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 Author Topic: [Merits again] Discuss the velocity of Bitcoin  (Read 555 times)
odolvlobo
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 November 20, 2019, 09:44:05 AMMerited by Jet Cash (5), JayJuanGee (1)

The term "velocity" comes from the Equation of Exchange, MV = PQ, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity, and PQ is the total value of goods exchanged for the money. The velocity can be thought of the number of times a particular unit of the money is spent in the time period.

The velocity is important because it determines the value of the money supply. You can rewrite the equation as M = PQ / V. Since the number of bitcoins can be considered constant at 21 million (though we are actually not quite there yet), this shows that the value of a bitcoin depends on adoption (as measured by PQ) and the velocity. Assuming constant adoption, increasing the velocity results in a lower value and decreasing the velocity results in a higher value.

The velocity is affected by several factors, including hoarding, fractional reserve banking, and technology.

Hoarding: If a portion of the money supply is hoarded and thus spent very slowly, then that behavior, of course, reduces the velocity.

Fractional Reserve Banking: With fractional reserve banking, each actual bitcoin backs a larger number of apparent bitcoins. The ratio is called the money multiplier, and the velocity is increased by this ratio. You could instead apply the ratio to the number of bitcoins, but I think it is easier to apply it to the velocity and stick with a constant 21 million bitcoins.

Technology: One of the factors that affects the velocity is simply how quickly a person can spend money that they have received. For example, the artificial delay in money transfers in the U.S. ("3 to 5 business days") lowers the velocity. Technology can speed this up. Bitcoins can be spent again by a receiver even before the transaction has been confirmed. The Lightning Network allows bitcoins locked up in channels to be spent and respent over and over. Better technology increases the velocity.

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 November 20, 2019, 06:44:53 PMMerited by JayJuanGee (1)

I believe that in the case of Bitcoin, the velocity should be calculated using the quantity of coins that are apparently available and released for use. I believe this because Bitcoin means a variety of things to different people and organisation, and its capabilities are fairly complex.

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 November 20, 2019, 07:12:44 PMMerited by Jet Cash (2)

I believe that in the case of Bitcoin, the velocity should be calculated using the quantity of coins that are apparently available and released for use. I believe this because Bitcoin means a variety of things to different people and organisation, and its capabilities are fairly complex.

There seems to be a decent number of ways to consider the matter, Jet Cash.  Of course, if we are talking about effect of the actual physical coins, then we are talking about more of a hard effect rather than the soft effects of expectations, so I personally believe that it could be presented either way, and sometimes physical alone can be considered and sometimes expectations of future issuance and whether bitcoin is actually on schedule regarding issuance (which seems pretty concretely set  when it comes to bitcoin).

Of course, bitcoin is amongst the first of asset classes that is being attempted to be used as money and to have a solid scarcity.  Sometimes, I was taking issue with some of the stock to flow discussions because from my reading, sometimes I was missing the parallel that was being attempted, so they were trying to suggest that bitcoin is mined and new coins come into existence, and sure there is some truth to that, but we also know what that is going be with a decently high level of certainty, even accounting for the various scenarios in which consensus could be changed to inflate the BTC supply.

Many of us have also noticed another phenomenon and that is before bitcoin halvenings there is all kinds of pressures to attempt to keep BTC prices down, and even to spread FUD suggesting that bitcoin halvenings were going to cause the opposite effect than what logic would dictate, including the dumbass death spiraling of mining power based on loss of incentives to mine.  Anyhow, what seems to happen is the various powers that be in the bearwhale space push the BTC price down for as long as they can and as low as they can.  And it seems to me that part of the reason that we end up having such an explosion in the price that ends up happening a decent amount of time after the halvening is because the actual physical supply of BTC ends up being so constrained that there has to be a kind of physical resolution that does not even matter so much about what people think about the future, but then the explosion will cause a kind of piling on, too.  So the physical and the psychological will surely play off of one another, even when sometimes one or another might seem to be more of a driving factor under certain circumstances that are trying to be described or explained.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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 November 20, 2019, 07:47:59 PM

Do you even understand gresham's law?
Respect my Copernicus bro!   Everyone forgets Kopernik    give the guy at least some merits yo?
Jokes aside;
Anyhow, what seems to happen is the various powers that be in the bearwhale space push the BTC price down for as long as they can and as low as they can.
Why would you think "they" do it? Is it only in order to acquire bigger quantities of coins and profit hugely later on?
Or maybe there is something else I don't even consider as a reason for such speculation-action? Is this even a speculation mechanics or a new bread of something?

