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Author Topic: Yet another analyst  (Read 2826 times)
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exstasie
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October 26, 2019, 03:35:29 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), MAbtc (10), marky89 (3), LFC_Bitcoin (2), hugeblack (2), Free1bitco.in (1), figmentofmyass (1), mk4 (1), ft73 (1)
 #1

Inspired by my old hero lucif, I'm starting a thread for my analysis. I'll be sharing primarily TA (Elliott Wave, candlesticks, patterns/harmonics, analysis of trends/momentum/volume and so on) with some limited analysis of fundamentals and market sentiment.

I welcome any and all feedback, alternative ideas, and criticism. The thread will be self-moderated to keep spam to a minimum.

So let's get to it: I believe we are on the cusp of continuing the long term bull market that began in December 2018. I've been waiting to share this EW count until seeing obvious signs of reversal, which we've now seen:



The 0.5-0.618 level is typical for a Wave 2 pullback and that's exactly where we bottomed.

At the daily time frame, we see a "bullish three outside up" pattern, otherwise known as a confirmed bullish engulfing. The day would need to close below $8,800 to nullify the pattern. We've broken above the 50-day and 200-day MAs so the pending death cross is likely to be nullified.

Volume appears to confirm bullishness as well. On the left, we see the low volume selloff below the $7,700+ trading range......see how there's no supply? On the right, we see today's explosive rally:



Let's zoom out to the weekly chart, which exhibits multiple confirming factors as well:



First, we see a very pronounced Wyckoff spring, also known as a false breakout. This is a classic signal marking the beginning of an uptrend, where a selloff below the trading range is quickly reversed.

Second, this week's candle is a clear bullish outside reversal. To nullify that signal, bears need to take price down below $8,420 in the next 45 hours.

Third, weekly Chande momentum hit oversold levels for the first time since last December and is now headed back towards the zero line.

Finally, for the first time since June, this downtrend line has been broken:


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October 26, 2019, 08:40:39 PM
 #2

Nice thread and always fun to read .... THX

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
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October 27, 2019, 12:22:22 AM
 #3

Quick update after the daily close:



Of note, yesterday was the highest volume day since the June top. That's a great sign for the bulls since volume usually confirms the primary trend.

We held above $8,800 so the "bullish three outside up" pattern mentioned in the OP has completed. That suggests continued upside to come, though we should probably expect some ranging after all that volatility the past two days.

The death cross confirmed but I'm not too worried about it. I think it'll be a false cross.

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October 29, 2019, 06:04:39 AM
 #4

Price action is looking constructive. Flagging in the $9,000s is exactly what bulls want to see. Holding above the 50% retrace level after such a massive move up suggests buyers are in control of the market.



xxxx123abcxxxx is speculating about a dip to the mid-$8,000s......that's possible in the short term. I suspect any such dip will be short-lived.

Cross-posting this with an updated chart:

The weekly candle closes in just 4 hours. Assuming it stays up here, it'll be a major bullish confirmation for me. Not only is it a bullish outside reversal, but it's a very clear example of what John Bollinger (inventor of Bollinger bands) calls a "headfake":



The bands are squeezing, so we're obviously coiling for a mid-term breakout. The market attempted to trigger a downside squeeze with that wick below the lower BB, but it was summarily rejected. That's the headfake.

Years of experience has taught me, it's very important to pay attention to where the market doesn't want to go. It clearly doesn't want to go down. And as I said, we're coiling for breakout. So chances are it'll be in the other direction. Wink

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October 29, 2019, 10:46:03 AM
 #5

Looking at that weekly chart from exstasie, I noticed there's a chance for upward "3 bar play" pattern. Last week was wide range igniting bar, current week should trade between roughly $8800 and $9600 and next week we can expect breakthrough towards 12000 or higher if price breaks the resistance at 9700.
I am not very experienced in TA so can someone confirm if this scenario would be considered as 3 bar play.

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October 29, 2019, 07:11:59 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #6

Looking at that weekly chart from exstasie, I noticed there's a chance for upward "3 bar play" pattern. Last week was wide range igniting bar, current week should trade between roughly $8800 and $9600 and next week we can expect breakthrough towards 12000 or higher if price breaks the resistance at 9700.
I am not very experienced in TA so can someone confirm if this scenario would be considered as 3 bar play.

I'm not familiar with that pattern, but it's a valid setup based on what I'm seeing.

Last week was the range expansion, the first bar. This week is the consolidation, the second bar. So if the range breaks upwards next week, that'll be the long entry according to the "3 bar play" idea.

If it plays out, I see weekly resistance at $11,500-$12,300.

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October 31, 2019, 05:40:33 PM
Merited by figmentofmyass (1)
 #7

Update on the 4-hour chart:



The last little headfake off the lower BB got bought back up into the range. The short term Chande hit oversold levels; indicators are recharging nicely. So the bulls are holding the range up quite well. $9K might just hold before the next move up.

If we do end up dipping from here, I'm looking for support at the daily 20-MA (the BB basis) in the mid-$8,000s:


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October 31, 2019, 08:47:21 PM
 #8

Observe the 50ma it's a good although lagging indicator of what market we're in at the moment. Now we are above it which is bullish but if we fall below 8800 it's going to be bearish. Again we could dip and return above it which would be a fakeout but if we stay below it for days it's going to look bad and create more sell volume.
We're getting near close to an important moment which is end of the pennant that we're currently in and an exit is going to happen within days.
For instance if it happens in 2 days we will need a move to around 9400 and not a wick but full candle and it will indicate a bullish breakout. If we go below 8900 it's going to be a bearish breakout. I guess we have 60% chance for a bullish breakout.
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October 31, 2019, 09:49:39 PM
 #9

I'm pretty firm on my believe that we won't see much of a price advancement until we close that CME gap. I expected it to happen earlier this week, but it seems that we're facing bulls ready to buy the lower $9000 area quickly. It's much better to trend a little down in the short term and close that gap than to do it somewhere in the forthcoming months, which sucks harder.

As long as we don't again close consecutive candles below the 200 daily moving average I'm confident that the market is ready to move forth.

Glad we're not far from closing a bullish monthly candle. Smiley
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November 01, 2019, 07:51:45 AM
 #10

Observe the 50ma it's a good although lagging indicator of what market we're in at the moment. Now we are above it which is bullish but if we fall below 8800 it's going to be bearish.

Falling below $8,800 may not be as bearish as you think. If my EW count is correct, we are currently in a minor Wave 2. A typical pullback would be in the 0.618 range, in this case the $8,500s. That's also where the 20-day MA will be in a day or two.

David (dmwardjr) is also looking at the mid-$8,000s as a possible bottoming area: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52925879#msg52925879

So don't get too bearish if we go below $8,800. You might end up selling the bottom. Tongue

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November 01, 2019, 08:02:00 AM
 #11

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).
Week-ends use to bring "unnatural" movements on the market. Also some countries are in banking holiday today. Any bet for what'll happen this week-end?

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November 01, 2019, 04:16:38 PM
 #12

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).
Week-ends use to bring "unnatural" movements on the market. Also some countries are in banking holiday today. Any bet for what'll happen this week-end?


Not that it's any correlation at all, but I wonder if today is particularly different now that you mentioned it.

I have my regular sell time now (get my "salary" in Bitcoin and it's pay-the-bills time) and typically it's also the time people get regular salaries and want to buy Bitcoin but it's been hours on LBC, top of the list for my country, and no bites. Zero.

Makes me wonder what's in store for the weekend too.

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November 01, 2019, 06:22:23 PM
 #13

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).

I actually sense a healthy amount of pessimism. Plenty of people are calling last week's move "just a short squeeze" and are still planning on buying in the $5,000s or $6,000s.

It's true that open shorts got chopped in half and aren't recovering (at least on Bitfinex) but the more important factor is the price action. The market isn't bleeding straight back down as usually happens in bear market short squeezes. Any dips into the $8,000s were quickly bought. We're flagging well above the 0.5 retrace level a week later. Bears are sweating, for good reason.

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November 02, 2019, 07:58:38 PM
 #14

Considering momentum on the monthly time frame, the best historical comparison we have for the June-November time period is November 2015-April 2016:



Two things to note here:

  • The last two times Chande Momentum hit overbought levels, we entered long term bull markets.
  • Unlike early 2014 and early 2018 (which marked the start of long term bear markets), the market is hovering at overbought levels rather than declining into the range. The current price action is much more similar to early 2016.

