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Author Topic: Does halving really create deflation?  (Read 585 times)
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November 27, 2019, 02:49:37 PM
 #21

Thanks for defining it clearly. But still it is surprising to see the prices going down so steeply, with the next block reward halving only a few months away. The user base is increasing at a good pace, and with inflation at such low levels, ideally we should be witnessing a sharp jump in the exchange rates. But quite the opposite is happening right now.

It only counts when there's demand. If there's little to no demand then nothing and no one can influence the price in a positive and decisive direction. When demand is really crap then any inflation at all is going to hurt the price. The coins keep on coming with fewer people willing to pay for them.

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November 27, 2019, 03:12:56 PM
 #22


Maybe we will know it later after halving when miners are going to have to seek profit versus the amount of energy they spent getting only 6.5BTC. Prices will appreciate through how much the sellers are going to bid while scarcity of supply kicks. I'm still wondering despite how much crypto news were spread all over social media sites, the demands are not increasing. We are all waiting for that deflation to happen, and I guess right now there are more manipulators who keeps preventing it yet to happen.

 
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November 27, 2019, 03:16:06 PM
 #23

Deflation is not caused by halving (I mean maybe it is but that is not the topic) deflation is created because in reality bitcoin gets higher in value since there is less of it all the time.

There are always some people who send bitcoin to some unknown wallet or somewhere wrong and it is gone forever, people always say the max bitcoin there will be is 21 million but there must be at least a million bitcoin that is gone already to places that is no longer in use, sure if those people ever comeback they will be able to use it but more often than not there are not that many people that come back to it. So long story short deflation does exist but it is not because halving, halving only excels it and that's it, there is a deflation because instead of printing dollars like deal, we lose bitcoins instead.

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November 27, 2019, 03:33:36 PM
 #24

Compared to the traditional economy when printing cash, immediate inflation is generated, bitcoin represents a deflationary economy when placed in direct contrast to this scenario and is able to combat inflation, see the case of Venezuela, Argentina, Chile.

 When Bitcoin halving occurs, just by pure logic, the value should increase, it may not happen instantly because the market even if it is fast can take, but in the long term it will be seen that that will be the behavior, only the fact that it has a limited supply is an imperative reason for it to be valued, if the cash were of limited naturalization it would never lose value, Bitcoin may fall in price, but not its value, it is not the same price as the value.

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November 27, 2019, 03:35:18 PM
Merited by LUCKMCFLY (1)
 #25

This is what I meant in my above post:

The halving means less inflation. There's deffo no deflation on the cards.
Read:
Quote
The halving means less inflationmoney supply growth. There's deffo no deflation money supply reduction on the cards.


Money growth in bitcoin protocol is predetermined in code.


This one will be a biggie because the inflation will fall below 2% which is often the figure of a decently managed normal economy.
<...>

Read:
Quote
This one will be a biggie because the inflation money supply growth will fall below 2% which is often the figure of a decently managed normal economy.
<...>

Well, actually money growth in US is around 6% and rising, never have been below 2% in the last 30 years (except a single read).
Inflation in US  is about 2%, in the same ballpark of many other economies.

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November 27, 2019, 03:59:07 PM
 #26

To my opinion this is also another theory that isn't proved. The only thing that really influence the price is supply and demand ratio and everything else are side effects.
Halving might have certain effect but that is usualy not significant and long lasting.

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November 27, 2019, 04:26:35 PM
 #27

To my opinion this is also another theory that isn't proved. The only thing that really influence the price is supply and demand ratio and everything else are side effects.
Halving might have certain effect but that is usualy not significant and long lasting.
Halving is litelrally the ONLY factor influencing the supply of bitcoin.

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November 27, 2019, 04:52:02 PM
 #28

To my opinion this is also another theory that isn't proved. The only thing that really influence the price is supply and demand ratio and everything else are side effects.
Halving might have certain effect but that is usualy not significant and long lasting.

