[CHALLENGE] Who wants to be a millionaire ?

[Lanatsa]

Nice to see a thread with someone who knows he has a 99.9999999% chance of failing hehe (sorry if I miss out any 9s;) ).

You know,,, you could just do this on dice too, right? Instead of betting with fiat, bet with satoshi, maybe you will not be a millionaire but if you can win 100 BTC, you will essentially be a millionaire;)

It is not the same thing, Dice game is based on math and in a very long number of runs for reducing the variance to a value more near possible to Zero you will get the mathematical value of the game.
In betting is different since is not only math but the human factor is a fact.

Also, consider that 97% on dice will be always a 97% of winning while 97% on betting can be a for example with 100€ a 102€ or a 103€ of return depending on the bookmaker's odds.

This guy doesn't have an idea on how to differentiate the odds between a typical dice game and a sport betting one. He do just directly

make some conclusions basing into those basic principles that he do know.Ive seen that OP is doing pretty well but reaching 4 digit to 5 digit
capital would really be hard.1 loss then all of the hard work been done would be come to waste.So choosing up wisely everytime on making a bet.
Low odds doesn't mean 100% win.

[1715293221]

1715293221

[1715293221]

1715293221

[1715293221]

1715293221

[tyKiwanuka]

Would be nice if you could add your current balance so we can see how well you have done.
You must be on around $130+ now right?

I post the current balance always with every new bet You can see all the bets I have played so far in the first post, I edit regularly.

Now I'm thinking of doing the same too but using a small amount of Bitcoin only. Like 0.001 BTC and will play on basketball only like NBA or PBA .

Will be hard with only NBA and/or PBA. I actually think NBA is undoable, because a) the teams are not that far apart quality wise and b) one single game doesn’t count that much, when you have 80+ games per season. You must be ultra selective and will probably have to do that for years. Not a lot of people have that discipline and stamina.
I am not into PBA, but mens Basketball in general is not easy for “bankers”.
But anyway good luck if you give it a try.

Do you see value in something like 1.02 or 1.05 odds?

I do, yes. There can be value in any odds, 1,01, 1,30, 2,50, 1000. Problem with low odds is, that you just don’t win that much with a single bet, but value is value.
Back in the days there was a guy in a betting forum, that only played low odds (in fact he was actually trading, but you have to look for value as well, when trading) and he was pretty successful doing it. He once posted a screenshot of his winnings (all amounts in Euro):



He of course had a huge bank and the markets were pretty imperfect in those days, but it still shows, that it is possible to be successful with low odds. You can be successful with any kind of odds and sports, if you put in the work.

#11 l Basketball l GER1 l Ludwigsburg vs Hamburg l Ludwigsburg ML l 1,11 l 129,93 l Betsson

WON

Bank: 144,22 Euro
W-L: 11-0
Average odds: 1,03

#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair

Cambuur pretty spectacular home side this season, 5-0/3-2/5-1/4-0/5-1 have been their scores so far. Nijmegen managed to keep a clean sheet in their last league match at Jong AZ, lets see, if they can do it back to back. Even if they do, there is still the possibility that they themselves score to make this bet a winner.

[Haunebu]

Do you see value in something like 1.02 or 1.05 odds?

I do, yes. There can be value in any odds, 1,01, 1,30, 2,50, 1000. Problem with low odds is, that you just don’t win that much with a single bet, but value is value.

I understand your point and I never said that it is impossible to win by betting on odds like 1.01 in the short term or long term, but it is way more difficult and stressful when compared to betting on odds like 1.6 or higher.

I find it easier to bet on high odds and win more often when compared to betting on low odds. However, I wish you the best in your endeavor.

[tyKiwanuka]

#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair

LOST

Bank: 0,00 Euro
W-L: 11-1
Average odds: 1,03

Rather few goals in NED2 today everywhere. Will have to fine tune the bet selection and be probably back with another try soon.

