[2019 - 11- 25] The 4 Possible Bitcoin Scenarios In The Long Run

[magneto]

Bitcoin becomes a reserve currency in the world

This scenario is obviously ideal, but I don't think that this is likely given the time constraints. Especially with central banks, they aren't likely to adopt something that is decentralised as their reserve currencies, even though it is a logical thing to do to protect against external financial contagion.

I do think, however, that adoption levels will continue to increase in spite of what regulators seem to have against BTC.

A grassroot movement like this won't just be forgotten or abandoned, because of the sheer amount of people that is backing it, and not just one institution holding it together.

[richardsNY]

anything could happen though, including a great big nothingburger

What is your take on the current bearish reversal? Have any bearish reversals ever made you uncomfortable or you don't care because you rely on the long term potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 and possibly higher?

[Carlton Banks]

What is your take on the current bearish reversal? Have any bearish reversals ever made you uncomfortable or you don't care because you rely on the long term potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 and possibly higher?

you get more indifferent after experiencing a dozen of these events. The time when $250 capitulated at $70, phew, I was thinking "some super bad news could really squash the whole thing", but fortunately it turned around both very assertively and fast.

Nowadays, any movement is pretty irrelevant to me. I spend BTC when I need stuff, not when economics (or economists) suggests I should (in your face, Gresham!) The more I learn about how Bitcoin's fundamentals hold it together (and future plans to strengthen it), the less concerned I am about a black swan situation wiping it out. Which is obviously always possible, but it'll be far easier to put the whole thing down to experience in that event. I'll be proud and lucky to have been a part of a great part of history if so, I mean think on that, this is a genuinely historic phenomenon that'll actually appear in cultural dissemination years from now, whether it succeeds long term or not. And it's been said from very early on, if Bitcoin fails, cryptocurrency will still succeed, you can definitely "bank" on that

[hatshepsut93]

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The first three scenarios are really just the one same "moon" scenario described in different words. It would be more interesting if they explored more possibilities, like Bitcoin breaking its crazy cycles and switching to slow but predictable growth, or even Bitcoin relatively stabilizing at some point not far from where we are. IMO, both moon and doom aren't as likely as they were before - today's uncertainty is not the uncertainty of the early days.

[malevolent]

Sure, but that's not the popular perception. People don't associate rising cost of living with cash vs. plastic/mobile. They may bitch about the price of rent and food increasing but they certainly aren't complaining about going cashless. They want to go cashless. Merchants and black marketers love cash but mainstream consumers have us all by the balls in that regard.

I don't foresee anyone putting up much of a fight against the incoming cash restrictions we're seeing around the world.

Ask anyone who makes or supplements their income with under the table work (or anyone who doesn't declare their entire income) what are their thoughts on cashlessness. They are a non-insignificant group of voters.

I've heard a few people voice the dystopian possibilities and I don't think they had much or any awareness of crypto.

People or their families who were oppressed by far-right or far-left regimes whose work was easier thanks to public or state-owned records will also often be skeptical of going full cashless. Journalists (especially investigative ones) and people involved in politics should too be wary.