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Author Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.  (Read 14606 times)
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March 27, 2020, 01:40:06 AM
Last edit: March 27, 2020, 11:27:15 AM by frodocooper
Merited by frodocooper (3), philipma1957 (2)
 #201

Yeah, it seems like we might see a bunch of gear get turned back on. Could be a delay though because people are still freaking out about the virus.

I'm still waiting on a block at kano's pool. Estimated 47 days until the halving and we're down to 11PH. If the average diff till then is 15T then I have about 50% chance to get 1 or more blocks, 15% to get 2 or more, 3% to get 3 or more. Looking like my gamble to move over from viabtc is most likely going to be a looser. 2 blocks between now and the halving at the current pool hashrate would put me ahead though. If nothing else, at least I'm not sending my hash off to the evil empire....


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March 27, 2020, 01:48:49 AM
 #202

Well it is early but we are way up.  Does not surprise me one bit. Price is right around 6800  and the next 2 weeks will be a bargain mining as even s9's make money at 5 cents.

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March 27, 2020, 02:08:10 AM
 #203

Slush had a real nice run with the drop.  At least 5 blocks in the last 3 hours.  Pool scoring hash rate also took a big jump. Currently at 5.489Eh/s when it was hovering around 4.5 a few days ago. 

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March 27, 2020, 03:48:26 AM
Last edit: March 27, 2020, 11:27:50 AM by frodocooper
 #204

Stay safe Phil and wife..... so much sadness on TV on covid19 situation in US.

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March 27, 2020, 12:19:38 PM
 #205

Stay safe Phil and wife..... so much sadness on TV on covid19 situation in US.

USA is number 1!  not that we want to be number 1.

STATE_______CASES________DEATHS
New York....... 38,987............    432       my state of birth
New Jersey.....  6,876............      81       my current state of residence
California........ 4,060.............     82
Washington....  3,208.............   151
Michigan........  2,878.............     63
Illinois...........  2,538.............     26
Florida...........  2,477.............     28
Massachusetts. 2,417.............     25
Louisiana........ 2,305.............     83
Pennsylvania... 1,690.............     16   note this was base on New York Times March 27 data


   I don't like the numbers. above.  My wife got sick Dec 26-28.  Was put in the Hospital Jan 13-16.  They Released her with a cough.

 I was sick from Dec 29 to Jan 17.  Here we are in late March about 90 days after my wife first fell ill.  So no longer runs a temperature  and her blood O2 levels are up to 96-98 meter only goes to 99 so this is good.  But she has a post nasal drip that almost never ends. It makes its way into her lungs and she hacks up mucus on a daily basis.  My wife's first cousin a nurse in New York is being treated for corona-v as is her husband. They are over 60 so we worry for them.

  So yeah there is a lot of FUD in the USA, Lets assume it is a natural disease and that no evil doers did it.  It has yet to run its course in Italy or Spain in both of those countries it has been growing worse for 20-24 days.  So here in New York  and New Jersey it has been growing worse for 12 days.  So the next 12 days will be worse and the numbers above will be growing.

My suggestions to anyone any where.  Get food that keeps and store some as best you can. Figure a way to have water, soap and aspirin or Advil or Tylenol.

Hopefully things get better for everyone but I figure Mid april for my area maybe April 15th.

As for the Diff  it is going up as prices are stable at 6500-7000.

 Diff is up 18%

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March 27, 2020, 12:32:51 PM
 #206

Hope you all come out of this safely.  We are in Alabama and while not told to, sheltering in place.  Going to Dollar General for perishables about once a week but being very careful.

Just announced that schools are closed the remainder of the year and our kids will go to an elearning after spring break.

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March 27, 2020, 02:59:06 PM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 03:24:49 AM by frodocooper
 #207

Worried about the epoc post halving. Miners will drop off with 6.25 reward, slowing down network, making even less profitable. Could take months to get to next difficulty adjustment. Why would anybody mine at a loss, especially if more and more shut down as it slows down. Death spiral situation.

I don't understand why they just don't hard code difficulty cut at halving to keep the network going, then let the difficulty self adjust after that.
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March 27, 2020, 03:05:06 PM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 03:25:09 AM by frodocooper
 #208

Not an issue.  We won’t drop that much.  The worst case would be 20 to 30 days.

There are major players that will mine till the diff adjusts.

Would this happen over and over no. It would be a one shot deal.