If you are looking at the price of the bitcoin, we are now experience a crisis that we called deflation that the cost of the coin is decreasing. It affects the market; there are a lot of reasons why it touches on the market. According to those theories, because of the persons who have the most substantial amount of the bitcoin, they are holding their coins that affect the supply and demand we called them "whales." In the previous year, the bitcoin is coming from the lower value, then decreasing every time. This process usually is part of the cryptocurrency.

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November 27, 2019, 05:08:28 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)
 #29

Halving is litelrally the ONLY factor influencing the supply of bitcoin.
LOL, chill mate Grin

We know that inflation != money supply growth, that is enough... No need to get agitated for public misconception. Just chill and remind the public occasionally, so that we don't get a heart attack.

By the way, lost BTC also affects the BTC total supply, but might be not that significant since Satoshi said it could be considered as a bonus.

Quote
Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.
Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=198.msg1647#msg1647

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November 27, 2019, 05:52:17 PM
 #30

When you do something that increase the value of your currency, it directly influence the buying power of that currency. So with inflation your

currency lose some buying power and you can buy less goods for the same amount of currency that you had before it went down. The Halving is

supposed to increase scarcity of available coins and when something is scares, it normally goes up in value. (If the demand stays the same)

There are many factors influencing the impact of the Halving, but in most instances the price goes slightly upward after a Halving occurred.

 
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November 27, 2019, 06:58:36 PM
 #31

So in your opinion, deflation will not happen now, but when the supply of bitcoin is fully mined and the demand is high, then deflation will occur?

Deflation will occur when the number of new coins being minted < the number of coins being lost. That point in time technically can't be known since nobody knows for sure when coins have been lost. However, it's likely to take place many decades before the supply is fully distributed.

By 2070, there will only be ~80 new coins minted per year. It's likely Bitcoin will be deflationary by this point, and perhaps a good deal sooner.

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November 27, 2019, 07:02:22 PM
 #32

Halving is litelrally the ONLY factor influencing the supply of bitcoin.

I reckon people mix up the concepts of supply and production too often. There's always enough supply if the price is right. Mined coins are likely to be more available than existing coins but many people are sitting on those existing coins until temptation strikes.

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November 27, 2019, 07:07:49 PM
 #33

Halving is litelrally the ONLY factor influencing the supply of bitcoin.
LOL, chill mate Grin
<...>

I am chill, I am the king of chill!
Lol, I didn’t want to nitpick or seem angry. But I just wanted to make sure everyone knows what we are talking about without mixing concept!

Anyway, point taken!

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November 28, 2019, 12:49:32 AM
 #34

hey guys, i'm quite serious on this topic because of the confusing people when talking about Bitcoin "deflation". As far as I understand, the deflation is that goods are cheaper than they are on time or because there is no need to buy goods or the supply of money gets lower.
So for Bitcoin, why is there a deflation? Although I know that miners will find it harder to mine bitcoins after every Halving event, the value of our goods stays the same and is based on fiat money. Bitcoin's price is still being manipulated and it is not necessarily a strong growth after halving. or the best example is Litecoin. after halving, its price is halved instead of rising higher.
So, the question is, does the Halving event actually cause deflation, or is it just some bullshit theory?
Ps: I highly appreciate the comments with sincere contributions. Thanks


Bitcoins price deflation happens every second day when price of Bitcoin goes up compared to USD. Inflation happens next day when price goes back down.  
Emission inflation of Bitcoin is currently around 3.5% and at halving will go to 1.8%. There is no emission deflation. Supply of Bitcoins is inflating 3.5% a year.  

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November 28, 2019, 01:11:09 AM
 #35

As such there should not be a problem of deflation with Bitcoin, because the supply is increasing and not decreasing. Deflation can only happen if there is a decline in the total supply. That is theoretically possible, given the large number of lost coins (i.e coins that can't be spent, because no one is having the private key to access them). People are more careful with the private keys, but even now a lot of coins are getting unusable every month, either due to deaths (such as the case of Gerald Cotton) or due to carelessness.