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 November 20, 2019, 08:33:55 PMMerited by poptok1 (1)

Do you even understand gresham's law?
Respect my Copernicus bro!   Everyone forgets Kopernik    give the guy at least some merits yo?
Jokes aside;

I don't even understand the Copernicus reference.

Anyhow, what seems to happen is the various powers that be in the bearwhale space push the BTC price down for as long as they can and as low as they can.
Why would you think "they" do it?

It's likely that we cannot exactly attribute meaning to overall market behavior.  Of course, there are motivations to make money and there are also motivations to attempt to destroy the asset, if possible.  So the negative motives and the positive motives balance out to a battle, and sometimes there can be profits in other areas that are made by keeping BTC low.. for example if BTC is a threat to your business model or even some governments (to the extent that they are able) might engage in tactics to attempt to push the price down through rulings, prosecutions, FUD spreading, etc.

Is it only in order to acquire bigger quantities of coins and profit hugely later on?

Sure there is likely some of that going on, too.

Or maybe there is something else I don't even consider as a reason for such speculation-action?

Of course, the motivations are going to be diverse, and surely frequently even the bearwhales might not understand how far they can push matters, and surely it is more profitable if they can dump early and cause a contagion in which others end up going along with it while they are slowly acquiring back their position without pushing the price up (which acquisition might take place OTC while dumping may occur on exchanges to cause the most negative influence as possible), and surely sometimes even the bearwhales lose control and may switch sides to start to buy when they figure that they are no longer able to push the price down.. the trend is your friend, as we know.

Is this even a speculation mechanics or a new bread of something?

There is a mixture of the employment of old tools, but of course, bitcoin and other crypto is bringing about some different dynamics in trading, too, including more abilities for laypeople to get in which contributes to more extremes and manipulators trying to take advantage of way broader amateur traders.  Of course, there is some wild, wild west aspect, too in terms of trying to figure out what the asset is and attempting to figure out whether it should be regulated or not, so the extent to which any regulation exists in bitcoin and other crypto is a developing area - that also creates some new dynamics that likely play out differently from a more mature market.

Certainly there remains differences of opinion (and some people are going to bet correctly and some will get it wrong) regarding whether bitcoin is an actually new asset class or if the old tools will apply, and furthermore, there is differences of opinion regarding whether the four year fractal patterns are good predictors of BTC's likely price performance, and also disagreements regarding whether bitcoin is in a s-curve exponential adoption curve including what stage of the curve it is in, if it happens to be in such curve.  Some folks will be right and others will not, but does not stop the ongoing attempts to battle and to attempt to physically force the BTC price to go much further than expected and for much longer than expected, but part of my own personal theory remains that status quo institutions and whales are having quite a difficult time to try to keep bitcoin prices down, and sure they might have some more tricks up their sleeves, perhaps? perhaps?

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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 November 20, 2019, 09:04:37 PMMerited by JayJuanGee (1)

even some governments (to the extent that they are able)
Yeap, this is the thing I wasn't taking in to consideration at all. Damn FED and his minions
Absolutely stellar response, thanks for the effort and about this Copernicus "joke", I just checked the Wikipedia and yes, it's there, just look at the end of first paragraph, bold text  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law
He's books were mostly on the forbidden list, that's why modern history forgot how great of an economist he was.
status quo institutions and whales are having quite a difficult time to try to keep bitcoin prices down
It's cool to read things like this, if it was true that would mean that we or rather satoshi, have already moved the scales a bit in our favour. Ah, another field where a battle with the forces of darkness parable fits like a glove.
Any ideas with what they can come up with next? The gov. I mean. More probable is "one world currency" or blockchain dollars?
I have heard some rumours that parts of EU are planed to move cashless in just one year form now... kinda scary.

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 November 20, 2019, 10:46:33 PMMerited by Jet Cash (5)

even some governments (to the extent that they are able)
Yeap, this is the thing I wasn't taking in to consideration at all. Damn FED and his minions
Absolutely stellar response, thanks for the effort and about this Copernicus "joke", I just checked the Wikipedia and yes, it's there, just look at the end of first paragraph, bold text  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law
He's books were mostly on the forbidden list, that's why modern history forgot how great of an economist he was.

