Yet another analyst

[exstasie]

Inspired by my old hero lucif, I'm starting a thread for my analysis. I'll be sharing primarily TA (Elliott Wave, candlesticks, patterns/harmonics, analysis of trends/momentum/volume and so on) with some limited analysis of fundamentals and market sentiment.

I welcome any and all feedback, alternative ideas, and criticism. The thread will be self-moderated to keep spam to a minimum.

So let's get to it: I believe we are on the cusp of continuing the long term bull market that began in December 2018. I've been waiting to share this EW count until seeing obvious signs of reversal, which we've now seen:



The 0.5-0.618 level is typical for a Wave 2 pullback and that's exactly where we bottomed.

At the daily time frame, we see a "bullish three outside up" pattern, otherwise known as a confirmed bullish engulfing. The day would need to close below $8,800 to nullify the pattern. We've broken above the 50-day and 200-day MAs so the pending death cross is likely to be nullified.

Volume appears to confirm bullishness as well. On the left, we see the low volume selloff below the $7,700+ trading range......see how there's no supply? On the right, we see today's explosive rally:



Let's zoom out to the weekly chart, which exhibits multiple confirming factors as well:



First, we see a very pronounced Wyckoff spring, also known as a false breakout. This is a classic signal marking the beginning of an uptrend, where a selloff below the trading range is quickly reversed.

Second, this week's candle is a clear bullish outside reversal. To nullify that signal, bears need to take price down below $8,420 in the next 45 hours.

Third, weekly Chande momentum hit oversold levels for the first time since last December and is now headed back towards the zero line.

Finally, for the first time since June, this downtrend line has been broken:

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[1713853332]

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[El duderino_]

Nice thread and always fun to read .... THX

[exstasie]

Quick update after the daily close:



Of note, yesterday was the highest volume day since the June top. That's a great sign for the bulls since volume usually confirms the primary trend.

We held above $8,800 so the "bullish three outside up" pattern mentioned in the OP has completed. That suggests continued upside to come, though we should probably expect some ranging after all that volatility the past two days.

The death cross confirmed but I'm not too worried about it. I think it'll be a false cross.

[exstasie]

Price action is looking constructive. Flagging in the $9,000s is exactly what bulls want to see. Holding above the 50% retrace level after such a massive move up suggests buyers are in control of the market.



xxxx123abcxxxx is speculating about a dip to the mid-$8,000s......that's possible in the short term. I suspect any such dip will be short-lived.

Cross-posting this with an updated chart:

The weekly candle closes in just 4 hours. Assuming it stays up here, it'll be a major bullish confirmation for me. Not only is it a bullish outside reversal, but it's a very clear example of what John Bollinger (inventor of Bollinger bands) calls a "headfake":



The bands are squeezing, so we're obviously coiling for a mid-term breakout. The market attempted to trigger a downside squeeze with that wick below the lower BB, but it was summarily rejected. That's the headfake.

Years of experience has taught me, it's very important to pay attention to where the market doesn't want to go. It clearly doesn't want to go down. And as I said, we're coiling for breakout. So chances are it'll be in the other direction.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Looking at that weekly chart from exstasie, I noticed there's a chance for upward "3 bar play" pattern. Last week was wide range igniting bar, current week should trade between roughly $8800 and $9600 and next week we can expect breakthrough towards 12000 or higher if price breaks the resistance at 9700.
I am not very experienced in TA so can someone confirm if this scenario would be considered as 3 bar play.

[exstasie]

Looking at that weekly chart from exstasie, I noticed there's a chance for upward "3 bar play" pattern. Last week was wide range igniting bar, current week should trade between roughly $8800 and $9600 and next week we can expect breakthrough towards 12000 or higher if price breaks the resistance at 9700.
I am not very experienced in TA so can someone confirm if this scenario would be considered as 3 bar play.

I'm not familiar with that pattern, but it's a valid setup based on what I'm seeing.

Last week was the range expansion, the first bar. This week is the consolidation, the second bar. So if the range breaks upwards next week, that'll be the long entry according to the "3 bar play" idea.

