Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?

[sikke]

I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.

It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.

So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.

[LargoCoin Foundation]

Look at the graph of halving and at the graph of price on the same timeframes, it will become even more obvious that they do have a connection.

[smyslov]

My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.

Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)

Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops?  If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?

Please share your thoughts

So far all the past halving did not disappoint us, we have arrive at the best price in 2017 and we are still in a good price as of this writing, we are better, than 7 years ago, this 2020 halving will bring good results in the price because only 900 Bitcoin will be mined after this half of what is mining today until 2024, if we are good after the 2016 we re going to be better 2010 onwards.
25/05/2020 ---- May 2024 ----- 6.25 Btc for block ------- 900 Btc every day

[bitbunnny]

Personally I don't believe that price bubble will happen after halving or that halving will bring some bigger changes in the market. Many expect to see big price pump but I don't think this will happen. Price will not rise fast and in bigger range, I expect more moderate prise rise.

[romero121]

Personally I don't believe that price bubble will happen after halving or that halving will bring some bigger changes in the market. Many expect to see big price pump but I don't think this will happen. Price will not rise fast and in bigger range, I expect more moderate prise rise.

Price bubble or the large scale growth will happen without doubt, but when this will happen is the question. With the past halving the growth got initiated months later to halving. The growth that took after months is very big, and to the days close to halving there is growth which is the beginning for a much higher price same as that we experienced with the 2017 market growth. Moderate price increase will continue to be the same as now, but the halving truly creates some value rise through its demand to limited availability. Even here manipulation happens, but that won't cause a big impact over the market.

[aardvark15]

I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.

It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.

So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.

You may be correct but either way we know that cutting the mining reward in half has to have some kind of affect. It’s just interesting that the bubbles/crashes historically seem to happen every 4 years.

[Omega Weapon]

I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.

It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.

So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.

You may be correct but either way we know that cutting the mining reward in half has to have some kind of affect. It’s just interesting that the bubbles/crashes historically seem to happen every 4 years.

It is clear that there is a market cycle in this market that happens every four years and it is very difficult to ignore that the halving also happens every four years, however the market is not as predictable if it was then everyone will earn money in the markets and we know that is not true, so I am expecting that the next halving is going to be slightly different, most likely what we are going to see is that the market is not going to move much for months, people will get desperate and will sell their coins and that is when the price will go up.

[arwin100]

I actually don't think that a bubble will form as a result of the halving this time round.

It's much more likely that this time, a more graduated and mild run up will occur when come halving time, because of the fact that the sentiment within the market is still extremely bearish and that will take time to reverse.

So to your question, is it a catalyst for a bubble? Not necessarily. Is it a catalyst for a bull run? absolutely.

You may be correct but either way we know that cutting the mining reward in half has to have some kind of affect. It’s just interesting that the bubbles/crashes historically seem to happen every 4 years.

It is clear that there is a market cycle in this market that happens every four years and it is very difficult to ignore that the halving also happens every four years, however the market is not as predictable if it was then everyone will earn money in the markets and we know that is not true, so I am expecting that the next halving is going to be slightly different, most likely what we are going to see is that the market is not going to move much for months, people will get desperate and will sell their coins and that is when the price will go up.

Any speculation regarding to that matter is not accurate but we can ride the fact that there something good will be happen once the halving effect will be occur and base to those histories it shows that  we can get a positive insights on what will happen on future so maybe the best thing to do for now is to follow the market trend updates and see if we can see a good things in the presence of that season.

And for sure everyone will sell there hodl coins at that time since there are many people bagholds and wait for the opportunity to come up with there losses for the pass bear market streak.

[barbara44]

I'm thinking maybe the decrease that we are seeing right now is due to the halving that is coming. After the halving there will still be another decrease and that's for sure, but the question is when will the bull run be, is it going to be after the halving or before the halving?

I have seen a lot of price predictions by experts, some of them claimed that there will be an increase this year and this year is coming to an end and the price is still down to $7000 plus and still showing signs of decreasing. Halving is still far though, around May 2020, so does that mean there is a chance that bull run will take place before the halving? Maybe the price will go up and after the halving it will go down again. Best thing is just to keep on holding, if you can.

[DeathAngel]

I don’t call it a bubble. Bubbles pop & don’t inflate again. After each halving supply is lessened & the price goes up as a result. It’s a natural increase in price with a high top & then a correction.

Bitcoin has never been a bubble.

[Omega Weapon]

I'm thinking maybe the decrease that we are seeing right now is due to the halving that is coming. After the halving there will still be another decrease and that's for sure, but the question is when will the bull run be, is it going to be after the halving or before the halving?

