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Author Topic: Gambling activities correlates with Bitcoin's price?  (Read 712 times)
DaftAjax
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October 19, 2019, 01:33:11 AM
 #101

~snip
Live Charts won't really help, cause it doesn't give enough information for people to take right trading decision.
Both fundamental and technical thing are publicly available for sure but still sometimes people lose big funds or maybe an opportunity to take profit on their trade.

Let's put an example :
X - After checking the charts, X finds that tomorrow, Bitcoin price will jump hard and he decides to buy some Bitcoin.
Y - After checking the charts, Y finds that tomorrow, Bitcoin price will slightly go down and he sells out all of his Bitcoin.
Then tomorrow is coming and Bitcoin price jumps hard.

This is what I mean about information, if Y really has information to take right decision then he would have not sold his Bitcoin.

In the strong-form of market efficient hypothesis (which is likely impossible to exist), people can't really take significant profit cause everyone has same information and the price won't have a significant changes.

That is why I called crypto market is in a weak-form, perhaps in the future, at least for Bitcoin, it can changes to semi-strong which we can find that from the price changes.

Lastly, I know that nothing last forever.. and it's possible for everything to sometimes changes to others and back to the previous  conditions.

That's an interesting analogy.

But then again, it all falls down to the decision of Y. That's why I've mentioned earlier that you have to look up for multiple Live Charts. And it also depends on the person, if the trader has the skills and strategies. But I would argue that everyone has the same information, if so then why X and Y have different decisions? So, I think Live Charts still matters, you just need to find the right one--that's reliable. I'm sure a lot of traders gain profit by this very same method. I can't really prove it to you but in logic, it is quite correct.

For the year 2018 ~ 2019, the price differences are really significantly close, because it is volatile I would say, its the "stable" price of Bitcoin so far.



~snip

I don't get your explanation about a bullish trend or bearish trend.

What I understand about the trends is it relates to the entire market movement, we might see a bullish or bearish but it does not depend on gambling activities in general or the cash flow (in and out) in gambling because I believe the gambling industry does not even hold 50% of the entire crypto circulation in the space.

I apologize, that's not what I meant.

What I'm trying to say is, whenever we have a bullish trend, people tend to gamble but whenever we have a bearish trend they wouldn't. Yes, you're correct, gambling doesn't have the volume to "contribute" to Bitcoin's price change, it might be insignificant (or even a spec), but the point is gambling activities is correlated to Bitcoin's price, but not vice versa.

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