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Author Topic: how much could bitcoin actuall gro to per coin?  (Read 2693 times)
julz
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November 22, 2011, 01:55:05 AM
 #41

I could easily envision that the worldwide transaction demand for BTC could easily reach $2 billion or more.  Given that there are less than 8 million bitcoins out there, that would equate to $250 per coin.  Bitcoins is the perfect instrument for small ticket item transaction ecommerce and people will have to hold a bitcoin inventory to transact, so I'm very optimistic.

Optimistic - yes wildly so I think.
My own 'optimistic' scenario I wrote above suggested that over $90Billion per year in transactions *could* be supported on only a fraction of the coins, and with only a value of $30 per coin.
Now there were probably a lot of wild assumptions in my scenario - but I don't think you can just take some transaction demand in $billions and divide by the number of coins to get a per coin trading value.

@electricwings   BM-GtyD5exuDJ2kvEbr41XchkC8x9hPxdFd
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Once a transaction has 6 confirmations, it is extremely unlikely that an attacker without at least 50% of the network's computation power would be able to reverse it.
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Rockford99
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November 22, 2011, 07:59:33 AM
 #42

collars, it would be immensely useful.  Then people could have a knowable band is which BTCs will fluctuate.
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November 22, 2011, 08:47:01 AM
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I think maybe we need to define crypto-currency.  I was speak of system devised by Satoshi a peer to peer distributed currency that requires no trusted 3rd party for validation.

The question is if consumers will make that distinction; if enough consumer dont, then you have competition even if the competing systems arent p2p.

If they do, it still wouldnt preclude any corporation (or government for that matter) from launching one. Just about every second poster on this forum seems to have started an alt chain at some point. They might tinker with it, like giving themselves the option to generate coins with no mining, premine a shitload of coins, make it so that the mining only works on their devices (think gaming console) or who knows what. Frankly, I have no idea what they could come up with, but Im not going to assume there is not going to be fierce competition for bitcoin.

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No company like Sony is going to ever use a Sony p2p currency only for use in Sony land.  There is no advantage of using a p2p currency in a centralized system.
 

Why not? After all the hacking incidents, Sony might get the idea that p2p is more secure than centralized. Im sure they could come up with a mining algorithm that can only work with their hardware. I mean, thats just one thought: you can obtain SonyCoins by just running your console or sony laptop. Each playstation game or sony movie you buy gives you some key that allows a higher hashrate or mine on other chains within the SonyCoin system that would have a lower difficulty. Dont ask me how, I got no clue, and if I had, Sony would have to pay me for the idea :p

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It is massively inefficient to do so (there is significant overhead in blockchain that can be easily handled by a trusted 3rd party = Sony).  Simply put Bitcoin is HORRIBLE inefficient it just happens to be the only way to handle commerce without a central trusted 3rd party.  If you have a central trusted 3rd party you don't need Bitcoin or any p2p currency.

SonyCoin could be made orders of magnitude more efficient by limiting the devices that can mine by relying on some builtin TPM module needed to sign hashes or something.

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November 22, 2011, 02:13:49 PM
 #44

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I mean, thats just one thought: you can obtain SonyCoins by just running your console or sony laptop.
Why?  Currently you can only get SonyCoins (credits) by paying 100% of the money to Sony.   Same thing w/ Xbox currency.  What would Sony gain by allowing gamers to generate their own currency, and profit from transaction validation.  Lower profits?  Legal accountability for 51% attack?

SonyCoin could be made orders of magnitude more efficient by limiting the devices that can mine by relying on some builtin TPM module needed to sign hashes or something.

It could be made more efficient than Bitcoin by restricting it to a specific hardware however it would never be more efficient than Sony simply using a centralized server to check numbers in a database.  It doesn't reduce the risk of hacking.  If SonyCoin is made by the same designers who built Sony centralized processing backend then it has the risk of having a flaw.  That flaw could still be exploited.  Being distributable doesn't create security.  Worse if limited to specific hardware it is only a matter of time before someone breaks that and runs it on much more powerful hardware instantly gaining 51% control w/ a token amount of hardware.

TL/DR version:
The only singular advantage (and it is massive) that a p2p blockchain has is eliminating the need to trust a 3rd party.  Building a chain which requires trust in a 3rd party is dubious.  You don't gain any advantages over central validation and carry with you all the massive cost, complexity, and additional risks (51% attack, double spends, finney attack, etc) that come w/ a p2p network.  Bitcoins accepts all those costs and risks for the singular goal of not having to trust a 3rd party.  

While Sony may someday create a centrally issued, controlled, and validated SonyBucks I wouldn't consider it a cryptocurrency anymore than eGold, Dwolla, or Beenz are crypto-currencies.  Digital money?  Sure but not a crypto-currency as defined by Satoshi.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beenz.com
P4man
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November 22, 2011, 02:40:35 PM
 #45

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I mean, thats just one thought: you can obtain SonyCoins by just running your console or sony laptop.
Why?  Currently you can only get SonyCoins (credits) by paying 100% of the money to Sony.   Same thing w/ Xbox currency.  What would Sony gain by allowing gamers to generate their own currency, and profit from transaction validation.  Lower profits?  Legal accountability for 51% attack?

Spur sales of consoles as mining devices? Reward loyal customers? And at the same time have a system that doesnt suffer from drawbacks of centrally issued digital currencies. Remember, thats the point, if customer dont care about the difference, then bitcoin will compete with all the other digital currencies anyhow. If it turns out consumers do care, corporations could implement whatever aspects of bitcoin that consumers perceive as its strength, even going all the way of opensource and p2p if they have to. What would Sony have to lose? If they would only accept SonyCoins at market prices for their shop, its not like it would cost them anything. They can just sell those coins like anyone else.

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