I have seen a lot of price predictions by experts, some of them claimed that there will be an increase this year and this year is coming to an end and the price is still down to $7000 plus and still showing signs of decreasing. Halving is still far though, around May 2020, so does that mean there is a chance that bull run will take place before the halving? Maybe the price will go up and after the halving it will go down again. Best thing is just to keep on holding, if you can.

While we all know that the market doesn't behave in the exact same way, during the last halving the price did not go up immediately, it took months for the price to begin to go up and it took more than one year to see the bull market that everyone was expecting and now that there is a bearish sentiment it is possible that the price will keep going down during the next months and that the halving is only going to stop that tendency only for one year later the bull market could appear.

[adaseb]

I am pretty sure that the BTC miners are more hodl'er than miners who mine coins such as ETH. Most BTC miners are probably large corps that can have periods of drawdown and they are able to hold their coins and wait for a bull market to sell. If they were in the business for years they got good capital to pay for electricity costs and what-not. So even though the daily miner reward for BTC is something like $12 million, I am sure most of those aren't instantely dumped on the market.

The ETH market is different. Its more home oritented miners who are still paying off their GPUs and need to pay for their electricity. So I am assuming that there are many miners who just sell at market price without hodling because they can't wait for the market conditions to improve. As long as they sell at a profit I guess they don't really care.

So who knows if the BTC halving will have a huge effect on price, price is already magnitudes higher than the previous 2 halvings.

[TastyChillySauce00]

We all know that the supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million and all these halving are predetermined event which everyone actually expected and I can't see this could drive the price up somehow. But, it could indeed become a catalyst aswell as a method to spread out news regarding bitcoin and giving impression that bitcoin is becoming scarce which could probably indirectly affect the whole market perception regarding the current market trend but that's it and nothing more, forget about bubble because it's not going to happen anytime soon but, just my opinion tho.

[crossabdd]

in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results. and mining is increasingly difficult. by looking at economic theory. that every scarcity of goods will make prices go up. so that possibility also applies with bitcoin. the more difficult bitcoin is to mine and get. then the price will go up. I hope the bubble will occur again in 2020 after halving.

[aardvark15]

We all know that the supply of bitcoin is capped at 21 million and all these halving are predetermined event which everyone actually expected and I can't see this could drive the price up somehow. But, it could indeed become a catalyst aswell as a method to spread out news regarding bitcoin and giving impression that bitcoin is becoming scarce which could probably indirectly affect the whole market perception regarding the current market trend but that's it and nothing more, forget about bubble because it's not going to happen anytime soon but, just my opinion tho.

I guess my perspective is that the reason for the price increase after a halving is more due to the mining difficulty and scarcity. You may be right about the bubble but it’s not just Bitcoin that experiences bubbles. All markets have them at some point.

[Lanatsa]

in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results. and mining is increasingly difficult. by looking at economic theory. that every scarcity of goods will make prices go up. so that possibility also applies with bitcoin. the more difficult bitcoin is to mine and get. then the price will go up. I hope the bubble will occur again in 2020 after halving.

We dont need a bubble which i would much prefer if we would able to see an organic gradual growth in price yet we've known on what would happen to see a bubble like movement when it tends to pop out.

Its better to have slow pace rise but well neither way, price of btc is always been volatile it can jump up and dumped down in a short span of time.Halving event to be a catalyst? Theres no brainer for that.

[Barbut]

in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results.

It's not theory, it's a fact. This is not the first halving, we had one 2012, then 2016 and next year we will have Bitcoin halving again. It's a 50% reduction for the miners and every time halving was the catalyst for the market to rise. Bitcoin will rise, and Bitcoin will pull some altcoins too, it's happened before, and it will happen again.

[Omega Weapon]

in theory halving is a 50% reduction in reward from mining results. and mining is increasingly difficult. by looking at economic theory. that every scarcity of goods will make prices go up. so that possibility also applies with bitcoin. the more difficult bitcoin is to mine and get. then the price will go up. I hope the bubble will occur again in 2020 after halving.

The halving is only going to affect the future rewards and not the number of coins that already exist, what is decreasing is not the supply of bitcoin but the rate at which bitcoin is created, as time passes bitcoin halvings are going to be less influential as we are getting closer to the maximum supply, so what we need in order to drive the price of bitcoin up is demand which is precisely what we are lacking and that I do not know if we are going to get enough of it during 2020 to see that bubble coming again to the market.