please delete

[SapphireSpire]

nothing to  see

[CryptoBry]

Miners, get your hashrate up and increase the price!

I am hoping it is as simple as that, just raising the hashrate can mean that the price of Bitcoin will also be adjusting itself. The thing is that no matter how high the hashrate if the market is still lukewarm to Bitcoin then the price will be under the influence of the bears. Market manipulators do not care about the hashrate, they are more concerned if they can pull off their magical wand and move the market the way they wanted to. This is all business here, nothing more nothing less. However, I really love your very simple computation.

[Fatunad]

It does really work that way?
If price depends on the hashrate then there should be a lot of people knows where the price is going and a lot of people do not lost their investments due to the unpredictable price movement. I really do hope its just that easy to predict the btc price.

[adaseb]

No it doesn't work that way. Usually it's the other way around. The hashrate is determined by the price and not the other way around. 

I think this poster has it confused with some other formula, and that formula takes into account the amount of transactions and active addresses if I recall. And from what I remember we are way above that figure, it was somewhere in the $4500-$5000 range.

[Kemarit]

I don't know, lately I have noticed threads about hashrate=bitcoin price? How about the most basic factors? Supply and Demand? I guess that's the simplest form as to why the price goes down and up. I'm not discounting the fact that hashrate might has a affect, but I doubt that we can simply divide numbers here and come up with the supposedly price of Bitcoin. And the OP is saying that is is over valued? LOL, it just blows my mind.

[Stargazer]

You are wrong here, bitcoin price is not dependent on miners hash rate. If it that easy then every miner would do that to push the Bitcoin price. This price dump can be a manipulation by the whales so that people can sell at low and they can fill their new bags! But it can be calm before the storm. In December, the crypto market may see a very good pump!

[Upgrade00]

During the bear period experienced early this year, the value of Bitcoin plummeted to below $4k. At this point many miners closed down their rigs as it was unprofitable to keep searching for and confirming blocks. And the drop in miners reduced the competition and hence the hash rate, this shows that has rate adjusts to the market value of Bitcoin rather than the reverse.

[marcbitcoins]

All market prices like the stocks and the crypto currency investment will always depend on supply and demand in which for now there are lot of people are preferred to sell their Bitcoin rather than holding it for the long term making the Bitcoin users to continue to diminish.

[wajik-tempe]

Because the real price is:

(current hash rate in EHS) / $0.01

Recent hashrate was 82 EHS, therefore:

82 / $0.01 = $8,200

So even at ~$8,780, it's still a little over-priced.

Miners, get your hashrate up and increase the price!

So, if this calculation is valid. It means the price after the halving will at least doubled from this current price and it's make sense. So, i'm sure it's the buts time to buy bitcoins because the hashrate will doubled right after the halving held. But it will only happen when the demands is still the same just right now. If people are leaving and no investors are interest with bitcoin the price maybe less.

[Juggy777]

Miners, get your hashrate up and increase the price!

How about the most basic factors? Supply and Demand?

Bitcoin prices have always been influenced by supply and demand, and you can check the historical records of bitcoin prices to understand why hashrate is not an important factor in the increase of prices. I believe this is some kind of fud that’s been spread around to confuse the investors, hence I would advise you’ll to do your research and not rely on all statements that are posted here.

[Wexnident]

So, if this calculation is valid. It means the price after the halving will at least doubled from this current price and it's make sense. So, i'm sure it's the buts time to buy bitcoins because the hashrate will doubled right after the halving held. But it will only happen when the demands is still the same just right now. If people are leaving and no investors are interest with bitcoin the price maybe less.

You're already putting your hand in the supply and demand factors of BTC so why are you still including hashrates in it? You've already stated a possible reason for BTC price dump, demand.
Hashrates have never been (or at least, as far as I know) a factor in judging possible market pumps and dumps. Market price fluctuates and changes because of the supply and demand of BTC, and how willing is the market to accept a certain supply for a certain price.

[danherbias07]

What?!! That's it?
Do you mean all those discussion about demands and usage is all bullshit?
Really? I doubt that.  

So what else are we doing here if we cannot even help with the increase in value of bitcoin? We are just puppets of the miners?  
The good thing though is that, you are completely incomplete with what you said.
It lacks the formula of how the price should really be seen.

