20K by March, A positive Look at the market.

[mikeywith]

During my Free time, I like to look at bitcoin chart and compare the current situation to the past, I sometimes stumble upon some very interesting similarities, some make sense, some don't , but they all are worth sharing.

These similarities tend to work more often than not , for example, back in Dec 2018 , i made this thread


ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be

a while later I made another one

Bitcoin bottom could be around the corner ! interesting chart !


Since those were not satisfying enough , I went ahead and dug a little deeper , and came up with this.

Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis


Recently , I started this thread

The king is about to wake up.

Explaining how were we suppose to test the 20SMA weekly , well sadly the prediction of that movement was terrible, it went way too far than what I initially thought it would go, this goes out to show that nothing is 100% accurate, but as mentioned before, happens more often than not!.


This time , i zoomed out a little, used the monthly chart, and used only fibonacci retracement since we are in a "supposedly" a correction wave, it makes sense to understand how low can we go ,and what's next !




Since the start of Bitcoin market,we had only 2 major bull trends (nearly 2 years long) and 2 bear markets (nearly a year long)

In this chart I am interested in how does each bull trend starts, assuming ofcourse that we are now in the 3rd bull move which suppose to last about 2 years , we are nearly a year in now.

by drawing the Fib from the bottom to the top of each bull market, we get some interesting facts.

1-A correction all the way down below that 0.786 (blue)  > Done
2-A rejection from the 0.618 > Skipped
3-A rejection from the 0.382 (14k) > Done
4-A retest of the 0.618  at around 7700$ > still confirming.... Done
5-A retest of the 0.5 level (9900$)  > unknown but must happen this month  Done
6-A steady move to ATL ATH in 5 months > unknown


This is how I think the market is going to play out for the a few coming months , but notice that this is only the real big picture of the market and not suitable for short term plans/trades.

My short term analysis can be found here ,  not recommended to moon and lambo boys with soft hearts.  


Good luck.

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[soxxx]

I believe we will touch 20k before halving but fail to break it until after. This is in line with my belief.

[timerland]

This is great analysis mate, worthy of a merit. I've always been interested in technical analysis, but a lot of the articles I've seen are purely based on speculation. I can actually see the trends and your estimations do actually make sense here.

I've always personally been under the impression that history often repeats itself and this entire technical analysis goes hand in hand with that view.

Great work. Hope to see more threads from you mate.

[CryptoBry]

Thanks a lot @mikeywith for taking the time to post this amazing analysis here. I am not actually technically-gifted person but your post seems easy to catch up. I am expecting that by next month Bitcoin can try to break the $9900 level and from thereon until the end of December we can be moving sideways. Do you think that can be possible based on your charts?

[el kaka22]

20 thousand dollars by march only looking at charts look to be a weird. I mean I would agree but I would agree because of the may halving that would have value outside of charts we can't read. After all, the amount of printed coins everyday will drop from 1800 to 900 which should have some sort of "lack of sales" type of issue for the sellers (literally 900 bitcoins less sold which is around 8 million dollars A DAY) but none of this can be found on charts, it is not in any indicator neither, it is just a sentiment from all of us and a common sense that combines all information together and say "if there will be less coins sold, then there will be a higher price".

Maybe we are wrong, maybe it won't happen but I would agree with your prediction with all the info I have outside of charts.

[mersal]

Bitcoin believes will bring positive analysis.

I am also looking for the price increase before the halvening not sure it will break 20K or not but it will bring some bump to make the investors to be convinced again to invest.

What about the TA for December 2019,we are going to move down again?

[exstasie]

This is how I think the market is going to play out for the a few coming months , but notice that this is only the real big picture of the market and not suitable for short term plans/trades.

My short term analysis can be found here ,  not recommended to moon and lambo boys with soft hearts. 

I'm glad to see you came around to the bull side. You seemed really bearish a week ago.

In conventional terms this bounce off $7,700 would be seen as a shorting opportunity, but old hands know the bottom may already be in. In terms of momentum, volume, and sentiment I see lots of parallels to the July 2013 bottom.