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November 03, 2019, 07:42:54 PM
 #15

I wanted to cross-post some ideas from some other threads. First, some commentary on Bitfinex commitment of traders and trapped bears:

Look at what happened to shorts (at the bottom, in red):



We can see that shorts increased by ~30% in the $7,000s and peaked at the bottom on October 24th. Then they were squeezed and short levels bottomed out on October 26th when price hit $10,500.

Also, consider all the price action in the red box. From September 24th to October 25th, the market ranged below $8,800. Considering that price is now in the $9,300s, all sellers/shorters in that range who didn't buy back lower are now sitting in loss.

We can also be fairly sure the vast majority of traders did not buy back lower. Why? Sentiment was deathly bearish in the $7,000s. Everyone expected at least $7K; most people expected $5K-$6K if not $3K. In hindsight, we can now see this was extreme bottom selling sentiment. Bears weren't buying back in the $7,000s and this is confirmed by looking at short levels.

The way we ripped through the $8,800 range high and haven't returned below again trapped a massive amount of bears. They are the fuel for the next move up.

And here are some thoughts on short term expectations:

The only thing I see here is a bull flag of sorts. Clear flag pole and sideways pullback above the 50% level:



A typical pullback would be to the 50%-61.8% range, the green box. However the pullback has been shallow and drawn out, suggesting this may be more of a sideways "time" correction than a "price" correction. I'm not sure we'll make it there.

Look to the left to see examples of failed short squeezes, and how quickly the gains were lost. It's quite a contrast to the current chart.

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November 04, 2019, 08:41:25 PM
 #16

The market appears to be breaking upwards from this short term triangle, and volume is confirming:



This could be the start of the move to $11,500-$12,300 discussed here.

Otherwise, we could just be carving out a longer trading range. These intraday triangle breakouts aren't always reliable.

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November 05, 2019, 08:54:59 AM
 #17

Fake-out! Yesterday's late day pump got fully retraced, and then some:



Brutal price action. It could be like Bulkowski says about these triangles:

Quote
Busted: Price sometimes breaks out in one direction and then reverses to bust out in a new direction. Trade the new direction for a powerful move.
http://thepatternsite.com/dt.html

Shorting season is already over for me, but I've got spot bids in the $8,500-$8,800 range. Maybe it's time they got filled?

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November 05, 2019, 09:59:51 AM
 #18

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).

I actually sense a healthy amount of pessimism. Plenty of people are calling last week's move "just a short squeeze" and are still planning on buying in the $5,000s or $6,000s.

It's true that open shorts got chopped in half and aren't recovering (at least on Bitfinex) but the more important factor is the price action. The market isn't bleeding straight back down as usually happens in bear market short squeezes. Any dips into the $8,000s were quickly bought. We're flagging well above the 0.5 retrace level a week later. Bears are sweating, for good reason.
If we dont see $6000 this November, we might likely not see it again this year. It is likely to dump by January but not as low to $6000 before another rally toward the halving month. if not for the china impoved regulation we could be around $6000 but since we have overcome that, I dont see the dump again. It is advisable to buy around $7000-$9000 if we saw it lower.


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November 05, 2019, 10:59:39 AM
 #19

I'm pretty firm on my believe that we won't see much of a price advancement until we close that CME gap.

At last, the CME gap has closed. The price of CME futures experienced a mini flash crash to $8360 to jump back above $9300 quickly.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME%3ABTC1!

https://cointelegraph.com/news/manipulation-cme-bitcoin-futures-flash-crash-to-fill-85k-gap

Whether it was an intentional fill or a fat finger (I'm leaning towards the first option), it's super bullish that we have that gap filled and can now move on building on a complete chart.
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November 05, 2019, 07:17:10 PM
Last edit: November 05, 2019, 08:01:27 PM by exstasie
 #20

I'm pretty firm on my believe that we won't see much of a price advancement until we close that CME gap.
At last, the CME gap has closed. The price of CME futures experienced a mini flash crash to $8360 to jump back above $9300 quickly.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME%3ABTC1!

https://cointelegraph.com/news/manipulation-cme-bitcoin-futures-flash-crash-to-fill-85k-gap

Whether it was an intentional fill or a fat finger (I'm leaning towards the first option), it's super bullish that we have that gap filled and can now move on building on a complete chart.

Given that spot markets stayed above $9,100 that was unexpected!

Really fishy price action looking at CME's 1-min chart. Almost all the volume came in above $9,100. The order book must have been pretty empty. In any case, all the stops got run so CME is ready for takeoff if the spot market says so.

I have a friend operating on the theory that institutions take positions on CME and then move the (illiquid) spot market. Naturally he's bullish.

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November 06, 2019, 10:39:24 PM
 #21

The short-term triangle everyone was watching turned out to be a dud. The Bitcoin market is so much choppier than it used to be. Every day it looks more like the stock market, the way it busts through important levels then runs the other way.

It looks like the daily is still building out this bull flag. My overall bias is bullish but it's difficult to rule out something like this:


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November 08, 2019, 05:45:41 PM
Merited by figmentofmyass (1)
 #22



I guess that suspicious low-volume CME gap fill wasn't enough to turn the market around. There's our shakeout:



It looks ugly right now, but we'll probably see wicking action in this mid-upper $8,000s range off the 50-day MA for a couple days. Then we should see a recovery.

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November 09, 2019, 05:19:32 PM
 #23



I guess that suspicious low-volume CME gap fill wasn't enough to turn the market around. There's our shakeout:

*snip*

It looks ugly right now, but we'll probably see wicking action in this mid-upper $8,000s range off the 50-day MA for a couple days. Then we should see a recovery.

Excellent prediction exstasie. How do you think are the chances that we break below 8000$ ?
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November 09, 2019, 06:12:01 PM
 #24

It looks ugly right now, but we'll probably see wicking action in this mid-upper $8,000s range off the 50-day MA for a couple days. Then we should see a recovery.

Excellent prediction exstasie. How do you think are the chances that we break below 8000$ ?

Unlikely, maybe a 10-15% chance if I had to put a number on it. I would be surprised if we made it below the $8,500 area. We still probably have a day or two left of downward pressure before the trend reverses but I don't think we're going much lower.

I think the market is in a similar position to October 24th.

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November 10, 2019, 06:07:18 PM
 #25



Here's an update on this idea:



The chart formed a fractal of the October 23-25 price action. In other words, another "spring." Bears broke down the weekly pivot low but the market firmly rejected the new trading range. This illustrates that the path of least resistance is up.

Not sure we'll be taking off right away but I do believe now that $8,660 is the lowest we'll see.

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November 10, 2019, 11:39:41 PM
 #26

I noticed some comments that Google trends data for "Bitcoin" was bearish. Let's have a look: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2019-03-01%202019-11-10&q=bitcoin



I can see what they're saying. All the gains from this year's rally are gone. However I'm not sure this translates well into price action.

I've been saying for a while that this year's bull run and subsequent correction mirror the one from October 2015-April 2016. Let's have a look at Google trends data from that time period: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2015-10-15%202016-04-15&q=bitcoin



Notice any similarities?

It was in May 2016 that the market confirmed continuation of the 2016-2017 bull market. So while Google trends may look bearish when only considering the trend since this past June, things really don't look that bad.

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November 10, 2019, 11:58:39 PM
 #27

I noticed some comments that Google trends data for "Bitcoin" was bearish. Let's have a look: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2019-03-01%202019-11-10&q=bitcoin

*snip*

I can see what they're saying. All the gains from this year's rally are gone. However I'm not sure this translates well into price action.

I've been saying for a while that this year's bull run and subsequent correction mirror the one from November 2015-April 2016. Let's have a look at Google trends data from that time period: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2015-10-15%202016-04-15&q=bitcoin

*snip*

Notice any similarities?

It was in May 2016 that the market confirmed continuation of the 2016-2017 bull market. So while Google trends may look bearish when only considering the trend since this past June, things really don't look that bad.

Isn't that mostly the case? Do the opposite of what the majority does Smiley Thank you for giving a rough percentage for your prediction, looks that you were right.

I was always a big fan of Morecoin Freeman's simple prediction of using the 20 week MA line. He didn't update for a long time anymore in his thread( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1024633.340 ) but according to his idea the MA20 might work as resistance here:



What do you think ?
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November 11, 2019, 02:13:07 AM
 #28

I was always a big fan of Morecoin Freeman's simple prediction of using the 20 week MA line. He didn't update for a long time anymore in his thread( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1024633.340 ) but according to his idea the MA20 might work as resistance here:



What do you think ?