[NeuroticFish]

What?!! That's it?
Do you mean all those discussion about demands and usage is all bullshit?
Really? I doubt that.  

So what else are we doing here if we cannot even help with the increase in value of bitcoin? We are just puppets of the miners?  
The good thing though is that, you are completely incomplete with what you said.
It lacks the formula of how the price should really be seen.

Of course it's wrong.

The price *should* not go lower than the price price to produce it (but it's not necessarily so).
But what's the price to produce Bitcoin?

Some miners may have already the ROI for equipment. Some miners may have electricity price nearly 0 or may produce their own electricity from renewable sources. What if they already have ROI for that equipment too?
Some miners may hold, some miners may sell at a loss. And some miners may go out of business (or relocate!) because their electricity is too expensive anymore and they have no profit.

And many traders are not miners. There are investors, there are speculators, and the bigger ones may have quite an effect on the price.

So no. OP's equation is oversimplified, hence it's wrong.

[sheenshane]

snip-
Miners, get your hashrate up and increase the price!

Because it has a correlation the when the hashrate goes down also bitcoin price will down. That was explained very well here [1].
It means that the higher the hashrate, the more mining activity and probably the more transactions made and that made Bitcoin price goes up. Of course, the basic factor has also connections or relatively about the demand and the supply.

If the demand will increase, of course, there will be more profit will come and hashing is also profitable for miners. But sometimes miners quitting in mining because it has a small ROI due to the high electricity cost they are going to pay.

[Wysi]

You are wrong here, bitcoin price is not dependent on miners hash rate. If it that easy then every miner would do that to push the Bitcoin price. This price dump can be a manipulation by the whales so that people can sell at low and they can fill their new bags! But it can be calm before the storm. In December, the crypto market may see a very good pump!

Yes there is no way that miners can manipulate the price and I am telling this because I had been mining in the past, even miners depends on whales for price fluctuations in order to sell at high. I really wish your predictions about December's pump comes true as it will change the market perception.

[blckhawk]

I'm not sure whether this is true or not, but I have also read a thread here stating or analysing the correlation between hashrate and Bitcoin's price. Although I think there is something that drives the other, I'm also sure that there are a lot other factors to consider that dictates where the price is going. Recent news, community stance, adoption, current market demand, etc. also affects the price somehow. Maybe it is true when demand isn't going down, but the market is unpredictable, mainly because of the existence of the whales and how fast the price trend changes on a volatile market.

[BitHodler]

The speculative nature of this market makes it pretty much irrelevant what the miners pay in electricity to mine one whole Bitcoin.... traders just follow the chart and trade it as it comes, bearish or bullish.

If miners generate their coins well below the trading rate of Bitcoin and dump them below critical support levels then they are ruining their own market.... traders couldn't care less as they can make money in both directions.

[fabiorem]

Miners are the biggest whales, because they create bitcoin from electrical power. They need to distribute it, hence why the price tanks between the crash and the halving.

[pooya87]

lol. funny post.
you basically took the current price then divided the hashrate by that price to get the ratio and then reversed it to use that ratio as if it is a known thing to compute the price.
i can do the same thing with any other variable you like. i'd say because on June 15, 2017 price reached bottom and it was 878 days ago then price must be $8780 today

[barota]

I am in my opinion ; miners influence prices somewhat, but supply and demand also remain an important factor in influencing prices ;some traders rely on wrong analysis and charts, so some are still selling but as soon they have finished selling and the effect of some whale who control the prices is reduced. We find the opposite. In other words, prices will rise and be stronger

[cryptoangel]

Miners are the biggest whales, because they create bitcoin from electrical power. They need to distribute it, hence why the price tanks between the crash and the halving.

I don't think miners are biggest whales in Bitcoin because current scenario more than 85 percentage of Bitcoin is circulation so traders are the main reason for pump and dump. Normally most of the investors are concentrate trading platform so once they sell continuously it will drop gradually or else everyone concentrate buying the Bitcoin it will going to moon.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

It does really work that way?

No, it doesn't.  There is no rational way to predict what bitcoin should be valued at, though I've read similar theories like this based on mining.  The only thing that affects bitcoin's price is supply and demand--and since supply is increasing at a known rate, it basically all comes down to demand, or the buying and selling of bitcoin on exchanges.  That's it.