I had not realized the Copernicus connection, and I suppose that sometimes little facts like that could be tests about how much of an expert someone is on a topic.  I am merely familiar with the general principle that people tend to be incentivized to spend their most shitty money first and to HODL their money that is most likely to go up in value or to maintain its value.  Makes a lot of sense, and surely many of us have become more enlightened on such topic from the diptwats who are suggesting that we should strive to make bitcoin more spendable as if making bitcoin more spendable should be amongst our primary concerns - which does not make logical sense, and even people who are without much education are going to gravitate towards following gresham like behaviors if they have any kind of appreciation of the comparative value retention attributes of any kinds of monies that they hold.   Of course, some people give it no thought, but anyone who consciously attempts to achieve the most bang for the buck will frequently subconsciously engage in these kinds of behaviors without anyone teaching them... about gresham or having to explain any of the underlying theories.

status quo institutions and whales are having quite a difficult time to try to keep bitcoin prices down
It's cool to read things like this, if it was true that would mean that we or rather satoshi, have already moved the scales a bit in our favour.

For sure there is already a certain high degree of victory, even if bitcoin were to get squashed into the ground from here on out, the idea has been birthed and the idea has also been shown to have some functionality, so in that regard, there is a certain segment of the population that have come to better understand how money works including being better able to distinguish between sound money practices and not so sound money practices, and these kinds of ideas get into the heads of a variety of people the longer that bitcoin stays around, which assisted to become more powerful by Schelling point principles.

Ah, another field where a battle with the forces of darkness parable fits like a glove.

I don't know about fitting like a glove, but there can be a tendency for matters to kind of work themselves out in a way in which individuals gravitate in a direction to make things happen, and some of the nice things about bitcoin happens to involve how a lot of the built in incentives have a great way of playing out, which causes a lot of people to conjecture that the balancing of incentives with code and difficulty adjustments and proof of work and monetization came from a lot of deep thought, rather than merely getting lucky, even though there might have been some aspects that were lucky, too.

Any ideas with what they can come up with next? The gov. I mean. More probable is "one world currency" or blockchain dollars?
I have heard some rumours that parts of EU are planed to move cashless in just one year form now... kinda scary.

I hate to go down the road of speculating about their various plays, whether it is government, financial institution, rich people because there are a combination of things that they can attempt, yet part of the problem still ends up being that bitcoin gives hardly any shits because it has been designed to prepare for these kinds of attack attempts, so lucky for us that bitcoin has gotten off of the ground, and the longer that it exists the stronger it becomes, getting back to Schelling points  - so surely, attacking bitcoin would have had greater likelihood of success to nip it in the bud 5 years ago or more - so even if there might be some successful efforts to burden people more and more and to try to attack bitcoin in various regulatory  or prohibition ways,  there might be success in getting the price to go down for even extended  periods of time, and so in that regard there will develop stronger underground systems and even wacamole issues because even governments are not able to cooperate to attempt to get what they want because they do not agree upon what they want, and that is part of the genius of the incentives built into bitcoin including the fact that some governments might need to begin to attempt to develop their mining and acquisition of bitcoins rather than trying to bash bitcoin or create nonsense competition projects that are  likely to get swallowed by BTC in the longrun anyhow.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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 November 21, 2019, 02:42:59 AM

I think the impact of bitcoin price movements which is very difficult for all of us to describe is indeed a problem in the world of cryptocurrency.
to become a global currency with movements like now maybe many new people will definitely not believe.
for my country still not too good at the present time, its development began to be abandoned because the way of thinking is different maybe
but I hope one day bitcoin can still compete with legitimate currencies.

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 November 21, 2019, 03:22:22 AM

What exchange/s are they using to determine the 90-day transaction volume of USD?  I'm concern about the legitimacy of the volume. We all know that the majority of BTC/USD pair is only wash trading since
the most major exchange is unregulated. Anyone can explain to me further details. Thanks in advance.

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 December 16, 2019, 04:37:47 AMLast edit: December 16, 2019, 05:36:20 AM by DanydeeMerited by Jet Cash (2)

I believe that in the case of Bitcoin, the velocity should be calculated using the quantity of coins that are apparently available and released for use. I believe this because Bitcoin means a variety of things to different people and organisation, and its capabilities are fairly complex.
my first thought is to go  to say that for a sustained velocity it needs a constantly new number of (new users/Interactions)..

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qwk
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Shitcoin Minimalist

 January 07, 2020, 10:45:18 PM

Here is a definition of the velocity of Bitcoin and a comparison with the M1 and M2 US dollar money stock.
This is a comparison of apples and pears.
If anything, the 21 million Bitcoins on the Bitcoin network are comparable to the monetary base, i.e. M0 of the US dollar.

In fact, I've reminisced in the past that for a realistic monetary theory of Bitcoin, one should assume the existence of some form of M1 and maybe even M2, M3 for Bitcoin as well.
In the case of the MtGox fractional reserve, said "Bitcoin M1" was actually on the order of half a million BTC larger than its M0.

