[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[JollyGood]

If Kanye ends up getting in the Whitehouse it will be the biggest shock in US political history, I just cannot see it happening.

If the drama level keeps going up at this rate Kanye will for sure be the next president.

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[suchmoon]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/08/trump-antagonizes-sheldon-adelson-phone-call-392688

Trump antagonizes GOP megadonor Adelson in heated phone call
Trump chided the Las Vegas mogul — a financial linchpin of his reelection effort — for not spending more. And now, he might not.

Thank you, Mr. President, I really appreciate your hard work helping me to win my bet.

[PrimeNumber7]

Met in the middle with a 400$/wk federal unemployment supplement. Dem's wanted $600/wk up until January, Republicans wanted $200/wk. He also introduced a payroll tax cut.

It is actually $300/week paid by the federal government, with the condition that states pay an additional $100/week.

Here Trump is taking credit for helping unemployed Americans, while also making the lock-downs less popular. This should both help Trump get votes from moderates, while also hurting democrats in down ballot races in state and local elections.

Power of the executive is forever increasing. No stopping it at this point. Trump will also use this to his advantage during the debates claiming Nancy Pelosi stopped the checks.

The legality of Trump's actions are dubious, however it would be stupid politically to try to take action to try to stop it. Trump is redirecting money earmarked for FEMA to pay for the enhanced benefits, so there is money appropriated, which means it isn't a guarantee Trump looses in court. If Trump were to be stopped, Congress would need to sue the Trump administration, which means democrats would own it. Democrats suing to stop the enhanced benefits would mean they would take the blame for the stopped benefits, the lock-downs would be even more unpopular (hurting down ballot elections).

Pelosi and Schemer overplayed their hands in the negotiations. Biden meanwhile is in a tough spot, if he is supportive of Trump's actions, he is praising his opponent, however if he is critical of Trump's actions, he is seen as being against helping unemployed Americans.

The most genius part of all this is Trump holding the press conference at his NJ golf club, with members being able to attend, who are generally his supporters being how much they are paying to be a member there. This meant Trump got laughs, applause and cheering he would not normally get when making this kind of announcement.

[squatz1]

Trump signed an executive order today.

Met in the middle with a 400$/wk federal unemployment supplement. Dem's wanted $600/wk up until January, Republicans wanted $200/wk. He also introduced a payroll tax cut.

https://www.npr.org/2020/08/08/900516854/in-executive-actions-trump-extends-unemployment-benefits

Power of the executive is forever increasing. No stopping it at this point. Trump will also use this to his advantage during the debates claiming Nancy Pelosi stopped the checks.

Not a fan of the executive continuing to increase their power. But we all know that both sides of the aisle are going to like the executive being more and more powerful because it helps them when their side of the aisle is running the show.

Highly doubt that this is going to be something that passes through the courts, as Congress is given the power of the purse. But we'll see what the courts decide and what their current interpretation of executive power is.

[TwitchySeal]

The legality of Trump's actions are dubious, however it would be stupid politically to try to take action to try to stop it. Trump is redirecting money earmarked for FEMA to pay for the enhanced benefits, so there is money appropriated, which means it isn't a guarantee Trump looses in court. If Trump were to be stopped, Congress would need to sue the Trump administration, which means democrats would own it. Democrats suing to stop the enhanced benefits would mean they would take the blame for the stopped benefits, the lock-downs would be even more unpopular (hurting down ballot elections).

Pelosi and Schemer overplayed their hands in the negotiations. Biden meanwhile is in a tough spot, if he is supportive of Trump's actions, he is praising his opponent, however if he is critical of Trump's actions, he is seen as being against helping unemployed Americans.

The most genius part of all this is Trump holding the press conference at his NJ golf club, with members being able to attend, who are generally his supporters being how much they are paying to be a member there. This meant Trump got laughs, applause and cheering he would not normally get when making this kind of announcement.

The legality of Trump's actions are dubious, however it would be stupid politically to try to take action to try to stop it. Trump is redirecting money earmarked for FEMA to pay for the enhanced benefits, so there is money appropriated, which means it isn't a guarantee Trump looses in court. If Trump were to be stopped, Congress would need to sue the Trump administration, which means democrats would own it. Democrats suing to stop the enhanced benefits would mean they would take the blame for the stopped benefits, the lock-downs would be even more unpopular (hurting down ballot elections).