The 20-week MA is definitely acting as resistance. We wicked right through it and are consolidating below. I don't think bouncing off it is a bearish sign though; it's just a pullback.

Breaking back above the 20-week MA will be confirmation of a new mid-term uptrend, just like back in March.

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November 11, 2019, 11:13:01 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)
 #29

I'm surprised by the failed spring today. This doesn't happen too often. All of yesterday's gains were reversed, and then some. Bummer!

We're still trading around the original buy zone, yet to wick through the 50-day MA or reach oversold levels on the Chande indicator. Maybe we'll go for oversold and/or take a stab at that 0.618 level:



I'm still bullish mid-term, though seeing a failure like this is jolting. As I've said before, it's important to pay attention to where the market doesn't want to go, and we've just had a strong signal it doesn't want to go up.

Maybe it was only a short term whipsaw, but this is a good time to stay on your toes and on the sidelines rather than piling into a position (especially a leveraged one).

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November 14, 2019, 12:15:08 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)
 #30

Right now the 6h PSAR flipped to bullish, and 12h PSAR could flip to bullish in about 3 - 4 days, just by going sideways.
If that will happen, and 12h MACD will flip to bullish too (which seems quite possible), then a mini-rally to about 12k$ will become possible.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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November 14, 2019, 04:10:33 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)
 #31

@exstasie your way of seeing the market is very interesting, it is nice to see your vision, I would like to share my vision through my analysis:



1.-I like to analyze the market under the theory of Wyckoff, according to Wyckoff we are already in the upward trend phase, these movements are normal before starting maybe the test at the price levels that it is currently, to eliminate offer and start to go up testing offer at high levels.

2.- I have seen some kind of coincidence in terms of indicators, in this case the MA (28) and MA (14), where MA (14) Staying above MA (28) is likely not to lower the price much. (this 1D analysis)

3.- I agree with you in this medium-term trend, I don't know much about the indicators, but I will find the good point here where I indicated you.

4.-Given that there is daily news worldwide, countries with inflationary crises, I think that the demand for Bitcoin affected, therefore to Demand> supply, the price goes up.

I think that we are in a bullish scenario, but that equal caution should be taken, due to people's emotions, many times the market moves in the opposite direction to those that most give, although many technical analysts claim that the market will be bassist, I hope and the opposite happens.
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November 20, 2019, 11:26:05 AM
 #32

don't be effect by short term . the current bear market to end soon . there is no other chart . i am sure that prices of bitcoin can reach another high price more than of 2018 before halving always. prices to recover next month or by december
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November 27, 2019, 06:32:49 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)
 #33

Buyers followed through on this bullish reaction. We've got ourselves a nice inverted H&S on the 4-hour chart:



I wouldn't get too excited yet though. We've got lots of horizontal and volume resistance in the upper $7,000s and low $8,000s now. Once this mini-rally peters out, we should get a sharp dip back down which will hopefully be a higher low and the start of a recovery.

Holding the $7,300s as support on a pullback would be a major bullish signal.

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November 30, 2019, 06:27:35 PM
 #34

Piggybacking on xxxx123abcxxxx's potentially completed wave 2 count, I'm toying with the idea that we're looking at a leading diagonal pattern:



As Bulkowski points out:
Quote
The leading diagonal usually occurs as part of wave one of impulses or wave A of zigzags.

So from an EW perspective, this could be the start of an impulsive bullish wave that resumes the early 2019 bull market.

Short term, a pullback to the 0.382-0.618 area would be expected. This idea would obviously be invalidated by new lows beyond $6,515 (Bitstamp).

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December 04, 2019, 06:46:15 PM
 #35

Piggybacking on xxxx123abcxxxx's potentially completed wave 2 count, I'm toying with the idea that we're looking at a leading diagonal pattern:



Short term, a pullback to the 0.382-0.618 area would be expected.

This leading diagonal idea is still alive. We need to see further Wave 3-type action to confirm, but it's looking good so far:



That's a nice little spring off the $7,000s on strong hourly volume. All the bears bragging about their shorts the last few days just started sweating! Let's see what the honey badger has in store......

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December 04, 2019, 09:18:50 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #36

Someone really didn't like the taste of that pump this morning. They just market sold ~1,300 BTC on Coinbase Pro over 3 minutes. Granted, there were a few stops that triggered too, but obviously lots of coins market sold into an empty book.



The bad news is the chart is now showing a fractal similar to November 10-11th, which preceded a crash. I will say though, in my experience fractals rarely play out the same in succession like this, so I'm curious to see what happens next:


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December 09, 2019, 09:15:36 PM
 #37

These high volume wicks into lower highs are a bearish sign. Every attempt to break out is being quickly squashed:



Signs are beginning to point to an incoming long squeeze too. Shorts on Bitfinex keep declining into each upward spike, down nearly 30% over the past several days. Longs on the other hand are mooning.


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December 09, 2019, 09:46:20 PM
 #38

Damn don't let loose the bear  Roll Eyes


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December 10, 2019, 03:48:00 PM
 #39



Urgh, the long to short ratio is truly disgusting...
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December 10, 2019, 09:16:59 PM
 #40



Urgh, the long to short ratio is truly disgusting...

Yeah it's pretty ridiculous. Granted, I've been trolled by long/short data before, and Bitfinex is not the whole market. It does fit with the bearish price action though. Lots of outstanding longs are pressuring the market down and there are no shorts providing support.

In terms of historical cycles and mean reversion theory, I do think the market is already reaching oversold levels and that we'll be trading much higher in 2020. Short term though, a revisit to the $6,000s or even a short-lived spike to the $5,000s looks possible.

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December 18, 2019, 10:56:18 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)
 #41

After a shakeout to lower lows, the market has another opportunity for reversal:



As I've said in the past, we need to pay attention to where the market doesn't want to go. Triggering a daily Bollinger Band squeeze (range expansion) typically entails a new trend. In the case of the breakdown 2 days ago, a downtrend. A headfake (failed breakout where price quickly returns inside the bands) often occurs before a violent move in the opposite direction.

There are multiple other bullish factors here. The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is hard to deny. Momentum/RSI divergence is also present and now confirmed. There's now a good chance for a W-bottom/double bottom.

I will update with a new mid-term EW count once the chart is more clear.

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December 31, 2019, 09:06:22 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #42

Still waiting for more clarity. The weekly chart still shows massive bullish potential, but the daily still shows lots of weakness. OBV is still on the floor and bulls failed to reach the H&S neckline here, painting all lower highs:



Despite the slow bleeding look to the chart, experience has taught me not to be overly confident in the bears in these situations. Especially with sentiment so abysmal and the halving right around the corner.

Still, I need to see more evidence to say the market has truly bottomed out. We need to break above the downtrend line from the $13,800s (currently in the $8,600s) and the October pivot high ($10,300s) before getting too excited.

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January 03, 2020, 07:11:33 AM
 #43

Very nice spring on the 4-hour chart, on good volume:



There is a bullish engulfing forming on the daily too. That dip to $6,850 may have been a higher low before bullish continuation.

Looking for a break above $7,700 here. That will signal a move to $8,500-$8,700 to test the 20-week MA and the downtrend line mentioned in the last post. You can do it, bulls!

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January 03, 2020, 11:00:26 AM
 #44

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214437.0

Please do share another analyse ^ Cheesy

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January 03, 2020, 12:46:58 PM
 #45

Very nice spring on the 4-hour chart, on good volume:

*snip*

There is a bullish engulfing forming on the daily too. That dip to $6,850 may have been a higher low before bullish continuation.

Looking for a break above $7,700 here. That will signal a move to $8,500-$8,700 to test the 20-week MA and the downtrend line mentioned in the last post. You can do it, bulls!

It is about time that we revisit the upper band of the descending channel. Would line up very well with your 20-week MA resistance.
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January 03, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), El duderino_ (3)
 #46



I'm loving the look of this chart so far. Given the price action of the past two months, I'd have expected it to wick down hard by now. Instead, this looks like impulsive bullish form and perhaps even a running flat correction. Momentum is recharging nicely even on higher lows.

Running flats in Wave 2 pullbacks often signal that buyers are chasing the market up. This is only an hourly chart so I don't want to build expectations too much, but this is honestly the most bullish price action I've seen in months. This is what charts look like before they explode to the upside.

