[FINISHED] Educational giveaway | guess first Bitcoin Block in 2020 [9.5 mBTC]

[Swordsoffreedom]

610600

My BTC address 12yXHZE3vpqn7gSi5eLxV61sHwY1pJbQ6C

[1713491694]

1713491694

[1713491694]

1713491694

[1713491694]

1713491694

[1713491694]

1713491694

[nelson4lov]

On average, 146 blocks are mined per day.  Taking the current block height of 606434 into consideration, there are 31 days in December. So the predicted number of blocks would be 31 *  146 = 4526 blocks. Deducting blocks of the last 2 days,

4526 - (146 * 2) = 4234.

Referenced block 606434 + 4234  = 610,668.

[naska21]

Without further ado and averaging first 12 guesses I predict 610572

[DdmrDdmr]

Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated (with a change from sha1 to SHA2_256, since sha1 is deprecated on my SQL version, and a few others due to datatype stuff):

select 610357 + convert(int,convert(varbinary,convert(varchar,'0x' + substring(convert(varchar, HASHBYTES('SHA2_256',@MySeed),1),3,2),1),1))*2

Result: 610637

[Scheede]

Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated (with a change from sha1 to SHA2_256, since sha1 is deprecated on my SQL version, and a few others due to datatype stuff):

select 610357 + convert(int,convert(varbinary,convert(varchar,'0x' + substring(convert(varchar, HASHBYTES('SHA2_256',@MySeed),1),3,2),1),1))*2

Result: 610637

Love you, nerd

Will try to take advantage of your knowledge and drop a guess for 610616

[RapTarX]

Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated

Most creative way ever existed 
Well, the 2016 block adjustment will happen at 608832 blocks and it's very possible that we may have some quicker blocks than the actual average of 10 minutes. Your prediction is 78 blocks higher than the average one.
Good luck.

[SFR10]

I developed my own formula ^{[inspired by "DdmrDdmr"]}:

521899 ^{[my UID]} /3636 ^{[my post count, including this post]} x 27 ^{[days left, I do know it's actually 26 days, 19 hours, 11 minutes]} + 606751 ^{[latest block]} = 610,626.48
- I do know that there are already a lot of educated guesses but I prefer to lock mine to 610,626

[pooya87]

610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method.

[safari88]

i just take a random number so my guess will be 610548

[GazetaBitcoin]

610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method.

What is the good 144 * days method?

[1miau]

@everyone: due to low participation I've extended the registration from 06.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time) to 08.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time).

Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated (with a change from sha1 to SHA2_256, since sha1 is deprecated on my SQL version, and a few others due to datatype stuff):

select 610357 + convert(int,convert(varbinary,convert(varchar,'0x' + substring(convert(varchar, HASHBYTES('SHA2_256',@MySeed),1),3,2),1),1))*2

Result: 610637

I developed my own formula ^{[inspired by "DdmrDdmr"]}:

521899 ^{[my UID]} /3636 ^{[my post count, including this post]} x 27 ^{[days left, I do know it's actually 26 days, 19 hours, 11 minutes]} + 606751 ^{[latest block]} = 610,626.48
- I do know that there are already a lot of educated guesses but I prefer to lock mine to 610,626

Nice ones.  
@SFR10 may I ask how long did it take until the calculation was at least somehow close to an realistic number?  

Since all the science has already been used, and assuming that the range in the current entries is reasonable, I went for an approach similar to how the Magic Number for Legendary Activity is generated

Most creative way ever existed  
Well, the 2016 block adjustment will happen at 608832 blocks and it's very possible that we may have some quicker blocks than the actual average of 10 minutes. Your prediction is 78 blocks higher than the average one.
Good luck.

That's when people start gambling.  
It's all depending if BTC will dump again (and miners switch off for my expectation). Right now, BTC isn't moving much up / down, so miners are relatively stable. When BTC price is going sideways, I expect an increasing hashrate and as a result faster blocks and DdmrDdmr's "prediction" could come true.

i just take a random number so my guess will be 610548

Sorry, but all participants have to follow my rules and I can't accept your number.  

Rules (Please read! If you are caught not reading the rules, I reserve the right to reject you):

• ...
• To prevent cheating, your account needs to have at least 5 earned Merit, airdropped Merit doesn’t count.
• ...

However, if you manage to get 2 more Merit until the registration for the giveaway ends (08.12.2019 at 23.59.59 CET (Berlin Time)), you'll be in!  

610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method.

What is the good 144 * days method?

I guess it's also my projection: 144 [blocks per day while 1 block = 10 min avg. [ => 6 blocks per hour x24 hours]] * days left until 2020.


New projection: 37,225 Minutes / 10 Blocks + 606,852 (current Block) = 610,574

[pooya87]

610,542 using the the good old 144 * days method.

What is the good 144 * days method?

it is the lazy inaccurate way of calculating how many blocks are going to be mined in N days.
there is no guarantee to have 1 block every 10 minute, but usually the average is that. 1 day is 24 hours and 1 hour is 6x 10 minutes so we can see 6*24=144 blocks in one day.
a better way is to extrapolate the data that we have from previous weeks, at least for 5 difficulty adjustment period. i tried doing that using blockchair API but faced some problems and gave up

[GazetaBitcoin]

Ah, I understood now! Thx for the explanation

[crwth]

Latest block mined is 606,876 during the making of this post

With the unexpected addition of hash power, the average is now 9.5 minutes [1]

25 days, 8 hours, 38 minutes and 35 seconds remaining till January 1. or 36,518 minutes (rounded down) [2]

36518/9.5 = 3844 blocks

606876+3844 = 610720 <- My prediction

[1] - https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoins-are-there/
[2] - https://www.timeanddate.com/date/durationresult.html?d1=6&m1=12&y1=2019&d2=1&m2=1&y2=2020&h1=15&i1=21&s1=25&h2=0&i2=0&s2=0

[SFR10]

@SFR10 may I ask how long did it take until the calculation was at least somehow close to an realistic number?  

It took around 15ish minutes ^{[5th attempt]} to come up with a formula that was close enough to be considered an average of other results ^{[perhaps I got lucky ]}.

[hanspeter77]

i take 610595

[Last of the V8s]

I am going to win and I am going to be rich you have been warned.

[GazetaBitcoin]

Of course you are!

[1miau]

I am going to win and I am going to be rich you have been warned.

Well, don't celebrate too early. 
It's still a long way to go and I've advertised this giveaway to get some WO regulars in. ^^

I am going to win and I am going to be rich you have been warned.

Don't let him win so easily! 

But I guess you'll get rich anyway, I hope all of us will be rich. 

[mikeywith]

I am a huge fan of math and science, but since luck gets so powerful in terms of affecting block finding in the short-term view, I have decided to drop a random number slightly based on the assumption that more blocks will be found than the average 10min per block for the coming a few weeks because of the new gears that are due to come online.

My random guess would be 610,800

Thanks bro.