[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[eddie13]

If Trump quarantines everyone and postpones the election - it's a draw. Just thought I'd make that clear in advance

Covered in the OP broski..

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.

But what if he only quarantines the cities and lets all the flyover country folk vote still? Heh..

What about another scenario, maybe a bit too realistic. If he thought he was going to lose the election in November 2020 or if he won re-election but say two or three years in to his final term - would you put it past him to start a war either by provoking any state (so-called enemy state or other) in to taking action or simply by taking action himself by attacking another country?

Any such scenario could invoke a Franklin D. Roosevelt style of remaining in office for the duration of the war and beyond so would Trump be tempted to go down that line?

If Trump quarantines everyone and postpones the election - it's a draw. Just thought I'd make that clear in advance

Why though?
I don't think he is power hungry like that or he would have been trying to get into the Gov for a long time, which he hasn't..

[1713285045]

1713285045

[1713285045]

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[suchmoon]

But what if he only quarantines the cities and lets all the flyover country folk vote still? Heh..

Nancy would impeach him and Pence, take over the presidency, and run for re-election as a Republican. The flyover folks won't even notice.

[JollyGood]

Well some analysts have stated it was a long term plan, to use the latter part of his appearing on television (The Apprentice) to before pushing to try to be the GOP candidate. Keeping that aside you are right, he has not shown any worrying signs of trying to hold on to power beyond by underhand tactics.

What about another scenario, maybe a bit too realistic. If he thought he was going to lose the election in November 2020 or if he won re-election but say two or three years in to his final term - would you put it past him to start a war either by provoking any state (so-called enemy state or other) in to taking action or simply by taking action himself by attacking another country?

Any such scenario could invoke a Franklin D. Roosevelt style of remaining in office for the duration of the war and beyond so would Trump be tempted to go down that line?

Why though?
I don't think he is power hungry like that or he would have been trying to get into the Gov for a long time, which he hasn't..

[eddie13]

I'm a bit nervous of Bernie TBH because I like him as a person and believe he is sincere like I believe Trump is sincere.. But I could never vote for his positions..

Bloomberg is just wasting a bunch of money..

[JollyGood]

Bloomberg put hundreds of millions of his own USD$ to get this far with all those ads but he will not be successful.

At this stage of the Democrat candidate selection process, I am stunned that Sanders is in the driving seat. I thought he would headed the same way down the rankings as Biden but Sanders is going strong. Nevada was a real eye opener not just for the candidates but also for Sanders, he is way out in front right now.

In a straight vote between Sanders and Trump in November, do you think Sanders will win? It will be difficult but not impossible.

I'm a bit nervous of Bernie TBH because I like him as a person and believe he is sincere like I believe Trump is sincere.. But I could never vote for his positions..

Bloomberg is just wasting a bunch of money..

[PrimeNumber7]

My prediction is the Coronavirus will greatly favor Trump in the general election. Here is why:
* Everyone will have to pare back social gatherings, such as dinner fundraisers, and political rallies. This will make it more difficult for the Democrat nominee to both fundraise and get the base energized. Trump already has a huge fundraising advantage. Also, Trump can call a press conference anytime he wishes and pretty much every major news network will broadcast it live because Trump is the President. The democratic nominee is free to call a press conference as he chooses, but it will not command the same level of attention.
* Trump will have the opportunity to show leadership in his handling a possible outbreak (if one occurs), and to act presidential while dealing with it. This is not unlike what Obama did after Superstorm Sandy hit the east coast when Obama was pretending to act presidential.
*Democrats will almost certainly attack any success that Trump has, which will turn off swing voters.

[TECSHARE]

I'm a bit nervous of Bernie TBH because I like him as a person and believe he is sincere like I believe Trump is sincere.. But I could never vote for his positions..

Bloomberg is just wasting a bunch of money..

Don't be. While I agree he has the most support of all the current options, he is also being sabotaged by his own party. Additionally anyone with a few brain cells to rub together knows what he is offering is not possible economically even at a 100% tax rate. Don't underestimate the push back from moderates and liberals that dislike Trump but know Bernie will bern it all down. Also, Bernie just lost himself Florida with his Cuba comments.

My prediction is the Coronavirus will greatly favor Trump in the general election. Here is why:
* Everyone will have to pare back social gatherings, such as dinner fundraisers, and political rallies. This will make it more difficult for the Democrat nominee to both fundraise and get the base energized. Trump already has a huge fundraising advantage. Also, Trump can call a press conference anytime he wishes and pretty much every major news network will broadcast it live because Trump is the President. The democratic nominee is free to call a press conference as he chooses, but it will not command the same level of attention.
* Trump will have the opportunity to show leadership in his handling a possible outbreak (if one occurs), and to act presidential while dealing with it. This is not unlike what Obama did after Superstorm Sandy hit the east coast when Obama was pretending to act presidential.
*Democrats will almost certainly attack any success that Trump has, which will turn off swing voters.

Also, one other thing. One linchpin that Trump has been dependent on is the economy running well. With the Coronavirus taking full responsibility (justified or otherwise) people are going to be less likely to pin the fault on him when the economy inevitably grinds to a halt as a result of supply chains vaporizing. People are also less willing to make big changes in disaster scenarios.