OP's theory might sound reasonable right now, but it doesn't exactly explain why bitcoin got to $13k a few months ago or any other extreme deviation from the theory.

[alexsandria]

It ain't working that way though, simple math lol. It has derivatives out there, and tons of people out there having some transaction stuff, buying and selling bitcoin that is directly affecting bitcoin price. It ain't all about hash power and miners should increase theirs to as well market will go increased. 'Cause if it will be going that way I am quite sure that miners need to set standards for them to increase bitcoin price way back before.

[jets567]

So what else are we doing here if we cannot even help with the increase in value of bitcoin? We are just puppets of the miners?  

Exactly! if we are depending on miners hash rate for the value of Bitcoin then it would be so easy to predict its price on the next coming months. I know that miners may somehow affect the price of Bitcoin but they don't have the full authority to dictate its price since large amount of Bitcoin is hold by whales and exchanges.

[el kaka22]

Hashrate doesn't reflect the price at all times, there needs to be a bit of increase from the hashrate in order to have some sort of profit as well, these people spend 8200 dollars to make 8780 dollars, that is not even a decent profit if you ask me, hence why the price should be even higher.

Still, when you look at last year when the price fell from 6-8k prices to close to 3 thousand dollars you will see that price could also go under the mining cost, people who have mined or people who have bitcoin from trading or some other way (Craig Wright for example got it for free) could just sell all their coins and even miners can't stop it, they just stop their machines to not make a loss which drops the difficulty and then they start it back up again when it is easier to mine.

[YuginKadoya]

Hashrate is not the key, this is simply fluctuation doing its work and I guess this is only a small decrease on the price and now as I speak the price is back again in $9000 USD, This is very simple indeed all of us are speculating yes, but what do we expect cryptocurrency is very volatile the price would surely not stay in one place it will surely move upward or downward at all times, maybe you are just used with the price being calm for a couple of days but for Bitcoin enthusiast this slight movement is very normal indeed.

[1Referee]

Recent hashrate was 82 EHS, therefore:

Recent? Like a month ago? The hashrate over a greater number of blocks hasn't gone under 90 eh/s.

The hashrate you are referring to is measured over a low number of blocks, which currently has jumped to 100 eh/s, so your 82 eh/s figure is not accurate anymore, just like how my 100 eh/s figure won't be accurate anymore in the forthcoming hours. That alone makes calculating the price versus the not accurate hashrate figure not a good foundation to build on to determine what a "fair" price is.

Did we forget what happened last year? People were so confident that miners needed the $6000 level to operate profitably, that they assumed $6000 was the bottom. It couldn't go below $6000. Well, it did and it went below $6000 a lot.

[Wexlike]

Recent hashrate was 82 EHS, therefore:

Recent? Like a month ago? The hashrate over a greater number of blocks hasn't gone under 90 eh/s.

The hashrate you are referring to is measured over a low number of blocks, which currently has jumped to 100 eh/s, so your 82 eh/s figure is not accurate anymore, just like how my 100 eh/s figure won't be accurate anymore in the forthcoming hours. That alone makes calculating the price versus the not accurate hashrate figure not a good foundation to build on to determine what a "fair" price is.

Did we forget what happened last year? People were so confident that miners needed the $6000 level to operate profitably, that they assumed $6000 was the bottom. It couldn't go below $6000. Well, it did and it went below $6000 a lot.

We have some background info now:

Hut 8 Mining Corp. Reports Financial Results for the Third Quarter of 2019

Q3-2019 Highlights:

• Revenue of $26.7 million; Mining Profit Margin of 58%, and Adjusted EBITDA of $14.7 million.
• Mined 1,965 bitcoin at a Cost per Bitcoin of US$4,363 inclusive of electricity costs, mining pool fees, and all other production costs.
• Strengthened balance sheet through the reduction of debt by $3.6 million and reduced accounts payable by more than $6 million from the prior quarter.
• Increased Retained Bitcoin inventory by 7.6% from the prior quarter to 3,496 bitcoin.
• Announced petahash capacity increases of 19.6%.
• Approval for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

[exstasie]

There is no rational way to predict what bitcoin should be valued at, though I've read similar theories like this based on mining.  The only thing that affects bitcoin's price is supply and demand--and since supply is increasing at a known rate, it basically all comes down to demand

Supply is increasing at a known rate but that says little about the total amount of BTC that will be sold on the market. Put another way, miner supply becomes less important over time as we head closer to zero inflation.