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March 27, 2020, 03:17:33 PM
 #209

But as a miner, i can shut down my machines immediately after the halving and just wait for difficulty to drop 50+% at the next adjustment. This will save me massive amounts of electricity and money.

It's free market with tight margins, so everybody has incentive to shut down right after halving. The miners who stay on take on the burden of mining at a loss.

I think its definitely a big risk to the network, and can be easily fixed with modifying the code.
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March 27, 2020, 04:20:25 PM
 #210

But as a miner, i can shut down my machines immediately after the halving and just wait for difficulty to drop 50+% at the next adjustment. This will save me massive amounts of electricity and money.

It's free market with tight margins, so everybody has incentive to shut down right after halving. The miners who stay on take on the burden of mining at a loss.

I think its definitely a big risk to the network, and can be easily fixed with modifying the code.

Are you new to mining? Because it seems like you are.

There are a lot of people and big mining farms with really cheap or free electricity, and they aren't really mining at a loss.
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March 27, 2020, 04:27:59 PM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 03:26:04 AM by frodocooper
 #211

Getting people to agree to an emergency diff drop is not going to be easy.

We saw price drop from 10,000 to 3,900   then move to 6600

diff dropped 16%

and now that price is stable at 6600 diff is rising hard.  Your fear is not impossible .  But not likely to happen.

BTW  it does not hurt miners as much as hodlers.  Short term Traders  need v+v   volume and volatility .  miners need a mix of price power gear.  long term hodlers may have had there day in the sun.

The lowest price I saw BTC at was around 6 dollars.  a hold from 6 to 20,000 = 3333 x 1

This 3333 to 1 will never happen  at current price of 6600.  But this is a bit off the mark.

For your fear  we would need corona-v to become 10x worse then it will be  with all of us catching it and like 1 billion of us dying.
That would make enough fear no one would care about btc or crypto coins. lots of governments would fall things would be brutal all over.

BTC is too small for your problem to happen a hand full of rich guys would continue to mine no matter what.

1 acre solar farm can do 15kwatts 24/7
10 acre solar farm can do 150kwatts 24/7
100 acre solar farm can do 1500 kwatts 24/7
1000 acre solar farm can do 15000 kwatts 24/7

1 large dam can do the entire network.  You have voiced this fear more then once I don't think it will happen.

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March 27, 2020, 06:31:31 PM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 03:26:31 AM by frodocooper
 #212

No, Been mining a while. Will not be profitable after halving, and likely turning off machines at this price.

After halving mining revenue drops by 50% due to block reward reduction.
Unprofitable miners turn off machines, increasing time to find block.
Longer block times further reduces revenue for active miners, forcing more miners to turn off.
Longer block times increase EPOC duration, making difficulty adjustment further away.
Mempool get overloaded as too little miners with too high difficulty. Slowing or freezing transactions. (higher fees may counteract this)
No new miners join as difficulty is just to high, with little chance of finding blocks.

so on, and so on..

It's just a theory, possible, not probable. Price will also have major influence. If it does happen, i'm sure the next diff adjustment will put things back to normal, just don't now how long it will take.
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March 27, 2020, 06:37:00 PM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 03:26:49 AM by frodocooper
 #213

But isn't that when difficulty drops?  Or are you saying the amount of time until that drop will be much greater with less hashpower on the network?

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March 27, 2020, 07:07:22 PM
 #214

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0zMFfvXblA Excellent recent podcast with Preston Pysh, mostly about prices, volatility, trading and the money side but speculating on the gaming of halving and difficulty adjustment timings to level the playing field of amateur versus professional, as well as hiding bitcoin in a speculative cloak of volatility.

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March 27, 2020, 07:58:23 PM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 03:27:33 AM by frodocooper
 #215

No, Been mining a while. Will not be profitable after halving, and likely turning off machines at this price.

After halving mining revenue drops by 50% due to block reward reduction.
Unprofitable miners turn off machines, increasing time to find block.
Longer block times further reduces revenue for active miners, forcing more miners to turn off.
Longer block times increase EPOC duration, making difficulty adjustment further away.
Mempool get overloaded as too little miners with too high difficulty. Slowing or freezing transactions. (higher fees may counteract this)
No new miners join as difficulty is just to high, with little chance of finding blocks.

so on, and so on..