[dupeddonk]

My prediction is the Coronavirus will greatly favor Trump in the general election. Here is why:
* Everyone will have to pare back social gatherings, such as dinner fundraisers, and political rallies. This will make it more difficult for the Democrat nominee to both fundraise and get the base energized. Trump already has a huge fundraising advantage. Also, Trump can call a press conference anytime he wishes and pretty much every major news network will broadcast it live because Trump is the President. The democratic nominee is free to call a press conference as he chooses, but it will not command the same level of attention.
* Trump will have the opportunity to show leadership in his handling a possible outbreak (if one occurs), and to act presidential while dealing with it. This is not unlike what Obama did after Superstorm Sandy hit the east coast when Obama was pretending to act presidential.
*Democrats will almost certainly attack any success that Trump has, which will turn off swing voters.

i feel like it could go either way in a big way regarding coronavirus. if things calm down with the virus, the global outbreaks taper off and the US avoids any outbreaks in major cities the market will go back to growing, the dems will all be wrong again and trump will end up in a better position politically than if there never was a virus.

but i can think up a bunch of possible scenarios that put trump in a very tough spot. 

one of the worse case scenarios: imagine an outbreak in new york city as the election is approaching.  theyd have to lock down the financial capital of the world during what would likely already be a recession.  i dont think the city could function even a little without public transportation.  maybe shut down bridges and tunnels.  what happens to wall street?  do they shut down the markets? 

does trump put all his energy into doing only whats best for the entire country, even if it means short term economic pain which would could cost him votes. or does he continue to focus on casting blame on others, dividing the country and raising the stakes of the election as high as possible - causing as much anger and anxiety as possible.  i dunno which would work out better for him honestly.  also if theres enough outbreaks come late october, he could justify cancelling the election.  highly doubtful.  but think about if the election was like 2 months from now it would be a real possibility. 

[suchmoon]

what happens to wall street?  do they shut down the markets? 

People don't need to be physically on Wall Street to trade in the markets. NASDAQ/NYSE/etc servers are probably somewhere in Jersey anyway.

But it would still be a massive shitshow for all the other reasons. Economy so dependent on consumption would suffer if people are forced to sit at home. This might be a good time to invest in grocery delivery.

[squatz1]

I'm a bit nervous of Bernie TBH because I like him as a person and believe he is sincere like I believe Trump is sincere.. But I could never vote for his positions..

Bloomberg is just wasting a bunch of money..

Don't be. While I agree he has the most support of all the current options, he is also being sabotaged by his own party. Additionally anyone with a few brain cells to rub together knows what he is offering is not possible economically even at a 100% tax rate. Don't underestimate the push back from moderates and liberals that dislike Trump but know Bernie will bern it all down. Also, Bernie just lost himself Florida with his Cuba comments.

My prediction is the Coronavirus will greatly favor Trump in the general election. Here is why:
* Everyone will have to pare back social gatherings, such as dinner fundraisers, and political rallies. This will make it more difficult for the Democrat nominee to both fundraise and get the base energized. Trump already has a huge fundraising advantage. Also, Trump can call a press conference anytime he wishes and pretty much every major news network will broadcast it live because Trump is the President. The democratic nominee is free to call a press conference as he chooses, but it will not command the same level of attention.
* Trump will have the opportunity to show leadership in his handling a possible outbreak (if one occurs), and to act presidential while dealing with it. This is not unlike what Obama did after Superstorm Sandy hit the east coast when Obama was pretending to act presidential.
*Democrats will almost certainly attack any success that Trump has, which will turn off swing voters.

Also, one other thing. One linchpin that Trump has been dependent on is the economy running well. With the Coronavirus taking full responsibility (justified or otherwise) people are going to be less likely to pin the fault on him when the economy inevitably grinds to a halt as a result of supply chains vaporizing. People are also less willing to make big changes in disaster scenarios.

Yeah, I see tons of Dems saying that the Dow going down this much is going to cause Trump to lose the presidency because of the 401k voters voting with their wallet. I doubt it.

I think that if the WH and the Trump campaign is able to keep the focus on the virus and how it's causing issues that they're dealing with appropriately -- then the voters will understand that this is something that is out of their hands.

We'll see though, as this is truly a curveball.

