[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[suchmoon]

This is a bet that originated here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5201263.msg53163158#msg53163158
Was accepted here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5201263.msg53279557#msg53279557
And refined here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5201263.msg53286386#msg53286386

I'll be using the following address to pay or to receive the winning bet: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb

First a simple message to make sure eddie13 can use this address to verify the signature since we had some issues with my first attempt.

Message: suchmoon's address 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb 2019-12-09
Signature: IBLVkYyFu0b+At6GhZnIQrTSFIufijq5v8DIawA6TQITVHg6LgKrHLahOgTnNrBVZ7ZQDCUdohVmj6nn2bOhkH4=

Now the real bet contract:

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2019-12-09

Signature: INAwQT1w7fOpXmXIgQqru2P1P07FpstW6XRKzaqG1jsdJ4/djFTgQrMgEgvuvuBX3OkjFpsXPFgZLqPu1dfdVvM=


Local rules: this particular bet, as well as betting on 2020 presidential election in general, and discussing the election itself is on topic. Everything else, including the usual P&S bullshit (you know who you are) is not.

[1713585351]

1713585351

[1713585351]

1713585351

[squatz1]

Big fan of how this bet was laid out. Makes both sides feel as if they're not cheated in the event of something catastrophic happening or in the event that some Republican senators flip on Trump.

Can't wait to see how this turns out. I'm assuming this sort of betting is also present on ugh -- ETH decentralized sites -- probably not with the same amount of clauses though.

[suchmoon]

Big fan of how this bet was laid out. Makes both sides feel as if they're not cheated in the event of something catastrophic happening or in the event that some Republican senators flip on Trump.

I would still love to have a straight YOLO Trump-all-the-way bet without any conditions. There are definitely some users here who are 100% convinced that the impeachment is a hoax and that the re-election is a done deal. I would consider a bet against that but it would have to be decent-sized multisig-escrowed no-bullshit offer to make it worthwhile.

[eddie13]

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2019-12-09

1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
IJ1eqLjiIGXk7byYYqPViHKqJ3eYfTP1ttyDbTqy2ji4UyWoM7cBb++FT7F0HAnt/C6wAwc4TAlMWVXKZO2w1nk=

Edit: Accepted and now considered official..

[suchmoon]

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2019-12-09

1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff
IJ1eqLjiIGXk7byYYqPViHKqJ3eYfTP1ttyDbTqy2ji4UyWoM7cBb++FT7F0HAnt/C6wAwc4TAlMWVXKZO2w1nk=

Edit: Accepted and now considered official..

Verified. Thank you. Let the year-long mutual taunting begin

[eddie13]

Let the year-long mutual taunting begin

Through the next halving at that..
Will this have been a $30,000 bet?

[squatz1]

Big fan of how this bet was laid out. Makes both sides feel as if they're not cheated in the event of something catastrophic happening or in the event that some Republican senators flip on Trump.

I would still love to have a straight YOLO Trump-all-the-way bet without any conditions. There are definitely some users here who are 100% convinced that the impeachment is a hoax and that the re-election is a done deal. I would consider a bet against that but it would have to be decent-sized multisig-escrowed no-bullshit offer to make it worthwhile.

I mean if those were the conditions, I think you'd have to pay more in the event that Trump does win -- as you're missing a good deal of conditions in that one. This one is fair, as it's 1:1 with a good deal of conditions ensuring that as I said before, both sides are happy.

I'd be willing to make a bet like that, let me know.

[suchmoon]

I mean if those were the conditions, I think you'd have to pay more in the event that Trump does win -- as you're missing a good deal of conditions in that one. This one is fair, as it's 1:1 with a good deal of conditions ensuring that as I said before, both sides are happy.

I'd be willing to make a bet like that, let me know.

Do you mean you'd want to do a 1:1 with the same conditions like the OP? Boring

How about this: pick Trump and one other person who you think would be elected if Trump dies etc, can be a Republican or a Democrat, doesn't matter. Let's say you pick Trump+Pence, if either of them is elected President - you win, if not - I win, no other conditions, even-money bet (1:1). Then your risk (other than Trump losing) is only (1) something catastrophic/unconstitutional; or (2) if you picked the wrong 2nd person, e.g. Pence is impeached along with Trump LOL.

Actually I haven't checked what odds bookies are offering for Pence, I might be too generous here

[squatz1]

I mean if those were the conditions, I think you'd have to pay more in the event that Trump does win -- as you're missing a good deal of conditions in that one. This one is fair, as it's 1:1 with a good deal of conditions ensuring that as I said before, both sides are happy.

I'd be willing to make a bet like that, let me know.

Do you mean you'd want to do a 1:1 with the same conditions like the OP? Boring

How about this: pick Trump and one other person who you think would be elected if Trump dies etc, can be a Republican or a Democrat, doesn't matter. Let's say you pick Trump+Pence, if either of them is elected President - you win, if not - I win, no other conditions, even-money bet (1:1). Then your risk (other than Trump losing) is only (1) something catastrophic/unconstitutional; or (2) if you picked the wrong 2nd person, e.g. Pence is impeached along with Trump LOL.

Actually I haven't checked what odds bookies are offering for Pence, I might be too generous here

Hm, this is interesting. Give me a few days to think it over.

I don't think that Pence has any shot of being elected if Trump was to be impeached and found guility, dies, etc. I think that if Trump is gone, Pence is probably going to go with him and the GOP has no shot of winning.

So yeah, going to think that one over and shoot back to ya here with my thoughts.

[suchmoon]

Hm, this is interesting. Give me a few days to think it over.

I don't think that Pence has any shot of being elected if Trump was to be impeached and found guility, dies, etc. I think that if Trump is gone, Pence is probably going to go with him and the GOP has no shot of winning.