Conservatively, a break of $7,700 would target the $8,500 area mentioned above. If we really are in a new impulsive uptrend like I'm pondering, then we might shoot right to $9K+ and then consolidate around/above the broken downtrend line. Support becomes resistance and all that.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214437.0

Please do share another analyse ^ Cheesy

Will do! I'm glad I have until the 10th because the next few days are crucial. Let's see if this setup plays out. Smiley

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January 04, 2020, 12:46:27 AM
 #47

If this action would really set up some crucial moves... then the thread opening was of good timing Cheesy

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January 04, 2020, 05:19:19 PM
 #48

Hope your box-range isn't gone by when your TA played out : Undecided

If so please post full thought on the time frame etc

cheers

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January 04, 2020, 06:55:11 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #49

Hope your box-range isn't gone by when your TA played out : Undecided

If so please post full thought on the time frame etc

cheers

Haha, no worries! If it were a "highest price before x date" game I would probably stake my guess ASAP. Guessing the exact price on an exact date is harder to pinpoint. Much more chance involved so I'm not too worried about the exact box. It's all in good fun!



There's one of them nasty wicks. Undecided

We're still in a sideways range, no bleeding yet. But definitely not the look I was hoping for this weekend. Are we in for more painful chop? That's what the December-March bottom was like last year. Seemingly endless slow painful chop, and so when the market had finally bottomed, everyone was in disbelief......

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January 04, 2020, 11:26:01 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #50

Traders I watch are waiting with bated breath to see if we break out here. The market is near a big decision point.
https://twitter.com/drei4u/status/1213563106602799105
https://twitter.com/btcbite/status/1213573575854170114

Nice intraday recovery from that failure candle earlier:



The way that buyers aren't allowing follow through on dips is bullish. We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

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January 05, 2020, 01:56:55 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #51

*snip*
We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

So $7.8k is the level to watch ? I'm more convinced if we break out of the channel at >9k. Until then it is still a good trading range for scalping, imho.
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January 05, 2020, 07:52:00 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), El duderino_ (1)
 #52

*snip*
We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.
So $7.8k is the level to watch ? I'm more convinced if we break out of the channel at >9k. Until then it is still a good trading range for scalping, imho.

I'm talking short term. The last couple months looks like an accumulation range but we obviously haven't broken the long term downtrend yet. So I'm looking for baby steps here.

The daily upper Bollinger Band = $7,600. Monthly pivots around $7,700 and $7,800. Clearing those resistances should trigger a lot of buys.

The top of the descending channel (on Bitstamp) is around $8,700 and dropping. The weekly 20-MA is in the $8,500s. So I figure that's the first resistance zone to expect. It would be reasonable to take some profit there and re-assess.

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January 06, 2020, 10:50:33 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #53

The way that buyers aren't allowing follow through on dips is bullish. We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

Here it comes.....



I love the way bulls are pushing into the daily close here. It's almost sure to trigger a Bollinger Band squeeze now. "New Money Monday" in full effect!

Breaking $7,800 = all higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. So I expect a last minute dump attempt from bears to prevent that, but buyers have been absorbing every dump so far. Looking good!

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January 06, 2020, 11:19:31 PM
 #54

The way that buyers aren't allowing follow through on dips is bullish. We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

Here it comes.....



I love the way bulls are pushing into the daily close here. It's almost sure to trigger a Bollinger Band squeeze now. "New Money Monday" in full effect!

Breaking $7,800 = all higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. So I expect a last minute dump attempt from bears to prevent that, but buyers have been absorbing every dump so far. Looking good!
Do you think Bitcoin will go higher in the next 1-2 Year ? I watched the TA from @sgbett and he is saying Bitcoin will drop. I want to buy again because the last time I buyed it was $3K.Do you think it's a good time to buy again or should i wait ?
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January 07, 2020, 04:07:47 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #55

It's looking very strong now. I was expecting us to go somewhere between 8.3 and 5.5k after breaking 7.7 resistance, but the buyers got tired and slowed down right at 8k, which isn't an important level. What are your thoughts? Are we going to hold here or go back to 7.5k?

It's also interesting how this bullish move took 3 consecutive pumps to develop, with the next always bigger than the previous one.
Since January 5 we had a bullish pressure starting at night (CET), with the big candles forming at 2 am (Jan 5), 3 am (Jan 6) and 11 pm (Jan 7).
Why did these moves happen at around the same time 3 days straight?
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January 07, 2020, 07:42:06 AM
Merited by darkangel11 (1), El duderino_ (1)
 #56

Do you think Bitcoin will go higher in the next 1-2 Year ? I watched the TA from @sgbett and he is saying Bitcoin will drop. I want to buy again because the last time I buyed it was $3K.Do you think it's a good time to buy again or should i wait ?

I think sgbett is misapplying the 2014-2015 fractal, trying to force it on the current chart despite all the divergences. In my opinion, the mid-$6,000s last month were probably the lowest we'll see.

It's looking very strong now. I was expecting us to go somewhere between 8.3 and 5.5k after breaking 7.7 resistance, but the buyers got tired and slowed down right at 8k, which isn't an important level. What are your thoughts? Are we going to hold here or go back to 7.5k?

I don't see any signs of weakness yet. I think $8K is just a local intraday top, not the end of this run.

Slow and steady wins the race. The market is building support as it moves up rather than shooting its wad in a fast short squeeze. That bodes well for a healthy new uptrend.

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January 07, 2020, 10:45:08 AM
Merited by exstasie (1), El duderino_ (1)
 #57

Just stumbled on this, nice points.

Personally i'm looking at Chaikin money Flow as historically it used to give a decent BUY signal on weekly TF when breaking out its dynamic resistance after painting a pocket under zero, e.g.



Yet Bitcoin is now close to a very delicate area: top of range and  just below weekly MA20 (red).





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January 07, 2020, 11:39:54 AM
 #58

Just stumbled on this, nice points.

Personally i'm looking at Chaikin money Flow as historically it used to give a decent BUY signal on weekly TF when breaking out its dynamic resistance after painting a pocket under zero, e.g.



Yet Bitcoin is now close to a very delicate area: top of range and  just below weekly MA20 (red).






There is a decent Buy signal ? If you look at the Chart there is a EMA10/50 Bearish Cross. This is not a good signal or not ? The last time we had an Bearish Cross was at June 2019 and the Price just moved a litte bit Up and then we fall down
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January 07, 2020, 01:59:50 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #59

There is a decent Buy signal ? If you look at the Chart there is a EMA10/50 Bearish Cross. This is not a good signal or not ? The last time we had an Bearish Cross was at June 2019 and the Price just moved a litte bit Up and then we fall down

Sorry mate, i do respect your opinion, but you're making quite a bit of confusion here.

About the buy signal, that's referred to the first chart ( Chaikin Money flow ).
You can cross-check candlestick chart to see the past outcome.

About the second chart ( candlestick chart ): no EMAs nor any EMA10 are painted there.
These are simple, not exponential moving averages.

What you actually see in the chart are weekly MA20 (red), MA50 (blue), MA100 (green) and MA200 (brown).
Both MA200 and MA50 are rising, MA100 seems about to flatten. Only MA20 is clearly falling.

Speaking of what you define a  "EMA10/50 Bearish Cross", that's actually a MA50/MA100 "bullish" crossover ( i hate the terms "death" or "golden", but theoretically it would be the latter ).

Last time we got this kind of "bullish" weekly crossover was not on June 2019, but rather in May 2016, almost 4 years ago ( marked below with a black up arrow ).
Basically it marked the inception of the latter bull run, which saw price stabilizing over MA20 (red).

I think the simple chart below is pretty self explanatory:



Basically -so far- price is making sort of a rhyme with 2015/2016.

The whole point is nowadays MA50/100 crossover was a bit on the weak side and MA20 is still over price, so it's now acting as resistance.
This latter fact is what i thought worth reporting in my previous message.

For now i can't call this scenario bearish, will wait for test of resistance in order to make further considerations.
All in all i think that here VOLUME ( or LACK of ) will be the key.




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January 07, 2020, 07:49:36 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #60

Yet Bitcoin is now close to a very delicate area: top of range and  just below weekly MA20 (red).



Yep, I'm looking at that descending channel line and 20-week MA as a potential local top. Bears will probably try to make a stand there. The way we're slowly curving into a parabolic shape on the 4-hour (on solid volume) makes me think we might just bust through towards $10K. More likely, we'll need to consolidate off that resistance and build support first. That will also allow the market to retain impulsive form, which is bullish for continuation after a pullback. Here's one idea in that vein:



4-hour OBV is showing some balls for the first time in a long time, which is nice to see. This local count is progressing nicely. I'm still looking for a push towards $8,500+, perhaps after another intraday consolidation:



For now i can't call this scenario bearish, will wait for test of resistance in order to make further considerations.
All in all i think that here VOLUME ( or LACK of ) will be the key.

