Yet another analyst

[tokeweed]

^  34k is holding so far.  There were two strong bounces when it dropped to that level, a tad below that level...

So much for that eh?



Impressive bear momentum and sell volume. Sub-$30K still on the table after all. Have those knife catching bids ready! Bear bias remains until the market breaks and holds above that $34-35K battle zone.

Lol.  Yup...  Sucks.  And it seems like it’s consolidating right now for another run or getting ready for another sell down.  I guess it’s one of those things when nobody knows where the market is going and what it’s gonna do.  It’s better to be in the side lines...  But for degens, alt season looks like it’s happening tho.

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[exstasie]

^  34k is holding so far.  There were two strong bounces when it dropped to that level, a tad below that level...

So much for that eh?

Lol.  Yup...  Sucks.  And it seems like it’s consolidating right now for another run or getting ready for another sell down.  I guess it’s one of those things when nobody knows where the market is going and what it’s gonna do.  It’s better to be in the side lines...  But for degens, alt season looks like it’s happening tho.

It's a very tense situation indeed!

I'll note that two analysts I highly respect are incredibly bearish on BTC right now. Both Masterluc and dmwardjr are eyeing the $20-22K area for a bottom! A 50% correction would be significantly harsher than the 30-40% correction I'd been expecting. I'm tempted to play the contrarian, but they're also making me question my bias that the upper $20Ks are the ultimate low.

Current daily alarming signals - Masterluc

Here's a look at the Weekly Time Frame:

I do see this bearish possibility, Wave C as an ending diagonal:



As I've said in the past though, I believe a bull market correction in this position would be limited to 42% maximum. This channel seems to imply the same. It's tough to see much lower than $25K.

A 50% crash would imply a mid-term (like summer 2013), if not long term bear market.

The ETHBTC breakout ~ 0.0405 was tested as support and is comfortably holding intraday. That makes me think, if BTCUSD has not bottomed out yet, that we may be looking at a January 2017 situation: BTC down, ETH up. Given the epic nature of that multi-year inverse H&S breakout on ETHBTC, I guess it makes sense.

[exstasie]

We have liftoff. The ETHBTC breakout has been confirmed by a weekly candle close:



There might be an intraday spike down to retest the neckline, depending on what BTCUSD does, but I wouldn't bank on it. There is way more upside than downside on the menu.

I'm not sure if BTC will build out a bottom and just stagnate behind ETH, or if it'll actually drop to sub-$30K again. Eagerly awaiting some more information.

[tokeweed]

^  Do you have any news or any idea of what’s going on?  I was seeing alts trending up with some hitting new highs then a sudden sell down on all of them across the board..  A lot of them are in the red rn.  Like the market got spooked with something.

[exstasie]

^  Do you have any news or any idea of what’s going on?  I was seeing alts trending up with some hitting new highs then a sudden sell down on all of them across the board..  A lot of them are in the red rn.  Like the market got spooked with something.

Certainly did. It's just crypto markets being crypto markets.

ETHUSD went to new ATHs before selling off. From a Wyckoff perspective, the 2 failures above $1,400 looks like a big distribution. However, my personal take is we're seeing a compressed move like BTCUSD in January-March 2017. Basically, a running flat before the next real leg up.

ETHBTC tested its neckline and seems to be holding. I still have faith in that weekly breakout. If BTC gets really bearish, all bets are off though.

[tokeweed]

^  What do you think about this...  Looks bad imo.  You think the players are going to capitulate and BTC starts going into a minor down trend for a couple of months or so?

Edit:  Maybe even a...  *clears throat* ..  another bear market??

[exstasie]

^  What do you think about this...  Looks bad imo.  You think the players are going to capitulate and BTC starts going into a minor down trend for a couple of months or so?

Bears really came in on the 12-hour and daily charts. Very nice judas swing!

Unfortunately, this correction is not "simple" in EW terms. Unpredictable, which is why I've been saying for a while that the correction will continue (definitely no new highs) but that I'm really unsure of the downside potential.

There are two basic outcomes in EW terms. A complex triple sideways structure = we keep meandering sideways and building out an accumulation bottom. A triple zig zag, on the other hand, is our capitulation scenario to the $25-27K zone:



This would also build out a bullish falling wedge pattern, or bullish three-drive, depending on your school of thought.

I strongly prefer the capitulation scenario because it will create a much more predictable structure and also a high reward trade setup. But we'll see.

[exstasie]

The stock market just saw its ugliest daily candle since the September-October correction last year. This is the first time the market has held in the negative BB zone on the daily chart since that time too:



If this materializes into a sizeable selloff, the negative sentiment and "flight to safety" dynamic might add the additional pressure needed to push BTC into that capitulation scenario.

The weekly BTCUSD chart looks exactly like the March 2017 correction. Just need one more lower low and it's a perfect fractal.....

[CookieFactory]

IMO it'll be early Feb when the breakout happens, perhaps catalyzed by the CNY. I say this without irony 

[exstasie]

Strong hands bought that dip:



Rejection at the daily lower BB, and a bullish engulfing of the dump to $29K. Very impressive.

The second half of this correction has been quite the troll. I'm hesitant to call it over until the $35K zone is taken with authority, but it's beginning to look bullish again. Bears have a limited window of opportunity to turn things around.

[tokeweed]

^  Yo...  I guess we’re going to the moon after all.  That shooting star on the monthly got fixed over night.  Rofl.  I never expected it with only a couple of days left for the month.  

[exstasie]

^  Yo...  I guess we’re going to the moon after all.  That shooting star on the monthly got fixed over night.  Rofl.  I never expected it with only a couple of days left for the month.  

Trolled again. That's a high volume gravestone-ish doji:



Some insane market buyers tried to force a breakout but it didn't take. The gains were fully retraced. Until I see some obvious signs otherwise, I'm with xxxx123abcxxxx on this one: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5300627.msg56218703#msg56218703

[tokeweed]

^  As long as it stays and doesn’t fall below this somewhat neutral range..  I don’t care if it doesn’t go up beyond that.  And it’s what we really need for alts to catch up and for alt season to start.  BTC being in range and mostly sideways.

[CookieFactory]

Timing is as expected although the catalyst was not exactly the one I imagined. I have a feeling 45k will be a minor speed bump and we'll be challenging 50K in the near future (1-2 weeks).

[CookieFactory]

Forgot to mention, I appreciate the work and consistency put into this analysis thread as it's been a great resource in putting past price movements in context, interpreting current dynamics, and greatly influenced my future projections. Keep up the good work!