I wouldn't be surprised to see republicans put up a fight as well since this is the kind of move conservatives have been campaigning on preventing forever.  A few have already spoken out on it.

Pelosi and Schemer overplayed their hands in the negotiations. Biden meanwhile is in a tough spot, if he is supportive of Trump's actions, he is praising his opponent, however if he is critical of Trump's actions, he is seen as being against helping unemployed Americans.

Trump is trying to gut social security and decide what to do with the money on his own without congress.  Seems pretty easy spot for democrats to me - nothing they do would really change the view of people who believe they are 'against helping unemployed Americans'.

In the end I think Trump is pissing off the Republicans by stripping congress of power and Democrats for going after social security.

[PrimeNumber7]

The legality of Trump's actions are dubious, however it would be stupid politically to try to take action to try to stop it. Trump is redirecting money earmarked for FEMA to pay for the enhanced benefits, so there is money appropriated, which means it isn't a guarantee Trump looses in court. If Trump were to be stopped, Congress would need to sue the Trump administration, which means democrats would own it. Democrats suing to stop the enhanced benefits would mean they would take the blame for the stopped benefits, the lock-downs would be even more unpopular (hurting down ballot elections).

I wouldn't be surprised to see republicans put up a fight as well since this is the kind of move conservatives have been campaigning on preventing forever.  A few have already spoken out on it.

[img ]https://i.gyazo.com/06a3b74a50ca5e5934e1b9e3601231fd.png[/img]

Individual senators have no authority to challenge Trump's actions. Any legal challenge would need to come from the House as an institution, or the Senate as an institution. I am not sure what specifically can trigger a challenge by the Senate or the House, but it would likely start with leadership of the majority agreeing to want to take action, and there being a vote.

Pelosi and Schemer overplayed their hands in the negotiations. Biden meanwhile is in a tough spot, if he is supportive of Trump's actions, he is praising his opponent, however if he is critical of Trump's actions, he is seen as being against helping unemployed Americans.

Trump is trying to gut social security and decide what to do with the money on his own without congress.  Seems pretty easy spot for democrats to me - nothing they do would really change the view of people who believe they are 'against helping unemployed Americans'.

In the end I think Trump is pissing off the Republicans by stripping congress of power and Democrats for going after social security.

Trump is making the issue of middle tax cuts an election issue. He is making it an election issue and will force Democrats to either agree that Trump is doing the right thing, or campaign on raising taxes on the middle class, both of which would hurt house Democrats, either with their base, or with moderates.

The payroll tax cut is an additional incentive to get back to work. If they were making $10/hour before the pandemic, they would now effectively be making ~$10.62/hour upon returning to work. The more people that return to work, the more opportunities of those without a job will have to get a job.

Trump is not gutting Social Security. In ~2011(?), when there was a temporary 2% tax holiday on social security taxes, Obama directed the treasury to put government bonds of equal value of the lost tax revenue into the social security trust fund, and I have every reason to believe Trump would do the same thing. Further, the difference between cutting the payroll tax and sending a cash payment to those who make under a threshold is a distinction without a difference, as in both cases it is the Federal government that needs to borrow to pay for it.

[suchmoon]

In the end I think Trump is pissing off the Republicans by stripping congress of power and Democrats for going after social security.

It's ok, if it doesn't work out he can say "I was joking".

As for Republicans - I wouldn't bet on them growing a collective spine if they think that this EO can help them in the election.

[PrimeNumber7]

As for Republicans - I wouldn't bet on them growing a collective spine if they think that this EO can help them in the election.

Is this kinda how Creepy Joe Biden, Nervous Nancy, Cryin Chuck, or any otherdemocrat for that matter refuses to stand up to the rioters, looters, or BLM/Anifta terrorists, as long as they think their actions will help the left in the election?

[TECSHARE]

Shipments Of 20,000 Fake IDs From China Seized By Feds Ahead Of Election"

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shipments-20000-fake-ids-china-seized-feds-ahead-election

Russia working with Republicans = credible threat justifying years of investigation in spite of total lack of evidence.

China working with Democrats = INCONCEIVABLE!

