It is 2020 time for a new diff thread.

[favebook]

I would love to see 9400 stay around for a few weeks. it will drop the diff a bit.

I hope so too. I sold most of my ETH and BTC near ATH of both, now want to go back in .

[1713262288]

1713262288

[1713262288]

1713262288

[1713262288]

1713262288

[1713262288]

1713262288

[philipma1957]

Very close to -1%

Latest Block:   647012  (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.7469%  (1893 / 1917.02 expected, 24.02 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   16947802333946.61
Current Difficulty:   17557993035167.3
Next Difficulty:   between 17351202645555 and 17351963380329
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.1778% and -1.1734%
Previous Retarget:   August 24, 2020 at 4:19 AM  (+3.6004%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:34 AM  (in 0d 20h 44m 39s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:35 AM  (in 0d 20h 45m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 14m 52s and 14d 4h 15m 49s

over last 30 days
btc price at $10,179.00 a big drop from 12,305

over last 30 days
dow was      29,100  dropped to 28,133
nasdaq was  12,056 dropped  to 11,313
S&P.     was   3,543  dropped. to   3,426

Gold was 2060 dropped to 1934
silver was 29.14   dropped to 24.76 but is now 26.94

So the Dollar rallied last few days.

This is why I stick to diff calc's and not price calc's

[mikeywith]

I am glad to be the first person to report the massive -1.2% drop in bitcoin mining difficulty. 

Latest Block:   647138  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   120.7011%  (3 / 2.49 expected, 0.51 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   17557993035167.3
Current Difficulty:   17345997805929.09
Previous Retarget:   Today at 3:40 PM  (-1.2074%)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 11d 14h 22m 24s and 13d 23h 49m 43s

We had 20% drop in bitcoin price, and only 1.2% drop in diffiuclty, this has to do with the fact that difficulty doesn't adjust fast enouh, if we could keep the current price levels then I expect to us a 3-4% drop in difficulty for the next adjusment.

Current critical suppurt for BTC price is the 21weekly MA which is right at $9933, in the past couple of years everytime we closed below that we dipped another 20-30% which means the 7k levels, but let's wait and see, overall, things look pretty bearish for the short-term for makets mainly due to the U.S elections, post election IMO will be bullish for all markets.

This should keep difficulty at check, small drops of 1-2-3-4-5% all the way to after the elections is what I expect.

[philipma1957]

Or BTC moons like a mofo to 13k then 17k then 20k then ath of 25K.  driving the diff way up past  20t.

[mikeywith]

I won't complain if that happens, although I prefer lower price and more BTC rather than higher price and lower BTC income, I think bitcoin price has much more room to grow than the hashrate does, I am almost sure that a few years later even very old gears of 100w/th and above will be profitable to mine with, by simply looking at the hashrate vs price, you can see how possible that is.

[philipma1957]

Most asic builders are now selling one of psu's

The t15 and s15  psu sold out. I had a spare  So I saved 28th

The t17 t17e t17+ s17 s17pro s17e s17+  psu's are sold out.   I have a spare  just 1

you can get s19 s19 pro t19 psu

My 39th innosilcon psu is sold out I have a dead 39th

My 50th avalon a1066 psu is sold out I have a dead 50th

both my whatsminer m20s psu died I got spares.

so I lost 89 th to dead psu's this summer and can not replace them.

I saved 136 in whatsminer m20s
I saved 28th in s15
I did replace 164th with spare psu's

I do have 1 s17 psu spare.

Point is this all serves to keep diff lower.

And you need to decide how many spare psu's to buy when they are still in stock.

All of the above has pushed me to get some gpu's vs asics.

[mikeywith]

What I like about this topic is that we go into very deep details, I am sure most miners miss out on these critical points, sadly I haven't been thought this lesson by anyway and I had to learn it the hard way, one thing I learned is that you must always try to own the same gears, by "same gears" I don't mean the exact same model but at least models that use the same control board, PSU and fans.

Eventually, you will either lose a hashboard or a PSU, if you have 10 different mining gears, then you must buy 10 different spare PSUs, 10 fans, 10 control boards, etc, this does not make any sense economically, compare that to someone who has 50 gears of the same kind, in the worst-case scenario, they don't even need to get any spares, eventually when 3 boards are dead you end up with 2/4 fans, 1 PSU and 1 control board, so by limiting the number of different miners you can always be prepared for when the spare parts go out of stock.

