WO Replies vs Bitcoin Tracking - Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 - 2019

[VB1001]

Wall Observer is the Bitcointalk thread with the most visits and page views of the forum, at present: Replies > 491,653  Views > 21,288,327.

I've been "observing" the relationship in the replies and BTC price all year.

In this thread I have published the results of Q1 and Q2, later Q3 / Q4.



Therefore, we have a record related to the price and visit data, it is not an indicator for a market strategy, but it reflects a fairly real view of the market trend.



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

[1714928852]

1714928852

[VB1001]

Q3 Q4

[DeathAngel]

Over 21 million views is incredible really, it really is the best, most interesting thread on the entire forum. Great work by the way OP.

I think the WO thread is really active when the trend is really bullish but I guess that speaks for the forum as a whole. Certainly the most interesting, fun posters I have come across reside in the WO.

[VB1001]

I think the WO thread is really active when the trend is really bullish.

In fact, in periods with strong bullish ATH visits / views and responses increase considerably but in periods with strong ATL also (Dec-2018 / Replies 9311 - BTC 3800 for example), this graphic with 2018 is perfectly appreciated.

In bearish or bullish lateral periods the data stabilizes.

The thread WO has a life of its own, day and night, all year round 24/7.

[VB1001]

2019 - Data:

Code:

      Wall Observer BTC/USD	      Replies   +/- Replies   	Views	  BTC Value end Month

2019 Jan / Wall Observer BTC/USD  -   452.916    >  6,406     21.006.158	 3,459
2019 Feb / Wall Observer BTC/USD  -   459.605    >  6.689     21.042.628	 3,901
2019 Mar / Wall Observer BTC/USD  -   465.823    >  6.218     21.079.099     	 4,103
2019 Apr / Wall Observer BTC/USD  -   473.225    >  7.402     21.133.357     	 5,270
2019 May / Wall Observer BTC/USD  -   480.783    >  7.558     21.193.583     	 8,501
2019 Jun / Wall Observer BTC/USD  -   488.192    >  7.409     21.256.108     	11,262
2019 Jul / Wall Observer BTC/USD  -   493.567    >  5.375     21.307.690     	10,052

[Theb]

I think it's fair to say that even if the price ir rising the number of posts in that thread remains stable whether or not BTC is increasing. I guess its due to the fact that Wall Observer has all the users' signature disabled and their posts in that board wouldn't count on their campaigns that is why they just resort to posting threads of their own in the Speculation board rather than keep the conversation going in that thread. The good thing is WO has eliminated people who aren't really interested in keeping track of BTC's price movement.

[Kasabus]

WO thread replies just definitely follow with the price action of bitcoin, just like this forum entirely when bitcoin is bearish, there's less people that are active and sign ups compared to when the situation is bullish.

If the thread replies and price of bitcoin has some relevance in prediction the crypto market, I would love to be educated.

[el kaka22]

If the thread replies and price of bitcoin has some relevance in prediction the crypto market, I would love to be educated.

It is obvious that people will cry for data out of FOMO when they find bitcoin market is bullish. Bullish market and FOMO are related in recursive consequence which mostly ends up in bubble. I believe that you do not need to consider this as a perfect metric for foreseeing the market trends as both people's activity and market up-surge are happening at a same time frame hence you cannot make use of this statistics for your decision making.

You may keep checking on other knowledge resources like news on institutional funds movements or government policy changes or revolutions in bitcoin mining as these are the actual drivers of bitcoin markets and everyone must get educated on these.

[VB1001]

Q3 and Q4 completed, we have finished the year with the price of BTC x2.

- Jan 2019 $3,459
- Dec 2019 $7,161

Dominance BTC: 68%

Hopefully 2020 is better.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Q3 and Q4 completed, we have finished the year with the price of BTC x2.

- Jan 2019 $3,459
- Dec 2019 $7,161

Dominance BTC: 68%

Hopefully 2020 is better.

Another x 2 for the price by this time next year would be good enough for me as we build up towards moon launch at some point in 2021

[beerlover]

It looks like there was basically no relations at all? I mean from looking at how much replies there have been in the 2019 it was around the same number of posts and replies whereas bitcoin moved so much, maybe there is a small correlation on how people talk when the price is low and not talk when they are making money but in the end it is a very very small correlation and it is purely speculative as well.

When I look at the graphs all I see is people don't really talk that little or too much depending on the price so much, they just have an average of reply counts and they are somewhere in the vicinity of that number every single quarter no matter what the price is, the difference is bitcoin is mostly stagnant this year as well even tho it is doubled, it just skyrocketed once and mostly stayed similar as well.

[VB1001]

Another x 2 for the price by this time next year would be good enough for me as we build up towards moon launch at some point in 2021

Completely agree with you.

<...>

Yes, I expected to see more relationship in the ups and downs.
In the 2018 chart, it looks better when there is an important movement.
I will update with more data.