[PrimeNumber7]

My prediction is the Coronavirus will greatly favor Trump in the general election. Here is why:
* Everyone will have to pare back social gatherings, such as dinner fundraisers, and political rallies. This will make it more difficult for the Democrat nominee to both fundraise and get the base energized. Trump already has a huge fundraising advantage. Also, Trump can call a press conference anytime he wishes and pretty much every major news network will broadcast it live because Trump is the President. The democratic nominee is free to call a press conference as he chooses, but it will not command the same level of attention.
* Trump will have the opportunity to show leadership in his handling a possible outbreak (if one occurs), and to act presidential while dealing with it. This is not unlike what Obama did after Superstorm Sandy hit the east coast when Obama was pretending to act presidential.
*Democrats will almost certainly attack any success that Trump has, which will turn off swing voters.

i feel like it could go either way in a big way regarding coronavirus. if things calm down with the virus, the global outbreaks taper off and the US avoids any outbreaks in major cities the market will go back to growing, the dems will all be wrong again and trump will end up in a better position politically than if there never was a virus.

but i can think up a bunch of possible scenarios that put trump in a very tough spot. 

one of the worse case scenarios: imagine an outbreak in new york city as the election is approaching.  theyd have to lock down the financial capital of the world during what would likely already be a recession.  i dont think the city could function even a little without public transportation.  maybe shut down bridges and tunnels.  what happens to wall street?  do they shut down the markets? 

does trump put all his energy into doing only whats best for the entire country, even if it means short term economic pain which would could cost him votes. or does he continue to focus on casting blame on others, dividing the country and raising the stakes of the election as high as possible - causing as much anger and anxiety as possible.  i dunno which would work out better for him honestly.  also if theres enough outbreaks come late october, he could justify cancelling the election.  highly doubtful.  but think about if the election was like 2 months from now it would be a real possibility. 

As mentioned above, it is more probable that weakness in the economy would be chalked up to the coronavirus and would not be attributed to Trump, while his past successes with the economy would be attributed to him.

The exchanges have business continuity plans that would allow them to continue operating if they had to shut down operations in the east coast. The same is true for the various banks that trade on the exchanges. Most trading is done electronically anyway. I would be fairly surprised if public transport was shut down in the US due to the coronavirus, that really isn’t something that democracies usually do.

I would also find it unlikely that trump would postpone the election, doing so would almost guarantee that he doesn’t get re-elected. I would think it would be much more likely that any of the democrats running for President would cancel the subsequent elections indefinitely after they get elected, than for trump to postpone the election in a legitimate emergency. This would probably happen after they take away everyone’s guns.   

[eddie13]

Wondering how we would be better off with a change to a D president under a pandemic outbreak..
They would probably just spend a rediculous amount of money and not accomplish anything..

Trump asks for a couple billion to fight the china virus and the left is all "No! You need 3X that much!"..

[TECSHARE]

Wondering how we would be better off with a change to a D president under a pandemic outbreak..
They would probably just spend a rediculous amount of money and not accomplish anything..

Trump asks for a couple billion to fight the china virus and the left is all "No! You need 3X that much!"..

Maybe it would work for them like it did for Magic Johnson...

[dupeddonk]

Wondering how we would be better off with a change to a D president under a pandemic outbreak..
They would probably just spend a rediculous amount of money and not accomplish anything..

Trump asks for a couple billion to fight the china virus and the left is all "No! You need 3X that much!"..

he took the 3x and it was not even close to enough

[TwitchySeal]

First time Trump hasn't been a favorite on predictit:



https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election

Even before all the money against Trump was consolidated into one candidate Trump was selling for more than 50 cents.

[eddie13]

Yep, only time will tell if Trump has/will do a good job on the China virus situation..
Today the entire world is falling apart, Trump made a bold move last night, and we will have to wait and see if it was a good call or not..

To be fair, the "market" wasn't impressed with those bailouts either... S&P is still down 8%.

Yeah.. I don't know what this is going to do to the election, but at this rate Bitcoin is going to be worthless by then anyway so it's whatever..

I'm having a bit of a shit day on top of all that...
Watching the world burn..

[eddie13]

No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.

This was supposed to be a joke about an incredibly unlikely scenario.. Right??

Now.. Not so much..

[TECSHARE]

No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.

This was supposed to be a joke about an incredibly unlikely scenario.. Right??

Now.. Not so much..

I highly doubt this will happen, but it might be worth while to clarify the terms of a delay. An outright canceling of the election would most certainly result in massive unrest.

[suchmoon]

No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.

This was supposed to be a joke about an incredibly unlikely scenario.. Right??

Now.. Not so much..

Yeah, I missed the chance to become a prophet by putting "global pandemic" in there...

I'm reasonably certain that the election will happen even if it needs to be staggered over two weeks to keep people 6 feet apart and bathe everyone in bleach. However the EC still needs to announce the result by Jan 31, otherwise it's a draw. Agree?

I should probably work on figuring out this:

Seriously though, I was thinking about setting up a locktime transaction to a trusted third party who could pay out if I happen to die AND lose the bet. Or just set it up to go to eddie13 and hope he returns it to my heir if I win. In some ways this would be more robust than 2-of-3 multisig (fewer third parties).

But that's not particularly high on my priority list. Besides - the chance of me somehow screwing it up and/or forgetting to move the coins if I'm alive is probably higher than me kicking the bucket within a year.

Famous last words LOL. I figure I have a ~2% chance of "kicking the bucket within a year" now.

[PrimeNumber7]

No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.

This was supposed to be a joke about an incredibly unlikely scenario.. Right??

Now.. Not so much..

I think this is already the case per the terms of the contract as posted in the OP. Per the contract, it is a draw if there is no election in 2020 or if the electoral college doesn’t meet by Jan 31, 2021.