[vapourminer]

control boards i get, but arent PSUs and fans more or less bog standard across the mining space? like 8 pin power and 120/140 mm screamer fans, maybe different fan connectors but easy fix no? 3/4 pin is the same even if different order for pwr/gnd/pwm/tach or whatever?

[favebook]

Fans? Yes, mostly.

PSUs? Hell no. They vary by every producer and even model by model. Just look at 17th generation of Antminer series: APW9 (S17, S17 Pro and T17) and APW9+ (S17e, T17e, S17+, T17+). Then there is S19, S19 Pro, T19 with APW12.  They all can vary by Wattage, dimensions, connectors and many more things. S9s were easy because you could literally use any PSU with enough PCIe connectors. But after S9, everything changed.

Innosilicon also has different PSUs for every model or almost every model afaik.

[philipma1957]

psu's used to be interchangeable.

they are not.

well they are less interchangeable.

My 68th m20s psu died.  I sourced a direct replacement oem from hmtech.co. it came as model p21 not p20 it is a bit more powerful. it has an id chip and direct talks to the control board.  So In order to make the gear work I had to upgrade the firmware so the unit would recognize the psu.

Now the control board only will use psu p21.

https://pangolinminer.com/product/power-supply-unit-m10s/

it is in stock and works on 3 different miners. I have 2 m20s and 1 m21s. So I have to think is it worth it to buy  a spare or hope that they are still in stock when the psu dies.

it is easy for me to have purchased a s17 psu I have 17 s17 pro and 1 s17. I have 1 spare. and once I use it  I have no access to any more.

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020200403105249382Ow2fHTq80690

the 1 spare I have will work on my
2x   t17
1x   s17
17x s17 pro.   20 units only 1 spare  more then 1050th

my
1x innosilisicon. t2 30th no spare
1x innosilisicon t3  39th no spare no source I lost it or 39th
1x innosilisicon t3 50th no spare but I think I can source it at hmtec.co

my whatsminer

2 m10
2 m20s
1 m21s I think I can source from hmtech.co

my Avalon
2x 1047
2x 1066.  no spares no source   I lost a a1066 or 50th

So for me if I buy asics for btc it should be t17 or s17 or s17pro as I have a spare and may be able to source another

but those Avalons and those innos = no psu's available.

so eventually I will lose them.

[Searing]

er..I know folk with PSU's ...not sure if that is what you mean..lots and lots....

brad

edit: unless you mean no 'workaround' for the built in psu's and single bus?

[philipma1957]

yeah no work around. this is the outcome for the gear now.

they learned with the s9 and truly have made you commit to one or two models and order spare psus.

[NotFuzzyWarm]

er..I know folk with PSU's ...not sure if that is what you mean..lots and lots....
brad
edit: unless you mean no 'workaround' for the built in psu's and single bus?

Ja. The problem lies with the built-in ones.
Old way was to feed in 12vdc and then go through a Vcore regulator on each board to feed the strings. Problem is that final regulator gives ~2-5% efficiency hit per-board. Solution is to use the PSU itself to do the regulation by making it programmable. That in it itself was responsible for a large part of better miner efficiency these days.

That also let mfgrs make longer strings of chips because a custom PSU can put out whatever voltage is spec'd. Gee - shades of Bitfury who used to use boards with strings long enough to take either 24 or 48v feeds... As I recall the Bitmains range from 15 to over 20vdc depending on the model. As always, using higher voltage (to feed longer strings) while pulling the same current per-chip is a win-win.

Only main glitch to that is that all the different PSU's respond differently to the signal the control board provides to set the output voltage. Should be a piece of cake for a mfgr to standardize that across their models but noooooo....

[philipma1957]

I tested quite  a few pieces of different gear since they did the 'locked' in style of psu's.

I settled on bitmain t17 s17 s17pro as best for my setup. and I have 20 of them total and 1 spare psu.

these all work fine after 16 to 9 months of usage

But the scattered  gear below  is annoying.

whatsminer
m10's
m20's
m21's  should be 246th is 190th and I have purchased 4 psus

avalon
a1047
a1066 should be 160 2 of each but  is 110 a dead a1066 due to psu

innosicion
t2 30th
t3 39th dead due to psu
t3 50th should be  119 is 80

almost every piece of gear above is pushed too hard. which kills the psu.

so the gear with issues should be 525th and is 380th  so  a loss of 145th

I am not the only miner with these issues.  this partially keeps the diff in check.

