Extrapolating 2014 Correction: Could $6,500 Be The Low For Bitcoin?

[206 bones]

Absolutely not. We won't see the price drop under 8k every again. 8.2k to be more precise. The reason: people are more incentivise to hodl as we approach the halving. Every new low will be higher than the one before. In the last low the price dopped to 8.25k.

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[Wexlike]

Absolutely not. We won't see the price drop under 8k every again. 8.2k to be more precise. The reason: people are more incentivise to hodl as we approach the halving. Every new low will be higher than the one before. In the last low the price dopped to 8.25k.

Close with bitcoin halving look impossible bitcoin could down under $6,500 because today bitcoin have been above $8,500 and keep going on to higher price, depend how situation external of bitcoin if getting bad news maybe little possible bitcoin back to lower price and going down,

Nothing is "impossible" however we're building quite some good foundation right now with a sideways time correction. But it looks that we're leaving the upper band of the downward channel finally behind for good. And it seems to work as planned for my investment at the end of 2019.

[dragonvslinux]

Was $6,500 the swing low or does it look like we will go lower? I still see no evidence as to why we would break these lows, based on current probabilities.

Without regurgitating the same analysis as VPVR Part 1, that is based on a similar accumulation zone as the above chart, here is that updated TA:

Despite many people believing Bitcoin wouldn't return to this accumulation zone, we have now re-entered these price levels after briefly leaving this zone of suport.

Needless to say, I believe current prices are within the long-term macro accumulation levels, with $5.9K being the floor of this support. For all those who missed the accumulation zone last year, I believe the current sell off has provided us with another great opportunity to acquire Bitcoin at very reasonable prices. Furthermore, it's unsurprisingly that shorter-term bearish speculation has sold the top or this accumulation range (the break below $8,630), in order to buy back at the lower levels of the range. However, similar to last year, I find it unlikely that Bitcoin will reach the bottom of this accumulation zone, or lower lows than $6.4K, given the increasing volume support if prices continue to move lower.

"Everything is fine". BTFD

Furthermore, if the Fear & Greed Index is anything to go by (it usually is), this confirms that accumulating at current prices is not only within the long-term accumulation zone, but additionally at current oversold conditions, it would be doing so when the market is experiencing extreme fear, hence my relative greed right now. "Be greedy and others are fearful", from the infamous Bitcoin critic Warren Buffet.

[adaseb]

I stopped following the Fear and Greed indicator after the nasty crash we got in November 2018. Basically it was at the "Extreme fear" area many times like in Aug-Sept and Oct 2018 and it still went lower and when it went lower in November-December 2018 the indicators only slightly went below the prior low extreme fear number. So even though its low now it can still go lower.

Right now I still think in a month or so we can rally and hopefully retest the 2019 highs of $13.8K. I just think we went to $10.5K too fast and the funding rates and futures premiums all pointed to a nasty correction one day. Now with coronavirus it makes it a little worse because it adds to the fear. However we will see what happens in May 2020 for the halving.

[exstasie]

I stopped following the Fear and Greed indicator after the nasty crash we got in November 2018. Basically it was at the "Extreme fear" area many times like in Aug-Sept and Oct 2018 and it still went lower and when it went lower in November-December 2018 the indicators only slightly went below the prior low extreme fear number. So even though its low now it can still go lower.

It's similar to a momentum oscillator like RSI. You can't just buy when it hits oversold. If it were that simple, we'd all be rich.

I do think the index can offer some insight, especially when taken in combination with other sentiment indicators like active position data, open interest, interest rates, and overall social media + forum opinions. All these things together build a picture that tells us what everyone else in the market is doing.

[bearexin]

 I agree with Warren Buffett here, be greedy when others are fearful and right now bitcoin is seen as going down like hell by many people and a lot of them sells. Right now price looks perfect to buy for long term, if you are going to sell in the next couple of months maybe this is not the perfect place for you but if you can hold it for 12-18 months this is probably the best price you will find.

