[FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC]

[1miau]

[Closed for new participants]

Instead of guessing the last numbers of a random block hash or the BTC-price at a defined date you need to guess Bitcoin’s first block in 2020, the next decade which will hopefully be a good one for BTC.
I’ve chosen that special type of giveaway to encourage users doing research about Bitcoin’s block creation process. Predicting a block mined at a specified time can be anticipated to a certain degree when you know about the factors how block generation process is done. Important questions related to this giveaway:
- How many blocks are generated per hour?
- What does mining difficulty mean?
- What’s a mining difficulty adjustment?
- When are such adjustments done?
- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?
…

For detailed explanations how you calculated your nominated number, I might give some Merit in addition.
Of course, it requires a good portion of luck because all the factors are very volatile and until 2020 it’s still a long way to go.


To win this giveaway you have to predict the first block mined in 2020. The one coming closest will win the prize. Should we get a tie, the money will be divided equally. Relevant time is CET (Berlin time) after 23.59.59.


First place: 6 mBTC:  

______________	________	________
1miau	5 mBTC	paid
Royse777	1 mBTC	paid

Second place: 3.5 mBTC:

______________	________	________
1miau	2.5 mBTC	paid
Royse777	1 mBTC	paid

If someone wants to donate a few mBTC to the prize pool, feel free to leave a post.
Every donator sends his allocated amount directly to the winners after it has published its address in 2020.


Rules (Please read! If you are caught not reading the rules, I reserve the right to reject you):

• Each user can submit 1 number.
• You are not allowed to edit your post later. Once on the list, your number is set, so choose carefully!
• To prevent cheating, your account needs to have at least 5 earned Merit, airdropped Merit doesn’t count.
• Don’t have valid negative trust from DT on your account (negative trust: more negative feedback than positive feedback).
• One account per person, please be honest. If someone uses multiple accounts to abuse my giveaway and I catch you, you and your alts will get negative trust.
• The deadline for participation is 06.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time) 08.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time).

Note: it can take a while until I’ve time to edit the list.

Good luck everyone!  

[1713584794]

1713584794

[1miau]

Participants

__________	______________
610,357	UserU
610,375	1miau
610,479	LoyceV
610,516	Mashfiqun
610,535	RapTarX
610,538	HCP
610,540	Royse777
610,542	pooya87
610,562	Souri
610,572	naska21
610,595	hanspeter77
610,600	Swordsoffreedom
610,610	haloxon
610,614	Upgrade00
610,616	Scheede
610,626	SFR10
610,637	DdmrDdmr
610,640	hosseinimr93
610,668	nelson4lov
610,699	Phil_S
610,720	crwth
610,770	GazetaBitcoin
610,777	micgoossens
610,800	mikeywith
610,910	Last of the V8s

[AB de Royse777]

Sorry to interrupt but it really looks like a topic for games and rounds :-)

Ps: I will delete this post after 24 hours

By the way good initiative. I can put 2mBTC. So get me in, in something.

[1miau]

Sorry to interrupt but it really looks like a topic for games and rounds :-)

Ps: I will delete this post after 24 hours

Thanks for the feedback. I've intentionally placed it in Beginners and Help to encourage users doing research about Bitcoin's block generation process and I'll reward good explanations with Merit. If a moderator decides to move it to games and rounds I'm not sure if participants consider the educational aspect but rather spam just a number to participate. ^^

By the way good initiative. I can put 2mBTC. So get me in, in something.

Much appreciated. 
The 2 mBTC should be splitted equally for 1st and 2nd place?

First place: 6 mBTC: 

______________	________
1miau	5 mBTC
Royse777	1 mBTC

Second place: 3.5 mBTC:

______________	________
1miau	2.5 mBTC
Royse777	1 mBTC

[AB de Royse777]

Much appreciated. 
The 2 mBTC should be splitted equally for 1st and 2nd place?

First place: 6 mBTC: 

______________	________
1miau	5 mBTC
Royse777	1 mBTC

Second place: 3.5 mBTC:

______________	________
1miau	2.5 mBTC
Royse777	1 mBTC

Fine with it.

Please don't forget to PM me in case if I forget about this. Not going to active the notification coz it will boombared my inbox lol.
Good luck to the participants.

[1miau]

Fine with it.

+1

Please don't forget to PM me in case if I forget about this. Not going to active the notification coz it will boombared my inbox lol.
Good luck to the participants.

Alright 
And don't forget to nominate a number to be in for the prize. 