The issues above made me decide to get some gpus I spent 4000 in gpu to mine alts to convert to etc.

I use less power and I mine more coin. I have a 3 year gpu warranty and six months to pay with PayPal.

I mention this because in sept of 2017 I was typing very much the same words on older threads.

Then the rally hit.

so math shows 15 cards at 267 cost 4000 they will mine at 600mh for eth and use about 2000 watts.

add 3 mobos with cpus and ram 465 on ebay

4465+ 3 cheap coolers = 60 so for 4525 3 year warranty  six months to pay use 2000 watts

so the 2000 watts earns about 24.60

now buy 2 s19's for 4525 they use 6000 watts 17.01

This is a huge hedge factor.

As a miner do I buy 4525 in gpus and mine eth spend 2000 watts. earn 24 a day.

or do I buy 4600 in s19 pros and miner btc spend 6000 watts. earn 17 a day.

we have not seen this pro favor  gpu ratio since 2017.

These are very much pushing me at gpus.

Since I am a coalition miner and will mine any coin with btc/ltc/doge my key coins it is easy for me to shift new money at gpus.

Gpu dies =warranty
mobo dies = all kinds of cheap replacements
psu dies= my mobos work with get this apw3+ psus

Now I know history does not always repeat
and I know past performance does not guarantee future performance.
but it is unloading just like it did in 2017

just saying.

[mikeywith]

It looks like the price drop didn't have any effect on difficulty.

Current Pace:   111.0642%  (1121 / 1009.33 expected, 111.67 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   17557993035167.3
Current Difficulty:   17345997805929.09
Next Difficulty:   between 18865731348737 and 19280381704375
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.7613% and +11.1518%

Did bitmain deliver some of the pending S19/S19+ orders? hitting a new ATH with BTC price stuck in the 10k levels suggests that some people have got their hands on a large order of the latest gears.

What are the chances that Micree Zhan is actually mining with all the gears which they were supposed to ship? we know Micree Zhan control the manufacturer and warehouses, while Jihan Wu controls the headquarters and all the finance-related stuff, so if Micree has the gears and can't sell them on the official website, what stops him from using them to generate BTC or simply sell them directly to some local Chinese farms?

[philipma1957]

Well he would need a lot of power and infrastructure to stealth mine.

          110th =         3 k-watts         1 machine
   110,000th =   3,000 k-watts  1,000 machines
1,100,000th = 30,000 k-watts 10,000 machines this is also 1,100 ph or 1.1eh. and 1.1eh is only .9% diff jump

so it would need to be 100,000 s19pro's

if I recall correctly those big orders are for 18,000 s19 pro's

let me see if I missed a zero.

1 = 110th
10 = 1100th or 1.1 ph
100 = 11000th or 11ph
1000 = 110000th or 110ph
10000 = 1100000th or 1.1eh
100000 = 11000000th or 11eh

and 11 eh would be a 9% jump . I am not sure this is just bitmain adding gear. They could have done some of it but I think whatsminer must have sold a lot of gear.

bit deer is bitmain maybe they are selling the contracts below.

https://www.bitdeer.com/pricing

[Biffa]

It looks like the price drop didn't have any effect on difficulty.

Did bitmain deliver some of the pending S19/S19+ orders? hitting a new ATH with BTC price stuck in the 10k levels suggests that some people have got their hands on a large order of the latest gears.

Yes, S19 and S19-Pro started being delivered last week.

[Biffa]

[2020-09-20 12:34:04.194+10] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=649152 delta=11.35% new=19314656404097.0 prev=17345997805929.1

Ugh.. 11.35% jump

[philipma1957]

Yeah. big move up.  we are now over 140eh. about 143 to be more accurate.  which was a jump from around 129 eh

so 14eh was added or

14000ph or

14000000th. which is 127,272 s19pros. that is a lot of gear

the oct s19 pros are 2407 each. so 2407 x 127,272 = 306,343,704 in sales

[mikeywith]

[2020-09-20 12:34:04.194+10] workinfo_add(): DIFF CHANGE: hi=649152 delta=11.35% new=19314656404097.0 prev=17345997805929.1

Ugh.. 11.35% jump

That's one hell of a jump given the price crash we had recently.

At this point mining with 6 cents per kwh hardly makes any profit on anything that is less effienct than the S19, heck even the S19 pro makes only 3.9$ a day at 6 cents, and 5.5$ daily at 4 cents, not sure in which universe does the maths for paying $3500 for an S19 pro actually work.