How can we take Bitcoin Talk back into the Bitcoin community?

[tranthidung]

ABSTRACT
(1) 50% of observed months have intra-month registered account range from 2311 to 27790 (the interquartile range);
(2) 50% of observed months have intra-month registered account above or below 10432 (the median);
(3) The intra-month registered account fell 91.6% from its all time high in 2017 at 238400 to 20046; whilst the bitcoin decreased nearly 83.9%.
(4) The demotion on Junior Members in September 2018 probably caused intra-month registered accounts fell considerbaly later months.
(5) The difference in means of before and after periods (cut-off timepoint is Sept. 2018) is -63.6%.

Time-series plot

I don't know where I snapshotted the image, due to lack of thread's author, LOL. Still found it and will post link of the thread later (if I can find it). If you can help, please help me to find the thread.
I actually spent around 15 minutes or more to check back the first 80 pages of Merit & new rank requirements topic. 80 pages made within 3 days after the start of merit system, most of them are pyramid quotes. Honestly, my fingers got hurted due to over-scrolling computer mouse, so I gave up for now. Wholy shit, pyramid quotes!
Scanning pages again, still not found on page #130.  

Someone else's thread similiarly describes what the time-series plot above shown.  

As the chart shown, total monthly registered accounts in recent months dropped dramatically to the median and mean of the year 2015.
I believe that it is right time to say "Thanks theymos, merit system works and actually effective control spammers!"

Basic statistics:
- Mean +/- standard deviation: 22200 +/- 34774
- Median (interquartile range): 10432 (2311 - 27790)
- Min - max: 3 - 238433.

Interquartile range (from p25 to p75 in raw result table)
Data interpretation:
- 50% of observed total monthly registered accounts (just assumed the dataset is for exactly monthly data) ranges from 2311 to 27790 (the interquartile range);
- 50% of observed months have total registered accounts above 10432 (the median), whilst the rest 50% of months have figures below 10432.

Code:

. tabstat regacc, s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s)

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      regacc |       112  22199.58  34773.29     10432    2310.5     27790         3    238433
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Data source was dumped by theymos there:

We're at a local minimum, but registrations jump around a lot:

Code:

