time has to pass. New mining equipment will have more power and be more expensive to run making fresh bitcoins much more valuable but the whole economy won't double in value just like that because rewards got halved.
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September 23, 2019, 02:06:50 AM
 #36

Halving means the block reward will be cut in half so miners will get fewer amount of bitcoins on that day onwards. This will result to slower increase of supply in bitcoin. If there is a huge demand for it but a really limited supply in the market then the price will definitely grow.

Have a look at this link, the first and second halvings rallied more than 10,000% so many really expects for bitcoin to rally next year.
https://medium.com/swlh/bitcoin-halving-everything-you-need-to-know-4573dc5b528e

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meanwords
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September 23, 2019, 02:22:33 AM
 #37

I've read that the only reason why Bitcoin price starts pumping before the halving because people assume that the Bitcoin will pump in price. They will buy before the pump which results into Bitcoin actually pumping at the year of halving. Same goes for every copy-cats of Bitcoin. As long as a lot of people believing in something like this, it will surely happen.
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September 23, 2019, 05:33:15 AM
 #38

I've read that the only reason why Bitcoin price starts pumping before the halving because people assume that the Bitcoin will pump in price. They will buy before the pump which results into Bitcoin actually pumping at the year of halving. Same goes for every copy-cats of Bitcoin. As long as a lot of people believing in something like this, it will surely happen.

Many people assume that the price will increase so high before or after the halving, and that will give a chance for people to sell their bitcoin at a very highest price. But we are still waiting for that moment, and we don't know for sure if that will happen or not. If that really happens, then we will see the history will repeat again, and that will make people in out there will be amazed. And who knows, the price can pass the last time of the highest price that we already have seen before.

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Herbert2020
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September 23, 2019, 07:36:58 AM
 #39

As everyone already explained since the supply will drop because of the limited amount of bitcoins the price will increase gradually

then everyone is wrong, or maybe you misunderstood what they were saying.
supply doesn't drop, in fact it is the exact opposite meaning supply is always increasing as new coins are being created by new blocks and come into circulation.
the only thing that drops (by 50% or half) is the speed of that creation meaning if it is X bitcoin per day now, it will be X/2 after the halving (12.5BTC/block -> 6.25 BTC/block or 1800BTC/day -> 900BTC/day).

and finally the reason for price rise is that adoption (demand) is increasing day by day so if you imagine two vectors opposite of each other:
supply ----> <---- demand
after halving supply vector is weaker so demand pushes back to reach equilibrium, that is why price rises
supply --> <---- demand

I can understand how the price can rise when the halving happens.
The miners have electricity costs associated with mining. Cutting their coin supply in half will reduce their profits, so they must compensate with a higher price.

Since they are the "market makers" and they bring more coins into existence, naturally, they would start selling at a higher price to cover their expenses.

no, you are completely wrong. miners are NOT market makers. they are only one of many participants, many of them are not even big enough to be considered a whale let alone a market maker.
additionally, it doesn't matter what people sell their coins at, it will NOT increase the price. what increases the price is when the demand (the buyers) want to buy bitcoin at a higher price by outbidding each other. so for example you can place sell orders on all exchanges for total of 10 million bitcoin each at $1 million but it will not change the price even 1 cent!

you see when it comes to supply and demand it is called supply AND demand not just supply alone.

Weak hands have been complaining about missing out ever since bitcoin was $1 and never buy the dip.
Whales are those who keep buying the dip.
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September 23, 2019, 09:22:40 AM
Merited by Herbert2020 (1)
 #40

Look at this chart, it indicates all previous block halvings.
The cycle on every blockchain is always positive for the price of Bitcoin, always creating it's new all-time-high once there is upcoming block halving.
And use this website for countdown on the bitcoin block halving.
Website : https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/


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