[suchmoon]

~

Please try to stay on topic. Underage drinking is not the topic here regardless of what your favorite conspiratard site says.

[TwitchySeal]

~

Please try to stay on topic. Underage drinking is not the topic here regardless of what your favorite conspiratard site says.

I think the point he was trying to make is that voter id laws would mostly suppress votes and do very little in terms of the already low voter fraud numbers.


Current projections from ABC sho GA, NC and AZ as closest races...and they don't matter.

[PrimeNumber7]

Current projections from ABC sho GA, NC and AZ as closest races...and they don't matter.

That map shows Biden flipping every battle ground state, making GA a toss up, that hasn’t voted Democrat in two decades, and makes TX a lean trump state, that hasn’t voted Democrat in four decades (and no democrat has come within 10 points of winning in at least two decades).

Frankly, at best that map is wishful thinking and more realistically that map is fantasy.

[JollyGood]

So if the election takes place in November 2020 it seems Biden will trump Trump

 

[TwitchySeal]

That map shows Biden flipping every battle ground state

No it doesn't.

making GA a toss up, that hasn’t voted Democrat in two decades, and makes TX a lean trump state, that hasn’t voted Democrat in four decades (and no democrat has come within 10 points of winning in at least two decades).

The model is based on recent polling data.  Here are some results of recent polls in GA and TX:

Frankly, at best that map is wishful thinking and more realistically that map is fantasy.

Frankly,  I think Georgia being a toss up state is fine and not all the surprising considering black americans opinion of Trump and Biden as well as the results of the last election, and I don't think it would be unreasonable to make Texas one as well.  What you seem to be arguing is that polls are worthless or even malicious.

While it's impressive how effective Trump has been at convincing his supporters that a negative poll is a direct attack on himself and therefore the pollsters must be attacked in his defense, if you step back and consider the experience and track record of the reputable polling companies - you realize there is too much of an incentive for them to be as accurate and unbiased as possible.

[Gyfts]

Frankly,  I don't see how Georgia could be considered anything but a toss up state and I don't think it would be unreasonable to make Texas one as well.  What you seem to be arguing is that polls are worthless or even malicious.

While it's impressive how effective Trump has been at convincing his supporters that a negative poll is a direct attack on himself and therefore the pollsters must be attacked in his defense, if you step back and consider the experience and track record of the reputable polling companies - you realize there is too much of an incentive for them to be as accurate and unbiased as possible.

As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

[TwitchySeal]

As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

He's basically on the edge of the MOE in most polls right now.  Definitely still has a shot but assuming that Trump will win because he's down in the polls less than the margin of error seems like a mistake. 

[suchmoon]

As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

That's not how margin of error works. It doesn't magically favor one candidate or the other, nor does it represent the absolute limit of difference from real results (IIRC polls report MOE at 95% confidence level).

Not to mention that sampling likely improved taking into account lessons from 2016.

[Gyfts]

As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

He's basically on the edge of the MOE in most polls right now.  Definitely still has a shot but assuming that Trump will win because he's down in the polls less than the margin of error seems like a mistake.  

I don't immediately assume he'll win if he's within the MOE but if he's within the error in red states, Trump should be fine. Georgia is 1/3rd black and Trump's fairly divisive on race so I expect the poll margins to be closer there.

As long as Trump is within margins of Joe Biden in GA and TX in the polls, he'll take the states. In 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania state polling had him down by 4 points in some polls but he was still able to win them.

That's not how margin of error works. It doesn't magically favor one candidate or the other, nor does it represent the absolute limit of difference from real results (IIRC polls report MOE at 95% confidence level).

Not to mention that sampling likely improved taking into account lessons from 2016.

It's not about magically favoring one candidate. Trump under performed in state polling in 2016 and if he's within the margin of error, he's within striking distance and you can begin to look at historical trends of the state. Georgia and Texas favor Republican so there's a good chance they'll do so again in 2020.

By the way, what was wrong with the samples in 2016? Are you talking about oversampling certain groups?

[JollyGood]

Safe to say Trump will lose the electoral college and the popular vote? Things are not looking good for him according to several polls.

[suchmoon]

By the way, what was wrong with the samples in 2016? Are you talking about oversampling certain groups?

Yes, for example oversampling college-educated people could have been one of polling issues in some states.

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx