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February 28, 2021, 07:54:26 PM *
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Question: When $60K? (EST time zone)
Feb. 21 - 7 (5.7%)
Feb. 22 - 19 (15.6%)
Feb. 23 - 13 (10.7%)
Feb. 24 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 25 - 8 (6.6%)
Feb. 26 - 9 (7.4%)
Feb. 27 - 3 (2.5%)
Feb. 28 - 4 (3.3%)
March - 28 (23%)
After March - 14 (11.5%)
Never - 8 (6.6%)
Total Voters: 122

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25183752 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
d_eddie
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Today at 07:14:27 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2)

When has the top of a cycle ever been just over 2 x the previous cycle high? Come on guys, you’re better than this FFS. This is just a regular (close to) 30% correction which happens multiple times in a bull run.

Rinse & repeat guys, we’re only at the second significant dip of this bull run (post halving).

This is the last bull run



You’ll see multiple significant corrections on the way up to $19,xxx.

Some of you have been in bitcoin even longer than me. Sack up FFS!

Yes, it is a second deep correction with the total number last time being 6.
I agree that two is maybe a low number, which probably portends well.
The only difference is the weak-hand institutional managers to whom 20% down is a 'bear market'.

I'd figure those institutional managers would try to get a clue about the world they're entering before committing their institutional bucks to something. Have they not seen the past charts? Haven't they factored in the possibility of mildish retracement (such at the present one, at least at the moment)?

Or, as one of our most raging bulls succintly put it, those institutional investors are supposed to have...

Much stronger hands than mailmen and grannies in 2017 if you ask me...  Grin

I always welcome your point of view btw. I'm out of merit and don't want to inflate WOsMerit too much either, least capt. Toxic spanks me for brrrrr-ing his creation to oblivion. Just keep it coming. Wink
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sirazimuth
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Today at 07:23:21 PM

......
I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.   Tongue Tongue

...
Well, I have to admit, after those particular thinkenings, it did make my lil selfie
mood go a lil on the uppity to perhaps help and contrast with my king daddy going downity lil feewings....

JayJuanGee
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Today at 07:27:22 PM
Last edit: Today at 07:37:32 PM by JayJuanGee

Order @ $43.5k just got filled.
Well, I provided you 0.05 BTC of liquidity for ya...  [Careful readers of JJG posts might note my "sell DCA"]

I am not going to claim any credit for your technique.

I have frequently argued for DCA, buy on dips and HODL as techniques to accumulate, and once you reach your accumulation goals, then you might consider other matters including whether to "over accumulate".. but then also maintenance and liquidation are other categories that come into consideration once accumulation goals are largely or mostly met.

Frequently peeps talk about DCA'ing out of their BTC investment on the way up, but I really don't consider that to be the right verbiage or even the right way of considering the matter and the various techniques that might be employed on the way up, including selling on the way up.. and even selling at all does not seem to come into play until you have really considered where you are at in terms of accumulation or even overaccumulation..  

Actually, there are a variety of techniques to consider for when prices go up, and why you might sell some BTC - and surely it could become complicated to go into them very much, but I still would not consider them to be any kind of DCA technique because that seems to be nearly pure muddy thinking.

Should we talk about liquidation?  Should we talk about maintenance?  I hope that you, OROBTC, are not talking about DCA'ing on the way up (and out) as a mode for accumulation, because I clearly reject that as a strategy.

From your past posts, you, OROBTC, seem to talking about regular DCA'ing on the way up (and out) as a way to continuously consider rebalancing your BTC portfolio in a way to extract some of its value.  And, I am not an advocate of that kind of a system either.. I am more of a "let your winners ride" kind of a guy.. and cash out as needed rather than regularly - even though from time to time, you might have to consider your cashflow for the upcoming year and consider if you have enough.. things like that.

So, you may need to explain a bit more OROBTC in terms of how your technique is somewhat syncronized with a variety of my techniques and thinkenings in regards to how to manage your BTC holdings on the way up.. by the way, if you might not have noticed from some of my recent posts, I am surely having some struggles with considering the extent to which I might want to cash out additional BTC because I am kind of feeling like I already have way too much cash.. but anyhow, so I have not really talked about cashing out of BTC outside of my regular system that is more of a maintenance strategy rather than either reallocation or liquidation.. which seems to be more of your objectives.. and maybe you can disclose if you are actually thinking about using such techniques for BTC accumulation too?



BTC Amigos!  See other nearby thread by proudhon for definitive and proof that BTC's days are numbered!  It's been confirmed by China and Russia, and now I hear from my own South Korean contacts that they have demonstrated beyond doubt that $6500 *may* provide resistance.  Or maybe not.

"Abandon hope all ye who enter here"

You seem to be joking here.. so I am not going to substantively respond in any kind of meaningful detail to those kinds of considerations of anything that seriously contemplates corrections below $30k seem quite premature, even though corrections in the $20k to $30k would not be out of the question for a kind of realistically strong and even believable level of correction that could happen to really shake a lot of folks out of their BTC - but still seems to be on the lower likelihood of current probabilities given where we are at and what is going on in the overall markets.
kellrobinson
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Today at 07:29:01 PM

Where s = log (usd per btc / $0.02)
and t = 0.093928 * sqrt (days elapsed since 2010-09-08)
The Twopenny Indicator = (s-t) * sqrt(s+t)
The blue trace is the daily closing bitcoin price run through the twopenny equation (named for the denominator of s).
The red traces are constant-dollar lines at $10.33, $463, $7642 and $81550.  These isovalue lines, which intersect the baseline at halvings, are cyclical price drivers.




it seems that we cross the line and go higher by >2.5X, but 3X<
With 81550 being the line cross, this puts us to 203-244K area, with the historical projected average of "multiplication" factor of 2.73X over the line, resulting in 222.6K.
If we shall use last peak multiplicator of 2.588, then the projection is 211K
In any case, this is quite bullish if it would pan out.
Awesome charts.
Here you can see how the twopenny historically worked as a leading indicator.  I'm confident that the stepwise value driver theme will hold true in the coming cycles.
However, the next price driver level is indeterminate.  Straight-up curve fitting without fundamental analysis arrived at $81550.  The forecast assumes that bitcoin's price keeps bouncing off the baseline; i.e. that bitcoin's future baseline price will hew to the square root of time elapsed.
(red verticals sit at the halvings)
Biodom
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Today at 07:35:40 PM

......
I am not feeling so good about those kinds of thinkenings.   Tongue Tongue

...
Well, I have to admit, after those particular thinkenings, it did make my lil selfie
mood go a lil on the uppity to perhaps help and contrast with my king daddy going downity lil feewings....



Very nice, this is kind of talk this guy seem to be engaged in lately.

ammirite? lol

PS. maybe this is caused by his apparently (self-indicated) large bank account. I cringe to think what would happen at 100K.
Probably something along the lines of "Fear and loathing in Las Vegas".
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Today at 07:39:29 PM

...

I have not ever read that JJG is not a smart guy.

Yes, your assessment of my thinking is spot-on.  "DCA" works for selling as well, and yet I am still over 1% of my net in BTC.  Need some FIAT$ for helping get my grandsons best set-up.  But, to the extent possible, I am HODLing as much as possible.  Until the smoke clears, though, I cannot responsibly buy moar.  That time may eventually come however.

Thanks in part to you, BobLBl and many of you others, I have done very well with BTC.  "All gravy" at this point, not a life changer, but has worked out well.  It's nice playing with The House's money.  And to use some of that to fund two generations down.
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