Yet another analyst

[exstasie]

The short-term triangle everyone was watching turned out to be a dud. The Bitcoin market is so much choppier than it used to be. Every day it looks more like the stock market, the way it busts through important levels then runs the other way.

It looks like the daily is still building out this bull flag. My overall bias is bullish but it's difficult to rule out something like this:

[1713242109]

1713242109

[exstasie]

I guess that suspicious low-volume CME gap fill wasn't enough to turn the market around. There's our shakeout:



It looks ugly right now, but we'll probably see wicking action in this mid-upper $8,000s range off the 50-day MA for a couple days. Then we should see a recovery.

[Wexlike]

I guess that suspicious low-volume CME gap fill wasn't enough to turn the market around. There's our shakeout:

*snip*

It looks ugly right now, but we'll probably see wicking action in this mid-upper $8,000s range off the 50-day MA for a couple days. Then we should see a recovery.

Excellent prediction exstasie. How do you think are the chances that we break below 8000$ ?

[exstasie]

It looks ugly right now, but we'll probably see wicking action in this mid-upper $8,000s range off the 50-day MA for a couple days. Then we should see a recovery.

Excellent prediction exstasie. How do you think are the chances that we break below 8000$ ?

Unlikely, maybe a 10-15% chance if I had to put a number on it. I would be surprised if we made it below the $8,500 area. We still probably have a day or two left of downward pressure before the trend reverses but I don't think we're going much lower.

I think the market is in a similar position to October 24th.

[exstasie]

Here's an update on this idea:



The chart formed a fractal of the October 23-25 price action. In other words, another "spring." Bears broke down the weekly pivot low but the market firmly rejected the new trading range. This illustrates that the path of least resistance is up.

Not sure we'll be taking off right away but I do believe now that $8,660 is the lowest we'll see.

[exstasie]

I noticed some comments that Google trends data for "Bitcoin" was bearish. Let's have a look: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2019-03-01%202019-11-10&q=bitcoin



I can see what they're saying. All the gains from this year's rally are gone. However I'm not sure this translates well into price action.

I've been saying for a while that this year's bull run and subsequent correction mirror the one from October 2015-April 2016. Let's have a look at Google trends data from that time period: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2015-10-15%202016-04-15&q=bitcoin



Notice any similarities?

It was in May 2016 that the market confirmed continuation of the 2016-2017 bull market. So while Google trends may look bearish when only considering the trend since this past June, things really don't look that bad.

[Wexlike]

I noticed some comments that Google trends data for "Bitcoin" was bearish. Let's have a look: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2019-03-01%202019-11-10&q=bitcoin

*snip*

I can see what they're saying. All the gains from this year's rally are gone. However I'm not sure this translates well into price action.

I've been saying for a while that this year's bull run and subsequent correction mirror the one from November 2015-April 2016. Let's have a look at Google trends data from that time period: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2015-10-15%202016-04-15&q=bitcoin

*snip*

Notice any similarities?

It was in May 2016 that the market confirmed continuation of the 2016-2017 bull market. So while Google trends may look bearish when only considering the trend since this past June, things really don't look that bad.

Isn't that mostly the case? Do the opposite of what the majority does Thank you for giving a rough percentage for your prediction, looks that you were right.

I was always a big fan of Morecoin Freeman's simple prediction of using the 20 week MA line. He didn't update for a long time anymore in his thread( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1024633.340 ) but according to his idea the MA20 might work as resistance here:



What do you think ?

[exstasie]

I was always a big fan of Morecoin Freeman's simple prediction of using the 20 week MA line. He didn't update for a long time anymore in his thread( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1024633.340 ) but according to his idea the MA20 might work as resistance here:



What do you think ?

The 20-week MA is definitely acting as resistance. We wicked right through it and are consolidating below. I don't think bouncing off it is a bearish sign though; it's just a pullback.

Breaking back above the 20-week MA will be confirmation of a new mid-term uptrend, just like back in March.

[exstasie]

I'm surprised by the failed spring today. This doesn't happen too often. All of yesterday's gains were reversed, and then some. Bummer!

We're still trading around the original buy zone, yet to wick through the 50-day MA or reach oversold levels on the Chande indicator. Maybe we'll go for oversold and/or take a stab at that 0.618 level:



I'm still bullish mid-term, though seeing a failure like this is jolting. As I've said before, it's important to pay attention to where the market doesn't want to go, and we've just had a strong signal it doesn't want to go up.