If it plays out, I see weekly resistance at $11,500-$12,300.

[exstasie]

Update on the 4-hour chart:



The last little headfake off the lower BB got bought back up into the range. The short term Chande hit oversold levels; indicators are recharging nicely. So the bulls are holding the range up quite well. $9K might just hold before the next move up.

If we do end up dipping from here, I'm looking for support at the daily 20-MA (the BB basis) in the mid-$8,000s:

[darkangel11]

Observe the 50ma it's a good although lagging indicator of what market we're in at the moment. Now we are above it which is bullish but if we fall below 8800 it's going to be bearish. Again we could dip and return above it which would be a fakeout but if we stay below it for days it's going to look bad and create more sell volume.
We're getting near close to an important moment which is end of the pennant that we're currently in and an exit is going to happen within days.
For instance if it happens in 2 days we will need a move to around 9400 and not a wick but full candle and it will indicate a bullish breakout. If we go below 8900 it's going to be a bearish breakout. I guess we have 60% chance for a bullish breakout.

[1Referee]

I'm pretty firm on my believe that we won't see much of a price advancement until we close that CME gap. I expected it to happen earlier this week, but it seems that we're facing bulls ready to buy the lower $9000 area quickly. It's much better to trend a little down in the short term and close that gap than to do it somewhere in the forthcoming months, which sucks harder.

As long as we don't again close consecutive candles below the 200 daily moving average I'm confident that the market is ready to move forth.

Glad we're not far from closing a bullish monthly candle.

[exstasie]

Observe the 50ma it's a good although lagging indicator of what market we're in at the moment. Now we are above it which is bullish but if we fall below 8800 it's going to be bearish.

Falling below $8,800 may not be as bearish as you think. If my EW count is correct, we are currently in a minor Wave 2. A typical pullback would be in the 0.618 range, in this case the $8,500s. That's also where the 20-day MA will be in a day or two.

David (dmwardjr) is also looking at the mid-$8,000s as a possible bottoming area: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52925879#msg52925879

So don't get too bearish if we go below $8,800. You might end up selling the bottom.

[NeuroticFish]

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).
Week-ends use to bring "unnatural" movements on the market. Also some countries are in banking holiday today. Any bet for what'll happen this week-end?

[buwaytress]

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).
Week-ends use to bring "unnatural" movements on the market. Also some countries are in banking holiday today. Any bet for what'll happen this week-end?

Not that it's any correlation at all, but I wonder if today is particularly different now that you mentioned it.

I have my regular sell time now (get my "salary" in Bitcoin and it's pay-the-bills time) and typically it's also the time people get regular salaries and want to buy Bitcoin but it's been hours on LBC, top of the list for my country, and no bites. Zero.

Makes me wonder what's in store for the weekend too.

[exstasie]

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).

I actually sense a healthy amount of pessimism. Plenty of people are calling last week's move "just a short squeeze" and are still planning on buying in the $5,000s or $6,000s.

It's true that open shorts got chopped in half and aren't recovering (at least on Bitfinex) but the more important factor is the price action. The market isn't bleeding straight back down as usually happens in bear market short squeezes. Any dips into the $8,000s were quickly bought. We're flagging well above the 0.5 retrace level a week later. Bears are sweating, for good reason.

[exstasie]

Considering momentum on the monthly time frame, the best historical comparison we have for the June-November time period is November 2015-April 2016:



Two things to note here:

• The last two times Chande Momentum hit overbought levels, we entered long term bull markets.
• Unlike early 2014 and early 2018 (which marked the start of long term bear markets), the market is hovering at overbought levels rather than declining into the range. The current price action is much more similar to early 2016.

[exstasie]

I wanted to cross-post some ideas from some other threads. First, some commentary on Bitfinex commitment of traders and trapped bears:

Look at what happened to shorts (at the bottom, in red):



We can see that shorts increased by ~30% in the $7,000s and peaked at the bottom on October 24th. Then they were squeezed and short levels bottomed out on October 26th when price hit $10,500.