It's just a theory, possible, not probable. Price will also have major influence. If it does happen, i'm sure the next diff adjustment will put things back to normal, just don't now how long it will take.

You lack knowledge my friend...

You are throwing around "big" words about mining, but you either do not understand how it actually works or you are just attention seeker. I'll leave this conversation now.
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March 27, 2020, 11:03:02 PM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 03:28:58 AM by frodocooper
Merited by philipma1957 (2), favebook (2)
 #216

After halving mining revenue drops by 50% due to block reward reduction.

Only the block-rewards will drop by 50%, block rewards is not revenue, it is not even the most important element of mining revenue.

Unprofitable miners turn off machines, increasing time to find block.

Only valid for a maximum of any given 2016 blocks.

Longer block times further reduces revenue for active miners, forcing more miners to turn off.

Unprofitable miners can turn off their gears, come back after another 2016 blocks have been mined since difficulty will be a lot lower, so your argument is invalid.

Longer block times increase EPOC duration, making difficulty adjustment further away.

It's always a matter of 2016 blocks, the difficulty is based on that number the word "duration" makes no sense and changes nothing.

Mempool get overloaded as too little miners with too high difficulty. Slowing or freezing transactions. (higher fees may counteract this)

This does not affect miners, it affects senders.

No new miners join as difficulty is just to high, with little chance of finding blocks.

There is no need for new miners to join, a single miner can keep the blockchain going, whoever is profitable will stay, whoever mines at loss will leave and wait for either a drop in difficulty or a rise in price, if non of the above happens, it means there are ENOUGH miners and the economy of mining can't accept newcomers unless they 1- find a cheaper source of power 2- buy more efficient gears, rinse and repeat, this is not the first halving, not the last, 2 previous halvings went perfectly fine, what makes you think this one is going to be any different?

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March 28, 2020, 12:00:43 AM
Last edit: March 28, 2020, 01:04:11 PM by philipma1957
Merited by mikeywith (1)
 #217

Playing devil's advocate.  Corona-v mutates hits all the world in three waves.  Much Like the spanish flu did back in 2018-2019.  This is a new factor for the so called modern world with its vast inter continental supply chains. We kind of don't know how to rate it.

VALUE OF BLOCK REWARD TO TX FEES  changes again and each change it makes tx fees gain importance

if a block now its 12.5 + .5

and it goes to 6.25 + .5  that tx fee gains importance.

Personally I don't see his problem occurring this ½ ing.

He does not understand how much power is 'free'.
He does not understand many farms are simply used for load shedding for large dams during rainy season.
Also he does not understand the entire network uses less power then any major dam power plant.

Now using understand in the sentences above is a major presumption on my part. Maybe I am wrong and he is correct.  Which means I don't understand the dynamics correctly he does.

Well this gets settled soon.  I do expect this to be more like LTC was last year.  which did drop the diff a lot. and the price.   Once it recovered corona-v came along and fucked up everything in all markets all over the world.

I really want to stress this:

1  s17 pro pulls  2200 watts and does 53th  50 kwatts a day for 30 days = 1500 kwatts at 5 cents =75 dollars.
10 s17 pro         22000                      530th 500                                   = 15000                         = 750 dollars
100 s17 pro........220000....................5.3ph 5000............................... = 150000......................=7500 dollars
1000 s17 pro......2200000...................53ph  50000............................. = 1500000....................= 75000 dollars
10000 s17 pro....22000000..................530ph 500000...........................= 15000000 ................. =750000 dollars
100000 s17 pro...22000000..................5,3eh 5000000......................... =150000000............... = 7,500,000 dollars
1000000 s17 pro.220000000................53eh   50000000 ..................... = 1500000000............. = 75,000,000 dollars

so the power bill for 53 eh if all s17 pro and network took a month to hit a new adjustment is 75 million if it is 5 cent power.

This problem is solved by spending 75 million in power for a month.  There are more then one company that would do this .  and you would still earn some coins so  while there would be a loss it would be a one time event.  Major companies have big solar fields  mining they will continue to mine many companies have 1 and 2 cent power not 5 cent power.  We would need a huge drop off of hash more then 50% to go past the 30 day example I am showing.

So I don't think it is a big fear. It could happen but corona-v10x could happen in 5 years and who gives a shit about btc or crypto coins at all.

