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Question: Bitmain Strategy For The Future. Price/ROI.
Op is correct on Bitmain Strategy! - 4 (50%)
Op is delusional on Bitmain Strategy! - 1 (12.5%)
Bitmain would never do such! - 1 (12.5%)
Mining is deader than dead! Moot! - 1 (12.5%)
No Viewpoint! - 1 (12.5%)
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Author Topic: Current Bitmain Hardware Dump 10/13/19. Very ugly at 10c kWh to ROI Ever! POLL!  (Read 447 times)
Searing
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October 13, 2019, 04:39:26 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 01:13:14 AM by frodocooper
Merited by suchmoon (4), Steamtyme (1)
 #1

But on 10/13/19 the Bitmain site had a mess of stuff for pre-order or direct purchase.

Well, I think I know why Bitmain is dumping product now in mass. From the following link seems they are looking at 5nm in early 2020 and are working on 3nm chips as we speak. See this article: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/bitmain-ceo-bullish-behavior-unlikely-following-may-2020-btc-halving/

We are utterly screwed as small miners unless the price rises significantly before these 5nm and 3nm chips are in play. Again, IMHO, why Bitmain is dumping ASIC's in mass.

I'll post 3 of the large units as examples of what they offer for prices and watts and what they would make in the USA at 10c kWh. WITHOUT the USA Tariff and Import Fees (27.6%) and shipping price from China. So I will do my calculations (again without tariff/import fees/shipping) at 10c kWh.

For these two pre-order units at least. As long as I did the calculations anyway, I'll post my links to calculators and results here.

Note: There are other units on the Bitmain site that I've not listed. Some I would have but Bitmain lists no watts for some of these units.

Also only did the below high-end units. The result is dismal enough, IMHO, no need to beat a dead horse and list all units. You'll get the idea.

I used the below link to determine hash/power/profit.

What to Mine Site. BTC Checked Box. Also, the price was taken from https://coinmarketcap.com/ for BTC.

https://whattomine.com/asic
    
-------------------
Antminer S17+ 73TH at 2920 watts and the price of $2,833.00 pre-order. Delivery December 1st-10th, 2019. PRE-ORDER.
-------------------

At the current BTC price of $8,430.00 at 10c kWh. You would make at flat difficulty (now) and price (today) of $5.00  per day profit. With an ROI of 566 days! Yech!

--------------------
Antminer T17+ 64TH at 3200 watts and the price of $1,802.00 pre-order. Delivery December 1st-10th, 2019. PRE-ORDER.
--------------------

At the current BTC price of $8,430.00 at 10c kWh. You would make at flat difficulty (now) and price (today) of $2.84 per day profit. With an ROI of 635 days! Yech!

----------------------
Antminer S17 Pro 50TH at (using middle watts at the low figure of the high scale) of 2250 watts. Price is $2,502. Delivery October 21st-31st, 2019. AVAILABLE NOW.
----------------------

At the current BTC price of $8,430.00 at 10c kWh. You would make at flat difficulty (now) and price (today) of $2.84 per day profit. With an ROI of 881 days! Yech!

Also as you can see from the above, this is very, very, unlikely for anyone in the USA, in particular, to get an ASIC miner at the USA average price of 10c kWh, even if NO tariff/import fees/shipping. This is also my electric rate, so hopefully, you can beat this by a considerable margin and laugh at my expense! Sad

So anyway, IMHO, we have all seen this game before. Bitmain dumping equipment in mass just before Christmas. Takes pre-orders that are not shipped around Christmas and then because of Chinese New Year the stuff you pre-ordered that will supposedly arrive end of December 2019, will actually arrive middle of February 2010, due to all the holidays. At that point, they will be distributing newer units sometime in the spring, maybe, 5nm ASIC chip units to themselves driving up hash rate for 3-5 months before releasing to the public at inflated prices as seems to be their strategy.  After say, that dump end of Summer, they then have the 3nm stuff to put in play for equipment again at their data halls first. Thus the 'long-con' IMHO (see article) of buying miners now because it is going to mature slowly theme. Hey, trust us. Smiley

Indeed it is the usual scam of rinse/wash/repeat.