 
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November 28, 2019, 01:56:37 AM
 #36

As such there should not be a problem of deflation with Bitcoin, because the supply is increasing and not decreasing. Deflation can only happen if there is a decline in the total supply. That is theoretically possible, given the large number of lost coins (i.e coins that can't be spent, because no one is having the private key to access them). People are more careful with the private keys, but even now a lot of coins are getting unusable every month, either due to deaths (such as the case of Gerald Cotton) or due to carelessness.

In that case of deaths, of course untouched coins remained non moving because it's still present in the circulation. Good thing for bitcoin's supply that it was still growing because of those reasons. In case there's a secondary owner of that private access, that's the time those coins will be potentially moving and being spent if ever the main owner will be gone. Always keep the access keys secure, and  don't even expose that to anyone whose cannot be trusted.

 
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November 28, 2019, 02:22:11 AM
 #37

Even if the demand for bitcoin remain stable, I wouldn't really say that halvings cause deflation for it. Yes, there would be less bitcoins mined but it's still adding new bitcoins into circulation. Main difference is unlike fiat, you can just pump new bitcoins into circulation to increase inflation so in a sense, yes it's the opposite of inflation.

So in your opinion, deflation will not happen now, but when the supply of bitcoin is fully mined and the demand is high, then deflation will occur?

Deflation will occur when the number of new coins being minted < the number of coins being lost. That point in time technically can't be known since nobody knows for sure when coins have been lost. However, it's likely to take place many decades before the supply is fully distributed.

By 2070, there will only be ~80 new coins minted per year. It's likely Bitcoin will be deflationary by this point, and perhaps a good deal sooner.

I think many of the bitcoins lost was from its first decade, when people still don't take it seriously. I know someone who got gifted a paper wallet which he promptly lost because he wasn't thinking much about it. Then he saw bitcoin in the news around 2016 and realized he used to have some.

These days with people being more careful about handling them, simple errors like forgetting the password to an email/exchange would probably be fewer and there is less and less bitcoin getting "lost".

 
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November 28, 2019, 03:47:14 AM
 #38

depends on the coin itself, for example if shitcoin does half It will not give any effect because initially it's a coin that is not worth it, I do not know the case that occurs in LTC.
Then for manipulation if it is true the price of the coin is controlled then halving will not be too influential.
Inflation makes the value of money to fall, while halving is the opposite.

 
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November 28, 2019, 04:09:00 AM
 #39

hey guys, i'm quite serious on this topic because of the confusing people when talking about Bitcoin "deflation". As far as I understand, the deflation is that goods are cheaper than they are on time or because there is no need to buy goods or the supply of money gets lower.
So for Bitcoin, why is there a deflation? Although I know that miners will find it harder to mine bitcoins after every Halving event, the value of our goods stays the same and is based on fiat money. Bitcoin's price is still being manipulated and it is not necessarily a strong growth after halving. or the best example is Litecoin. after halving, its price is halved instead of rising higher.
So, the question is, does the Halving event actually cause deflation, or is it just some bullshit theory?
Ps: I highly appreciate the comments with sincere contributions. Thanks
Still not have good effect with bitcoin halving at next year, bitcoin price still down and keep low day by day. I think when bitcoin halving day come several weeks later will have good and positive impact for bitcoin raise with higher price, maybe wait again for three months later to see bitcoin and altcoin back to higher price and give bitcoin member motivate for investing again with crypto.
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November 28, 2019, 05:53:52 AM
 #40

Actually I think it depends on the direct community at that time halving can actually create inflation too, it can shoot up the prices , if in the market you saw something that you like and needed and there is only one left and there are like 5 people ,you guys are ofcourse gonna fight for it and..it would actually increase the value of that particular thing ; this could go both ways in my opinion .
But instead for bitcoins it was the bad one apparently Cry
Hopefully in the upcoming days it will recover.



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