It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[philipma1957]

will set it up in about 10 hours.

[1714028361]

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[philipma1957]

reserved.

[philipma1957]

feel free to make guesses and or predictions.

we will move to about 13.6 diff. on Jan 1.

my guess for dec 31 2020 is under 25 maybe under 20.

lot of factors for 2020.

new gear coming?

5nm due in april may or june.

1/2 ing in april or may

price.

[mikeywith]

my guess for dec 31 2020 is under 25 maybe under 20.

My guess is BTC price will be at around 30,000$ by dec 2020 , 60% of mining gears will be S17 (or equivalent), 40% will be a mix of the new 5NM and old S9s or the like for those who have free power, I also believe difficulty will rise close to 30T based on both price increment and gears efficiency. You might say halving will make it a bit harder, that's true, but if BTC price does 400% , it doesn't really matter much if rewards are cut in half.

Anyway, we still have a long way to go, allow me to post the first screenshot in this thread



we are 6 blocks away from the first difficulty adjustment in 2020 (610847).

[philipma1957]

well if coins move to 30k all is well with btc.

lets hope you are correct.

[wndsnb]

A few months ago I thought we'd be at 16T diff by now so 13.8T is a nice surprise. Gives me some hope that the 10 series Canaan miners I bought last year might get close to breaking even. Still need a good bull run before the halving for that to happen though, probably was not a wise purchase with my current hosting fees. I got more S17s and S17 pros than the Avalon gear so not a bit hit. Too bad Canaan didn't give coupons/credit like Bitmain did.

20T to 25T diff at the end of 2020 seems overly optimistic. It doesn't look like the efficiency increase (looking like 20% for next generation 5nm) is going to make as much of an impact as large players with super cheap power. These 1000 MW farms in the works must be in the sub 4 cent range. They can buy up all the S9s that are super cheap now and bump the nethash up a lot. If they get newer equipment it will be a huge increase.

30K would be nice...

[Philopolymath]

By now experienced miners should recognize the trend that profitability will ALWAYS reduce to the bare minimum margins acceptable by large farm

It is no coincidence that the price ALWAYS reduces to match the efficiency improvements and hovers nears the costs of 10c electricity.
Notice the new gear is already useless to mine at anything over 10 cents/KwHr
Again that is NOT an accident....

So THAT is the agreed level acceptable such that large investors can sustain the monopoly without large losses
Even at that level most ops still mine at a loss but recover profit by local tax write offs that mere mortals won't be privileged to..

Seems obvious to me that the price is being artificially supported by large whales. Giant centralized private farms make up over 50% of the hash rate.
Public pools who service other large miner ops fill in most of the other 50%
Smalltime individuals represent a minuscule portion of the hashrate

That means mining is and has been in the hands of BIG BUSINESS for a LONG time...

But WHY?
China is by far the largest HOLDER of Bitcoins...WHY?
China is also the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.....

Bitcoin is an insurance policy to protect the MASSIVE VAST DEBT it holds from US dollar depreciation
EVERY hit the US makes on the Chinese economy gets met with a large dump of US bonds and a spike in Bitcoin.
EVERY concession made to China coincides with a large DUMP of Bitcoin converted into Chinese RMB and US bonds/stocks.

ONLY this kind of massive volume can sway the price significantly....irrespective of the public Bitcoin holders/market actions.

China is completely committed and compliant with the US to maintain and protect the current FIAT monetary system controlled by the B.I.S.
However this loyalty comes with a price that the US must cede a larger portion of the money monopoly they have used to exploit China.
The US political system is currently divided into the 2 camps ...one wishes to maintain the gravy train the other knows the US is fucked and are desperately trying to ride China's coattails during the shift of power.
Neither can afford to have Bitcoin threaten the system.

ANY significant price increase can ONLY come from a MASSIVE purchase (BILLIONS!)...And who would do that? Why?

EVERY large bag holder knows ANY significant jump will only give an opportunity for weak to cash out.....Speculators and exchanges will be MOST eager to take some profit.
Often this is a PLANNED subsidy injected to the market by FREE worthless FIAT to suck in new investors and keep the illusion of value afloat.

