[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[suchmoon]

VOTER FRAUD IN PENNSYLVANIA!!!!#@!#@$

[...] a man in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, was arrested after allegedly asking for an absentee ballot for his dead mother so he could vote for President Donald Trump.

The 67-year-old man was apprehended last month, WTAJ reported on Oct. 21. Election officials said the example demonstrated how the system worked in spotting and stopping alleged fraud.

I look forward to Dan Patrick weaseling out of paying the reward.

[TwitchySeal]

JOINT STATEMENT FROM ELECTIONS INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT COORDINATING COUNCIL & THE ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR COORDINATING EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES


"There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."

[eddie13]

SM will you escrow my bet funds for me and send them out or return them as necessary?
I got some of my old stuff out and tested ready to go and just don't want to worry about being able to get around to it anymore.. And let me know what extra to put on the TX to cover miner fees for distribution (twitchy/nutildah) or return (if I win)..

Sign your staked identity so I know it's you and give me an escrow receiving address and I'll pop it over there..

Edit: Actually it's only going to work if the old chrome app still works, because it seems I have a shit show on my hands with old firmware and this new ledger live BS.. 

[NotATether]

VOTER FRAUD IN PENNSYLVANIA!!!!#@!#@$

[...] a man in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, was arrested after allegedly asking for an absentee ballot for his dead mother so he could vote for President Donald Trump.

The 67-year-old man was apprehended last month, WTAJ reported on Oct. 21. Election officials said the example demonstrated how the system worked in spotting and stopping alleged fraud.

I look forward to Dan Patrick weaseling out of paying the reward.

The irony is that Trump claims there's voter fraud in favor of Biden, while this guy did fraud to vote for Trump...

[nullius]

[...] a man in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, was arrested after allegedly asking for an absentee ballot for his dead mother so he could vote for President Donald Trump.

The irony is that Trump claims there's voter fraud in favor of Biden, while this guy did fraud to vote for Trump...

Is there even an allegation (let alone evidence) that such fraud was organized, systematic, and/or widespread on the Trump side?  Or is it simply a matter of some idiot deciding to try to cheat, as idiots do every day?

#justsaying

[suchmoon]

SM will you escrow my bet funds for me and send them out or return them as necessary?

Sure thing.

Address: 1A8DePhATaFEyNBJpuybCA8oYUUZEgUraP
Message: eddie13, read your PMs. This is suchmoon 2020-11-14.
Signature: G2a6tJRIVK99kop3wzeG39QExVg1iMmrzUxvnn7Y7Qj+VaQd2L4cWS6A4CKrArArVehg2Cb5sF9gW4iRtcWgmTM=

Address staked here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=996318.msg40261816#msg40261816

Send funds to the address signed in the OP: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb

[iamsheikhadil]

Congrats Suchmoon for the win it was an election which was really unpredictable because incumbent presidents rarely loses. Times are extraordinary and although my guts said Biden will win, didn't listen to it because of 2016 flashbacks

I'm sure Trump will be returning for 2024 election, so there is a possibility again for another bet xD

[nullius]

SM will you escrow

Sure thing.

Congrats Suchmoon for the win

Everyone being allowed to learn to read, ruineth in the long run not only writing but also thinking.

I have considered simply paying up on my own bet.  It is a charity bet; and I don’t like having this hang on unsettled.  But then, I still think that Trump may win; and I have even considered offering a new bet similar to PrimeNumber7’s.  If the wager is to have any meaning (or fun, which is the only point of this for me), it must be settled correctly on the outcome (and n.b. that in case of dispute, I did specify upfront a wait-and-see resolution).

I suppose that I will just need to wait this out.  By the time the Americans get their election in order, 0.01 BTC will be worth enough to buy a small island...

[bryant.coleman]

First of all, congratulations for Suchmoon. But then I have a lot of respect for eddie13 as well. He went for a bet in favor of Trump, when most of the election sites gave him less than a 1 in 10 chance. And despite all this, Trump came very close to a win. 

I'm sure Trump will be returning for 2024 election, so there is a possibility again for another bet xD

LOL.. this is very unlikely. Even before the elections, there were rumors that Trump would say goodbye to the United States, if he loses the election. But still, I expect him to campaign for the Georgia senate election runoffs, as these two seats are very crucial for the GOP. If they win both the seats, then they will be having 52-48 advantage over Democrats. As per the current leads, Democrat majority has been decimated in the senate. Earlier the Democrats had a 232-197 advantage and this time it will be around 220-215. GOP gained a number of suburban seats which they lost in 2018, thanks to the Democrats fielding ultra-leftist and hyperliberal candidates.

[suchmoon]

I'm sure Trump will be returning for 2024 election, so there is a possibility again for another bet xD

I'd love to but no one seems to want to bet on Trump, go figure...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5208356.msg55556354#msg55556354

when most of the election sites gave him less than a 1 in 10 chance.

No, the odds were much closer than that back then and may have even been to Trump's favor at some point during the year since. Keep in mind that at the time of the bet we didn't even know who the Democratic nominee was going to be. Some bookies were quoting odds for Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama.

[eddie13]

I guess we are only going to do the escrow thing for twitchy and nutildah for now, and I’ll get back to my setup later this afternoon when I can..

[eddie13]

SM will you escrow my bet funds for me and send them out or return them as necessary?

Sure thing.

