$5,000 is the number - so get used to it.

[BrewMaster]

Personally I don't understand the thesis of acknowledging the price can drop 25%+ to $6k area but not 50%+ to $4k level if there is natural bearish correction.

you don't understand it because you are calling it a "correction" and your percentages are way off the mark.
a drop down to $4k is not only not a correction but also it is a gigantic crash. the size of it is going to be a little less than 70%. so in other words if you even consider $4k you are considering the market to crash (for no reason i should add) hard!

[exstasie]

Personally I don't understand the thesis of acknowledging the price can drop 25%+ to $6k area but not 50%+ to $4k level if there is natural bearish correction.

you don't understand it because you are calling it a "correction" and your percentages are way off the mark.
a drop down to $4k is not only not a correction but also it is a gigantic crash. the size of it is going to be a little less than 70%. so in other words if you even consider $4k you are considering the market to crash (for no reason i should add) hard!

There never needs to be a reason other than excess supply, weak demand, and thin liquidity.

Also, the market crashed 83% in April 2013 before making a new all-time high 6 months later. So obviously the April-July 2013 dip was just a pullback in a larger bull market. So a crash can be a correction.

[STT]

April 2013 as I remember was just 'quiet' and people didnt know what it would do, back then mining still profitable so nobody was going away but alot of people just sold as they mined they didnt speculate or least from the pool and people I knew.   Eventually it kept a kind of steady price and then it grew gigantically for the rest of the year.    Quiet can be quite bullish it seems, even if people are moaning about the present for the future it can turn out surprisingly positive.    Going lower is possible but will it spike to a low, burn the hand of the sellers or settle out over time and then rise after a dead calm.

Personally I don't understand the thesis of acknowledging the price can drop

Thats the inverse of what I think when people get a bit carried away when price went to 13k, why not 20k why not 50k but the further it goes especially in a short period of time the more unsteady I think it is and resistance will rise, sellers are more motivated.    As we go lower it will hit some bedrock, speculators give up guessing.   Markets are always ironic, its like herding sheep or cats or something they never do what you want or expect.

[exstasie]

April 2013 as I remember was just 'quiet' and people didnt know what it would do, back then mining still profitable so nobody was going away but alot of people just sold as they mined they didnt speculate or least from the pool and people I knew.   Eventually it kept a kind of steady price and then it grew gigantically for the rest of the year.    Quiet can be quite bullish it seems, even if people are moaning about the present for the future it can turn out surprisingly positive.

Good point. The April-July 2013 period continues to be the closest historical parallel we have to our current market position.

That's when I was first getting really into trading. I remember the market felt completely dead during that summer.....like silent. And that June breakdown felt like a nail in the coffin, just like the breakdown last month did.

I was really fortunate to be heavily following Lucif (Masterluc) at that time. He called the bottom perfectly in July and while I was terrified, I ended up following him into the market, getting in near the bottom before the November bubble.

I'm drawing on that experience now, trying not to give in to the bearish sentiment currently enveloping the market.