So both supply and demand are very opaque from a fundamental standpoint. That's why TA remains the best approach to price analysis.

[karanggatak]

I think this is not a matter of hashrate. bitcoin has high volatility so we don't need to worry or be confused with the current decline. after yesterday it dropped to $ 8,800 today bitcoin pumps again to $ 9,000. bitcoin is always like this fluctuating and this can be used as a good opportunity to be able to make a profit. I never worry when bitcoin goes down because I'm sure bitcoin will pump even higher. and in my opinion the decline yesterday was because bitcoin was correcting the market..

[Reid]

Wow! If I had only known that, then it would be easier as always.  
Imagine just looking at EHS and there you go, here is the price of it.
That would really simplify all and we dont even need to speculate here anymore.
We dont need those hard working analyst and technical viewers. We just need to ask the miners what is the EHS and Voila! we can trade it easily.
Wait! If all of us already know how to calculate the price, then what is the sense of trading it?  

[STT]

Sounds like a fair topic to consider but it wont ever be a fixed ratio when we have a free market and so much of our BTC market is people speculating with many varied reasons for speculating in their particular currency.    Its probably worth graphing this hash rate vs the price and how that develops over time, maybe it gives some indictor of relative value but since BTC does adjust also I guess its never going to fixed or forcing a price to occur.
  Reminds me alot of the ratio for oil to gold prices which does make alot of sense as gold requires so much energy to refine it from the raw material extracted initially, the purity requires quite alot of processing usually.   So over time, many decades they do find it tend to come to a certain ratio but as I remember it can double away from what is expected and its some indication of demand and growth in economies.    Its possible hash ratio can be useful to keep note of also.

[7788bitcoin]

So even at ~$8,780, it's still a little over-priced.
Miners, get your hashrate up and increase the price!

The price of bitcoin has nothing to do with the hash rate, when the price of bitcoin increases there might be more users mining and not the other way around. The price depends upon the basic principle of supply and demand and if the demand increases then the price will naturally increase and the reason why everyone is expecting a rally in bitcoin after halving is because the supply will decrease and not because the hash rate increase  .

[Doell]

I think this is not a matter of hashrate. bitcoin has high volatility so we don't need to worry or be confused with the current decline. after yesterday it dropped to $ 8,800 today bitcoin pumps again to $ 9,000. bitcoin is always like this fluctuating and this can be used as a good opportunity to be able to make a profit. I never worry when bitcoin goes down because I'm sure bitcoin will pump even higher. and in my opinion the decline yesterday was because bitcoin was correcting the market..

yes in fact the price of bitcoin has always been fluctuating and if do not want to take risks it will not be profitable ,demand and supply are factors that will grow the price but it would be better if more people adopted bitcoin to be used in real payments such as past pizza stories that will expand the network interest in the market

[Taskford]

I think this is not a matter of hashrate. bitcoin has high volatility so we don't need to worry or be confused with the current decline. after yesterday it dropped to $ 8,800 today bitcoin pumps again to $ 9,000. bitcoin is always like this fluctuating and this can be used as a good opportunity to be able to make a profit. I never worry when bitcoin goes down because I'm sure bitcoin will pump even higher. and in my opinion the decline yesterday was because bitcoin was correcting the market..

yes in fact the price of bitcoin has always been fluctuating and if do not want to take risks it will not be profitable ,demand and supply are factors that will grow the price but it would be better if more people adopted bitcoin to be used in real payments such as past pizza stories that will expand the network interest in the market

Many people got inspired for pizza stories but actually there's nothing it can do today since in the first place the Bitcoin at that time is almost no value and today we are at expensive state and provably if we can gather more people who's willing to stake then might we will see again those golden days what 2017 brings. But today for sure this current scenario is natural even of correction but hopefully soon we can see the price pumping so hard.

[BrewMaster]

Recent hashrate was 82 EHS, therefore:

Recent? Like a month ago? The hashrate over a greater number of blocks hasn't gone under 90 eh/s.

