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 Author Topic: Noob: basic mining math question  (Read 96 times)
jtreble
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 October 10, 2019, 03:23:04 PM

Noob/first post - appreciate some help.  I'm doing some basic modelling and would like to know if I have the following logic right:

If the current network hash rate is 360,000,000,000 TH/h; one has a 244,800 TH/h miner; and, the network reward is 75 (BTC/h) one would theoretically expect to mine 0.000051 BTC/h, correct?

What am I missing?

Apologies for all the "hour" based units - this is a hydro application.  TIA.

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xhomerx10
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Aceeasi Marie cu alta palarie

 October 10, 2019, 08:47:29 PMMerited by pooya87 (1), hugeblack (1), DdmrDdmr (1), fillippone (1), GSpgh (1)

Noob/first post - appreciate some help.  I'm doing some basic modelling and would like to know if I have the following logic right:

If the current network hash rate is 360,000,000,000 TH/h; one has a 244,800 TH/h miner; and, the network reward is 75 (BTC/h) one would theoretically expect to mine 0.000051 BTC/h, correct?

What am I missing?

Apologies for all the "hour" based units - this is a hydro application.  TIA.

You can use that as a rough estimate but the actual amount should be calculated using the difficulty D
The number of blocks you will find can be calculated using

ht/(232D)

Where;
h is your hash rate in hashes per second
t is the time spent mining in seconds
D is the current difficulty

So with a hash rate of 244,800 TH/h (which equates to 68,000,000,000,000 h/s) and you mine for an hour (3600 seconds) at the current difficulty of 13,008,091,666,971.9

You can expect to mine 4.38165e-6 blocks in one hour

The block reward is presently 12.5 coins so

4.38165e-6 x 12.5 = .00005477 Bitcoin/hr

The hash rate of the network is never known and must be calculated based on the number of blocks being found per given unit of time which is a direct function of difficulty.  There is always variability due to the probabilistic nature of hashing.  If the network hashrate appears to be stable over a longer time frame ie a week, then your calculation would be fairly accurate but if the hash rate is increasing/decreasing over that time period, then more/less than 75 coins per hour will be found if the difficulty has not yet reset.  The reset period is 2016 blocks which takes on average 2 weeks.
jtreble
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 October 11, 2019, 01:15:06 PM

odolvlobo
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 October 12, 2019, 11:43:17 PM

Noob/first post - appreciate some help.  I'm doing some basic modelling and would like to know if I have the following logic right:

If the current network hash rate is 360,000,000,000 TH/h; one has a 244,800 TH/h miner; and, the network reward is 75 (BTC/h) one would theoretically expect to mine 0.000051 BTC/h, correct?

Roughly speaking, your portion of the block reward is equal to your portion of the total hash rate. If your hash rate is 244,800 TH/h and the total hash rate is 360,000,000,000 TH/h, then your portion is 0.00000068 of the block reward, or 0.000051 BTC.

However, that calculation makes several assumptions. xhomerx10 describes how to get the actual expectation.

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