[buwaytress]

Actually wasn't such a bad read at all, OP.

Interesting that you thought the bull market lasted a year (and that you're assuming this is also another bull). I don't disagree with the facts, that Bitcoin is still almost 200% up from its low of this year, but I see any unsuccessful climb back to ATH (that's what you meant with ATL, right?) as part and parcel of the pullback-recovery cycle that forms the pre-bull consolidation phase.

9900 must happen this month -- I agree, else we'll say hello to 6k again.

[YuginKadoya]

Good chart in my opinion 2020 will surely have a chance in making year seems to go another fly to the moon movement and this year is trying to ready us in another bullish run, If the $9900 USD would happen this Month maybe that will be a positive sign for us to really ready for another All-time high this coming March, But even though I like a more positive call on this it may land to March or even the  following month of April but I must say nice analysis I am seeing that chart to make another comparison with the previews one and I think we can surely see it getting near.

[gabbie2010]

From your charting analysis the price of bitcoin is in an uptrend with the price breaking the resistance at $13K while the price retrace back to the resistance turned support thus sustaining the momentum until it reaches $20K well based on your Technical analysis there are a lot of resistance which the price has to break to attain the price mark with SEC approval of bitcoin then the price will have a smooth ride to $20K how soon is a question that isn't easy to answer.

[lionheart78]

Actually wasn't such a bad read at all, OP.

Interesting that you thought the bull market lasted a year (and that you're assuming this is also another bull). I don't disagree with the facts, that Bitcoin is still almost 200% up from its low of this year, but I see any unsuccessful climb back to ATH (that's what you meant with ATL, right?) as part and parcel of the pullback-recovery cycle that forms the pre-bull consolidation phase.

9900 must happen this month -- I agree, else we'll say hello to 6k again.

Well some analyst just stated  that Bitcoin moving to $9000 is confirmed, At the latest comment here : https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ATWYWJch-Bitcoin-Changes-Sentimient-Bullish-Or-Bearish-Now-Altcoins/

Comment: Bitcoin Confirmed To Be Moving Higher... $9,000 Next!

so we just need another $900  to confirm the next scenario.

$20k on March is quite feasible with halving and Fomo, but these prediction https://cointelegraph.com/news/tom-lee-predicts-bitcoin-to-reach-91000-by-march-2020-based-on-performances-after-past-dips, is quite unrealistic lol.

[mikeywith]

I'm glad to see you came around to the bull side. You seemed really bearish a week ago.

I have been always on the bull side as far as the large picture is concerned, in fact I have more interest towards price going up, I just like to keep a neutral look when comes to day trading, my last week bearish look is still there, the current/short term is in fact still bearish, we are still trading below the 20SMA on the weekly and we had a the 5SMA crossing below it as well, which means 8900$ (5sma) and 9900$ (20SMA) are not bad positions for shorting at all, but given the fact that the overall picture is somehow bullish, any short position must be done very conservatively.

After all this whole correction is creating a large bull-flag , the target of the flag size alone is good enough to hit 20k , let alone the pole size target, while I will still look to short those areas if I get the chance, I am also considering my plans of going long.



There are many good trading opportunities here, but to keep this thread simple, let's just say that things look pretty bullish overall.

Interesting that you thought the bull market lasted a year (and that you're assuming this is also another bull).

It's about 2 years for the BULL market, and only 1 year for the Bear.

(that's what you meant with ATL, right?)

That was a typo, i meant to type ATH , by the way ATL is also a possibility, but it sounds as realistic a time machine 

[exstasie]

I'm glad to see you came around to the bull side. You seemed really bearish a week ago.

I have been always on the bull side as far as the large picture is concerned, in fact I have more interest towards price going up, I just like to keep a neutral look when comes to day trading, my last week bearish look is still there, the current/short term is in fact still bearish, we are still trading below the 20SMA on the weekly and we had a the 5SMA crossing below it as well, which means 8900$ (5sma) and 9900$ (20SMA) are not bad positions for shorting at all, but given the fact that the overall picture is somehow bullish, any short position must be done very conservatively.