Awaiting the shitstorm now

[Lanatsa]

#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair

LOST

Bank: 0,00 Euro
W-L: 11-1
Average odds: 1,03

Rather few goals in NED2 today everywhere. Will have to fine tune the bet selection and be probably back with another try soon.

Awaiting the shitstorm now

GG!

As I said earlier 1 loss then all of winnings been wiped out.11 wins straight is a good run though but its okay man since
this is just an experimental as you said.On next time, you should at least making some multiple selections of low odd bets
than having a single at least you do able to divide the risk and wont completely shut down with one loss.

[coinlocket$]

Just asking wasn't better to try to bet on something with only 2 outputs?

I mean, if you can find something where it can be only x or y instead of x or y or z that's should reduce the possibility of the crazy event during the game.

For example, on a Tennis match, you can never draw while on a football match (aka soccer for Americans) you can have 1 or X or 2 as results.

[tyKiwanuka]

Just asking wasn't better to try to bet on something with only 2 outputs?

I mean, if you can find something where it can be only x or y instead of x or y or z that's should reduce the possibility of the crazy event during the game.

For example, on a Tennis match, you can never draw while on a football match (aka soccer for Americans) you can have 1 or X or 2 as results.

Most of the bets had only 2 outcomes For the last lost bet, it's either 0-0 or not^^ And I played 1X and X2 in football, which only has 2 outcomes as well. Same for Volleyball and Basketball ML bets, they just play until there is a winner, there is no draw.

Individual sports are not good for low odds imo, because you are relying on just ONE athlete and every human being has a bad day every now and then - and there is the possibility of injury too. If Ronaldo has a bad day, the other players can still compensate it, not possible if you bet on an individual athlete. In tennis you could think about laying the underdog 3-0 in Grand Slams, as the bet is voided when there is a retirement. But that still doesn't protect you from a strong favourite having an absolute off-day.

[kworrom]

It was a good run! Nothing to be ashamed of. Will you try again? I guess the only other question is should the bank be 0.00 or -144.22?

It's interesting to look (in hindsight) how often Cambuur-Nijmegen seem to draw. In their last 14 matches against each other, more than half (57%) were draws. https://www.flashscore.com/match/Qkr4cIVJ/#h2h;overall Also, their last four matches between each other were all draws. In their last 5 games Cambuur have had 3 draws, two of them were 0-0.

Cambuur, being top of the table, probably have better defense than other teams. They've only let in 8 goals on the year. Their goals for/goals against is 30:8. Maybe if doing the lay 0-0 strategy it would be better on teams with high goals for/against like Jong Ajax (36:18) https://www.flashscore.com/match/Qkr4cIVJ/#standings;table;overall or identifying teams like this in other leagues that score while having a leaky defense. Or choosing leagues that appear to have the most goals to lay 0:0 https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_leagues_ordered_by_number_of_goals.php Netherlands average is pretty high though (Netherlands-Eredivisie-3.38 goals per game avg).

I think it would be interesting to try this strategy with a few other bet types

Heavy favorites in boxing or MMA, in situations where an easy fight is setup to show off a prospect
Betting against overtime occurring in the NBA/NFL
Betting on tennis heavy favorites to win set handicap of +1.5

[notblox1]

#12 l Football l NED2 l Cambuur vs Nijmegen l lay 0-0 (@26) l 1,04 l 144,22 l Betfair

LOST

Bank: 0,00 Euro
W-L: 11-1
Average odds: 1,03

Rather few goals in NED2 today everywhere. Will have to fine tune the bet selection and be probably back with another try soon.

Awaiting the shitstorm now

To be expected...sooner or later
That was nice run 11 wins, but so far from million. Imagine if it was on 111 or later.

Better tactics would be if you withdraw some profit at specific period, and bet on sports where there is no draw... like tennis

[tyKiwanuka]

Will you try again?

Probably yes, but will take a bit of a break. It's quite some fun doing it, but it's way harder to find suitable bets than one might think.

I guess the only other question is should the bank be 0.00 or -144.22?

It is and should be 0,00. At the start of this challenge the bank was 100,00. It grew to 144,22 and those 144,22 were lost with the last bet and now the bank is 0,00.