+---------------------+---------------+
| 30day starting      | registrations |
+---------------------+---------------+
| 2009-11-02 00:00:00 |             3 |
| 2009-12-02 00:00:00 |             8 |
| 2010-01-01 00:00:00 |             8 |
| 2010-01-31 00:00:00 |            22 |
| 2010-03-02 00:00:00 |             5 |
| 2010-04-01 00:00:00 |            22 |
| 2010-05-01 00:00:00 |            15 |
| 2010-05-31 00:00:00 |            33 |
| 2010-06-30 00:00:00 |           325 |
| 2010-07-30 00:00:00 |           159 |
| 2010-08-29 00:00:00 |           148 |
| 2010-09-28 00:00:00 |           190 |
| 2010-10-28 00:00:00 |           204 |
| 2010-11-27 00:00:00 |           383 |
| 2010-12-27 00:00:00 |           384 |
| 2011-01-26 00:00:00 |           938 |
| 2011-02-25 00:00:00 |          2202 |
| 2011-03-27 00:00:00 |          2737 |
| 2011-04-26 00:00:00 |          4936 |
| 2011-05-26 00:00:00 |         14048 |
| 2011-06-25 00:00:00 |          6250 |
| 2011-07-25 00:00:00 |          3903 |
| 2011-08-24 00:00:00 |          2938 |
| 2011-09-23 00:00:00 |          1983 |
| 2011-10-23 00:00:00 |          1965 |
| 2011-11-22 00:00:00 |          1835 |
| 2011-12-22 00:00:00 |          1812 |
| 2012-01-21 00:00:00 |          2082 |
| 2012-02-20 00:00:00 |          1901 |
| 2012-03-21 00:00:00 |          2158 |
| 2012-04-20 00:00:00 |          1969 |
| 2012-05-20 00:00:00 |          2057 |
| 2012-06-19 00:00:00 |          2040 |
| 2012-07-19 00:00:00 |          2145 |
| 2012-08-18 00:00:00 |          2419 |
| 2012-09-17 00:00:00 |          2661 |
| 2012-10-17 00:00:00 |          2958 |
| 2012-11-16 00:00:00 |          2763 |
| 2012-12-16 00:00:00 |          2611 |
| 2013-01-15 00:00:00 |          3320 |
| 2013-02-14 00:00:00 |          4933 |
| 2013-03-16 00:00:00 |         13816 |
| 2013-04-15 00:00:00 |         18162 |
| 2013-05-15 00:00:00 |         11318 |
| 2013-06-14 00:00:00 |          8095 |
| 2013-07-14 00:00:00 |          6703 |
| 2013-08-13 00:00:00 |          5505 |
| 2013-09-12 00:00:00 |          4137 |
| 2013-10-12 00:00:00 |          5632 |
| 2013-11-11 00:00:00 |         26804 |
| 2013-12-11 00:00:00 |         28776 |
| 2014-01-10 00:00:00 |         29576 |
| 2014-02-09 00:00:00 |         29839 |
| 2014-03-11 00:00:00 |         22534 |
| 2014-04-10 00:00:00 |         18065 |
| 2014-05-10 00:00:00 |         13071 |
| 2014-06-09 00:00:00 |         12180 |
| 2014-07-09 00:00:00 |         10561 |
| 2014-08-08 00:00:00 |         10925 |
| 2014-09-07 00:00:00 |          9418 |
| 2014-10-07 00:00:00 |          8218 |
| 2014-11-06 00:00:00 |          7974 |
| 2014-12-06 00:00:00 |          8136 |
| 2015-01-05 00:00:00 |         23256 |
| 2015-02-04 00:00:00 |         36913 |
| 2015-03-06 00:00:00 |         33500 |
| 2015-04-05 00:00:00 |          8450 |
| 2015-05-05 00:00:00 |          8577 |
| 2015-06-04 00:00:00 |         10303 |
| 2015-07-04 00:00:00 |         11773 |
| 2015-08-03 00:00:00 |          9725 |
| 2015-09-02 00:00:00 |          7644 |
| 2015-10-02 00:00:00 |         68601 |
| 2015-11-01 00:00:00 |         44059 |
| 2015-12-01 00:00:00 |         39244 |
| 2015-12-31 00:00:00 |         37106 |
| 2016-01-30 00:00:00 |         42233 |
| 2016-02-29 00:00:00 |         24213 |
| 2016-03-30 00:00:00 |         19336 |
| 2016-04-29 00:00:00 |         16031 |
| 2016-05-29 00:00:00 |         19935 |
| 2016-06-28 00:00:00 |         12582 |
| 2016-07-28 00:00:00 |         10646 |
| 2016-08-27 00:00:00 |          9986 |
| 2016-09-26 00:00:00 |          9844 |
| 2016-10-26 00:00:00 |         10718 |
| 2016-11-25 00:00:00 |         10691 |
| 2016-12-25 00:00:00 |         12429 |
| 2017-01-24 00:00:00 |         13664 |
| 2017-02-23 00:00:00 |         13893 |
| 2017-03-25 00:00:00 |         15276 |
| 2017-04-24 00:00:00 |         20585 |
| 2017-05-24 00:00:00 |         31381 |
| 2017-06-23 00:00:00 |         35866 |
| 2017-07-23 00:00:00 |         40726 |
| 2017-08-22 00:00:00 |         45026 |
| 2017-09-21 00:00:00 |         70477 |
| 2017-10-21 00:00:00 |         95568 |
| 2017-11-20 00:00:00 |        144762 |
| 2017-12-20 00:00:00 |        238433 |
| 2018-01-19 00:00:00 |        136872 |
| 2018-02-18 00:00:00 |        107237 |
| 2018-03-20 00:00:00 |         87087 |
| 2018-04-19 00:00:00 |         89659 |
| 2018-05-19 00:00:00 |         83999 |
| 2018-06-18 00:00:00 |         72430 |
| 2018-07-18 00:00:00 |         61360 |
| 2018-08-17 00:00:00 |         43451 |
| 2018-09-16 00:00:00 |         43516 |
| 2018-10-16 00:00:00 |         35335 |
| 2018-11-15 00:00:00 |         31502 |
| 2018-12-15 00:00:00 |         20733 |
| 2019-01-14 00:00:00 |         20046 |
| 2019-02-13 00:00:00 |          2763 | [PARTIAL PERIOD]
+---------------------+---------------+

Statistics over years
In both medians and means, the year of 2018 has been the highest year with its median and mean of monthly registered accounts are 66895 and 64782, respectively.

- The median means that 50% of months in 2018 have total registered accounts above 66895 or below 66895.
- The interquartile range for 2018 is 38393 to 88373. It means 50% of months in 2018 have figures in range from 38393 to 88373.
I always use median and interquartile range for descriptive statistics because they automatically exclude effects of outliers data points.

Code:

. tabstat regacc year10 year11 year12 year13 year14 year15 year16 year17 year18, ///
>         s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s)

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      regacc |       112  22199.58  34773.29     10432    2310.5     27790         3    238433
      year10 |        13       146  144.3185       148        22       204         5       384
      year11 |        12  3795.583  3560.192    2469.5      1900    4419.5       938     14048
      year12 |        12  2313.667    353.35    2151.5    2048.5      2636      1901      2958
      year13 |        12  11433.42   8798.91      7399      5219     15989      3320     28776
      year14 |        12  15041.42  8092.689   11552.5      8818   20299.5      7974     29839
      year15 |        12  24992.25  19299.52   17514.5      9151   37009.5      7644     68601
      year16 |        12  16553.67  9350.784   12505.5   10668.5   19635.5      9844     42233
      year17 |        12  63804.75  67452.29     38296   17930.5   83022.5     13664    238433
      year18 |        12  67431.75  34995.66     66895     38393     88373     20733    136872
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Percent changes of intra-month registered account:
The figures decreased 91.6% when bitcoin fell 83.9%.
It gives us a potential causal inference that implementation of merit system and new rank requirements have bigger effects than the falls of bitcoin.
One more finding, the intra-month figures after September of 2018 (Junior Member demotions) fell significantly than the before period. I think it make sense.