The is a standard practice in the stock market.

The top ten wallets hold more than 85% of ALL BITCOIN ever mined....funny how that is same ratio that the Big Banks hold of the worlds FIAT and DEBT!.

The next halving event will eliminate the remaining competition and complete the planned takeover of the Bitcoin threat.

Bitcoin will always exist but will be reduced (Has already been) to being a novelty commodity for investors like Silver or Gold that individuals may see some gains but have no real effect on the market.

[philipma1957]

Not quite sure  if you are on topic, but  you do have a few interesting points.

I look back at 2019  and I wonder  if the negative viewpoint you push is what happens for 2020.

2019  was a mixed bag.  Our team  earn more then 8 coins  but spent a lot to do so.  I am 62 and will be 63 very soon.

I own a piece of 1.9ph   and  I am not sure I want to keep doing this.  It has become a job for me  at a time I don't feel healthy enough to do the job.

Some days I completely agree with just about all you wrote.  Other days I wonder will a strong pump happen.

Fundamentally a digital coin is very much interchangeable.

BTC + NMC  merged mined  is not very different then LTC and Doge coin merge mined.

In fact  doge is clearly better then  NMC.

I will  continue mining but  2020 may see me reduce all gear  to a few small machines.  I will decide sooner then July.

[windjc]

[...]

Funny thing is people were saying the same thing in 2016 and before that in 2012 and in 2010 people didn't even spend the energy to say the things, thinking no one cared anyway. So you are in a long tradition my friend, welcome.

[...]

These are the emotions even "old-timers" experience near a bottom. Its really funny how many people swear bitcoin is DED. I mean less than five years ago it was at $200. Now its dying at $7k.

[philipma1957]

Diff is up 10%

Latest Block:   611436  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   110.6349%  (589 / 532.38 expected, 56.62 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   13798783827516.42XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 14519223710181 and 15322533664738
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.2210% and +11.0426%
Previous Retarget:   last Wednesday at 4:34 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 14, 2020 at 8:17 AM  (in 8d 22h 58m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 15, 2020 at 12:27 AM  (in 9d 15h 9m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 15h 42m 6s and 13d 7h 53m 3s

still early

coins are 7431 at coinbase.

So coins are at 8094  

Diff will be over 8%

Latest Block:   612691  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.1512%  (1844 / 1705.02 expected, 138.98 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   13798783827516.42XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 14931684374982 and 14940678728686
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.2101% and +8.2753%
Previous Retarget:   January 1, 2020 at 4:34 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 3:15 PM  (in 1d 2h 30m 21s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 3:26 PM  (in 1d 2h 41m 25s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 40m 34s and 12d 22h 51m 37s

7148 Jan 1 price  8094 Jan 13 price a 13.23% price jump  good move.

diff jump around 8.2%

this is an excellent epoch for us miners.  13.2-8.2 = 5%  in miners favor.

I can work with this.

Latest Block:   612851  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   106.9015%  (2004 / 1874.62 expected, 129.38 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   13798783827516.42XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 14766476286447 and 14766512978442
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.0129% and +7.0131%
Previous Retarget:   January 1, 2020 at 4:34 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:53 PM  (in 0d 1h 52m 15s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:53 PM  (in 0d 1h 52m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 2h 18m 28s and 13d 2h 18m 31s

So  about 7% jump in diff

and about 22% price jump

22-7 = 15%  net gain in favor of miners.

14th miner  at 100 watts a th  it earns about  2.16   after adjustment it will earn 2.01

10 cent power =  $3.36
 9                         3.02
 8                         2.68
 7                         2.35
 6                         2.02   2.01  breakeven     this is after the jump of 7%
 5                         1.68
 4                         1.34
 3                         1.01

[windjc]

I have a colleague I trust who has been studying this for years now. He predicts that at the top of the next 4 year bull run cycle, mining hashrate will be at 80 gigawatts and the minimum mining price will be around $50k/btc. He believes BTC price will land somewhere between $140k-$220k at the next ATH.