The ONLY way anyone could mine these days, under these conditions, again, IMHO, is IF you are mining like heck at a loss and to HODL for fun on the expectation of BTC doubling or some such after halving in 2020 or some other long term dream. But in reality, if you believe such, you'd be better off with an automatic bank withdrawal monthly buy off BTC to HODL on an exchange until that point happens someday as your bet, of BTC doubling in price.

Looks unlikely I'll be mining anything of any note until maybe 'used' equipment in 2021 at this rate.

Anyway, fun while it lasted.

later

Brad (Bitmain: Trust us, we do 'evil' right!)

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Searing
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October 13, 2019, 04:42:37 PM
 #2

Reserved

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October 13, 2019, 04:44:02 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 01:14:34 AM by frodocooper
 #3

Nice find  but I can't believe it at all must be a tactical lie.

As it turns out, Bitmain is planning to release a new five nanometer mining application in early 2020. The product is set for mass production during the first quarter and will feature “specific integrated circuits” to ensure mining is done faster. Furthermore, he claims that Bitmain is in the process of building “repair centers” that will significantly lessen the time needed to make repairs by the end of this year...

first off 10cent mining = loser

we are now pretty much industrial.

ie: 6cent mining is the new 10 mining

I simply do not understand why bitmain would announce 5nm chips due in early 2020.

They undercut all the sales they are listing.

Also last I looked  intel amd and nvidia do not have 5nm chips

nor does apple or samsung.

Stands to reason they would put the chips out first.

I did find this on 5nm chip for  a samsung phone

Samsung only just started manufacturing 7-nanometer chips recently, but it's already taken another big step in the race to keep up with Moore's Law. The company announced that it has started sampling 5-nanometer chips, and will start building them for smartphones and other gadgets in the second quarter of 2020. The benefits won't be enormous, but they will be significant: You'll get about a 20 percent savings in power, or a 10 percent boost in speed.

So May-June of 2020  for sammy may happen

based on that  at least a few months past  May-June  maybe Nov-Dec for the 5nm  s19-21 miner.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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October 13, 2019, 04:53:28 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 01:16:09 AM by frodocooper
 #4

Not a lie per se, but I'm pretty sure 5nm and 3nm will units will go to bitmain data halls first and be used to drive up difficulty 4-5 months, then product released to masses at inflated prices. Seems to be how they roll. As to the lie, if they really do figure 'slow growth' and you should get miners for the long haul said in the article (my interpretation) then the 3nm and 5nm stuff above (via past actions by bitmain on the release of ASIC's) really puts a 'pause' in my thinking that view was not there to move product. Even if they think it is true. Whatever, I'm so far out of mining NOW it is silly, even without the tariff/etc.

I have ONE S9i running that I will never ROI I 'dubiously' got this summer paid up at my buddies (Maxumark) Data Hall till Jan 1st, 2020.

Mostly, because I waste money like a drunken sailor since retirement and thus 'some' of my wasted money will AT LEAST show up as dubious overpriced mined BTC!

Besides, seeing the miner chug along each day is 'soothing' to my complete large scale ASCI hard withdrawal addiction! Ack!

But always remember, we are talking about Bitmain which for more than a year or two denied ASCI BOOST even existed. It is how they roll!

Brad



They can do such because 1) They determine where such units will go when 5nm comes out 2) The mass of now (IMHO) overpriced by at least 25% miners they push on the site. Also, the fact that they are NOT selling out due to BTC/Crypto prices. In other words, they have to keep the doors open for ASIC manufacturing and the lights on and their design team paid, etc. I've no doubt that is their plan for 5nm in Spring, but you are right could be just hype.