Yes, we need to break through that descending channel with authority before making big plans for a new bull market. Smiley

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January 08, 2020, 08:44:56 AM
Merited by figmentofmyass (1), El duderino_ (1)
 #61

The bulls are back in town! Cool

The weekly candle is beautiful. Daily BB squeeze triggered and confirmed. If the daily candle closes in the mid/upper $8,300s (or higher) we'll have a three white soldiers pattern on the chart:



This high volume wicking might indicate temporary exhaustion. OBV looks super bullish though. I don't think bulls are done quite yet but there could be some consolidation in the cards:



Wave (iii) in this potential count has extended well past the 1.618 extension of (i) so it's highly likely this move is impulsive. Which means after another short term consolidation there should be more upside. Here's a squiggle, just an idea:



I think we're building towards this scenario. We've tagged the 20-week MA. Still looking for a test of this downtrend channel:


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January 08, 2020, 10:37:44 AM
 #62

Yes, we need to break through that descending channel with authority before making big plans for a new bull market. Smiley

Exactly.
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January 08, 2020, 10:53:41 AM
 #63

I have a feeling this thread is gonna suck some merit out of me  Cheesy

Nice and solid posting...

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January 09, 2020, 11:15:31 PM
Merited by figmentofmyass (1)
 #64

This high volume wicking might indicate temporary exhaustion. OBV looks super bullish though. I don't think bulls are done quite yet but there could be some consolidation in the cards:



Well, we certainly got some consolidation out of that.

I'm unsure about the internal count as yet and the price action is weaker than I'd hoped. Strongly bouncing off the 0.382 would have made a better case for my local count. My bias is still bullish, but further dipping below the January 7th range ($7,723 low) will throw this count into question:



If bulls can break up from here, there is a boatload of reasons why they might get rejected in that red zone above:

  • 1.618 extension of (i) ~ $8,600
  • Descending channel top ~ $8,650
  • Daily/weekly pivots in the $8,700s and $8,800s
  • 1.618 extension of the December rally ~ $8,900

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January 09, 2020, 11:52:37 PM
 #65

Curious how its gonna play out  Smiley

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January 10, 2020, 02:07:41 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (4)
 #66



So that's my take for the halving season this year. Run up to 16300-17300 and then some consolidation phase maybe down to $12k before or shortly after the halving(green vertical line). First I was a little skeptical that there is not enough time to rise to that level, but after copy pasting the fractal from the $4k-$13k run-up(not even the whole fractal), it is actually not a problem.
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January 10, 2020, 08:33:12 AM
 #67

Longs have been selling into strength for the past month, down 26% in total. That's a bullish mid-term sign. I'd like to see them flushed out even more:


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January 10, 2020, 11:43:35 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3), LFC_Bitcoin (1), figmentofmyass (1)
 #68



This count is still holding on:



Given the structure and our position in the descending channel, we're at a very crucial point in the charts. A possible inflection point. I want to show how the above count might fit into the bigger picture.

This is the bullish impulse scenario. Price action is unlikely to play out exactly like this; the point is a valid 5-wave impulse that breaks the June-January downtrend:



The alternative scenario implies the rally since December 18th is not an impulse at all. We do not have sufficient evidence to rule this out yet:



Wave 3s typically extend to the 1.618 of Wave 1, if not further. So a higher high near/past the $8,900 level will make the bearish scenario above much less likely. That's the first baby step we want to see from here for the bull scenario to keep progressing.

In other news, the market continues to shed longs: down to 32,500 BTC on Bitfinex. That's down almost 32% from the peak last month. Bullish.

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January 11, 2020, 07:35:45 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), LFC_Bitcoin (1)
 #69

Altcoins are starting to look frothy. BTC continues to consolidate below its January 8th high, but Monero, Litecoin, DASH and others have all expanded their ranges with new highs today. 10%+ breakouts everywhere you look. Monero is up a whopping 45% on the year so far!

This is another bullish mid-term sign for BTC. It signifies BTC supply is being diverted to altcoins. During BTC pullbacks, instead of selling BTC for fiat (pressuring price down), traders are selling their BTC for altcoins.

This is exactly what I would expect to see in the early stages of a bull market. Smiley

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January 13, 2020, 11:04:37 PM
 #70

This count is still holding on:


Time to retire that local count. It's not playing out. We're clearly not in a new minor impulse yet and time rules for Wave 4 have been broken.

This is not necessarily a bad thing for bulls. The market is consolidating bullishly above the 20-day MA, coming off daily and 4-hour uptrends. Daily candlesticks show no follow through to the downside. Based on classical metrics continuation is still likely, and after this length of consolidation, a move straight towards $10K like David is contemplating becomes more likely.

The short term is unpredictable though. I'm thinking we may still be in an irregular minor Wave 2, similar to the first teal scenario xxxx123abcxxxx has laid out here:



Longs on Bitfinex are down to almost 30K. They've dropped 36% in the past few weeks. Less longs = less downward pressure on price and more latent demand.

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January 14, 2020, 06:55:20 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), MAbtc (3), ssmc2 (1), bitserve (1)
 #71

Bulls on parade! Smiley

First breach of this long term downtrend line:



Loving the intraday price action: testing resistance and forming support every step of the way. So much stronger than the October short squeeze! As I've been saying since the $7,000s this is the strongest price action we've seen in several months. Every day that goes by, the $6,000s bottom looks more and more confirmed.

There is still resistance here; the levels mentioned in this post are still in play for the moment. Let's get a daily close above that downtrend line and continue closing up these downside wicks on the 4-hour before dancing in the streets.

The higher degree extended third count mentioned above is progressing nicely. This is a tad ambitious; it's the "ideal" bullish scenario. Still, the proportions and extension guidelines for Wave 3 look good:



Until we break the $10,350 Bitstamp / $10,540 Coinbase high, the chart is still all lower highs. I believe bears will make a strong stand near $10K, should we get that far. That will give the market an opportunity to test the 20-week MA and possibly the broken downtrend channel as support.

In commitment of trader news: Shorts on Bitfinex are up 63% overnight. Bears are shorting the rocket right now. More fuel for $10K?

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January 15, 2020, 12:27:17 AM
 #72

I like your analysis. Pretty clear and to the point comments. Easy to understand. Congrats!

19VBmRQVqrtNTGiwngZutwREagcKxJgVZM
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January 15, 2020, 12:43:31 AM
 #73

#thedudeapprovesABIDES

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January 16, 2020, 12:18:45 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), NeuroticFish (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), TravelMug (1)
 #74

The intraday price action and volume shows there is a lot of resistance in this upper $8,000s range. Fortunately, the market is holding up quite well. It looks like the selling is being absorbed. 4-hour OBV is incredibly bullish; I haven't seen performance like this since April-May 2019!

Here's a squiggle of possible price action as we continue to build out the primary EW count from the last post:



To keep this count on track, we want to see a test of the orange 200-day MA ~ $9,100 and continued consolidation above the wave (i) high at $8,463. This sets up a situation where we could test the $10K+ area, and then come down to confirm the green 20-week and/or orange 200-day MAs as support.

A break below $8,463 will invalidate this count and send us back to the drawing board.

Longs are closing and shorts are opening into every spike, which supports the idea of bullish continuation:


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January 17, 2020, 07:58:36 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #75


To keep this count on track, we want to see a test of the orange 200-day MA ~ $9,100 and continued consolidation above the wave (i) high at $8,463. This sets up a situation where we could test the $10K+ area, and then come down to confirm the green 20-week and/or orange 200-day MAs as support.

To be honest, this is not quite the follow through I had hoped for. The market pushed a higher high past $9K but it was with fairly weak momentum, falling short of the 200-day MA:



I am unsure whether this local wave up is sub-dividing (in which case we are still on track) or if this is the beginning of a larger failure. Absent more evidence, I am still leaning towards the former.

We definitely prefer a push to the $9,300-$9,500 area, to give us more cushion above the 20-week MA and $8,463 local high. We want to keep bears trapped below those key levels to keep building up buy pressure.

4-hour OBV is plateauing and Bitfinex shorts dropped on last night's upside breakout, two signs the market might be hitting a wall short term. To keep 4-hour momentum alive, bulls want to see another attack on the highs as we head into the daily close.

This condition is still in play:
Quote
A break below $8,463 will invalidate this count and send us back to the drawing board.

Go bulls!