Maybe it was only a short term whipsaw, but this is a good time to stay on your toes and on the sidelines rather than piling into a position (especially a leveraged one).

[Tzupy]

Right now the 6h PSAR flipped to bullish, and 12h PSAR could flip to bullish in about 3 - 4 days, just by going sideways.
If that will happen, and 12h MACD will flip to bullish too (which seems quite possible), then a mini-rally to about 12k$ will become possible.

[LUCKMCFLY]

@exstasie your way of seeing the market is very interesting, it is nice to see your vision, I would like to share my vision through my analysis:



1.-I like to analyze the market under the theory of Wyckoff, according to Wyckoff we are already in the upward trend phase, these movements are normal before starting maybe the test at the price levels that it is currently, to eliminate offer and start to go up testing offer at high levels.

2.- I have seen some kind of coincidence in terms of indicators, in this case the MA (28) and MA (14), where MA (14) Staying above MA (28) is likely not to lower the price much. (this 1D analysis)

3.- I agree with you in this medium-term trend, I don't know much about the indicators, but I will find the good point here where I indicated you.

4.-Given that there is daily news worldwide, countries with inflationary crises, I think that the demand for Bitcoin affected, therefore to Demand> supply, the price goes up.

I think that we are in a bullish scenario, but that equal caution should be taken, due to people's emotions, many times the market moves in the opposite direction to those that most give, although many technical analysts claim that the market will be bassist, I hope and the opposite happens.

[barota]

don't be effect by short term . the current bear market to end soon . there is no other chart . i am sure that prices of bitcoin can reach another high price more than of 2018 before halving always. prices to recover next month or by december

[exstasie]

Buyers followed through on this bullish reaction. We've got ourselves a nice inverted H&S on the 4-hour chart:



I wouldn't get too excited yet though. We've got lots of horizontal and volume resistance in the upper $7,000s and low $8,000s now. Once this mini-rally peters out, we should get a sharp dip back down which will hopefully be a higher low and the start of a recovery.

Holding the $7,300s as support on a pullback would be a major bullish signal.

[exstasie]

Piggybacking on xxxx123abcxxxx's potentially completed wave 2 count, I'm toying with the idea that we're looking at a leading diagonal pattern:



As Bulkowski points out:

The leading diagonal usually occurs as part of wave one of impulses or wave A of zigzags.

So from an EW perspective, this could be the start of an impulsive bullish wave that resumes the early 2019 bull market.

Short term, a pullback to the 0.382-0.618 area would be expected. This idea would obviously be invalidated by new lows beyond $6,515 (Bitstamp).

[exstasie]

Piggybacking on xxxx123abcxxxx's potentially completed wave 2 count, I'm toying with the idea that we're looking at a leading diagonal pattern:



Short term, a pullback to the 0.382-0.618 area would be expected.

This leading diagonal idea is still alive. We need to see further Wave 3-type action to confirm, but it's looking good so far:



That's a nice little spring off the $7,000s on strong hourly volume. All the bears bragging about their shorts the last few days just started sweating! Let's see what the honey badger has in store......

[exstasie]

Someone really didn't like the taste of that pump this morning. They just market sold ~1,300 BTC on Coinbase Pro over 3 minutes. Granted, there were a few stops that triggered too, but obviously lots of coins market sold into an empty book.



The bad news is the chart is now showing a fractal similar to November 10-11th, which preceded a crash. I will say though, in my experience fractals rarely play out the same in succession like this, so I'm curious to see what happens next:

[exstasie]

These high volume wicks into lower highs are a bearish sign. Every attempt to break out is being quickly squashed:

Signs are beginning to point to an incoming long squeeze too. Shorts on Bitfinex keep declining into each upward spike, down nearly 30% over the past several days. Longs on the other hand are mooning.

[El duderino_]

Damn don't let loose the bear 

[Wexlike]

Urgh, the long to short ratio is truly disgusting...

[exstasie]

Urgh, the long to short ratio is truly disgusting...

Yeah it's pretty ridiculous. Granted, I've been trolled by long/short data before, and Bitfinex is not the whole market. It does fit with the bearish price action though. Lots of outstanding longs are pressuring the market down and there are no shorts providing support.

In terms of historical cycles and mean reversion theory, I do think the market is already reaching oversold levels and that we'll be trading much higher in 2020. Short term though, a revisit to the $6,000s or even a short-lived spike to the $5,000s looks possible.