He points to things like this : https://www.coindesk.com/sbi-gmo-to-rent-capacity-at-massive-bitcoin-mine-in-texas-report

and also to Bitmains goal of selling 30 million new miners in the next 2 years. If they hit that goal, and maintain 75% market share, it would equate with 80 gigawatts of power on the network.

I know smaller miners I talk to laugh at the idea that mining growth has an effect on price, but one can argue, looking historically, that mining/price relationship is like the chicken/egg scenario. He makes the argument that during bull runs, miners fomo into mining - they can't help themselves - they buy as much or more than they can afford as profitability outpaces hash. Eventually hash piles up too and price goes down.  But the hash stays mostly in creating a new much higher price floor. Then the cycle begins all over again.

He believes as mining evolves the larger players will become utility owners and governments. The big farms in that article will become common place and new bigger farms will emerge.

[philipma1957]

I have a colleague I trust who has been studying this for years now. He predicts that at the top of the next 4 year bull run cycle, mining hashrate will be at 80 gigawatts and the minimum mining price will be around $50k/btc. He believes BTC price will land somewhere between $140k-$220k at the next ATH.

He points to things like this : https://www.coindesk.com/sbi-gmo-to-rent-capacity-at-massive-bitcoin-mine-in-texas-report

and also to Bitmains goal of selling 30 million new miners in the next 2 years. If they hit that goal, and maintain 75% market share, it would equate with 80 gigawatts of power on the network.

I know smaller miners I talk to laugh at the idea that mining growth has an effect on price, but one can argue, looking historically, that mining/price relationship is like the chicken/egg scenario. He makes the argument that during bull runs, miners fomo into mining - they can't help themselves - they buy as much or more than they can afford as profitability outpaces hash. Eventually hash piles up too and price goes down.  But the hash stays mostly in creating a new much higher price floor. Then the cycle begins all over again.

He believes as mining evolves the larger players will become utility owners and governments. The big farms in that article will become common place and new bigger farms will emerge.

There is a gear factor for sure. Bitmain surely wants to sell.

Of course bsv and bch can use the same gear.

[mikeywith]

I have seen some crazy projected difficulty adjustment, but nothing like this before



https://diff.cryptothis.com/

we are 160 blocks ahead

Code:

F2Pool
1,281,873	12.63708921 BTC	6 minutes ago	0000000000000000001009d059df5becbfb65a073718ec73969d35a7cb1b10a9
613,167	
unknown
1,353,706	12.65998601 BTC	13 minutes ago	0000000000000000000b5161489a8d18e85ba4bf4ddb69a2a243e6ebbe9e3db4
613,166	
F2Pool
1,500,208	12.81117732 BTC	14 minutes ago	00000000000000000011b8688af08eacb8591e709b8bb0433be1760e51d2767d
613,165	
AntPool
20,655	12.50370549 BTC	50 minutes ago	0000000000000000000ed706f5e1b4ad65145c072a8ab42eb6c467811ae75314
613,164	
ViaBTC
22,323	12.50364897 BTC	50 minutes ago	0000000000000000000d9c7f9f1934167873552bf804ba226ed05e8e28f04c17
613,163	
BytePool
262,339	12.53709136 BTC	51 minutes ago	0000000000000000000fabefbc5416f391aa3be1589402df1e4d7e949965fbe7
613,162	
SlushPool
137,925	12.52002615 BTC	54 minutes ago	00000000000000000005fc8d1e22afdf65fa450e6820207e7db035ea94c65f9a
613,161	
Huobi.pool
131,222	12.51280095 BTC	55 minutes ago	000000000000000000067375d85f8283986c6be0052597aae8505af0cae6d155
613,160	
Poolin
513,478	12.53935550 BTC	56 minutes ago	0000000000000000000db13897c775451160cf542c5d9bdcae36f93c370fa9f5
613,159	
Poolin
1,318,442	12.71738595 BTC	58 minutes ago	0000000000000000000590a2cc248f51f686a8cb8b8ab841c6c241241d05ceba

from https://btc.com/

we are doing 1 block a minute, 2 blocks a minute at some points!, not sure what is actually happening, but am sure we will slow down big time, let's wait and see how things go.