[HCP]

I'll take the "easy" route...

610538


For the benefit of others, I'll explain how I derived that value.

Basically... time to the CET midnight cutoff = 30 days, 20 hours 37 mins => (((30 * 24) + 20) * 60) + 37) minutes => 44437 minutes until the midnight cutoff... "Average" desired blocktime is 10 minutes/block... so 44437/10 => 4443.7 blocks should be mined before that time. Current block height is 606095... so 606095 + 4443 = 610538.

This ignores a LOT of variables mentioned in the OP, like difficulty adjustments etc... but I'm lazy and wanted to force others to do the hard work

[RapTarX]

The probable first block for of 2020 will be 610535
As per the normal calculation, we have 144 blocks each day. It's almost 6:00 AM CET (Edit- It was when I started writing this post, it took me almost 30 minutes to write this post.)
We have 30 days & 18 hours to go.
30*144 + 18*6 = 4428
The current block is 606110
Probable block will be 610538 but I have reduced 3 blocks because current block was mined almost 26 minutes ago.
My prediction- 610535

- How many blocks are generated per hour?
- What does mining difficulty mean?
- What’s a mining difficulty adjustment?
- When are such adjustments done?
- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?

I'm very much newbie & have almost zero knowledge on mining. Had some researched & I would like to assist newbie so that they can understand how things happen.
- 144 blocks are generated per day, so 144÷24= 6 blocks per hour. It can be lower as well sometimes or even higher. That's why we say average block time is 10 minutes.
- Mining difficulty is measurement of generating of a block. I'm confused here to be honest.
- To keep up the average block times of 10 minutes, mining adjustment happen which ensure the emission rate of bitcoin are not oncreasing/decreasing. For instance; maintaining 144 blocks = maintaining 144*12.5=1800 BTC per day.
- On every 2016 blocks, mining adjustment happen.
- When BTC price increases, number of miners also increases; as a result the difficulty also increases. Because of many miners into the process, I guess block generation get easy. Confused again
I have taken some info from a thread for learning the 5th number question.
Thread- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2344801.0

[Upgrade00]

@RaptarX has explained most of the questions already. On the topic of mining difficulty; to my understanding, it is the level of difficulty in finding a block. Miners are required to solve complex computing work, this is the mining difficulty.
That's why it's run on the PoW algorithm; Proof of Work, the computing work verifies the block and also prevents and malicious attempts on the chain. The mining difficulty is adjusted to maintain the number of bitcoins created on average. The difficulty could be increased or decreased. It is done every 2016 blocks

- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?

Miners earn a fixed number of bitcoins per block created, regardless of the value of bitcoins at that point. A decrease or increase in price would affect their reward. If the price increases, mining becomes more profitable and attracts more miners and this increases the blocks created, and the mining difficulty is adjusted to balance the rate, so only the miners with the best mining rigs can find blocks. So the cost of mining increases.
Also if the price drops, mining becomes less profitable and miners could drop out reducing the competition and the rate at which blocks are found, the mining difficulty would be reduced, this reduces the cost of mining. So the existing rigs find blocks faster.

In my opinion, the price of Bitcoin and the mining difficulty are interdependent and balance each other.

[Upgrade00]

I'm making a new post as I've already edited my current post and do not want to edit my number into it.
There's 30 days and 14 hours left till 2020. So: (30 x 24) + 14.44 = 734. in minutes = 734.44 x 60 = 44040
On average a block is mines every 10 minutes, although some sites average it to 9.5 minutes, in the coming four weeks I'll leave the average at 9.8 minutes.
So, 44040/9.8 = 4493.9 blocks
Current block height: 606120, adding 4493.9 ~ 610,614

I'm a newbie, so this is a wild prediction, also there is a little time irregularity due to posting time.

[Souri]

I am picking 610.562 as it is the rounded average guess of all the participants of this game in the German section.