Cambuur, being top of the table, probably have better defense than other teams. They've only let in 8 goals on the year. Their goals for/goals against is 30:8. Maybe if doing the lay 0-0 strategy it would be better on teams with high goals for/against like Jong Ajax (36:18) https://www.flashscore.com/match/Qkr4cIVJ/#standings;table;overall or identifying teams like this in other leagues that score while having a leaky defense. Or choosing leagues that appear to have the most goals to lay 0:0 https://www.soccervista.com/soccer_leagues_ordered_by_number_of_goals.php Netherlands average is pretty high though (Netherlands-Eredivisie-3.38 goals per game avg).

I think it would be interesting to try this strategy with a few other bet types

Heavy favorites in boxing or MMA, in situations where an easy fight is setup to show off a prospect
Betting against overtime occurring in the NBA/NFL
Betting on tennis heavy favorites to win set handicap of +1.5

I wasn't able to watch the match of Cambuur, so can't really judge, if it was a boring match with few action or if it was just one of those days where nothing would go in and goal posts were like 2m wide Funny side note is, that I first thought about taking Grafschaap with lay 0-0 again as I previously did, but decided for Cambuur as they were scoring heavily at home so far. Grafschaap game ended 0-0 as well. All other NED2 games didn't finish 0-0 that day.

Boxing and MMA could work, but I am just not into these sports. From what I know, there is only fights in the weekends as well and that is too few. I wouldn't touch "no overtime" bets in NBA and for NFL those games that are very unlikely to go to overtime, the odds are just 1,01 and you need average odds of 1,02 for this challenge. You can get higher odds for "no overtime", but then the teams are quite balanced and for me personally this is too risky then.

Tennis could work, but season is basically over for now and the events in Shenzhen for womens and Paris for the mens only featured the best of the best, so no low odds.

The bets I still like most for this kind of challenge are found in Handball and Volleyball. Preferrably women teams at home.

and bet on sports where there is no draw... like tennis

Most bets only had 2 outcomes: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195331.msg52953525#msg52953525

[kworrom]

My mistake, you're right. I don't know why I'm confusing bank/profit.

It looks like there were a fairly low amount of shots/attempts for Cambuur-Nijmegen. Probably would have been painful to watch!


NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie last 50 matches
interesting to see cluster luck... how 0:0 score happens more than once on same day... wonder if weather or schedule or something?

All 0:0 matches in last 50:



01/11, 15:00
Cambuur - Nijmegen correct score market 0:0 betfair @15.00
01/11, 15:00
Graafschap - Excelsior correct score market 0:0 betfair @19.00
25/10, 14:00
G.A. Eagles - Den Bosch correct score market 0:0 betfair @15.00
18/10, 14:00
Maastricht - Excelsior correct score market 0:0 betfair @13.00
18/10, 14:00
Den Bosch - Roda correct score market 0:0 betfair @12.00
11/10, 14:45
Maastricht - Cambuur correct score market 0:0 betfair @15.00
04/10, 14:00
Graafschap - Almere City correct score market 0:0 betfair @17.00

If you risked 1 on 0:0 correct score at betfair last 50 matches in eerste divisie
risk....  50
won.... 15+19+15+13+12+15+17=106
profit... 56
roi.....  112%

If only it were that easy to look back and follow a trend. Doubt this will happen for the next 50 matches...
Interesting to see the odds movement on the 0:0 correct score odds... bet down quite a bit some cases... @12.00 really?

There's probably a better process to figure out if a team is more or less likely to go scoreless. I guess if you follow lineups closely, maybe top scorers could be out/injured/. It's cold there this time of year, but I'm not sure what impact the weather has on scoring, but I doubt it's simple to figure out. https://www.soccermetrics.net/league-competitions/temperature-vs-goals-study-premier-league

---
Pinnacle just put out a good article on predicting 0:0 draws:
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Soccer/inflating-or-deflating-the-chance-of-a-draw-in-soccer/CGE2JP2SDKV3A9R5