For how long can we actually mine ?

[Searing]

... Things are actually a lot less profitable than they seem, unless bitcoin price breaks all expectations to the upside - industrial mining may end way sooner than we think.

What you said above: "Things are actually a lot less profitable than they seem, unless bitcoin price breaks all expectations to the upside." That is the most mystifying thing that concerns me. With prices of BTC, in particular, this low, you'd think those big players (other than maybe Bitmain and Innsilicon who make the 'toasters') would be stepping back and buying BTC with the halving coming up in May 2020, I think it is. Instead, buying BTC seems to be very light, HODL'ing is kinda unchanged, but equipment from ASIC makers is flying off the shelves and way overpriced IMHO. So if you are betting on a BTC price pump that justifies your equipment..my question is why? IF you are not a big ASIC maker or Player like Bitmain.

Is the angle simply that this is NEWBIES that have skipped home mining and now are betting big on data halls and such mining, much like I was a clueless newbie in 2013 and just should have gotten BTC instead of hardware? Betting as we all did as newbies on equipment when we did not know any better, but these folk jumping in seem to have a lot more discretionary cash for dubious ASIC miners IMHO. Go figure?

2) They are so sure of (1) above that they are piling on the ASIC equipment hype/bandwagon, mainly because they see a big pump and ASIC machines for the non-mnfg's of such, just drying up when it all goes Moon? (I really, hope (2) is true) Also, been there and done that back in the day.

3) It is all just 'mad' hype without rime or reason and ASIC makers are (as usual) just playing all the miners buying such 7nm stuff now, like a frigging Banjo? Only the future will tell I guess.  But I find it frigging amazing the $$$ folks are now spending on ASIC's at the inflated prices for the meager amount of money daily after electric and fees for this 'gamble' IMHO. I mean in the Innsilicon post above, manufacturers would lower prices accordingly. I mean really (previous post) an Innsilicon A3 for $2k that loses more than a $1 a day out of the box?

Anyway, for the non-big Bitmain types, folks just have to really, really think that they have to get ASIC's now because the having is gonna pump BTC to the moon and the pool of such will dry up. Again, bigger balls than I have, but I sure hope these 'well-off' bigger newbies pushing ASIC sales all the luck that I can, because in no way will I mind missing this ASIC parade if it goes where they think it going. (I spend a lot of my life on and off Bitcointalk very confused on what the hell is going on with crypto. I mean frigging really?)

Good to have a hobby, befuddling though it may be.

Brad

[stompix]

For how long can we actually mine ?

Well, till we wake up Durin's Bane, at which point we're #%$!
Now joking aside..

... but I love to speculate how will mining be like by then??

This is pure speculation, daydreaming, being totally positive ...

I think that at one point the big business in crypto will have no choice but to take care of a part of the burden involved in securing the chain.
When you're doing millions in trading, you're having thousands of users with your bitcoin card, you're getting millions in bets the last thing you want is this all of this to go down forever, not just the price going down as business will continue even with BTC at 1k, think Silkroad for example, but completely down with the chain unsecured and 51% making a mess of it and faith in cryptos fucked forever.

So, once there will be signs of dangers the big guys in this will have to protect their business.
Just like exxon is planting trees to calm the environmental activists or politicians like to "donate" things during holidays they will come with so-called nonprofits projects for the sake of decentralization, green energy mining and stuff like this sponsored by them as a great service they are willing to do for the community but strictly financially motivated which is the best motivation you can get.

This combined with also the dream of returning home miners might secure the same hash rate we're seeing now for a long period.
Oh, and don't forget the 21Inc toaster miners

But mining as a large business with tons of profits in 20-30 years, I don't see that possible!

[philipma1957]

Actually  there is opportunity for mining to remain for years.  But  companies will need to take advantage of government subsidies for renewable power such as solar.

Many places give solid solar deals with good subsidies.  A 100 acre solar farm with modern panels ground mounted can do 100,000 panels at 400 watts or 40,000,000 watts or 40 megawatts.

40 megawatts tied to the grid is about 6 megawatts 24/7/365  that is 367,920 megawatts yearly.  With proper planning  it is a no brainer.  Mining is not even the primary reason for building the solar farm  it is a tool used to develop the solar farm which is the real asset.

Yeah does it scale world wide no.

but it could certainly provide 6000  megawatts  for mining with large scale players.  That would only be 100,000 acres of land with ground mounts.

1 acre can do 1000 panels of 400 watts or 400,000kwatts or .4megawatts

100,000 x .4 = 40,000 megawatts /6.3 =  6300 megawatts   which  is about 15.75 eh at 40 watts a th

Many ground mounts could be placed over land fills or parking lots .  100,000 acres is about 1/7.7 of rhode island

776,957 acres
Total area is approximately 776,957 acres (3,144 km 2) Rhode Island state symbols The Flag of Rhode Island The Seal of Rhode Island

So if 1/7.7 of rhode island size can do 15.75 eh

an area the size of rhode  island  could do 121.75 eh

now to give an example of size  rhode island is about 776,957 acres

texas is 161,148,000 acres or 207 x the size of rhode island.

So growth  of solar  could easily  cover the network now.

the problem is transactions  and fees and price.

Bitcoin is yet to scale  this correctly.

Think like this.

Horses and wagons.
Cars and trucks.

Btc is at the horse and wagon stage  due to

transaction volume limits-fee limits-price

Time will tell  if price goes up to fix  the issue  or if the world moves on to a coin combo such as LTC-DOGE

I see  LTC-DOGE  as better setup  to move value around  then I see BTC-NMC or any other merged coin.

LTC-DOGE  is secure backed by lots of asics  moves value cheaper then BTC does moves value faster.