[1miau]

I'm very much newbie & have almost zero knowledge on mining. Had some researched & I would like to assist newbie so that they can understand how things happen.
- 144 blocks are generated per day, so 144÷24= 6 blocks per hour. It can be lower as well sometimes or even higher. That's why we say average block time is 10 minutes.
- Mining difficulty is measurement of generating of a block. I'm confused here to be honest.
- To keep up the average block times of 10 minutes, mining adjustment happen which ensure the emission rate of bitcoin are not oncreasing/decreasing. For instance; maintaining 144 blocks = maintaining 144*12.5=1800 BTC per day.
- On every 2016 blocks, mining adjustment happen.
- When BTC price increases, number of miners also increases; as a result the difficulty also increases. Because of many miners into the process, I guess block generation get easy. Confused again
I have taken some info from a thread for learning the 5th number question.
Thread- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2344801.0

No need to be confused, good explanation.
More miners = more hashrate = more blocks produced until the next difficulty adjustment (difficulty will be increased to keep the blocktime of 10 minutes in average)
Less miners = less hashrate = less blocks produced until the next difficulty adjustment (difficulty will be decreased to keep the blocktime of 10 minutes in average)

@RaptarX has explained most of the questions already. On the topic of mining difficulty; to my understanding, it is the level of difficulty in finding a block. Miners are required to solve complex computing work, this is the mining difficulty.
That's why it's run on the PoW algorithm; Proof of Work, the computing work verifies the block and also prevents and malicious attempts on the chain. The mining difficulty is adjusted to maintain the number of bitcoins created on average. The difficulty could be increased or decreased. It is done every 2016 blocks

Miners earn a fixed number of bitcoins per block created, regardless of the value of bitcoins at that point. A decrease or increase in price would affect their reward. If the price increases, mining becomes more profitable and attracts more miners and this increases the blocks created, and the mining difficulty is adjusted to balance the rate, so only the miners with the best mining rigs can find blocks. So the cost of mining increases.
Also if the price drops, mining becomes less profitable and miners could drop out reducing the competition and the rate at which blocks are found, the mining difficulty would be reduced, this reduces the cost of mining. So the existing rigs find blocks faster.

In my opinion, the price of Bitcoin and the mining difficulty are interdependent and balance each other.

Exactly. Finally, the most profitable miners will remain. That includes different parts:

- most important: electricity price
- mining equipment and its efficiency
- expenses for cooling
- expenses for location
- expenses for staff
- expenses for taxes
...

Less profitable miners will shut down when it's not profitable for them anymore.

reason: mojo

Well, that's not enough for a Merit. 

[LoyceV]

Important questions to related to this giveaway:
- How many blocks are generated per hour?
- What does mining difficulty mean?
- What’s a mining difficulty adjustment?
- When are such adjustments done?
- How is BTC price affecting miners and therefore also mining difficulty and block generation process?

Although I could try to answer all those questions, there's a much simpler way: extrapolation! During the past month, the exact same questions were valid, but they've already been answered on the blockchain.
The only real variable that's left is the Bitcoin price: if it goes up a lot, the hashrate will go up. But I don't expect it to change much in just a month.

My guess
We're in the same timezone, so that's easy. There are 30 days and 2 hours left. The current latest block is 606211.
Going back 30 days and 2 hours, we're looking at November 1, 20:00h. Now all I have to do is find the closest block: 601943.
The difference: 606211-601943=4268 blocks.
My estimate: 606211+4268=610479
My guess for the first block of 2020: 610479.

I don't think it's very likely to be correct though: 4268 blocks is less than what's expected in 30 days, 2 hours: (30*24+2)*6=4332, and at increasing hashrate miners are usually a bit faster than what's expected. So it could be the hashrate dropped in the past month (due to the price drop), and if that's the case, the hashrate has to continue dropping for my prediction to become true.

I love educated guesses
Unless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it.

[mikeywith]

the hashrate has to continue dropping

Which never happens "sadly"

Most people have this misconception about bitcoin price vs hashrate/difficulty , this is normal for people who are not heavily invested in mining , but if you have been mining for long enough then you know that theory is invalid.

in theory, it makes sense that if price drops the following happens

1- mining becomes less profitable
2- hashrate decreases and so does difficulty.

While the first one is correct, the second one is invalid , the reason is "efficiency", mining gears become more efficient everyday, so consuming the same amount of energy today gets you more than double the hashrate as opposed of 2017.

another factor is , while miners as "PEOPLE" leave the game, mining gears take way too long to leave the network, simply because there are always people with cheaper power rate who will buy the mining gears from those who pay more for electricity , for an example , a guy in west EU can't make any more profit with say Antminer S9 today, that S9 won't be stored in the garage for good or thrown away, it will be sold to the guy in east EU or sent back to China and those guys who have better power rate will re-plug that S9 back to the network.


Below is a chart form Tradingview contains all hashrate data from 2010 to present day, each candle represents one full month of data




BTC had a few tragic bear markets, hashrate never really had , hashrate seldom goes down, it stays flat for a while and then move up, Bitmain is due to ship a dozen of mining gears during this month (pre-order) , and my guess is that even if price keeps going lower , hashrate will only go higher for months to come, unless something out of the ordinary happens.