And yes, I know I'm a heretic, and I've said "Yehova"

All free men, wherever they may live, can use Bitcoin, and, therefore, as a free man, I take pride in the words "Ich bin ein Bitcoiner!"
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 January 08, 2020, 11:45:21 AM

The first question I suppose is why is bitcoin worth anything at all. First it can have value as a medium of exchange, and second it can itself be a store of value.

I may be seeing things simplistically (I am seeing things simplistically - if there's one thing I know, it's that I don't know much) - but where are we right now? Bitcoin is not widely accepted in society as a medium of exchange. What can you buy with bitcoin? Not much. I can't go to the corner shop and buy a newspaper with it. This severely restricts the velocity, or how quickly bitcoin is circulating in the economy. It's not that bitcoin is accepted everywhere but no-one is using it, it's rather that society itself at the moment has a huge effect by enforcing a limit on what can be spent and where.

So bitcoin is not widely used as a medium of exchange. But people are still buying it. Why? Because they think it will be a medium of exchange in the future? Or because they think it will continue to rise in value? I would argue the rise in value is by far the major driver.

My amateurish conclusion then is that the velocity is not that relevant yet, as the opportunity just isn't there. We are still in the early days of crypto, before mass-adoption, we are buying bitcoin in order to hold it rather than to spend it, and velocity is relevant more as an indicator of the limits that society enforces on crypto rather than as an indicator of the performance of bitcoin itself.

Apologies if I've completely misunderstood what is being talked about - shoot me down if so!

JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?

 January 08, 2020, 04:13:39 PM

The first question I suppose is why is bitcoin worth anything at all. First it can have value as a medium of exchange, and second it can itself be a store of value.

I may be seeing things simplistically (I am seeing things simplistically - if there's one thing I know, it's that I don't know much) - but where are we right now? Bitcoin is not widely accepted in society as a medium of exchange. What can you buy with bitcoin? Not much. I can't go to the corner shop and buy a newspaper with it. This severely restricts the velocity, or how quickly bitcoin is circulating in the economy. It's not that bitcoin is accepted everywhere but no-one is using it, it's rather that society itself at the moment has a huge effect by enforcing a limit on what can be spent and where.

So bitcoin is not widely used as a medium of exchange. But people are still buying it. Why? Because they think it will be a medium of exchange in the future? Or because they think it will continue to rise in value? I would argue the rise in value is by far the major driver.

My amateurish conclusion then is that the velocity is not that relevant yet, as the opportunity just isn't there. We are still in the early days of crypto, before mass-adoption, we are buying bitcoin in order to hold it rather than to spend it, and velocity is relevant more as an indicator of the limits that society enforces on crypto rather than as an indicator of the performance of bitcoin itself.

Apologies if I've completely misunderstood what is being talked about - shoot me down if so!

Yeah.. you seem to be needed to be shot down.. especially if you believe that spending is necessary and you place that first, and if you actually look at bitcoin, there are a whole hell of a lot of HODLers who are just stacking away their bitcoin... which is also going to have affects on circulating supply that is available to be affecting the price, and the lower the circulating supply, because so many people are not moving their coins, then there will be more and more upwards pressures on price with whatever supply happens to be circulating.

Furthermore, there remains a considerable ongoing lack of incentive to spend bitcoin if it seems to be the most sound of money and there exist a lot of other less sound monies that can be spent... gresham's law 101....

Surely, if orange coin go up, then there will likely develop a whole hell of a lot more incentives for HODLers to take some of their coins out of storage and to put them into circulation... which will either stop the coin from going up in price or bring the price down, and we have so far seen in BTC's history that the speculative component and the ongoing relative lack of liquidity as compared to other longer existing investment assets, such as gold, real estate, stocks and bonds, and currencies, that the ups and downs in bitcoin are likely to continue to shoot past reasonableness... but still does not signify that bitcoin is NOT valuable as a storage of value, medium of exchange or unit of account, but it does seem to suggest that orange coin must go up in price a whole hell of a lot more in order to make it become a lot less difficult to be bouncing around with such ongoing violence.. likely another 100x increase in price will help in that lessening of volatility direction... It won't solve volatility completely because price discovery is still growing, but it will likely help.. and probably will take a couple more 4 year cycles to get another 100x increase from here.. though we never know for sure with bitcoin and if the buying pressures are keeping up in terms of ongoing increasing awareness of its value... as well as network effects systems continuing to build around it to keep up with price finding, too.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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