By the By, where can a guy get into this 6c kWh mining you talk about. The best I've seen with full fees etc is 8c kWh and that is usually overseas and thus killed by shipping and 'setup fees per unit'. I want in on that action if full 6c kWh with fees. The 10c kWh with fees was everything including shipping and setup.

Again, I've no idea wtf is going on with mining. I just know I'm on the sidelines buying BTC on Coinbase or whatever..misssing it. Sad

later

Brad

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October 13, 2019, 05:03:55 PM
 #5

Well  they have the best miner on the market  the 53th pro is doing 36-39.5 watts a th

As I read the 5nm claims for power saving to be 10-20percent  it is not worth rushing to market if the s19 pro does

s19 pro at 10% better is
32.4 low speed
35.5 middle speed
37.8 high speed


not much better then

36        low
39.5     middle
42        high

I would think  that they would milk the edge this has over the m20s  maybe  they feel threatened by whatsminer.

I guess if it was 20%  better then the s17pro

28.8 low speed
31.6 middle
33.6 high        it would make more sense to drop 500 to 800 million into new gear.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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October 13, 2019, 05:30:35 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 01:17:46 AM by frodocooper
Merited by frodocooper (4)
 #6

For the ROI have a look here https://imgur.com/DSADsxM did an estimate/guestimate based on $0.04 and $0.06 per Kw with some more details here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191425.20.

As mentioned above, 10 cents is never going to ROI happily, just buy with cash if you can and buy OTC, IMHO, as you said as well.

As far as I have seen so far, most of the people are old in this game and play their ROI to reinvest in equipment, so there is a constant cash flow available and even if that would happen (the 5 and later 3 nm chips), with the direction of mainly industrial size miners, there would be no loses as big as imagined.

Why? After the halving, a few will close shops, a few will hope for higher BTC price, and a few will turn the machines back on once it will be profitable again.

I do believe your post title is correct 10c a kWh you are fuc***, game over, I did the math for 4 and 6 cents and without any other risks associated (transport customs costs, any delays, or BTC price variation) it was a long ROI.

But one must consider Bitmain has troubles financially, they expanded based on the end of 2017 hype and now they are restructuring, Amsterdam and another place got closed down (like offices, if I remember correctly ), leadership reshuffled... Maybe this is just a new direction.

I do see what you mean with the selling techniques applied, it appears to be undercutting their own purchasers by always putting new ones with earlier delivery dates than the previous pre-orders. (I am newer her and got used to it)

But one matter you forgot to consider, their competition. With the company adapting to the 'new times' they need to make sure they catch as much as they can from the market pool, therefore, sell as much as they can.

Maybe bitcoin is meant to be mined only through own renewable energy (yes it costs money as well, but better than the alternative), or maybe some of us are better of by buying it at the till if nothing else can be done to mine.

I definitely do not see any of the manufacturers changing the way the are that much, so we must choose as it fits us right.

No matter what, time will tell if we chose good or bad.

NB. I support Bitmain due to the 2 power cords, effective communication and updates that I have experienced with them, unlike other manufacturers.
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October 13, 2019, 07:04:26 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 01:18:44 AM by frodocooper
 #7

OK...thanks for the posts...back to me, however...

Where is this 6c kWh everyone speaks of in order to mine? Again, best rates I've found digging into it and getting fees etc and shipping etc etc (without a tariff equipment in hand) is 8c kWh. Any legit action overseas or someplace that really is 6c kWh when all the calculations are done? Or as I suspected before I started this thread a myth?

Thanks

Brad

(Likely not a myth, likely, not available to small fry like me...alas, big miners day has gone...in the ASIC old folks home) Sad

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October 13, 2019, 07:24:37 PM
Last edit: October 13, 2019, 07:48:23 PM by wndsnb
 #8

The lowest I've seen recently for small quantities are all-in rates between 7c and 7.5c /kWh. If you want to host 50-100 miners, you can find rates between 5c and 6c.

For US-based people who want to buy new gear, I think the best deal right now is to import gear directly to a host in Canada.