If I may, i would add a "cheat" tool for this giveaway  , this tool predicts the next difficulty , sadly it's less efficient for long term since the deadline is 06.12.2019,  this other tool contains historical data inculding number of blocks found in each round, not really the best way to estimate a block that's a month away, but a good tool to give you an "outside the box" view of how this difficulty thing actually effects the block production.


@miau sorry for this long post, I tried to stay on topic as much as i could , I just can't help not posting when it's anything mining related, I will post my guess later after discussing the matter with Jihan Wu. 

[UserU]

I'll go for 610,357

[1miau]

Although I could try to answer all those questions, there's a much simpler way: extrapolation!

Nice attempt! I expect it will drop further, so my nominated number is again 100 blocks less.  

Unless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it.

Of course it's open for everyone!  
But you are somehow right, the title is a bit misleading, I meant "giveaway for beginner's education".
Do you have some suggestions to improve it? Note: characters are limited, only 10 left.  


@mikeywith
Also a nice explanation, but I have to disagree because my number is 610,375  

the hashrate has to continue dropping

Which never happens "sadly"
...

I can agree for long-term consideration because mining hardware is always getting more effective ("moores law") and as a result, the hashrate is going up. However, I'm not sure if that applies for the next weeks, when the giveaway is relevant. I'm speculating for a lower BTC-price and therefore a lower hashrate and slower block creation. =)

We are at a price range now where it's likely that another drop of hashrate might occur at any time when price drops further:


https://btc.com/stats/diff

For me, (I'm not involved in mining) it looks like that some miners aren't making much profit right now and consider to shut down.

Most people have this misconception about bitcoin price vs hashrate/difficulty , this is normal for people who are not heavily invested in mining , but if you have been mining for long enough then you know that theory is invalid.

But the question is: will these normal people win the giveaway?  

BTC had a few tragic bear markets, hashrate never really had , hashrate seldom goes down, it stays flat for a while and then move up, Bitmain is due to ship a dozen of mining gears during this month (pre-order) , and my guess is that even if price keeps going lower , hashrate will only go higher for months to come, unless something out of the ordinary happens.

It'll be interesting to see what's happening when the halving is coming should the price stay around similar levels like right now.

If I may, i would add a "cheat" tool for this giveaway  , this tool predicts the next difficulty , sadly it's less efficient for long term since the deadline is 06.12.2019,  this other tool contains historical data inculding number of blocks found in each round, not really the best way to estimate a block that's a month away, but a good tool to give you an "outside the box" view of how this difficulty thing actually effects the block production.

Yeah, I'm using BTC.com normally and as far as I know it's a good source.

@miau sorry for this long post, I tried to stay on topic as much as i could , I just can't help not posting when it's anything mining related, I will post my guess later after discussing the matter with Jihan Wu.  

I like detailed and insightful posts and it's actually what I've hoped for as outcome of my giveaway, so don't worry at all. Your comment is much appreciated.  
Looking forward to your number!

[GazetaBitcoin]

Well, I'll give it a try too

Latest block as of now is 606309, at CET date & time December 2^nd, 1.35PM.
Considering the following:
- until December 31^st at 11:59PM are 42.385 minutes remaining (625 minutes left from today and 41.760 for the interval 03-31 December (29 days*24h*60 minutes = 41.760)),
- an average time of 9.5 minutes to find a new block (this time varies, being conditioned by several factors, such as the difficulty),
- 42.385 : 9.5 = 4461.57,

I consider the 1st block of 2020 will be the block number 610.770 (606.309 + 4461 = 610.770).

Let's Hope for the best

[1miau]

I love educated guesses
Unless this was for Beginners only? The title makes it look that way, but the rest of the topic doesn't look like it.

I've adjusted the title replacing "Beginner's giveaway" by "Educational giveaway", hope it's better now and people don't think it's for beginners only. 

I consider the 1st block of 2020 will be the block number 610.770 (606.309 + 4461 = 610.770).

Added to my list. 

Let's Hope for the best

Yess =)
Good luck!

[Mashfiqun]

I'll have a go at 610,516
Let's see what comes up.

[Last of the V8s]

Relevant time is CET (Berlin time)

What a very nice educational thread, to which I've nothing to add but my guess, based on an ever-present impression that there's a wall of machines about to come online:
610910
tyvm