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January 17, 2020, 10:56:27 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #76

This post explores the idea of wave alternation, AKA "why this bull cycle doesn't look like the last one." I think it's worth cross-posting here:

I have an alternate theory. It's based on this idea in Elliott Wave Theory called the "guideline of alternation":
Quote
The guideline of alternation states that if wave two of an impulse is a sharp retracement, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa.

Sharp corrections never include a new price extreme, i.e., one that lies beyond the orthodox end of the preceding impulse wave. They are almost always zigzag (single, double or triple); occasionally they are double threes that begin with a zigzag. Sideways corrections include flats, triangles, and double and triple corrections.

Let's apply this idea to both the 2015-2017 bull market and the current one:



Working from left to right:

Last cycle's primary (ii) was a long sideways correction. Without going into details, I would term it a "double sideways correction" (for more info, see the section on "double and triple threes"). It did not reach the 50% retracement level and it took very long (5 months) compared to the primary wave (iv), which was a short-lived zig zag.

These distinctions become much more obvious when we switch to linear view:



Applying this idea to the current cycle: I would characterize the primary (ii) as a zig zag. Combined with the deep retracement of nearly 70%, I would definitely consider this to be a "sharp retracement." Thus, after a sufficient wave (iii) (which should surpass the 2017 ATH by a good margin) I expect wave (iv) to be a long, sideways correction.

In other words, I don't think the long term cycles are necessarily changing, becoming smaller in magnitude, accelerating, etc. I believe the corrections are just playing out differently (in alternated order) than they did during the 2015-2017 bull market. To me, nothing has really changed yet.

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January 18, 2020, 10:24:08 PM
 #77

Well, it's another bull pennant until proven otherwise. Not much else to say:



Not sure how this fits into our local count but.....stair stepping is usually indicative of a strong trend. In this case, a bullish one. I'm still looking for a thrust above the 200-day MA which is currently at $9,056.

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January 19, 2020, 11:27:27 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #78

Well, it's another bull pennant until proven otherwise. Not much else to say:



I'm still looking for a thrust above the 200-day MA which is currently at $9,056.

There's the expected thrust above the 200-day MA!

.....followed by an abrupt failure. This is the trouble with triangles. The thrust is powerful but often very short-lived:



We may have just seen the first extreme of a larger sideways consolidation. As long as we are trading above the January 8th high ($8,463 Bitstamp) then this count is still in play, which puts us in Wave (iv) of 3:



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January 19, 2020, 02:59:41 PM
 #79

This abrupt failure is just a single whale shorting bitcoin and manipulating the price.
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January 20, 2020, 06:46:59 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #80

This abrupt failure is just a single whale shorting bitcoin and manipulating the price.

There's a more rational explanation. Longs were piling on for days heading into the last breakout. There were big expectations for a rally above the 200-day MA. When that rally never materialized, supply came back in and longs began to unwind. Then stops were triggered.

This is all normal price action, bouncing off expected resistance. The 200-day MA was obviously going to be sold. The question was/is whether it would be just a temporary, local top.

The vast majority of sell volume occurred below $8,600 so "the manipulators" (if they exist) will only make money if price actually downtrends from here. If bulls can hold onto this range and eventually return to the highs, the market will just have trapped more bears.



That's how whales get harpooned:

Yes, but the mistake people make is assuming whales are always successful when they try to push the market around like that. I've seen many whales attempt large spot dumps that were instantly swallowed by the market before a move up. Those whales lost a shitload of coins. Some of them likely ceased to be whales altogether because of it.

Consider the Bitstamp bear whale. He dumped 30,000 BTC at $300 when the rest of the market was trading ~$50 higher. The market bought all his BTC then rallied to $450. He returned in 2017 as a bull, signing messages to prove it. So he dumped everything at $300 and bought back during the 2017 bubble.

He's not the only whale to make mistakes like that. They are not infallible!

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January 20, 2020, 02:27:17 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #81

There's a more rational explanation. Longs were piling on for days heading into the last breakout. There were big expectations for a rally above the 200-day MA. When that rally never materialized, supply came back in and longs began to unwind. Then stops were triggered.

This is all normal price action, bouncing off expected resistance. The 200-day MA was obviously going to be sold. The question was/is whether it would be just a temporary, local top.

For the rational-minded like me (who have at best a weak grasp of economic logic and a keen sense of nonsense TA) 9k was always going to be the selloff point. Who among speculators would want to ignore a quick chance at 15% profits (from those who bought in below 8k)?

And the fact that this slip only went as far as 8.6 will be good news for all them profit takers since it only means another repeat of 9k is possible and not too far away.

That sustained stay above the 200MA though!

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January 20, 2020, 07:00:07 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #82

That sustained stay above the 200MA though!

Can't wait! Breaking above the 200-day MA and then testing/holding it as support will be an epic reversal sign.

All in due time though. We saw what happens when the market breaks out too quickly. The October run to the $10,300s flew above the 200-day MA but since we never built up any support on the way up, the chart ended up an Eiffel Tower anyway. Traders call this phenomenon "too far, too fast."

This slow and steady stair stepping price action where bears sell every resistance and bulls buy every consolidation is much healthier.

I like to see things in terms of baby steps. As an example, for months bear analysts have been clinging to the 20-week MA (now hovering ~$8,300) as a bearish indicator. "As long as the market is below the 20MA, we're still in a downtrend." Well, the market just closed its first weekly candle above it! Another baby step complete!

Next, we set our sights on the 200-day. Smiley

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January 21, 2020, 07:27:27 PM
Merited by NeuroticFish (1)
 #83

Annoying price action. My buddy's characterization might be best: "WTF is this shit?" Cheesy



Classical TA would probably consider this a variant of bear flag, some kind of bearish consolidation. Trend-sideways-continuation is the expected progression.

On the other hand, it's taking so long to drop (and OBV is looking healthy enough) that it begins to look like an accumulation range where bulls are absorbing supply and bears are not following through on the January 19th dump.

It's definitely not a bearish H&S formation and it doesn't look like a typical bear flag. It looks like a shakeout to me.

For now, I still maintain:
  • This dump doesn't look like it has legs.
  • Continuing to trade above $8,463 (Bitstamp) is bullish.

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January 22, 2020, 11:23:36 AM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #84

^
Thx for the nice updates, wanna merit but max = 50  in 30 days ....  Undecided

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January 22, 2020, 10:26:41 PM
 #85

Chop city continues. Roll Eyes

We have a sign of strength, a potential double bottom printed on the daily chart off $8,465. The rally to $8,775 looks impulsive which is a good sign for bulls. Returning back to the previous 4-day mode in the mid-$8,600s is normal, but it's pretty crucial this area holds as support now and we resume an upward slope:



Otherwise it'll be a decent sign that the market doesn't want to move up.

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January 22, 2020, 11:06:49 PM
 #86

Chop city continues. Roll Eyes

We have a sign of strength, a potential double bottom printed on the daily chart off $8,465. The rally to $8,775 looks impulsive which is a good sign for bulls. Returning back to the previous 4-day mode in the mid-$8,600s is normal, but it's pretty crucial this area holds as support now and we resume an upward slope:



Otherwise it'll be a decent sign that the market doesn't want to move up.
I hope so. Many have become bearish and are already talking about 5K-6K. What do you think ? Is the bottom in or not ?
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January 23, 2020, 10:49:42 AM
 #87

Returning back to the previous 4-day mode in the mid-$8,600s is normal, but it's pretty crucial this area holds as support now and we resume an upward slope:



Otherwise it'll be a decent sign that the market doesn't want to move up.

Well, the $8,600s faltered. It didn't take long for the market to make new lows after that. Undecided

If the daily wicks up and closes > $8,463 then my bullish count is still alive. Closing in the $8,300s or lower will kill it for good. We've got 13 hours until the candle closes.

It's possible the market confirms the broken long term downtrend channel and/or 20-day MA as support:



Based on Tim West's TAM model, the daily just made a downward range expansion candle. A spring back above the daily high (~$8,670) would indicate a bullish reversal and would be a reasonable long entry.

I want to wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours before saying much else.

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January 23, 2020, 01:33:59 PM
 #88



Based on Tim West's TAM model, the daily just made a downward range expansion candle. A spring back above the daily high (~$8,670) would indicate a bullish reversal and would be a reasonable long entry.

I want to wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours before saying much else.

I don't want to go back again to that doomed channel...   
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January 23, 2020, 07:29:42 PM
 #89

Well, MA20/W is running at about 8270$.
It's also middle of weekly BB.