The hashrate you are referring to is measured over a low number of blocks, which currently has jumped to 100 eh/s, so your 82 eh/s figure is not accurate anymore, just like how my 100 eh/s figure won't be accurate anymore in the forthcoming hours. That alone makes calculating the price versus the not accurate hashrate figure not a good foundation to build on to determine what a "fair" price is.

Did we forget what happened last year? People were so confident that miners needed the $6000 level to operate profitably, that they assumed $6000 was the bottom. It couldn't go below $6000. Well, it did and it went below $6000 a lot.

about 2 months ago people went crazy about a simple swing in the hashrate charts and some of them even panicked in the market and sold their coins for no reason! just because a poorly written block explorer had a bug!
i created a topic about hashrate and how hashrate, how it is calculated in reality versus what these sites do and why that is bad. it got buried under spam in main board though. here is the link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5187499.0

[bitbunnny]

Why are people so surprised with current price range? It's the level the price was few weeks ago. Or does everyone really think once the price starts to rise there is no coming back? I always wonder if only Bitcoin users are so naive and under educated or every other investors in other types of investment ( like gold and stock exchange) are the same?

[coinfinger]

I will we can always have the real reason why bitcoin have the value it has at that time, but I think many of us are just trying our possible best to find an answer to it. Your analysis looks great but I doubt if that is what will make the value of bitcoin to increase. For the activities of miners to increase, the demand of bitcoin must also increase, and for the demand of bitcoin to increase, there are things that must contribute to it, it could be because of market manipulation, it could be because of adoption and any other reason.

I don’t know how this hash rate has become a factor to predict the value of bitcoin, but some of the one that I have seen as not really tallied at all and I just think that it does not really work the way that you see it.

[EdenHazard]

Why are people so surprised with current price range? It's the level the price was few weeks ago. Or does everyone really think once the price starts to rise there is no coming back? I always wonder if only Bitcoin users are so naive and under educated or every other investors in other types of investment ( like gold and stock exchange) are the same?

OP is just trying to correlating the mining process.. rewards to the current price mathematically.

While there's no way to do it technically, we are in the free market where things turned out non fixed pattern, the price will always move in unpredictable pattern due none of us has the power to fixed it at certain point.
That's what makes bitcoin beautiful, it's completely a form of freedom where we are not under anybody's control unlike stocks market and any other centralized financial market.

[Dart18]

I hope that is right. Next time we wont see a lot of graphs and some calculation theories if this is the case.
Who doesn't want it to be that easy?

But as I see to the comments above me, it looks like you got it all wrong.
There is what we call demand. Even with the price of any item out there, if it is just calculated with just as simple as that then we dont need people to buy it at any number.
Let us put turkey as an example. This December there will be a lot of orders of it because of the holidays so the price will be soaring.
That is demand, and bitcoin have that feature.

[d3nz]

That's a great analysis but still not the answer i think. We really don't know on why the market is going down but still a great opportunity to take advantage of this crisis because we can buy and wait until the value goes sky high.

And buying now is really good for a long term holding because we know that the price is increasingly every year and the only reason on why it goes down or dump really hard because of the FOMO and it really affects all and even the altcoin value.

[audaciousbeing]

Miners are the biggest whales, because they create bitcoin from electrical power. They need to distribute it, hence why the price tanks between the crash and the halving.

I don't think miners are biggest whales in Bitcoin because current scenario more than 85 percentage of Bitcoin is circulation so traders are the main reason for pump and dump. Normally most of the investors are concentrate trading platform so once they sell continuously it will drop gradually or else everyone concentrate buying the Bitcoin it will going to moon.

Based on the analysis of 85% in distribution, it just mean the happenings is dependent on activities of the market but really the problem is the people who follow the trend of activities and used that to make their own investment decisions. I have also seen panics happen to the detriment of everybody. Blaming the miners is just way over the line as an excuse for someone else to take the blame when in the real sense they are just some group of people following the trend of the market and wanting to make decent returns from it.

[BitHodler]

And buying now is really good for a long term holding because we know that the price is increasingly every year and the only reason on why it goes down or dump really hard because of the FOMO and it really affects all and even the altcoin value.