[philipma1957]

some glitch on your part or the websites part

Latest Block:   613176  (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   107.9554%  (313 / 289.93 expected, 23.07 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15097666737185 and 15962435296108
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.1744% and +8.0268%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 27, 2020 at 5:55 PM  (in 10d 22h 55m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 28, 2020 at 11:35 AM  (in 11d 16h 35m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 23h 14m 22s and 13d 16h 54m 30s

[mikeywith]

some glitch on your part or the websites part

Are you sure? How about now?



https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Allow me to do a manual calcuation, it won't be 100% accurete, but at least 98% , which will be enough to elimiate the "glitch" possibility.

Last block of the previous difficulty was block number 612,863 , and the first block of the current target is block 612,864

block 612,864 was mined at exactly 2020-01-14 23:42 GMT , it's now 2020-01-17 12:31 GMT  so we have 24+24+12 hours (here is where the calculation loses a bit of it's accuracy but keep on reading please)

EDIT: I made a mistake here, it's 2020-01-18 12:31 not 2020-01-17 12:31. more explanation on the second post.

So we have just about 61.5 hours , 61.5*6 = 369 blocks, as I type we should be mining block 612,864+369 =  613233 however, we are now at block 613,404 , in other words we are 171 blocks ahead.

We are at 171 : 369 = 46% ahead, it's very unlikely that we will keep up with this base, but this proves that there is no glitch here.



https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

We got to as high as 136.5E , we remained above 130E for a while, Phill, please do correct me if i am wrong. Thanks.

[wndsnb]

Maybe try a different browser, we are 34.58 blocks ahead, not 170.

136EH would bring us to 19E diff, 100EH would settle to about 14T diff, so if we keep oscillating between the two we'll end up at around 16.5T diff.

Here are #s at current diff:



Here are #s at 16.5T

[mikeywith]

Maybe try a different browser, we are 34.58 blocks ahead, not 170.

if we are only 34 ahead then the estimated blocks should be 514 blocks as appears on your image, 514*10mins/60 = 85 hours or 3.5 days, it's now


2:08 PM
Saturday, January 18, 2020


block 612,863 was mined at exactly 2020-01-14 23:40 GMT

2020-01-18 14:08 - 2020-01-14 23:40 = 3.5 days or about 520 blocks, which is means it's true that we are just 34.5 ahead and not 170, I have to double check my previous calculation.

I figured out what was going wrong, it was not my browser, it was not a glitch, it was just the date on my PC , it was 1 day behind, it was set on 17th when today is actually 18th. cryptothis.com uses my PC's date and  time to calculate the expected blocks, but it uses it's date and time and probably full node to track current block numbers, so the final calculation was less expected blocks and more blocks ahead.

to further elaborate on the matter, I purposely changed my PC's date to 15th and I got this



When I fix the date and time, I get the real normal results.



And just for fun and to please my eyes, I set the date to 20 and obviously I got the calculations we all want to see.



TL;DR https://diff.cryptothis.com/ uses your PC local time, if it's not accurate - you get inaccurate results.

[philipma1957]

cool you were freaking me out.

i was having a lot of conspiracy thoughts.  about this.

We cracked 9000

and diff has slipped to 3.9%

Latest Block:   613470  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   103.8811%  (607 / 584.32 expected, 22.68 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15066742971008 and 15354888290552
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.9651% and +3.9152%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   January 28, 2020 at 6:07 AM  (in 9d 10h 3m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest):   January 28, 2020 at 12:15 PM  (in 9d 16h 11m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 11h 26m 48s and 13d 17h 34m 43s

I could use this  to be true at the next jump  9k price and 15.0t diff.

[wndsnb]

Now at $9150, cracked the 200 day moving average. Break-even for a 90 W/TH S9 is now at 7c. Might see some S9s get turned back on if this keeps up...

[philipma1957]

Now at $9150, cracked the 200 day moving average. Break-even for a 90 W/TH S9 is now at 7c. Might see some S9s get turned back on if this keeps up...

Well if we are now moving up to match ½ ing we could approach 13,800.00 In March