Address: 1A8DePhATaFEyNBJpuybCA8oYUUZEgUraP
Message: eddie13, read your PMs. This is suchmoon 2020-11-14.
Signature: G2a6tJRIVK99kop3wzeG39QExVg1iMmrzUxvnn7Y7Qj+VaQd2L4cWS6A4CKrArArVehg2Cb5sF9gW4iRtcWgmTM=

Address staked here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=996318.msg40261816#msg40261816

Send funds to the address signed in the OP: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

[suchmoon]

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

[eddie13]

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

Addy is good.. Keep the change..
Recommended fees are ridiculous right now..

[BayAreaCoins]

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

Addy is good.. Keep the change..
Recommended fees are ridiculous right now..

Ignore the "Time" in the photo below.  It is WRONG too.  4sat fees confirm next block the past few days.



Do NOT use the Bitcoin Core fee estimator tools... use your eyes/brains.

Bitcoin Core tries to drive in Sunday traffic with Friday's data.... so so so stupid.

There are MUCH better ways to estimate send fees.

[eddie13]

c4a192981cec8591c801da6ccf693ba727f0cf92e87491ae851d8f26941d154b

Got it. Please confirm if the address below is the one where I should reimburse to if Trumps wins (feels funny typing that). Actually all three of you please confirm your addresses because it's not quite clear if the ones you posted earlier in the thread were just used for signing or for receiving funds as well.

If Trump loses the EC vote I'll send 0.01 each to nutildah and TwitchySeal and if anything remains after fees - back to eddie13.

nutildah's address: 19fZGJAsampH3UEMp5WroX3Y6eUU1tdA7B
TwitchySeal's address: 1JqxhKj4CdRqFb7mGdXVMYTMy1MQ5qShsn
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

Addy is good.. Keep the change..
Recommended fees are ridiculous right now..

Ignore the "Time" in the photo below.  It is WRONG too.  4sat fees confirm next block the past few days.



Do NOT use the Bitcoin Core fee estimator tools... use your eyes/brains.

Bitcoin Core tries to drive in Sunday traffic with Friday's data.... so so so stupid.

There are MUCH better ways to estimate send fees.

You’re right.. Pretty sure I tipped the crap out of some miners..
The one I looked at recommended 300 sat per byte, like omg..
And I had a lot of stuff to get done so I just paid it..
Oh well..

[DaveF]

You’re right.. Pretty sure I tipped the crap out of some miners..
The one I looked at recommended 300 sat per byte, like omg..
And I had a lot of stuff to get done so I just paid it..
Oh well..

https://mempool.space/ is a good place to look to figure out fees.
Gives you just about everything you need in a nice pretty picture.

As for the bet, there are still some books out there taking action.
Terrible odds and fees but I did find it interesting that you can still put money out there.

-Dave

[BADecker]

This has been going on for years... this kind of election fraud. Since Trump is draining the Swamp in other areas, he might as well drain the Swamp here, as well.


Sidney Powell with Eric Bolling on the accuracy of Dominion voting machines

Sidney Powell, the former federal prosecutor, goes one-on-one with Eric Bolling to weigh in on what you need to know about Dominion voting machines and the future of our election results.

Sidney Powell with Eric Bolling on the accuracy of Dominion voting machines

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNX1GpM8izs

[squatz1]

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

Fair enough.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?

So you made all of that money after the 5% fee?

Just as a question, because I've never personally used PredictIT do they spell it out pretty clearly when buying the 'yes' or 'no' portion of the bet that they will be charging you that 5%? I feel like they don't really push it enough, and people are just told that they can make some 'free money' on this platform without taking into account the fees.

It's like the markets (I think this was one of them) where you could bet as to if Kanye would win or something along those lines. You may be able to make 5% on the 'no' side, but all of that is going to go to PredictIt anyway. Plus you're going to be further losing when it comes to credit card fees and such.

[suchmoon]

So you made all of that money after the 5% fee?

Just as a question, because I've never personally used PredictIT do they spell it out pretty clearly when buying the 'yes' or 'no' portion of the bet that they will be charging you that 5%? I feel like they don't really push it enough, and people are just told that they can make some 'free money' on this platform without taking into account the fees.

It's like the markets (I think this was one of them) where you could bet as to if Kanye would win or something along those lines. You may be able to make 5% on the 'no' side, but all of that is going to go to PredictIt anyway. Plus you're going to be further losing when it comes to credit card fees and such.

There are two different fees: profit fee (10%) and withdrawal fee (5%). Profit fee is mostly bearable because you pay it only if you win and only on the winnings. So if you bet $80, win  $100, you pay $2. The only caveat is that you don't get a fee refund on losses so might wanna be careful rolling over some losing positions.

Withdrawal fee sucks bigly. Basically you have to pay it win or lose, on the whole amount. Which means you need to make at least +5% to break even. The good thing (and probably part of the reason for this fee) is that they accept credit card deposits. So with a 2% credit card cashback it's slightly less horrible.

But of course you can keep betting as much as you like before withdrawing... which is I think what most people are doing there, particularly with these really stupid bets like Trump winning the popular vote. Bet, wait for it to pump a few cents, sell, rinse and repeat. There is a $800 limit per market per person, and max 5000 traders per market, so some of the most popular markets like Dem vs Rep president are full... but there are others like "South Carolina Dem Primary winner elected president", which is basically the same thing. And all trade around 1:9 instead of 1:99 as it should. Insanity.