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March 28, 2020, 02:47:16 AM
 #218

I really want to stress this:

1  s17 pro pulls  2200 watts and does 53th  50 kwatts a day for 30 days = 1500 kwatts at 5 cents =75 dollars.
10 s17 pro         22000                      530th 500                                   = 15000                         = 750 dollars
100 s17 pro........220000....................5.3ph 5000............................... = 150000......................=7500 dollars
1000 s17 pro......2200000...................53ph  50000............................. = 1500000....................= 75000 dollars
10000 s17 pro....22000000..................530ph 500000...........................= 15000000 ................. =750000 dollars
100000 s17 pro...22000000..................5,3eh 5000000......................... =150000000............... = 7,500,000 dollars
1000000 s17 pro.220000000................53eh   50000000 ..................... = 1500000000............. = 75,000,000 dollars

Phill you don't really have to go out of your way to explain to the said member how keeping the blockchain alive can be done at any level without the need for much power/money, I have a simpler example that I always tell to those who lack understanding of basic mining concepts and scream "Oh mining is going to die after price hit x in price", "the cost of mining 1 BTC < what it's worth", " the halving will kill mining".

I have free power at home, I can have at least 1*S9 run forever with 0 loss, and that alone can keep the mining operation going, that miner has already been paid for, cost me nothing to run, I got a few spare PSUs and fans and two internet connections not counting the 4g on my phone,I got a 5kw diesel generator, 4*100amh batteries and a 1.5kw inverter, so myself alone can maintain the blockchain for a good period of time. Grin

I personally know of AT LEAST 50ph that run on absolutely free electricity, that number is pretty small, but it's only what I know, what I don't know is most likely a thousand-time more, miners with free power will be the last line of defense, they will only leave once 1 BTC = 0, so at 10$ BTC and block rewards is  0.39 BTC ( 5 halvings from now) they will still mine bitcoin, and the rest is just noise.

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philipma1957 (OP)
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March 30, 2020, 07:37:53 PM
Last edit: March 31, 2020, 02:11:41 AM by frodocooper
 #219

Basically I can mine at a loss of 100 a month for years.
I would run a s17 pro till it broke.
then unbox another s17 pro till it broke.

Us miners would be like the Cubans were with the 1950s american cars 🚙.



We are about +5% diff due about april 7-9

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

price around 6300

Maybe we drift sideways rest of this jump

At +5%  we would need 3 jumps to reach all time diff high again.

½ ing due may https://www.bitcoinsensus.com/bitcoin-halving-countdown/

from May 8 to May 14

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philipma1957 (OP)
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March 31, 2020, 11:58:29 PM
Last edit: April 01, 2020, 10:33:13 AM by frodocooper
Merited by stompix (1), Last of the V8s (1)
 #220

Fast updates

wife still coughing due to endless post nasal drip 💧 all caused by pneumonia in early jan.
i am fully recovered from this.
we suspect we had the corona-v then.

my wifes first cousin in Long Island New York and her husband have been released from hospital.
they had it and are recovering. they are both over 60.
she is a practicing nurse 👩‍⚕️.

we have a second cousin in Connecticut he has a mild version of it and is recovered. He was 50.
we have another second cousin in Connecticut her husband is in intensive care with it. an induced coma and a ventilator .   people in this spot die a lot. he is maybe 50-50 to live.

New Jersey New York and connecticut are   about 1/2 as bad as they are supposed to get.

So wherever you are  get masks gloves food water and be prepped for it to come to you.
here in NJ we may end up having 4-6 weeks restricted movement.

I try to shop for food 2 x a week.
I drop packages at fedex once a week.
I gassed the car 🚘 and try to not drive much at all.

as for diff.
we have not traveled to the farm in clifton since january.
a few small units are off line. 3 s9 and 1 L3+ but 2ph sha 256 and 10.5gh ltc on line.

we also did not bring the new s17+ online to the main farm.
buysolar is running it off his solar array.
we did not get the avalon a1066 pro gear to demo.
we wont be adding gear ⚙️ until a while.

diff is up 4-5% I suspect a lot of areas are waiting to see what this corona-v does to world 🌍 so many will not expand until may or later.

and then the 1/2 comes.

By the way.   bsv and bch do 1/2 ing very soon. this could bump btc diff.

three s9s one l3+ off line after sixty days of runtime with out hands on is pretty good.

all bigger gears are running.

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 MΞTAWIN  THE FIRST WEB3 CASINO   
.
.. PLAY NOW ..
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