Detail calculation presented below.

Code:

* BTC price
. di (19800-3190)*100/19800
83.888889
* Intra-month registered accounts
. di (238400-20046)*100/238400
91.591443

The means of before and after Sept. 2018 are 80179 and 29190 (respectively)
The percent of difference is 63.6%

Code:

. tabstat before after, s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s)

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      before |         9     80179  30633.52     83999     61360     89659     41451    136872
       after |         3     29190  7570.575     31502     20733     35335     20733     35335
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Code:

. di (80179-29190)*100/80179
63.593959

I would be nice if theymos dumps additional data for last three months, since 13/2/2019. It's interesting to see what's going on last three months when general market, and bitcoin in particular recovered very well from their bottoms.

[1713298909]

1713298909

[BlockchainBoyyy]

Bitcoin Talk was created by Satoshi Nakamoto ( and others ) to promote awareness of Bitcoin. It was extremely successful, and Bitcoin is now a major force in banking and the Internet. Unfortunately it doesn't seem that BT has grown with it, and many of the major names seem to have abandoned the forum, or have never joined. This was brought home to me when I watched this video -
Satoshi Nakamoto: The Mysterious Founder of Bitcoin

I found the video interesting, although it includes a number of items with which I would disagree. It includes a reference to Reddit, but no mention of Bitcoin Talk - the forum that started the Bitcoin revolution. Is this because mainstream Bitcoin users and developers are not aware of the forum, or that they feel it is no longer relevant?

I'd like to see Bitcoin Talk regain its position as a significant contributor to the growth and acceptance of Bitcoin. What can I/we do to achieve this?

The first thing we can do is not ban people unless they are clearly spamming or scamming. 

How can we take Bitcoin Talk back into the Bitcoin community?
(DELETE THE MODS)

[Coyster]

The first thing we can do is not ban people unless they are clearly spamming or scamming. 

No one gets banned for scam or spam, those offences are corrected by the trust system(flag system),as such users are given a red trust(trust flag),while excessive spam leads to the account being nuked or temp ban, 7 days or so.

How can we take Bitcoin Talk back into the Bitcoin community?
(DELETE THE MODS)

Mods are not topics or threads that gets deleted, they're humans.

[OgNasty]

Support Bitcointalk community Bitcoin projects.

[Gyrsur]

release the new forum software and everything will get fine. 

[amishmanish]

Everyone is always organizing to rally against something, and that's where the problem with these platforms shows itself, it enforces conformity. Conformists are easy to control and manipulate.

This isn't just a problem with those social media platforms. Even the forum enforces conformity. For example, everyone just keeps praising and keeps saying good things about the Lightning Network despite the fact that LN is still not finding any users and is becoming over-engineered all the time.
There is desperate lack of genuine criticism even here at the forum because most of the older members wearing the sigs aren't discussing technical details but just commenting on the validity of LN at all times. These people have no idea that how actually bitcoin will scale. The ideas that get thrown around now simply do not have the same weight as they are more philosophical than technical.

That is where the answer to JetsCash's question is. If you want to bring the mojo back, you have to make it worthwhile for the devs to contribute. Most of the earliest devs are on payroll with Blockstream or other organizations. Nothing wrong in that. The lesson is that people who actually benefited from the forum should contribute to projects that aim to further bitcoin adoption.

Form a hierarchy of committed and technically sound people to guide projects. The funding should come from people who have benefited from being early adopters. Most of that crowd has moved out of the forum and are busy with their businesses etc. like Cobra pointed out. Find the champions.

[Cøbra]

Everyone is always organizing to rally against something, and that's where the problem with these platforms shows itself, it enforces conformity. Conformists are easy to control and manipulate.

This isn't just a problem with those social media platforms. Even the forum enforces conformity. For example, everyone just keeps praising and keeps saying good things about the Lightning Network despite the fact that LN is still not finding any users and is becoming over-engineered all the time.
There is desperate lack of genuine criticism even here at the forum because most of the older members wearing the sigs aren't discussing technical details but just commenting on the validity of LN at all times.

The forum doesn't enforce conformity. On social media platforms if you express the right opinions and cater to specific echo chambers, you get followers and build visibility as a reward. You delude yourself into believing you are leading thought, when in reality you are just a slave to the opinions of your followers, who will destroy you without mercy the moment you deviate from allowed thought. On the forum your opinions are always visible to readers. You don't need to have users on the forum following you to see your posts, much to the dismay of everyone if what you post is nonsense. Now internet communities trend more towards self-censoring filter bubbles, with people getting even crazier and intolerant of each other because they've gotten so used to being around like-minded folks that different opinions are especially more offensive and egregious than before.

LN is technically impressive, but its success depends on people seeing Bitcoin as cash, which nobody seems to want to do because Bitcoin is just perceived as a tool for speculative investment. There was a period where if LN was ready and practical, maybe around 2014, momentum could have picked up to have LN succeed in payments largely due to the Bitcoin community at the time being much more supportive of spending Bitcoin and companies being interested and open. But since then the community has become way too greedy to be able to create an actual Bitcoin economy.