I'm not endorsing any of these, but here are some options I've found:

For Canada, both of these are below 7.5c/kWh

http://www.cryptoboreas.com/
https://miningsky.com/

In the US

https://www.valuehash.com/
https://onwatt.io/


The only one listed above I've had experience with is Valuehash. I have had miners hosted with them for about 1.5 years without any issues.

I also saw an offer from https://miningstore.com for 5.9c/kWh with 50 miner minimum.
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October 13, 2019, 08:19:01 PM
 #9

Searing what are your options for Solar Panels? Hydro? Wind?

Anything is better nothing  Roll Eyes

I am naive to still believe it can be done (*cough, with a lot of sacrifices) at ones home, but it depends a lot on one's circumstances, ofc
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October 13, 2019, 09:18:58 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 01:22:03 AM by frodocooper
 #10

[...]

Not practical in the upper midwest (Minnesota). Xcel Utilities will only pay a maximum of OVER 10% of your average monthly use based on your past year. So if my average monthly use is $60 for last year, that would be $66 bucks. Any amount above that average made by solar panels goes into the meter and Xcel sells all excess from everyone over dumped by solar into the meter at spec electric prices..and make a killing. Also they currently claim that my electric rate is 8.79c kWh.

In reality after fees, last month's usage it was 17.29c per kWh. Maybe my winter rates may be 15c kWh. My current data hall rates for ONE S9i thru buddy (Maxumark) is 10c kWh. So, I did pressure Xcel and find out of a large rooftop flat dormer on the roof. I could split it. 2 panels. Say use 1kw a month out of 9kw a month for Xcel to a panel of my own. and that would leave 8kw for my own use. With Minnesota and Night and All ...say average I would have MAYBE 4kw average maybe I could draw upon? Maybe? That would be what maybe 2 s9i's or so underclocked?

The price, last I looked with solar rebates this year was 21K (from 29k) to put up the above mentioned 9k solar setup complete. But rebates are going away end of 2019. All I think? Also 30% tariff on Chinese Solar Panels (maybe on top of regular tariffs as well? could it really be 57.6% with fees). Beyond dorked we are on this idea.

This does not work on so many levels as more or less impossible to justify for my home electric use. Maybe with a hobby farm or something, but as it is it is a no-go in a big way. My brother however put up a 20kw setup 7 years ago the utilities had to grandfather him in..he makes $250 to $300 a month profit I think. None of this 10% limit crap. Amazing how once being an entrepreneur works dandy in 2012 or so now the big guys come along in 2019 and change the rules to be more centralized an't it? You can't make money as a utility if every homeowner can take a chance and overbuild by 1/3 and sell the electric back. Thus change the laws and keep the Ad's going on T.V. for your Xcel centralized wind and solar farms here in Minnesota along with Nuclear. Got to keep all the marbles, don't ya know. No profit in this decentralized approach if you are a utility. Sad

So no go. Indeed, by next year it will be a hell no, never can be done no-go, even if you use a lot more electric than I use. Regulation has killed this idea of using solar in this part of the country deader than dead. Sad

Anyone have a nice 6c kWh solar farm someplace I can sneak a few miners in, let me know. I still may only be breaking even at these prices and with the tariff but on hope and prayer for 2020 future of BTC/halving/prices...I might take that action. By my lonesome in Minnesota with above stuff going on...er not so much.

later

Brad



[...]

I sent them all a message. I will post on here what the actual real price is dividing your FULL KW and any monthly fees by the bill paid each month. And/or if they vary the bill each month vs their on spec electric costs on market. (Some data halls due such). We will see. But at 7.5c kWh, I'm assuming this is the same more or less game that I tried to find out last year. Which came out close to 10c kWh with shipping of units and setup costs per unit and the rest per monthly bill on a 6-month contract and/or 12-month contract complete. When you add it all up, it came to around 9.5c to 10c kWh. That is from those who actually would do the math for me legitimately. 1/2 just gave me the kWh and did not answer the rest of it in any manner I was satisfied with.