So yeah, going to think that one over and shoot back to ya here with my thoughts.

Sure, no problem.

It'd be worth the comedy value alone if you pick Hillary for a hedge

[squatz1]

Hm, this is interesting. Give me a few days to think it over.

I don't think that Pence has any shot of being elected if Trump was to be impeached and found guility, dies, etc. I think that if Trump is gone, Pence is probably going to go with him and the GOP has no shot of winning.

So yeah, going to think that one over and shoot back to ya here with my thoughts.

Sure, no problem.

It'd be worth the comedy value alone if you pick Hillary for a hedge

The real hedge is to pick Biden

But yes, it would be worth the comedy value IMO to pick someone like Hillary, Bloomberg, etc.

[TECSHARE]

I dunno, Biden and Vermin Supreme are about a toss up. Mandatory ponies for everyone is a popular platform compared to a chomo with dementia, no matter how much he knows about roaches.

[PrimeNumber7]

Trump is currently favored to win the election, but the specific odds reflect that he will lose.

Based on the above, suchmoon could take this bet payout out even money, and bet on Trump to win the election on a reputable gambling site, and profit regardless of who wins the election, provided both counter-parties pay out.

[TwitchySeal]

Trump is currently favored to win the election, but the specific odds reflect that he will lose.

Based on the above, suchmoon could take this bet payout out even money, and bet on Trump to win the election on a reputable gambling site, and profit regardless of who wins the election, provided both counter-parties pay out.

If Trump to win at +125 is accurate it means Suchmoon will win the bet 55.6 % of the time and the BTC0.1 is now worth BTC0.125

I've seen it bouncing around from +110 - +130 on a few other offshore books.

Congrats Suchmoon!

Although, in politics the books just set the prices based on where the money is going, so it's much less of an indicator than any professional sporting event where they analyze huge amounts of data.  Also, most of the money is probably coming from non-US residents.  I had to use a vpn just to access that site.

[nutildah]

If Trump to win at +125 is accurate it means Suchmoon will win the bet 55.6 % of the time and the BTC0.1 is now worth BTC0.125

I've seen it bouncing around from +110 - +130 on a few other offshore books.

Congrats Suchmoon!

I dunno, anything could happen. I remember in 2016 I thought the 1.4x payout on Hillary Clinton was easy money all day long (this was on DirectBet, so maybe it was a slightly higher payout on other sites). Pretty happy I never actually put a bet in on that one.

I remember their 2 selections were Hillary Clinton and "Republican Candidate." They never bothered putting in "Donald Trump," because I guess he was too much of a wildcard.

In any case, the moral of the story is, anything can (and does) happen!

[Carlton Banks]

There are definitely some users here who are 100% convinced that the impeachment is a hoax and that the re-election is a done deal.

I would consider myself ~50% convinced (i.e. not convinced at all) that the impeachment was at least partially staged (i.e. alot of those playing a role in the impeachment aren't in on the joke) and that it is just another vector by which to maximize the polarization of the US voting class. But such things are so hypothetical, going on to say "because reelection is pre-planned" is too much of a stretch. Sure, you could argue it would be convenient to have Trump in charge during any kind of market panic, but if there's any orchestration going on at all with the Trump phenomenon (highly likely, but we in the public have no certainty of), guessing multiple moves in advance isn't very productive speculation

[suchmoon]

If Trump to win at +125 is accurate it means Suchmoon will win the bet 55.6 % of the time and the BTC0.1 is now worth BTC0.125

I've seen it bouncing around from +110 - +130 on a few other offshore books.

It looks like a possibility for arbitrage except for the draw conditions. I wouldn't get a proper hedge by betting on Trump winning because of the possibility of Trump not getting the nomination, and hedging for that one has a surprisingly high cost with most bookies (+300 or +400 when I would have expected closer to +1000). So I'm not planning to bother with that and will just let it ride as is.

On the other hand, eddie13 could have found better odds somewhere else but who knows, maybe as the election approaches he'll get a shot at arbitrage if he wants to reduce his risk.

I bet (pun intended) that squatz1 is now crunching those numbers too.

[iluvbitcoins]

The liberal insanity has been so high that Trump has to win.
Bad bet suchmoon 

[eddie13]

https://www.oddsshark.com/other/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures

I'm not super familiar with sportsbook betting, or whatever you call this, but isn't "100" equal to a 1:1 bet, anything over 100 means the odds are against your bet and you would win more than risked?

So, If I bet there trump to win a @125, if Trump did win I would win .125 if I bet .1?

My odds on a straight "Trump wins" bet would be greater there right now, but I would give up all of my draw conditions in the SM bet, such as if Trump decided to retire and endorse/campaign for say Pence, I would loose there, so it balances out decently imo..

According to that chart with hitlery @ +3000, If I bet .1 on the shilldog to win it would pay 30X and therefore pay out 3.0 BTC for a .1 BTC bet?

I think @DarkStar_ is the best sportsbook arbitrage expert about these things that I know of..

[suchmoon]

The liberal insanity has been so high that Trump has to win.

He doesn't have to if Republicans decided to grow a backbone. But since they're going the opposite route I wonder where they'll find a mumbling idiot to nominate in 2024 to keep the base happy. Anyone wanna offer bets on that?

Bad bet suchmoon

No big deal - eddie13 said Bitcoin's gonna be like $300k by that time so I won't have any financial worries.

So, If I bet there trump to win a @125, if Trump did win I would win .125 if I bet .1?
[...]
According to that chart with hitlery @ +3000, If I bet .1 on the shilldog to win it would pay 30X and therefore pay out 3.0 BTC for a .1 BTC bet?

In a nutshell, yes. There is fine print too, usually hidden somewhere and it's often not well-suited for non-sports events and may come down to "we'll pay you if we feel like it".