Let's see.
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January 23, 2020, 08:19:31 PM
 #90

I'm about ready to chuck that local EW count in the trash. It was always a bit too ambitious, aiming for the 2.618 extension. I have an alternative in mind which I'll post sometime after the daily close.

Many have become bearish and are already talking about 5K-6K. What do you think ? Is the bottom in or not ?

I believe the bottom is already in. Here's a look at where I think we are in the larger cycle:



I don't want to go back again to that doomed channel...   

Me neither. I figured we might go back to test the upper channel line as support, but was hoping we could keep stair stepping up instead, as that would be more reliable bull market behavior.

We don't want to fall back into the channel for long, that's for sure. That would indicate failure to break the downtrend. A wick on the weekly chart or even one candle close below the channel top might be okay, but beyond that..... Lips sealed

Well, MA20/W is running at about 8270$.
It's also middle of weekly BB.

Let's see.

Yes, we have the 20-week MA, 20-day MA, and broken channel top all in this same area. The market may find support here for that reason.

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January 25, 2020, 11:46:02 AM
 #91

Updated primary count:



I don't like the internal (lower degree) count, but I think the overall wave proportions really support this idea. The deep pullback in Wave 2 and the > 1.618 extension in Wave 3 definitely looks like impulsive behavior to me. This is the general idea:



The 20-day MA doesn't seem to be providing support. I consider bears to be in control until the market breaks back above ~$8,670, the top of that failure candle two days ago. Looking at daily Chande levels and considering the overall structure, I would expect a few more days of consolidation in this general area.

We prefer to hold $8,000+ and ideally at/above the 0.382 to maintain good impulsive channel form. A sustained drop back into that yellow channel will suggest we are actually in a larger correction, in which case I offer xxxx123abcxxxx's alternative:


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January 27, 2020, 12:20:46 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #92

Nice bullish engulfing on the daily chart! We broke above this downtrend line and 20-MA resistance:



This overlap into the previous range shows the market is not in a new impulsive downtrend. It also supports my belief that we are in a temporary sideways consolidation.

I'm not totally convinced this Wave 4 is complete yet (there could be more sideways chop or a tag of the 0.382 before any notable move up) but the short term price action looks promising for bullish continuation past last week's high:


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January 27, 2020, 11:45:58 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #93

Another test of the 200-day MA! Almost time to break above it for good? I think so:



See how the market wicked below the downtrend line but strongly recovered? This is a textbook example of how "resistance becomes support":



Fellow analyst dragonvslinux points out a similar bullish dynamic based on volume support in his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221059.0

It really looks like Wave 5 is now commencing. Here's what a typical impulse might look like, with final targets in the $9,900-$10,350 range:



Bitcoin may be anything but typical, but I still have a hard time believing we can break through the $10K area without a significant pullback.

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January 29, 2020, 08:17:27 PM
 #94

Buyers are looking really strong. All stair stepping, no pullbacks allowed so far. The 200-day MA was broken with a pretty authoritative candle close, a major long term victory for bulls:



You can also see a confirmed three white soldiers pattern, which is a very bullish candlestick formation. More on that:

Quote
Three white soldiers is a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend in a pricing chart. The pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that open within the previous candle's real body and a close that exceeds the previous candle's high.

The three white soldiers candlestick pattern suggests a strong change in market sentiment in terms of the stock, commodity or pair making up the price action on the chart. When a candle is closing with small or no shadows, it suggests that the bulls have managed to keep the price at the top of the range for the session. Basically, the bulls take over the rally all session and close near the high of the day for three consecutive sessions.

A typical example:


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January 30, 2020, 09:15:51 PM
 #95

Our Wave 5 is developing nicely. Quickly recovered wicks like this indicate lots of panic buying and very strong bullish momentum:



I do want to stress some caution here, though. Like David, I am expecting a pullback off the $10K+ area. I suspect bears will attempt a selloff from below the October 2019 pivot ($10,540 Coinbase or $10,350 Bitstamp) since it's such an important technical level.



We've already met all minimum expectations for this wave, so it's time to start thinking about profit taking.

Although this wave could further subdivide (like that crazy (v) of 3 that went from $7,667 to $9,188) I am conservatively planning to close longs in the $10K area. This does not mean you should necessarily enter shorts. Wink Just a profit taking level.

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January 31, 2020, 10:12:44 AM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #96

Our Wave 5 is developing nicely. Quickly recovered wicks like this indicate lots of panic buying and very strong bullish momentum:

https://i.imgur.com/ekdraqK.png

I do want to stress some caution here, though. Like David, I am expecting a pullback off the $10K+ area. I suspect bears will attempt a selloff from below the October 2019 pivot ($10,540 Coinbase or $10,350 Bitstamp) since it's such an important technical level.

https://i.imgur.com/lutU0sF.png

We've already met all minimum expectations for this wave, so it's time to start thinking about profit taking.

Although this wave could further subdivide (like that crazy (v) of 3 that went from $7,667 to $9,188) I am conservatively planning to close longs in the $10K area. This does not mean you should necessarily enter shorts. Wink Just a profit taking level.

I also wait a pullback in the 10k area. The question is how big do you think will be. I think it could be just a small one and going fast to 10500-10600 or a moderate one to 9k-9,2k or 8,8k at much. There are a fucking lot of buying orders at 9,2 and 9, and in case going lower which I doubt, 8,8k is very strong again.

An strong pullback to like 8k or so seems very unlikely to me.

And for me an strong one would be a good thing because I just receive some money I can invest and could make a better entry. But I don't think I will be able to buy lower than 9075, where I currently have the order ready. In fact I think I should maybe put it higher.
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January 31, 2020, 11:27:30 AM
 #97



The Fear & Greed index is finally registering "greed" for the first time in a long time. Bitfinex longs are also up almost 18% over the last week. As a contrarian, this supports my feeling that we're nearing a local top.

I also wait a pullback in the 10k area. The question is how big do you think will be. I think it could be just a small one and going fast to 10500-10600 or a moderate one to 9k-9,2k or 8,8k at much. There are a fucking lot of buying orders at 9,2 and 9, and in case going lower which I doubt, 8,8k is very strong again.

An strong pullback to like 8k or so seems very unlikely to me.

$8K would just be a 50% pullback from here. Very normal in the early stages of a bull market. Look at the corrections in June-August 2016, January 2017, March 2017. These were deep 62%+ retracements of the previous wave. And that was in the throws of a bull market, so it wouldn't be out of the ordinary.

I think the low $8,000s where the 20-week MA is may end up being a great target zone. This is one scenario I'm preparing for:



A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep.

This is just one idea. You may be right. The pullback may just go sideways and we may get no lower than the upper $8,000s.

It's just too early to say; we need to see how the price action unfolds. If we see strong impulsive downside off the top, then a deep zig-zag shaped pullback to the lower $8,000s or upper $7,000s becomes more likely.

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February 01, 2020, 11:27:44 AM
 #98

Hey exstasie, read your reply on David's page.  Sorry, didn't realize you had your own.  I'm going to try to post the image from trading view.

[img][https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBTC/tcWPrQFK-Current-wave-analysis-of-GBTC/img]

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February 01, 2020, 06:57:28 PM
 #99

Hey exstasie, read your reply on David's page.  Sorry, didn't realize you had your own.  I'm going to try to post the image from trading view.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBTC/tcWPrQFK-Current-wave-analysis-of-GBTC

Thanks. That lines up with my thoughts from yesterday. Do you see that structure as a wedge, or a triangle? Do you have a higher degree count that shows how it fits into the bigger picture?

I'm not sure I like the idea of giving GBTC precedence. So much less price data, so many gaps......it seems like spot charts should give us a more accurate picture. I still think the structure works best as a sub-dividing impulse:



One thing is for sure: we don't want to rule out this scenario, especially just a few months before the halving. BTC and LTC have consistently rallied into past halving events.

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February 02, 2020, 05:23:32 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #100

Thanks. That lines up with my thoughts from yesterday. Do you see that structure as a wedge, or a triangle? Do you have a higher degree count that shows how it fits into the bigger picture?