Also, consider all the price action in the red box. From September 24th to October 25th, the market ranged below $8,800. Considering that price is now in the $9,300s, all sellers/shorters in that range who didn't buy back lower are now sitting in loss.

We can also be fairly sure the vast majority of traders did not buy back lower. Why? Sentiment was deathly bearish in the $7,000s. Everyone expected at least $7K; most people expected $5K-$6K if not $3K. In hindsight, we can now see this was extreme bottom selling sentiment. Bears weren't buying back in the $7,000s and this is confirmed by looking at short levels.

The way we ripped through the $8,800 range high and haven't returned below again trapped a massive amount of bears. They are the fuel for the next move up.

And here are some thoughts on short term expectations:

The only thing I see here is a bull flag of sorts. Clear flag pole and sideways pullback above the 50% level:



A typical pullback would be to the 50%-61.8% range, the green box. However the pullback has been shallow and drawn out, suggesting this may be more of a sideways "time" correction than a "price" correction. I'm not sure we'll make it there.

Look to the left to see examples of failed short squeezes, and how quickly the gains were lost. It's quite a contrast to the current chart.

[exstasie]

The market appears to be breaking upwards from this short term triangle, and volume is confirming:



This could be the start of the move to $11,500-$12,300 discussed here.

Otherwise, we could just be carving out a longer trading range. These intraday triangle breakouts aren't always reliable.

[exstasie]

Fake-out! Yesterday's late day pump got fully retraced, and then some:



Brutal price action. It could be like Bulkowski says about these triangles:

Busted: Price sometimes breaks out in one direction and then reverses to bust out in a new direction. Trade the new direction for a powerful move.
http://thepatternsite.com/dt.html

Shorting season is already over for me, but I've got spot bids in the $8,500-$8,800 range. Maybe it's time they got filled?

[royalfestus]

Far too many seem to be expecting a bullish movement, but the last week was mostly losing on the price (which is obviously normal after the jump we had one week ago).

I actually sense a healthy amount of pessimism. Plenty of people are calling last week's move "just a short squeeze" and are still planning on buying in the $5,000s or $6,000s.

It's true that open shorts got chopped in half and aren't recovering (at least on Bitfinex) but the more important factor is the price action. The market isn't bleeding straight back down as usually happens in bear market short squeezes. Any dips into the $8,000s were quickly bought. We're flagging well above the 0.5 retrace level a week later. Bears are sweating, for good reason.

If we dont see $6000 this November, we might likely not see it again this year. It is likely to dump by January but not as low to $6000 before another rally toward the halving month. if not for the china impoved regulation we could be around $6000 but since we have overcome that, I dont see the dump again. It is advisable to buy around $7000-$9000 if we saw it lower.

[1Referee]

I'm pretty firm on my believe that we won't see much of a price advancement until we close that CME gap.

At last, the CME gap has closed. The price of CME futures experienced a mini flash crash to $8360 to jump back above $9300 quickly.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME%3ABTC1!

https://cointelegraph.com/news/manipulation-cme-bitcoin-futures-flash-crash-to-fill-85k-gap

Whether it was an intentional fill or a fat finger (I'm leaning towards the first option), it's super bullish that we have that gap filled and can now move on building on a complete chart.

[exstasie]

I'm pretty firm on my believe that we won't see much of a price advancement until we close that CME gap.

At last, the CME gap has closed. The price of CME futures experienced a mini flash crash to $8360 to jump back above $9300 quickly.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME%3ABTC1!

https://cointelegraph.com/news/manipulation-cme-bitcoin-futures-flash-crash-to-fill-85k-gap

Whether it was an intentional fill or a fat finger (I'm leaning towards the first option), it's super bullish that we have that gap filled and can now move on building on a complete chart.

Given that spot markets stayed above $9,100 that was unexpected!

Really fishy price action looking at CME's 1-min chart. Almost all the volume came in above $9,100. The order book must have been pretty empty. In any case, all the stops got run so CME is ready for takeoff if the spot market says so.

I have a friend operating on the theory that institutions take positions on CME and then move the (illiquid) spot market. Naturally he's bullish.