Hopefully, times have changed and I am surprised. Still, have the frigging 27.6% tariff with shipping to contend with on new equipment, that may kill this information I may get anyway. But I'm bored, so I sent them a quick note, to all of the above links you mention. We will see. (Did not bother with the 50 miner minimum one..that would be silly) Smiley

Brad

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October 14, 2019, 01:38:46 AM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 01:39:58 AM by frodocooper
 #11

I think right now is a pretty good time to be shopping for hosting. They are losing tons of S9s, and may be willing to make a deal to replace them.

Also, I believe you only have to pay 5% tax to import gear into Canada, and shipping is pretty much the same as to USA. The only issue is if you run into problems you're faced with either quickly finding another host in Canada or paying the 27.6% to get the gear shipped to you (on top of the 5% you already paid).
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October 14, 2019, 01:46:56 AM
 #12

I think right now is a pretty good time to be shopping for hosting. They are losing tons of S9s, and may be willing to make a deal to replace them.

Also, I believe you only have to pay 5% tax to import gear into Canada, and shipping is pretty much the same as to USA. The only issue is if you run into problems you're faced with either quickly finding another host in Canada or paying the 27.6% to get the gear shipped to you (on top of the 5% you already paid).

The 27.6% hold us all back in the USA.

I would love to host two s17s in Canada

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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October 14, 2019, 03:16:06 AM
Last edit: October 14, 2019, 04:17:59 AM by Biodom
Merited by frodocooper (3)
 #13

Say, If you ordered Bitmain miners shipped to one location, but now want them (same miners) to be shipped to ANOTHER location, can you change it (the destination address) on the order, or not?

EDIT: I see that Bitmain says-NOT.

BTW, I looked at the numbers and found that it is not possible to make more btc that you spent on these, tax or no tax.
For example: the 50 th machine cost $2650 shipped, which is 0.32 BTC
However, coinmarket cap projects just 0.35 produced (not profit) in a year and even these calculations are wrong.
why? Because we have halving in 7 mo or so, so last 5 mo of the year would be half (of production).
Therefore it is more like 0.21+0.075=0.285 btc maximum (produced) in a year.
0.285 is less than 0.32

...and this is BEFORE counting electricity, difficulty increase, tax, etc.

The only way is to count in dollars and hope for a dollar price increase.
if that happens, dollar profit might be possible.
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October 14, 2019, 12:18:33 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (2)
 #14

Two thoughts, whatever mine are worth..
That OP considers 10c a deserving electricity price to mine at gives me the feeling they've a lot more research to do, I mean that constructively not entirely dismissively!

That I am new myself (and couldnt even work out how to vote in the poll) but I think OP is very much correct that Bitmain is dirty tactics through and through. However the article is very strange, Jihan is no longer CEO for example, at least I thought that was the case? Also 5 nanometer just sounds like nonsense for now?
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October 14, 2019, 05:21:21 PM
 #15

Two thoughts, whatever mine are worth..
That OP considers 10c a deserving electricity price to mine at gives me the feeling they've a lot more research to do, I mean that constructively not entirely dismissively!

That I am new myself (and couldnt even work out how to vote in the poll) but I think OP is very much correct that Bitmain is dirty tactics through and through. However the article is very strange, Jihan is no longer CEO for example, at least I thought that was the case? Also 5 nanometer just sounds like nonsense for now?

10 cent power used to be the cutoff for mining.

It is now more like 6 cent power.

Bigger industrial units  at 3000+ watts drive mining into the go big or go home camp.

Or  mod an s-9 as a space heater in the winter point it at solo.ckpool and hope.

here is hoping:

http://solo.ckpool.org/users/146UJM5kgzLVUV23CXCf33KQKHckoX1gx3

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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October 14, 2019, 07:39:53 PM
Last edit: October 15, 2019, 12:36:12 AM by frodocooper
 #16

This is from the data hall MiningSky Ltd from BC Hydro in Canada.