If you buy from here, I can almost guarantee that you will profit %30 in the next 1 to 1.5 years and that is a great return on your investment. Not many people could find this beautiful situations in investment world and dream of making this much money so I assume buying from here could be the best investment that could be done right now in all of financial world.

[fabiorem]

Are we going to see 5k or not? I'm not into DCA, I will only buy dips, but I need to make sure that level is really the dip.

[exstasie]

Are we going to see 5k or not? I'm not into DCA, I will only buy dips, but I need to make sure that level is really the dip.

Let the market convincingly break established weekly and monthly support levels in the $7,000s and $6,000s first before planning on $5K.

In fact, the 200-week MA is at $5,500 and rising. I doubt you'll be able to buy much below there at all.

If we do see the 200-week MA again, you'll have an extremely short time period to buy there. Most people will be too scared to pull the trigger, and will be waiting for $3K by then. They will end up buying much higher.

[JayJuanGee]

Are we going to see 5k or not? I'm not into DCA, I will only buy dips, but I need to make sure that level is really the dip.

Seems that you are going to miss opportunities when you consider the matter like that..

But, yeah, we have bounced around a lot in these prices previously, so sometimes if you have already bought in this price arena, then you might not be eager to buy here again.

I personally still believe that odds are against going below our current $6,425 low from December; however, if prices get below $7k, then the odds of revisiting $6,425 become much greater.

Also, there are a few kinds of investors, and some are merely waiting for perceived bargains which could be because they already have coins or could be because they are skeptical of BTC.. and others are just stacking along the way, but they do not want to stack at prices that they have already stacked.

I recall quite a few people who missed the train because they are waiting too much, so in early 2017 when BTC prices were dipping from $1.7k-ish to nearly $800, there were some folks waiting for $500, so they ended up missing out by waiting for BTC prices that never ended up coming or even coming close to returning to those levels.. .and shit, would have been lucky to get prices under $3k after that, and even our dip in 2018 did not bring sub $3k prices like so many fence sitters were anticipating..

Here's the chance for $5k.. wait, wait, wait, and don't DCA... and get fucked by trying to be more greedy than prudent... 

When I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I frequently asserted that prudent BTC investing timelines should be at least 2 years, but with the passage of time, it seems that 4 years or more would be our current BTC investing timelines... so it is likely not going to make much difference if you buy BTC at $8k-ish or if you were to get a sub $6.4k opportunity, but that is just my DCA and incrementalism imbedded thinking which has done quite well for me over the past 6+ years of buying our lil friends and HODLing through tough times (and maybe picking up a few more here or there without necessarily waiting for the maximum dip.. but just making sure that I have more money if the price dips lower than my previous buy price).

[exstasie]

I recall quite a few people who missed the train because they are waiting too much, so in early 2017 when BTC prices were dipping from $1.7k-ish to nearly $800, there were some folks waiting for $500, so they ended up missing out by waiting for BTC prices that never ended up coming or even coming close to returning to those levels.. .and shit, would have been lucky to get prices under $3k after that, and even our dip in 2018 did not bring sub $3k prices like so many fence sitters were anticipating..

Been there, done that.

Years ago I had this mindset like "the market has to hit my perfectly charted level before it can go up!" No, the market doesn't give a shit about your chart or what you think is going to happen.

It took a long time to shift away from making predictions (and becoming biased by them) and towards reacting to the market. Fence sitting is fine if you can actually recognize when market conditions are changing and then get in.

What most people do is fence sit during bear markets then wait in denial for months and months while a new bull market becomes obvious. Then they start saying things like "I missed the boat" and refuse to buy in for that reason. Then they wait for one more dip that never comes. Markets are so funny.

This is why DCA is a good idea for most people. They are too scared to buy bear market bottoms, they are too scared to buy into bull markets, and when they finally do give in out of greed, they buy the top!