You and I are off by one degree, with your count probably more correct, as I think we just started a supercycle 1 wave (SC1/P1/I1/M1/m1... using your minor wave 1).  I'm using the BTC / GBTC IPO as the start of SC 0 Primary B wave (B ending in 2017), the way a lot of Elliotticians use the start of an IPO as a continuation trend like in Facebook (wave 2).  I counted the wave last year as major 1 primarily because of the time it took (about 5 months Feb to July 2019), I like your interpretation better.  I tend to look at that cycle as a Diagonal (M1/m1) / Triangle (M2/m2), primarily because of the length of time in correction tends to negate the impulse.  Why am I doing it this way?  Because GBTC and BTC disagree on the SC 0 low, with BTC in 2018 and GBTC in Feb 2019.  Why is this significant?  Primarily because with BTC I can interpret your i as an a your ii as a b, but your v as a c and your minor 2 as a d with us entering another diagonal five wave sequence to finish m1/M1 as an e (or a 5 wave impulse, if the subsequent correction stays above 7340 BTCUSD.  I hope you can see the relationship between potential b and potential d with respect to the a / c designation.

Why do I use GBTC?  It's simple, the Elliott wave works best with a time and price Fibonacci ratio.  Time Fibonacci is relatively hard to define in a 24/7 market.  You can use a 1 hour, 12 hour, 1 day and possibly 3w (=21 days) to align your parameters.  The stock market is perfect Fibonacci time, with 30m (13 candles in one day), 4 hour (2 per day), 1 day, 1 week (5 days) and 1 month (21 days).  Any one of these can be used to align a chart to compare price movement to time with both variables taking Fibonacci values.  So, if a wave is a true impulse in the stock market, the time relationship for a correction is very easy to forecast with a small margin of error.  You simply add the two longest times of consecutive decline in the rising wave and move them up one degree and you can more or less guess what the subsequent low date will be.  Best example, an impulse with five falling days will predict a correction of 8 days.  If the correction exceeds the predicted number of days, then the rising wave was NOT an impulse.  This type of precision eludes me in 24/7 markets.  Looking at the 12h BTC  chart, I believe the time since 1/2 is looking like an impulse right now.  Time will tell.
On GBTC, if the wave pans out the predicted rise is to 16.73 which is equivalent to BTC 15573 right now, assuming Grayscale doesn't do another BTC buy between now and the completion.  The time frame is one month!  We'll see, right.  Sorry about the length of the post, but I'm trying to answer your questions with reasonable presentation.  Again, I believe that last February, GBTC entered m OR M1 of I1 of P1 of SC1.  Good luck with your trading.
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February 03, 2020, 09:57:56 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #101

I'm using the BTC / GBTC IPO as the start of SC 0 Primary B wave (B ending in 2017), the way a lot of Elliotticians use the start of an IPO as a continuation trend like in Facebook (wave 2).

Ah, this is probably the point at issue. I'm having trouble digging up my historic BTC count (going back to 2010) at the moment, but I think this gets the idea across:



Like xxxx123abcxxxx, I believe we are still in a bullish super cycle going back to 2010. Where we disagree is the potential magnitude of historic Wave 5. The proportions of intermediate (i) and (ii) (from the December 2018 low) suggest to me potential for much more upside.

Why do I use GBTC?  It's simple, the Elliott wave works best with a time and price Fibonacci ratio.  Time Fibonacci is relatively hard to define in a 24/7 market.  You can use a 1 hour, 12 hour, 1 day and possibly 3w (=21 days) to align your parameters.  The stock market is perfect Fibonacci time, with 30m (13 candles in one day), 4 hour (2 per day), 1 day, 1 week (5 days) and 1 month (21 days).  Any one of these can be used to align a chart to compare price movement to time with both variables taking Fibonacci values.  So, if a wave is a true impulse in the stock market, the time relationship for a correction is very easy to forecast with a small margin of error.  You simply add the two longest times of consecutive decline in the rising wave and move them up one degree and you can more or less guess what the subsequent low date will be.  Best example, an impulse with five falling days will predict a correction of 8 days.  If the correction exceeds the predicted number of days, then the rising wave was NOT an impulse.  This type of precision eludes me in 24/7 markets.

That's interesting. I've always had trouble applying Fibonacci time to BTC.

Good luck with your trading.

You as well! Cheers.

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February 03, 2020, 09:24:12 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #102

The wave count I shared here might be complete. That nasty wick above $9,600 looks like one of those "price doesn't want to go up" moments. Although we technically made a new high, the 4-hour (and higher) candle closes look like a fifth wave failure:



I moved stops up on part of my long position during yesterday's move. They were triggered. Awaiting more evidence that we are giving way to downward pressure similar to the late December ($7,700 to $6,850) or late January ($9,200 to $8,200) corrections. 3 hours until the close, the daily candle looks like a bearish gravestone doji off horizontal resistance:


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February 04, 2020, 09:42:14 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #103

The daily printed that bearish gravestone doji.

A look at the Godmode oscillator shows some bearish signs too. Bearish divergence following caution dots + bearish signal/LSMA cross + energy likely crossing below the 50% = possible dump coming soon:



Look to the left (green arrows) for inverse (bullish) examples.

The weekly/monthly bull trends are still quite strong. I don't see that changing. I'm looking to the $8,800s area as the first line of support. That's the 200-day MA and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the $6,425-$9,615 rally.

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February 04, 2020, 01:49:31 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #104

Resistance at those highs is normal, it can surpass it if theres enough demand and theres probably two bands to previous volume and any larger orders to be expected in that area.     But yea I'm really looking for some profit taking to occur on the last rise, thats the normal thing to happen.   We rise, we sell and eventually people spot even the low is bullish because its established somewhat higher in comparison over time so then we rise again.     9250 is the foothold BTC price needs to be pushing higher from, on this 4hr bar right now; ignoring volume or whatever time of day is most significant.

Quote
bullish super cycle going back to 2010

Was 2010 reliable pricing, its hard to put it into a cycle if BTC wasnt fully monetised.  I think post Mt.Gox we became more real and regular.   It felt like a gigantic loss from high to low at that time, turns out it was for the best.   Is that part of a cycle thats natural and relates now.
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exstasie
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February 04, 2020, 09:11:44 PM
 #105

Quote
bullish super cycle going back to 2010
Was 2010 reliable pricing, its hard to put it into a cycle if BTC wasnt fully monetised.

I agree that we can't refer to Laszlo Hanyecz buying pizza as reliable pricing.

Mt. Gox data is different. I consider it the first reliably liquid medium for price discovery. That's why it's included in the Bitcoin Liquid Index going back to July 2010, and also why my historic count begins there.

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February 05, 2020, 08:58:14 PM
 #106



Bears made it down to $9K but not the 200-day MA. Swept half my stops and went on to new highs, typical! Tongue

I am contemplating whether these new highs are part of an irregular/expanding correction, like so:



This would line up perfectly with a test of the 200-day MA, which I expect bulls to confirm as support at some point.

I'm still in "caution mode" because I feel that $9,600-$10.5K is a very high resistance zone and we're seeing a lot of volume exchanged at these levels. I'm still planning to close the rest of my longs in the near future.

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February 06, 2020, 08:05:02 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), figmentofmyass (1)
 #107

I am contemplating whether these new highs are part of an irregular/expanding correction, like so:



This would line up perfectly with a test of the 200-day MA, which I expect bulls to confirm as support at some point.

Expanding on this idea a bit, here's what an expanding flat correction might look like:



I've noticed sentiment is really bearish. Everyone keeps trying to "short the top" so it's no surprise the market keeps punishing shorters and incrementally climbing higher.

Based on sentiment and short term price action, I'm still hoping for a spike near/through $10K to fill my asks. Moving manual trailing stop based on 4-hour pivots to ~ $9,500.

It's been fun longing this trend since the low $7,000s but I really want to see a more prolonged sideways correction or pullback before leveraging long again.

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February 07, 2020, 10:13:52 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)
 #108

I'm thrilled to see ETH going into beast mode. As the #1 altcoin, I think it speaks volumes about sentiment in the altcoin markets, which have the potential to suck huge amounts of BTC supply off BTC/fiat exchanges. This in turn can help drive BTC into its next bubble cycle.

Probably hitting expected resistance here, but this is a very bullish structure:



Potentially, there is a ridiculously bullish count on the monthly chart. I don't want to share it yet because it'll make me look like a bulltard. But let me just say this: ETH's stagnation over the past couple years actually positions it perfectly for huge gains in the next bubble. On top of that, the hype and economic incentives that proof-of-stake brings will create huge accumulation potential.

Anyway, back to Bitcoin. I'm unsure if we're seeing distribution, or consolidation before ripping through $10K. I'm still leaning towards a pullback. Bitmex perpetual swap rates have been consistently 0.025-0.04% the last couple days, indicating traders are heavily long.

The market is following my squiggle from the other day. Let's see if it continues to:


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