If people like the aspect of this market where the prices pump for a whole year, they also should accept that prices can't go up endlessly and for that reason will correct in a similar fashion.

We went through a year long bull market in 2017 and went through a year long bear market in 2018. I think that we are currently replicating the same cycle, but in a quicker fashion this time, which should make moon boys happy.

Is it a great time to buy today as a long term hold? It might be, but you shouldn't expect the price to go up from here.... we could still see some form of a correction and lower low before we go up.

[el kaka22]

There are a lot bigger whales compared to miners but they are really high up there. You know why miners are really whales? Because, not only that they can change the price but also they could also change the difficulty and hash rate which really is a difficult thing to achieve by all the other people. Hence that is why they are huge whales, not because they have a ton of bitcoin, which they do have but they are also in power of controlling hash rate and difficulty and transactions.

I really dislike them but I can't deny their powers, they are really strong. For example if there is a whale who has 100k bitcoins he could sell them but that means while he is trying to manipulate they are losing their power whereas miners could buy and sell and they will still have their mining power.

[Ryker1]

Well, reducing the hash rate will we can determine that the price of Bitcoin was dragging down and when it is pumping up in the market it also increases the hash rate. But those big whales have a power in those every changing the price. The unpredictable fluctuation was depended on those who are playing in the market, they know much better how to play and get profited by controlling the demand and the supply. I hope they will get tired soon in doing that when the price goes up.

[Hamphser]

That's a great analysis but still not the answer i think. We really don't know on why the market is going down but still a great opportunity to take advantage of this crisis because we can buy and wait until the value goes sky high.

And buying now is really good for a long term holding because we know that the price is increasingly every year and the only reason on why it goes down or dump really hard because of the FOMO and it really affects all and even the altcoin value.

OP just made up a story based on his own perspective but that's not really the real answer. A lot of factors that we might have to consider here to know exactly the price of bitcoin and it is not because of the hash rate that OP has been talking about. Prices are easily manipulated by the whales and most people were following every trend of it.

[Kasabus]

This is just like the same, why is BTC price is at $10k? Does it keep asking why it happens? Why there is a drop?

Because this is all about market fluctuations and we are facing it all the time, thus never wonder why we have such changes every sec or every minute.
For we can't hold the price any longer, we can't still at the top all the time, either we like it or not the market will turning up and down depending on the market flows.

[Bossian]

The price is this way just because of technical analysis, plain and simple. It's been the case since early 2018, the price has always been predicted by technical analysis. Price manipulation can still happen but it's useless to talk about it. Unless we break a strong resistance or go below a strong support, the price will just be decided by traders, and now the trend of traders is clearly bearish.

[Bossian]

This is just like the same, why is BTC price is at $10k? Does it keep asking why it happens? Why there is a drop?

Because this is all about market fluctuations and we are facing it all the time, thus never wonder why we have such changes every sec or every minute.
For we can't hold the price any longer, we can't still at the top all the time, either we like it or not the market will turning up and down depending on the market flows.

A price of 10k can easily be explained by short term trends.

If we go to 10k again it won't matter much because we will still be below the strong resistance around 12.4k. We can certainly go back to 10k and if we do I would suggest to sell and wait to see what happens after that.

[Darooghe]

In my opinion hash power follows price, not the other way around. If it were the other way around, the Bitmain could for example just create their own coin and get rich by putting all mining power behind it. but what would happen instead people would not assign much value to that coin resulting in Bitmain paying more for electricity than what their mined coins are worth. Instead of mining at a loss the miners would drop the hashrate until the equilibrium of coin price and electricity cost is reached. So hashrate naturally follows price.

[Capt00]

It does really work that way?
If price depends on the hashrate then there should be a lot of people knows where the price is going and a lot of people do not lost their investments due to the unpredictable price movement. I really do hope its just that easy to predict the btc price.

If it does then a lot people will be able to predict the price accurately, so it means that bitcoin price isn't unpredictable if its because of the hashrate. Bitcoin price is due to many factors, may it include the hash rate in mining but it is not the basis of the price, I think that it was just a coincidence. I know a lot of people are trying to determine what really is the reason of the price movements but always remember that bitcoin isn't as easy as what most people think and there are other factors that can affect the price.