From the look of those arrows you've already called the bottom, no? That's what I meant.

Conventional traders would short the $9,000s but I'm done shorting myself. The easy gains are already done. Given the sentiment and bearish positions accumulated over the past couple weeks, it's possible BTC just slices right through these "expected" resistances with no major dips and breaks out with authority. July 2013 is my closest model so far, and in that case there really was no major dip until the Silk Road crash in October.

[stadus]

Great analysis, if we just based on the chart alone, there's a possibility that we will reach at this price at that time.
However, we know that this market isn't just about the chart or our TA, major reason why the market more is due to hype and FUD and of course we need some big news that will be considered as a driving factor.

I'm just hoping by that time we will have some good news within the market so we can push that TA of yours.

[BitHodler]

9900 must happen this month -- I agree, else we'll say hello to 6k again.

"must" lmao....

In all seriousness, the market just needs to flush out a lot of weak hands and traders with profitable positions. I am currently stacking up fiat preparing for a $5-$6k visit. I don't often get bearish, but now I rightfully am.

Realistically speaking, $5k is a bit of a stretch, but with how irrational the market is a $5k flash wick might be a great (possibly once in a lifetime) opportunity to enter the market at such lower levels.

After all, it's Bitcoin that we're talking about---pumps and dumps have happened for nearly a decade so don't expect the market to suddenly behave differently. People also thought the market changed last year and paid the price for it.

[buwaytress]

9900 must happen this month -- I agree, else we'll say hello to 6k again.

"must" lmao....

In all seriousness, the market just needs to flush out a lot of weak hands and traders with profitable positions. I am currently stacking up fiat preparing for a $5-$6k visit. I don't often get bearish, but now I rightfully am.

Realistically speaking, $5k is a bit of a stretch, but with how irrational the market is a $5k flash wick might be a great (possibly once in a lifetime) opportunity to enter the market at such lower levels.

After all, it's Bitcoin that we're talking about---pumps and dumps have happened for nearly a decade so don't expect the market to suddenly behave differently. People also thought the market changed last year and paid the price for it.

Was only quoting OP, why the lols =p but anyway, yeah, it was an expression for a speculation thread, surely people are allowed to make some predeterminations

I have always wanted this flush to happen, or the purge as I have been calling it. I was in this regard rather disappointed when after the near 3k low, Bitcoin surged all the way back to past 13k. So of course weak hands git stronger and people went right back into hype mode. Ah well!

@lionheart today was some kind of half hearted push for a breakout!

[vintages]

I always have  a positive outlook on the price of Bitcoin, so I always see a price increase even when there is a dump.

I am personally looking at a price of 25k by March but looking at the recent price with your analysis OP, I think a price of 20k is what might come.

[dark08]

Thanks for the technical analysis OP if this happen by march most people will be happy but always consider the volatility of bitcoin I always look for two scenario one for bullish and other for bearish.
I just hoping this will happen sooner but right now bitcoin suddenly on bearish trend.

[enhu]

The sooner it will happen the better. When support lever turns resistance every time there is a breakout, its a positive indicator that there prices will be better.  2020 must be the year where we see btc hit the ATH once again.   just wish I have more time to acquire more BTC actually in order for me to at least have some more funds to either buy some altcoins that I think will also go up.

[exstasie]

Realistically speaking, $5k is a bit of a stretch, but with how irrational the market is a $5k flash wick might be a great (possibly once in a lifetime) opportunity to enter the market at such lower levels.

Sure it's possible, but don't be too greedy waiting for it. I often look for a high volume capitulation to indicate bottoms in BTC but it's important to note there have been major historic bottoms (like July 2013) that ended not with a bang but a whimper.

It's possible we quietly bottom on low volume (or already have) and just gradually start sliding upwards again. Those are the most frustrating sorts of bottoms for shorters and can lead to some impressive squeezes.