Anyone want to translate the following data hall stuff below. Yes, this relates to Bitmain profitability, thus this as an aside, on this thread, thus I deem it legit.

https://app.bchydro.com/accounts-billing/rates-energy-use/electricity-rates/transmission_rate.html

From what I can tell it comes out to 9.5c kWh complete? Or is this Canadian $$$? or am I utterly off the mark?

Thanks. Befuddled on above.

Brad



See above on post on what you think about that for pricing.

But I've not found Any Data Hall, WITHOUT hidden costs, in which it comes out to less than 9.5c kWh. Seems folks are raising the electric prices as BTC value and Data Hall profits go down. So find someone with a 'clear' answer and miners will likely flock to their door.

Thus, my whining on here, every time I go to pull the trigger (or used to before the 27.6% tariff in the USA back before) on further research the data halls that claimed 6-7c kWh after fees/setup/etc were really 9-9.5c kWh...and I am from hearsay, hearing from others that the prices have gone up. I have one buddy who is grandfathered in at 8c kWh in Colorado (no new folk for a year at the place is full) that just had his bumped to 9.5c kWh. I guess utility electric company prices move onward and upward regardless of miner success. Anyway, find something on here. I'd settle for someone trustworthy in east Tim Buck Too...and a decent price with some decent safeguards...just not hearing anything.

Back to the main thrust, I suppose someone on Bitcointalk will find a 6c kWh data hall that would take small miner me. At that point, the 27.6% tariff rears its head and I would be despondent on finding such and having no logical way to mine there at Bitman or other prices anyway with the tariff. Perhaps I am better off ignorant and as you say thinking 10c kWh is the likely outcome as long as a tariff is around. I'd hate to be in the position to mine again only to find out the tariff alone killed my ASIC dreams! (so I addicted as an ASIC miner I was/am/is...so confused) Sad

later

Brad

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October 14, 2019, 08:16:24 PM
Last edit: October 15, 2019, 12:39:17 AM by frodocooper
 #17

Not sure that any of these big farms would be paying published rates. I'd guess they all most likely negotiate a rate.

I dug up a quote I got from Miningsky last month for 10 S17s. These prices are in USD. They said they had to charge me 5% tax, so after the tax it was 7.07c/kWh. Apparently it is possible to get that 5% back if you are not a Canadian resident, but I didn't look into that.

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October 14, 2019, 10:06:34 PM
Last edit: October 15, 2019, 12:38:53 AM by frodocooper
 #18

So it is 7.07c kWh and PLUS the monthly fee per miner?

Just double-checking.

Still confused. But somewhat closer.

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October 14, 2019, 10:20:00 PM
Last edit: October 15, 2019, 12:40:07 AM by frodocooper
 #19

No, 7.07c total including the 5% tax.

For the 2385W S17, it was 2.385kW * 720hours * $0.065 + $4.00 = $115.62 per month.  With the tax that's $121.40.

So $121.40/720hours/2.385kW = $0.0707/kWh

It was $10 setup fee per miner, and I believe there was a $10 fee to disconnect and pack up your miner if you don't renew. So if you only do 6 months, then the total would come out to 7.26c/kWh with the $10 setup, and $10 disconnect fees included.



Cryptoboreas is just $70CAD per kW per month, with no other fees. The current exchange rate is $0.7556 USD/CAD, so it comes out to $52.89 /kW/month.

So that is $52.89/720 hours = $0.0735USD/kWh
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October 16, 2019, 12:20:22 AM
Last edit: October 16, 2019, 03:21:14 AM by frodocooper
 #20

Cryptoboreas has GREAT service and reliability and the cheapest rates in North America...but ALL S9's are now mining at a loss.
My S9's have not even reached roi nearing their second birthday. they will be taken offline very soon.
They performed rather well actually out of 27 S9's with 81 boards I only had 8 boards and two controllers and 2 fans die on me...10% failure rate over 20 months.

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